Regulation University: Beware of Inflated Benefits and Hidden Costs
Transcript of Regulation University: Beware of Inflated Benefits and Hidden Costs
Regulation University: Beware of Inflated Benefits and Hidden Costs
March 27, 2013
Patrick A. McLaughlin Senior Research Fellow
Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Review: 1. What is “regula4on”? 2. What causes regula4on?
Regula4ons are uniquely opaque as legal instruments à BCA
Why BCA for regula4ons? 1. Avoid unnecessary regula4ons 2. Choose most efficient alterna4ve 3. Provide info to Congress, public
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
The shocking truth…
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory -‐if there’s no problem, where do benefits come from?
2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
Quote from EO 12866: “Each agency shall iden4fy the problem that it intends to address… as well as assess the significance of that problem.”
Quote from EO 12866: “Each agency shall iden4fy the problem that it intends to address… as well as assess the significance of that problem.” Regulatory Report Card Ques4on 6: How well does the analysis iden4fy and demonstrate the existence of a market failure or other systemic problem the regula4on is supposed to solve? Average: 1.7 / 5 for 111 RIAs evaluated.
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
Quote from OMB Circular A-‐4: “Once you have determined that Federal regulatory ac4on is appropriate, you will need to consider alterna4ve regulatory approaches.” -‐OMB Circular A-‐4 (The Instruc4on Manual for RIAs)
Quote from OMB Circular A-‐4: “Once you have determined that Federal regulatory ac4on is appropriate, you will need to consider alterna4ve regulatory approaches.” -‐OMB Circular A-‐4 (The Instruc4on Manual for RIAs) Regulatory Report Card Ques4on 7: How well does the analysis assess the effec1veness of alterna1ve approaches?
Average: 2.4 / 5 for 111 RIAs evaluated.
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion -‐Failure to evaluate alterna4ves leads to inefficiency, but also real (unintended) consequences
3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What costs are le` out of most RIAs?
Usually everything but direct compliance costs!
Some examples
Failure to account for efficiency losses from taxes/subsidies (Early Re4ree Reinsurance Program) – up to 44% more costs
Some examples
Design standards on trains, automobiles – prevents innova4on domes4cally and importa4on of desired goods
Speaking of compliance costs…
While it would be nice to have es4mates of the costs of regula4on that were right on average, it would be even more comfor4ng to have es4mates that were close on average. -‐R. David Simpson, EPA, in “Do Regulators Overes4mate the Costs of Regula4on?” Working Paper, December, 2011.
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs -‐affects evalua4on of alterna4ves, misinforms Congress/public, and misinforms future regulatory choices
4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
How are benefits inflated? 1. Assump4ons of underlying risk not supported by best
available science or data (Abdukadirov and Yazigi 2012; Ellig 2013)
Ques4onable Data (Ellig 2013) NHTSA’s Minimum Sound Requirements for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (2013): -‐Documents how vehicle’s sounds help blind people -‐Concludes that noise requirements would therefore help blind people BUT Then $115.1 million of benefits (>50%) come from avoiding bicyclist-‐car collisions. Are there that many blind bicyclists?
How are benefits inflated? 1. Assump4ons of underlying risk not supported by best
available science or data (Abdukadirov and Yazigi 2012; Ellig 2013)
2. Restric4ng consumer choice as a benefit (Gayer and Viscusi 2012)
How are benefits inflated? 1. Assump4ons of underlying risk not supported by best
available science or data (Abdukadirov and Yazigi 2012; Ellig 2013)
2. Restric4ng consumer choice as a benefit (Gayer and Viscusi 2012)
3. Treat transfers as benefit (Ellig and Conover 2012)
Transfers as benefits
Rights to book royal/es
Publisher
Author
Rights to book royal/es
Publisher
Author
Transfers as benefits
Preexis4ng Condi4on Insurance Plan Rule – HHS: Counts reduc4ons in uncompensated care as a benefit (Ellig and Conover 2012)
How are benefits inflated? 1. Assump4ons of underlying risk not supported by best
available science or data (Abdukadirov and Yazigi 2012; Ellig 2013)
2. Restric4ng consumer choice as a benefit (Gayer and Viscusi 2012)
3. Treat transfers as benefit (Ellig and Conover 2012)
4. Assume perfect compliance and ignore changes in consumer behavior
Consumer response to TSA
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits -‐affects evalua4on of alterna4ves, misinforms Congress/public, and misinforms other regulatory choices
What can go wrong in BCA? 1. Regulate based on anecdote or
untested theory 2. Approach a foregone conclusion 3. Ignore/hide costs 4. Inflate benefits
Why would anyone subvert BCA in RIAs?
1. Incen4ves of the agency 2. Incen4ves of the individual
Why should we care?
1. Regulate when unnecessary 2. Fail to choose most efficient op4on 3. Unintended consequences 4. Misinform Congress and public 5. Derail retrospec4ve review