Renewable Energy as a Viable Option in the Bangladesh Electricity · PDF file ·...
Transcript of Renewable Energy as a Viable Option in the Bangladesh Electricity · PDF file ·...
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Renewable Energy as a Viable Option in the Bangladesh Electricity Portfolio
Institution of Engineers Bangladesh 23 March 2011 Dhaka, Bangladesh
Prof. Saifur Rahman Virginia Tech, Washington, DC
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DHAKA, Mar 13: Bangladesh has set a target to produce 500 MW of electricity to reduce greenhouse emissions and ensure sustainable development in energy sector. It also plans to install solar irrigation system to cut diesel cost.
Newspaper Report
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Where does this target fit in the overall power generation sector in Bangladesh?
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Power Genera/on mix in Bangladesh
n Natural Gas n Oil n Coal n Hydro n Renewables – solar and wind?
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Solar Photovoltaics
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World and EU PV markets in 2009 (MW)
Source: Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics Until 2014. May, 2010
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/public/Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_until_2014.pdf
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Source: Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics Until 2014. May, 2010
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/public/Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_until_2014.pdf
Regional PV distribu/on in the World (Policy-‐Driven scenario)
Annual Additions
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Solar PV Applica/ons
n Grid connected applications n Remote area applications n Building Integrated PV (BIPV)
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100 kW Grid-‐connected Project in China
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Remote Area PV Project in Bangladesh
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Roof-‐top solar photovoltaic panels, Japan
Source: Energybiz Magazine
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BIPV in Thailand
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Source: Solartron, Thailand
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Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
Solar Electricity in Bangladesh
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Solar Home Ligh/ng Ac/vi/es
Source: Grameen Shakti
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Community Center in Dhamrai, Dhaka
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Garment Factories in Ashulia
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Solar Panels for Garment Factory Ligh/ng
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Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
Why some countries are more successful than others ?
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Programs to encourage renewables penetra/on
Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Feed-in Tariff (FIT)
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Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
State regulators mandate certain percentage of renewables mix in generation For Example, California 2020: 20% non-hydro renewables mix by 2020 EU: 20-20-20 (RE-EE-CO2)
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RPS in Bangladesh
Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
Solar electricity support REB requirements: 10% for industrial customers
7% for commercial customers 3% for residential customers
DESA/DPDC/DESCO requirements:
3% for residential
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Feed-‐in Tariff (FIT)
Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
FIT is a renewable energy policy that offers guaranteed payments to renewable energy developers for the electricity they produce FITs are responsible for approximately 75% of global PV and 45% of global wind deployment
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United States Incentives/Policies for Renewable Energy
Federal and few state programs
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US Federal Incen/ves for RE
Source: Interna-onal Energy Agency (IEA Sta-s-cs 2007 data, available as of September 2010)
Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC):
• Commercial and industrial sectors • Amount: 2.2¢/kWh for wind; 1.1¢/kWh for other eligible
technologies. Generally applies to first 10 years of operation. • Carryover Provisions: Unused credits may be carried forward
for up to 20 years following the year they were generated U.S. Department of Treasury - Renewable Energy Grants:
• Amount: 30% of capital subsidy for solar and small wind • Ends 12/31/2010
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European Union Incentives/Policies for Renewable Energy
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Germany: Feed-‐In Tariffs
Cost plus profit model (Fixed FIT Policy):
- Average grid-supplied domestic electricity price: $0.29/kWh
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Asia Incentives/Policies for Renewable Energy
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India: Feed-‐In Tariffs (Launched -‐ 2009)
Cost plus profit model: Examples: West Bengal: Solar PV @ $0.25/kWh; PPA for 15 years Haryana: Solar PV @ $0.34/kWh; PPA for 5 years Rajasthan: Solar PV @ $0.35/kWh; CSP @ $0.31/kWh Tamil Nadu: CSP @ $0.27/kWh; Wind @ $0.08/kWh Average grid-supplied domestic electricity price: $0.08/kWh
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Thailand: Feed-‐In Tariffs (Launched 2006)
Avoided cost + Premium (called an “adder”):
- Total FIT = 0.12 +0.34 = $0.46/kwh - Average grid-supplied domestic electricity price: $0.12/kWh
Energy Source
AdderAdditional for
diesel offsetting areas
Additional for 3
southern provinces
Duration(Years)
Wind [USD/kWh] [USD/kWh] [USD/kWh] <= 50 kW 0.13 0.05 0.05 10 > 50 kW 0.10 0.05 0.05 10 Solar 0.24 0.05 0.05 10
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China: Feed-‐In Tariffs
- Wind tariffs based on resource intensity $0.08–0.09/kWh - Average grid-supplied domestic electricity price: $0.05/kWh
Roof-‐top $ 2.26/WattBIPV $3.01/Watt
Grid-‐connected 50% of total project costOff-‐grid 70% of total project cost
FIT for Solar PV -‐ 2010 Auction-‐based price discovery
BIPV capital subsidy (> 50 kW): 2009-‐2011 -‐ PHASING OUT
Golden Sun capital subsidy (> 300 kW): 2009-‐2011 -‐ PHASING OUT
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Key Market Strategies
n Price Support/Policies • Tax Subsidies • Min Fixed Payment Prices • Mandates (Renewable Portfolio Standards)
n Cost Reductions/Balance of Systems
n New Technologies
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Opportunities in Bangladesh
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Solar opportuni/es in Bangladesh
n Health clinics, schools, community centers n Mul/-‐family solar home based AC electricity supply
n Street lights n Solar water pumping – DC motor n Microgrid – mul/-‐kW free-‐standing grids n Photovoltaic power genera/on for na/onal grid
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Lessons Learned from other Countries
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Genera/ng Capacity Thailand, 2009
Hydro, 11%
Import; 2.2%
Oil, 13%
Lignite/Coal, 12%
Gas; 56%
Diesel, 0.3%
Renewable; 2.4%
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Already
Commission-ed
PPA signed waiting for
COD
Approved waiting for PPA sign
Under consideration
process
TOTAL (MW)
Solar Energy 7.7 MW 1,331.9 MW 398.4 MW 637.6 MW 2,375.6 MW
(51) (291) (94) (135)
Biogas 43.0 MW 69.2 MW 44.8 MW 61.6 MW 218.6 MW
(41) (32) (31) (21)
Biomass 287.8 MW 1,495.9 MW 213.4 MW 413.7 MW 2,410.8 MW
(53) (201) (36) (65)
Municipal Waste 10.8 MW 96.4 MW 59.5 MW 120.6 MW 287.3 MW
(8) (14) (13) (20)
Small, Mini and Micro Hydro
0.5 MW 1.3 MW 5.0 MW 0.0 MW 6.8 MW
(3) (5) (1) (1)
Wind Energy 0.4 MW 25.0 MW 17.8 MW 85.3 MW 128.5 MW
(3) (5) (7) (13)
GRAND TOTAL 350.2 MW 3,019.6 MW 738.8 MW 1,318.8 MW 5,427.6 MW
Thai EGAT’s Power Development Plan 2010
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Power Genera/on Mix in Ten Years
n Natural Gas n Coal n Renewables n Nuclear ?? Success of renewables will need policy support including buy-‐down programs Most important: Customer must believe in renewables
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Thank you
Saifur Rahman
Email: [email protected]
www.saifurrahman.org