Renewable Energies in the MENA Region: Potential for ... Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans

download Renewable Energies in the MENA Region: Potential for ... Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans

of 23

  • date post

    15-Oct-2020
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    0
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Renewable Energies in the MENA Region: Potential for ... Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Renewable Energies in the MENA Region: Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision and Export to Europe

    Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR)

    TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSPMED-CSPMED-CSP AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    IFEED

    Project Partners

    German Aerospace Center (Germany) National Energy Research Center (Jordan) University of Aden, (Yemen) University of Sana’a, (Yemen) University of Bahrain, (Bahrain) Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, formerly at CNR (Morocco) Intern. Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (Germany) Kernenergien – The Solar Power Company (Germany) Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (Germany) Deutsche Gesellschaft Club of Rome (Germany) House of Water and Environment (Palestine) Center for Solar Energy Studies (Libya) Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables (Morocco) University of Bremen (Germany) New Energy Algeria (Algeria) New and Renewable Energy Authority (Egypt) Hamburg Institute of International Economics (Germany) Honorat Satoguina MASDAR (Abu Dhabi)

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    50 countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies

    Scandinavia Western Europe Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Western Asia North Africa Arabian Peninsula

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Parameters considered in the analyses

    Annual electricity demand Annual load curve Available fossile and renewable resources Existing power plants in 2000 and their expected lifetime Cost of fossil fuels (oriented at IEA Scenario) Maximum production growth rates of RE industries Existing grid infrastructure 100% power availability Peaking power demand and 25 % reserve capacity Sustainability criteria Opportunities of financing Policies and energy economic boundary conditions

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    Year

    G ro

    ss E

    le ct

    ric ity

    C on

    su m

    pt io

    n TW

    h/ a

    Turkey Spain Portugal Malta Italy Greece Tunisia Morocco Libya Egypt Algeria Yemen UAE Syria Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Lebanon Kuwait Jordan Israel Iraq Iran Cyprus Bahrain

    Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency

    Historical Data

    First Slowdown: Efficiency Gains & Liberalisation

    Second Slowdown: Demand Stabilisation

    Gross electricity demand in the analysed MENA countries

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Gross electricity demand in the analysed European countries Switzerland Norway Iceland Bosnia-Herzegowina Serbia & Montenegro Romania Macedonia Bulgaria Turkey Sweden Croatia Finland Greece Hungary Slowenia Slowac Republic Czech Republic Poland Italy Ireland United Kingdom Denmark Germany Netherlands Luxembourg Belgium Austria France Portugal Spain

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

    G ro

    ss E

    le ct

    ric ity

    C on

    su m

    pt io

    n TW

    h/ y

    Scenario TRANS-CSPHistorical Data

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    Year

    E le

    ct ric

    ity P

    ro du

    ct io

    n in

    T W

    h/ y

    Deficit Old Plants

    Electricity production of power plants already existing in 2000 and deficit to be covered by new plants until 2050, in the European countries analysed within TRANS-CSP

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Biomass (1)

    Wind (50)

    Geothermal (1)

    Hydropower (50)

    Solar (250)

    A solar power plant of the size of Lake Nasser equals the total Middle East oil production

    Renewable energy resources in Europe and MENA

    In brackets: (max. yield in GWhel / km² /y)

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Area Required to Provide the Electricity Demand of the World, EU-25 and Germany

    WORLD EU-25 GER

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Planta Solar 10 MW, SevilleSEGS 350 MW, California

    Novatec Lorca

    Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix

    Solar Thermal Power Plants

    Nevada Solar I, 64 MW

    MAN/SPG Almeria

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Solar Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants

    Source: EU-IP NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    19 80

    19 85

    19 90

    19 95

    20 00

    20 05

    20 10

    20 15

    20 20

    20 25

    20 30

    20 35

    20 40

    20 45

    20 50

    Year

    So la

    r E le

    ct ric

    ity C

    os t[

    ct /k

    W h]

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    In st

    al le

    d C

    ap ac

    ity [G

    W ]

    SEGS Cost CSP Cost Spain CSP Cost Egypt Worldwide Installed CSP Capacity

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    16000

    Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050

    El ec

    tri ci

    ty in

    T W

    h/ y

    Solar Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Wave/Tide Desalination MENA Europe

    Economic renewable electricity potentials vs. demand in Europe and MENA

    > 630000

    ?

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Options for solar electricity transfer over 3000 km distance

    Solar Power Transfer by:

    Hydrogen AC / HVAC HVDC Line

    Losses 75 % 45 % / 25 % 10 %

    Cost very high high low

    Adaptation to Consumers (Transformer)

    has to be transformed to AC first

    directly transformable

    has to be transformed to AC first

    Over Sea Transport

    by tankers or pipelines

    not over 30 km standard solution

    Visibility Impact very low high low

    Materials and Emissions

    moderate moderate low

    Preferred Application

    eventually fuel for transport

    regional and local power

    long distance power transfer

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Concept of a EU-MENA Renewable Energy Link Using HVDC Power Transmission Technology

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    Analysed Examples for EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection

    3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y = 105 TWh/y

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

    350 45

    245 31

    134 16

    42 5

    Investment CSP Billion € HVDC

    50 x 50 3600 x 1.0

    40 x 40 3600 x 0.7

    30 x 30 3600 x 0.4

    15 x 15 3100 x 0.1

    Land Area CSP km x km HVDC

    70047023060Transfer TWh/y

    20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Capacity GW

    2050204020302020Year

    Scenario for total EU-MENA HVDC interconnection 2020 – 2050 *

    * All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year

    Fr es

    hw at

    er D

    ef ic

    it [b

    ill io

    n m

    ³/y ]

    Bahrain Yemen UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Oman Iran Iraq Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Palestine Egypt Libya Tunisia Algeria Morocco

    Expected Water Deficits by Country

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    MED: Multi-Effect-Distillation; RO: Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination

    MED

    Solar Field Storage

    Power Plant

    Water Power

    fuel solar heat

    heat

    Combined Heat & Power

    RO

    Solar Field Storage

    Power Plant

    Water Power

    fuel solar heat

    Power Only

    Solar Field Storage

    MED

    fuel

    solar heat

    Water Power

    grid

    Heat Only

    Concentrating Solar Thermal Power for Seawater Desalination (Options)

  • Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 206