World Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050 by
Relationship Between Economic Activity and SO x Emissions: 1950-2000 Version 5 April 22, 2002
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Transcript of Relationship Between Economic Activity and SO x Emissions: 1950-2000 Version 5 April 22, 2002
Relationship Between Economic Activity and SOx Emissions: 1950-2000
Version 5 April 22, 2002
Class Project
Me 449 Sustainable Air Quality
Y. Kuwabara, S. Lahr, B. Ponczak, M Roberts, A. Shaw
Instructor: R. Husar
Washington University
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Economic Activity-Emission Relationship
Develop a relationship between the pollutant emission rate SOx and the activities in Industrial, Transport, Residential and Commercial economic sectors.
SOx = f ( IA, TA, RA, CA)
Industrial, IA
Transport, TA
Residential,TA
Commmerc.,CA
Ind. Energy
Tr. Energy
Res.Energy
Com. Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Air Pollution
SOx
NOx
HC
PM
Activity Consumption Production Emission
Metals
ZOther
Ind. Goods
Nuclear
Land Poll.
Water Poll.
Ind. Activity, IA
Transp. Activity,TA
Resid. Activity,RA
Comm. Activity,CA
Industr. Energy, IE
Transp. Energy, TE
Resid.Energy, RE
Commerc. Energy, CE
ActivityGoods Consumption
Material Goods Consumption, MG = aim x IA
Ind. Other GoodsCons., XG = aix x IA
Ind. Energy Consumption, IE = aii x IA
Transp. Energy Consumption, TE = ate x TA
Resid. Energy Consumption, RE = are x RA
Commercial Energy Cons., CE = ace x CA
Total Goods & Energy Consumption = MG + IE + TE + RE + CE
Total Goods & Energy Consumption = aim x IA + aii x IA + ate x TA + arr x RA + ace x CA
aim =Material Goods/Industrial Activity
ate =Transport Energy/Transport Activity
are = Residential Energy/Residential Activity
ace = Residential Energy / Residential Activity
Material Goods, MG
aie =Industrial Energy/Industrial Activity
Other Goods, XGaix =Other X Goods/Industrial Activity
Coal Cons. CC
Oil Cons, OC
Gas Cons, GC
Metals Cons, MC
bic =(ICC+ILC)/IE
bmm = MC /MG
Metals Cons., MC = bmm x MG = = aim x bmm IA
Coal Cons, CC = bic x IE + btc x TE + brc x RE + bcc x CE
= aii x bic x IA + att x btc x TA + arr x brc x RA + acc x bcc x CA
Oil Cons, CC =
Gas Cons, CC =
Industr. Energy, IE
Transp. Energy, TE
Resid.Energy, RE
Commerc. Energy, CE
Goods Consumption
Material Goods, MGMaterial Consumption
btc =(TCC+TLC)/TE
brc =(RCC+RLC)/RE
bcc =(CCC+CLC)/CE
Other Goods, XG
XChemical Cons XC
bmx = XG /XC
Electricity distribution Matrix
The coefficients ILS etc. represent electric energy consumed by a given sector by a fuel
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear & Other
Industrial ILC ILO ILG ILN
Transport TLC TLO TLG TLN
Resident RLC RLO RLG RLN
Commerc. CLC CLO CLG CLG
Ind. Electr. by Coal, ILCTrasp. Electr. by Coal, TLCResid. Electr. by Coal, RLCComm. Electr.by Coal, CLC
Coal Cons. CC
Oil Cons, OC
Gas Cons, GC
Metals Cons, MC
Material Consumption
Air Pollution
SOx, SE
NOx, NE
HC, HE
PM, PE
Emission
Nuclear, U
Land Poll., L
Water Poll., W
cms = S/MC
ccs = S/CC
cos = S/OC
cgs = S/GC
Emission relationship to material(metal) and fuel consumption:
SOx Emission, SE = cms x MC + cxs x XC + ccs x CC + cos x OC + cgs x GC
Chemical Cons, XCcxs = S/XC
Emission relationship to goods and energy demand:
SOx Emission, SE = cms x bmm x MG + cxs x bmx x XG + Metals & XOther
ccs x (bic x IE + btc x TE + brc x RE + bcc x CE) + Coal
cos x (bio x IE + bto x TE + bro x RE + bco x CE) + Oil
cgs x (big x IE + btg x TE + brg x RE + bcg x CE) Gas
Emission relationship to economic activities:
SOx Emission, SE =
= cms x bmm x aim x IA + cxs x bmx x aim x IA +
ccs x (bic x aii x IA + btc x att x TA + brc x arr x RA + bcc x acc x CA) +
cos x (bio x aii x IA + bto x att x TA + bro x arr x RA + bco x acc x CA) +
cgs x (big x aii x IA + btg x att x TA + brg x arr x RA + bcg x acc x CA)
Gross Domestic Product, (1996B$)
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
9,000.00
10,000.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
GDP, 1996$ (B$) US Population, (MM)
GDP/Person, (1000$)
Manufacturing GDP (1996B$)
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
9,000.00
10,000.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
GDP, 1996$ (B$)
Manufactuing GDP (1996M$)
Industrial Energy by Fuel
Since 1970, electricity has become the largest energy source for the industry
Industrial Energy Consumption - Separate Electr
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
IE Coal IE Gas IE OilIE Other (Elec) IE (Bbtu)
Industrial Energy Consumption incl. Electr
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
IE + EL CoalTotal
IE Oil Total
IE Gas Total
IE Other Elec IE Sum
‘Green’ – non fossil fuel electricity is becoming a significant energy source
Industrial Emission Causality: Energy Use - Sox EmissionsIndustrial Energy and Sox Emiss
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
IE (Bbtu) IE SOx(1000 Short Tons)
Industrial Sox Emission:Direct Fue l Use and Electricity Use
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000To
ns S
Ox
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
IE+EL SoxTotal
IE+EL Sox/person
Metals Production and Emission Metals Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
MT Ferrous/1000
MT Cooper
Metals Sox Emiss
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
MT Sox Copper MT Sox Ferrous
Commercial Residential Sector Indices
• The residential and Commercial sector have grown parallel since 1950
Comm Durable Goods Sales
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
sales of consumer durable goods (1996M$)
sales of consumer durable goods/Person(1996M$)CE(Bbtu)
Commercial and Residential Energy Use
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
RE(Bbtu) CE(Bbtu)
Commercial Residential Sector
• The person/housing declined but the energy/housing peaked around 1970
Energy/Housing and Occupancy
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
RE(Bbtu)/HousingUnit Person/Housing Units (MM)
Resid. Housing Units and Energy Use
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
RE(Bbtu)
Number of Occupied Housing Units (MM)
• The residential units and the energy use has grown have grown parallel since 1950
Commercial Residential Energy Consumption
• Since the 1960s, electricity has become the main energy source
Commercial & Residential Energy Consumption - Separate Electr
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Oil CE+RE Other
CE+RE(Bbtu)
Commercial & Residential Energy Consumption incl. Electr
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000B
Btu
CE+RE Coal Tot
CE+RE Oil Tot
CE+RE Gas Tot CE+RE Other Elec
CE+RE Sum
• Currently, ‘dirty’ coal and ‘clean’ gas supply the CR energy
Commercial Residential Sox Emissions
• Since the 1960s, direct Sox emissions from the CR sector has been minimal
Commercial & Residential SOx Emission - Separate Electr
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal
CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Oil
CE+RE Other
CE+RE Total
Commercial & Residential SOx Emission - Separate Electr
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal
CE+RE Oil Total
CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Other
CE+RE Total CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Total• Virtually all the CR Sox emissions are contributed indirectly through the use of electricity
Commercial Residential Sox Emission Factors
Commercial & Residential Emission Factors- Separate Electr
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal
CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Oil
CE+RE Other
CE+RE Sox Sum
Commercial & Residential Emission Factors incl. Electr
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal Total CE+RE Oil Total CE+RE Gas Total
CE+RE Other
CE+RE Sox Sum
Comm. Res. Sox Emission Factors/Person
• Considering only the direct emissions, the em. factors have declined dramatically
ComRes SOx/Energy, Sox/Housing
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
(CE+RE + EL Sox Emission)/Person
(CE+RE +EL Sox Emission)/Btu(CE+RE + EL Sox Emission)/Housing
ComRes SOx/Energy, Sox/Housing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
(CE+RE Sox Emission)/Btu
(CE+RE Sox Emission)/Housing(CE+RE Sox Emission)/Person
• Including the indirect EL emissions, the em. factors have declined slightly
CR Causality: Population - Housing - Sox Emissions
• In the 1950-1970, the increase of Sox was driven by the population increase
• The Sox decline since 1960 was caused by a reduction of emission factors
Commercial & Residential SOx Emission - Separate Electr
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal
CE+RE Oil Total
CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Other
CE+RE Total CE+RE Gas
CE+RE Total
Resid. Housing Units and Energy Use
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
RE(Bbtu)
Number of Occupied Housing Units (MM)
Population
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
US Population, (MM)
Energy/Housing and Occupancy
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
RE(Bbtu)/HousingUnit Person/Housing Units (MM)
Commercial & Residential Emission Factors incl. Electr
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal Total CE+RE Oil Total CE+RE Gas Total
CE+RE Other
CE+RE Sox Sum