Regretful Signings?
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Transcript of Regretful Signings?
REGRETFUL S
IGNIN
GS?
B Y: K
E VI N
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I LL I P
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NO
NPA
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K DAMPI
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Do players decline in production after signing a new contract?
Does signing with a new team alter production?
2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012 (after lockout)
2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013
Look at Statistics of all players signing a new contract between the two seasons
THE BURNING QUESTIONS
2-Sample T-Test
Minutes per Game (MPG)
Assists per Game (APG)
Rebounds per Game (RPG)
Points per Game (PPG)
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Krustkal-Wallis Test
Minutes per Game (MPG)
Assists per Game (APG)
Rebounds per Game (RPG)
Points per Game (PPG)
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
IS RE-SIGNING A FACTOR?
YesNo
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Re-sign?
MP
G N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of MPG New-Old
YesNo
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Re-sign?
AP
G N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of APG New-Old
YesNo
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
-7.5
Re-sign?
RP
G N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of RPG New-Old
YesNo
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
-7.5
Re-sign?
PPG N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of PPG New-Old
YesNo
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Re-sign?
PER
New
-Old
Boxplot of PER New-Old
Box Plots (2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012)
YesNo
20
10
0
-10
-20
Re-Sign
MP
G N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of MPG New-Old
YesNo
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Re-Sign
AP
G N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of APG New-Old
YesNo
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
Re-Sign
RP
G N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of RPG New-Old
YesNo
10
5
0
-5
-10
Re-Sign
PPG N
ew
-Old
Boxplot of PPG New-Old
YesNo
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Re-Sign
PER
New
-Old
Boxplot of PER New-Old
Box Plots (2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013)
Minutes per Game (MPG): T=-2.55, P-Value=0.012*
Assists per Game (APG) :T=-1.20, P-Value=0.234
Rebounds per Game (RPG): T=-2.75, P-Value=0.007*
Points per Game (PPG): T=-2.83, P-Value=0.006*
Player Efficiency Rating (PER): T=-0.82, P-Value=0.416
RESULTS 2010-2011
RESULTS 2011-2012 VS. 2012-2013
MPG: T=-0.30, P-Value=0.767
APG: T=-1.29, P-Value=0.199
RPG: T=1.05, P-Value=0.296
PPG: T=0.78. P-Value=0.438
PER: T=1.65, P-Value=0.102
20100-10-20
99.9
99
95
90
80706050403020
10
5
1
0.1
Data
Perc
ent -0.6364 5.646 107 0.229 0.805
-0.08785 0.7907 107 3.119 <0.005
-0.1654 1.436 107 1.455 <0.005-0.5364 2.765 107 0.376 0.407-0.5963 3.819 107 0.934 0.017
Mean StDev N AD P
MPG New-OldAPG New-OldRPG New-OldPPG New-OldPER New-Old
Variable
Probability Plot of MPG New-Old, APG New-Old, RPG New-Old, ...Normal - 95% CI
2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012
50403020100-10-20-30
99.9
99
95
90
80706050403020
10
5
1
0.1
Data
Perc
ent -1.428 6.410 105 0.371 0.417
-0.1848 1.065 105 3.240 <0.005-0.2981 1.428 105 1.385 <0.005-0.6933 3.098 105 0.266 0.684-0.2895 7.043 105 5.895 <0.005
Mean StDev N AD P
MPG New-OldAPG New-OldRPG New-OldPPG New-OldPER New-Old
Variable
Probability Plot of MPG New-Old, APG New-Old, RPG New-Old, ...Normal - 95% CI
2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013
KRUSKAL-WALLIS TEST RESULTS
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 V S . 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
MPG: K=4.70, P-Value=0.030*
APG: K=3.88, P-Value=0.049*
RPG: K=5.38, P-Value=0.020*
PPG: K=6.24, P-Value=0.012*
PER: K=0.27, P-Value=0.602
2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 V S . 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
MPG: K=0.19, p-Value=0.662
APG: K=0.96, p-Value=0.327
RPG: K=0.69, p-Value=0.406
PPG: K=0.35, p-Value=0.552
PER: K=2.43, p-Value=0.119
SIGN-TEST RESULTS
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 V S . 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
MPG: θ=-1.200, p-Value=0.2460
APG: θ=-0.1000, p-Value=0.1258
RPG: θ=-0.1000, p-Value=0.4260
PPG: θ=-0.6000, p-Value=0.0650
PER: θ=-0.7000, p-Value=0.1451
2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 V S . 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
MPG: θ=-2.300, p-Value=0.0510
APG: θ=-0.1000, p-Value=0.1980
RPG: θ=-0.2000, p-Value=0.0228*
PPG: θ=-0.8000, p-Value=0.0761
PER: θ=-0.5000, p-Value=0.1184
CONCLUSIONS
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 V S . 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
Re-signing was a factor for every statistics except for PER
Not enough evidence for any statistic to say that there was a significant difference in production after signing a new contract
2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 V S . 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
There wasn’t sufficient evidence to conclude that there was a significant difference because of re-signing or not.
Only RPG had enough sufficient evidence to conclude that there was a significant difference in production after signing a new contract