Reliably Predicting the Future

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Hybrid Approaches to Understanding Consumer Behavior

A symposium created for all those whose job it is to create products that generate

emotional responses in people


Actively Imagining the FutureLinda Ettinger Lieberman, M.Ed.

Dvora Chaiet, B.S.Howard R. Moskowitz, Ph.D.

Moskowitz Jacobs Inc.White Plains, NY USA

IFT Chicago, 2013

Structuring the Leap into the FutureTwo ways

• Choice – guess – create

• Guess – watch trends and passively report– Sense, perceive, intuit, report– Have to be pretty perceptive and smart

• Create – grab components and actively plan– Intellectual history – psychophysics

• Experimental Psychology• Do The Experiment

– At a more operational level• Array stimuli into potential products, communication• Get response• Create the future (sometimes)


Creating a Development Structure (Machine)Doing it

• Worldview – Identify components: Features of products, Actions of

people– Mix and match– Get responses: Rating Scales – Deconstruct into Elements

• Mixmaster of ideas – experimental design• Delivery system – Mind Genomics® IdeaMap®.net• Evaluator – the respondent/person• Analyzer – ordinary least-squares regression• Implementer – typing wizard facilitated by

discriminant function analysis


The processSimple, streamlined, speedy, scalable


Mind Genomics® Science

DEVELOP SURVEY STIMULI AND QUESTIONSProduct/Service/topic to bestudied

GENERATE SURVEY DATA & DETERMINE THE RESULTS

INTERNET invitationOrients respondents

Mind Genomics IdeaMap®.netSUY

IDENTIFY THE TARGET MARKET

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

No more paper mail – we will send you copies of statements by secure e-mail

Securely manage your account by PDA, Internet of automated telephone

Our banks customer services reps will help browse & use our on-line services

Manage all your banking needs with a state of the art kiosk and be confident that live help is available if you need it





MARKET SEGMENTATION SEGMENTATION WIZARDMARKETING PHRASES

SURVEY

CREATING STUFF


Stuff … making PRODUCTS FOR today & tomorrowDeveloping a New Product Category

• Silos from different product areas• Elements in silos - alternative options• Mix/shuffle - combining elements from

different worlds• Mix/match to create new to the world product• Example: work with Oral-B™ on power

brushing … combining elements from toothbrush and machine cleaning


DRIVING BEHAVIOR


The mind – understanding the mind at a profound, yet business level

Imagine …• A shopper walking down the aisle• Turning the corner• Coming to YOUR category• All of a sudden …. digital signage says

– What to buy– Convincing health reasons to buy– In the language … the words … the tonality optimized for the customer

• Do you think you can create a healthier customer by optimizing the right message … for the right person…

at the right time?

Behavior – Driving charitable donations

• Move away from products• Now strictly behavior• Mixing behavior suggestions works • Here we are purely external – donate• American Heart Association

donations went up 42%


Driving medical / dietary compliance• Move away from person focused outside• Now deal with health, i.e. compliance• Situation – congestive heart failure• What do you SAY to a person to increase their compliance after

discharge from hospital?• Mix/shuffle ideas, segmentation compliance message• Result: Dramatic reduction in penalized readmission (<31 days)


DRIVING PURCHASE


What could we do if we knew…

• WHAT WORKS: For any product …We knew what messages worked … for any market, for any time,

any place• BASIC GROUPS (PRIMARIES … REDS, BLUES, YELLOWS)

We know that there are basically different groups … Who like different things … for any specific product

• HOW TO IDENTIFY… For any person we encounter, anywhere … we know the group or primary to which that person belongs … for any specific product

• Isn’t this what we’ve just done for ... PRODUCT ... for BEHAVIOR?


So many products, so many choices, so what?

Identifying …for any specific product or service … the particular segment to which a customer belongs: in 10-15 seconds by asking a few simple questions.

That as a person shops, that person can receive information about healthful products … either at time when shopping begins … Or when the person is near the product … GUESS WHAT? IT’S HERE!

Imagine…


That information presented in a way that is tailored to the ‘heart and mind’ of that individual … STAY TUNED

With the result that the person eats healthfully, and… at the same time sales are up ... say by 10% or more

Just to review the processIt’s still the same

DEVELOP SURVEY STIMULI AND QUESTIONS

ProspectiveC customers

ANALYZE SURVEY RESULTS→ Mind Genomics® & Mind-typing

INTERNET invitationMind Genomics ®

IdeaMap®.netSURVEY

IDENTIFY YOUR TARGET MARKET

Total Sample

Seg 1 Self Driven Online

Banking Seekers

Seg 2 Technology/

High Security Seekers

Seg 3 Collaborative

Online Seekers

Seg 4 Personal Touch with Technology

Base Size: (267) (105) (50) (59) (53) Constant: 31 34 28 31 26

OC1 Connect online in 'real time' with a customer rep via instant messaging, voice over IP or video conferencing via your computer 0 2 2 5 -13

OC3 Faster loan application process…work in real time online with a loan officer 0 0 -8 12 -8

OC4 Our bank's customer service reps will help you browse and use our online banking services -1 0 -6 10 -10

OC2 Use our online tool to find and schedule at your convenience an online working session with an expert such as investment broker, insurance agent, and/or loan officer -3 1 -11 6 -12

ON3 We will answer all your requests in 'real time' by email, instant or text messaging 1 7 -11 3 -1

ON4 We offer 'On demand' status reports for services requests (e.g., loan application) delivered to you via e-mail, text or instant messaging

1 6 -4 -3 0ON2 No more paper mail... We will send you statements and images of

transactions securely by email -2 5 -17 -5 2ON1 We allow you to pay bills securely using your mobile devices (cell

phone, PDA, Blackberry, etc.) -4 2 -13 -9 -2

BR3 We offer a bank-issued smart card so we can recognize you entering the branch and process your needs faster 4 2 6 -3 13

BR4 Choose a secure eye or finger security scan to identify you immediately in-branch and at ATM 4 3 10 -1 3

BR2 We have the most secure biometric system that identifies you as you enter the branch so we can process your needs faster 2 -1 8 -5 6

BR1 We will recognize our customer's mobile phone signal when entering a branch so we can recommend appropriate bank products, promotions and special services -4 -3 -6 -11 2

Online Collaborative

Online Other

In-Branch Recognition









MARKET SEGMENTATION SEGMENTATION WIZARDMARKETING PHRASES

The typing tool – ask 3 - 4 specific questions (elements from study), on a 3-point scale …

and assign respondent to a segment

17 17

HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO BUY THIS (Product Name Here)?

2

3

1

2

Calms you down … just what you need when you're feeling stressed

As part of a low fat, low cholesterol diet,chocolate reduces risk of some forms of cancer

The delicious classic – pure milk chocolate

With the same antioxidant action as a cup of green tea

18 18

‘Industrial-strength’ Mind-Typing Tool for Any Product, Service, Location, Problem – 6 screens

Each person in a database fills out this form, with 50 screens at start of year, or when joining loyalty program.

You store segment membership and text or email sales, or present messages on digital signage.

Product =

Text element #1

Text element #2

Text element #3

Rate each phrase for on the 1-9 scale1=not at all interested …9=extremely interested

Product =

Text element #1

Text element #2

Text element #3


Product =

Text element #1

Text element #2

Text element #3


Product =

Text element #1

Text element #2

Text element #3


Product =

Text element #1

Text element #2

Text element #3


Product =

Text element #1

Text element #2

Text element #3


Chocolate Vegetables

Fast food Experience

Dairy Bev

Meat Red wine

CREATING ON A BIGGER SCALE



2003 WHO Global Health report:

• Obesity and diabetes rates have risen three-fold or more since 1980

• in some areas of North America, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Pacific Islands, Australasia and China.

• Due to increased consumption of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods with high levels of sugar and saturated fats typical of dietary habits in developed/developing countries.

• Reduced physical activity

A GROWING GLOBAL PROBLEM

APPLYING MIND® GENOMICS® TO WORLD HEALTH PROBLEMS


• WE SAW A SOLUTION. Late 1990’s- early 2000’s, we did Crave IT!, Drink IT!, Buy IT! and Healthy YOU! mega studies on products/consumer experience across 30 different venues. • FINDINGS:

• Respondents wanted their needs (skin care to food) located together) in one place.

• Price Segment Shoppers somewhat interested in traditional products grouped with Diabetic needs.

• Lots of choices, options appeals most to Easy Shopping segment.• Lots of other products with diabetic products appeals to Product Focused

and Services and Convenience segments.

• WE RE-AFFIRMED THE SOLUTION. 2003, we designed/conducted an experiment of shopping experiences modeled on Cardinal Health, Inc.’s “Diabetes Place” (Minkus-McKenna, Ashman & Moskowitz, 2004).• FINDINGS: Reinforced earlier research results.

• Recommended creation of single destination shopping experiences, especially for health and disease-related categories.

• RETAILERS TOOK ACTION. Last decade, many retailers such as CVS, Walgreens, Target and Walmart have set up these dedicated destination products/services centers.

APPLYING MIND® GENOMICS® TO DIABETES


HOW TO COMBAT THE CHINESE DIABETES EPIDEMIC USING MIND GENOMICS®


THANK YOU! FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:

Howard R. Moskowitz, Ph.D.Moskowitz Jacobs Inc.

1025 Westchester Ave., Su. 400White Plains, New York 10604

USAPhone: 914-421-7408

E-mail: [email protected]: www.mji-designlab.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.mji-designlab.com/

Reliably Predicting the Future

Business

Transcript of Reliably Predicting the Future