Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: China’s Changing Demographic Landscapes Max Lu...
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Transcript of Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: China’s Changing Demographic Landscapes Max Lu...
Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: China’s Changing Demographic Landscapes
Max Lu
Department of Geography
Kansas State University
Topics to be Covered
Population size Growth Distribution Ethnic composition Changing demographic landscapes An activity
31 Provincial Units (Not including Taiwan)
The most populous country in the world
1.335 billion at the end of 2009 Just under 1/5 of the world’s total > 4 times as large as the US pop. Large than the combined populations of Europe, the U.S., Canada,
Mexico, Russia, and Japan
Europe 584.7 mil
the US 297.1
Canada 32.2 Total: 1294.6 (2008)
Mexico 110.5
Russia 142.2
Japan 127.9
Lined up shoulder to shoulder, could go around the earth over 30 times!
Still growing at about 7 million a year
But India is expected to pass China in 2025
Population: both Greatest Asset and Liability
Several of China’s demographic traits are similar to those of developed countries
China Compared to the US Source: PRB, 2009
China US Total pop (mid-2009) 1,331.4 306.8 Density (pop/mi2) 360 83 Birth rate 12 14 Death rate 7 8 TFR 1.6 2.1 Infant mortality 21 6.6 Life expectancy m. 71, f. 75 m.75,
f.80 % Urban 46 79 % of pop > 65 yrs 8 13 Per capita GNI ppp $6,020 $46,970
Population Growth
For a pop to grow steadily, several conditions must be met:
Enough food to feed pop. Sufficient medical care, so people don’t die young Capacity to cope with natural disasters Minimum political turmoil
Chinese pop. fluctuated considerably over time
Intro of potatoes boosted pop. growth
Historical Growth
Year Dynasty Pop (in mil.)
2140 BC Early days of the Xia 13.55
2 AD Han 59.59
280 Han 16.16
755 Tang 52.92
1110 Song 46.73
1403 Ming 66.60
1762 Qing 200.47
1949 541
Rapid Increase after 1949 It took about 3800 yrs to increase from 10m to
100 mil Net increase in recent periods:
1949-58 120 mil
1962-70 157
1971-80 135
1982-90 127
1990-00 132
Exceeded 1 billion in 1982 Need to slow down
Population Distribution
Where Most People Live: Near Coasts Flat Terrain Near Rivers Temperate Climates Fertile Soil
China’s Pop Distribution: Very Uneven Striking Differences b/w East and West
World Population Distribution
4 Clusters: East Asia S. AsiaEurope NE US & SE CA
West-East Contrasts
West East
Land 60% 40% Climate Arid/Semi Arid Humid Pop. About 80 m 94%
Many minorities Han Majority
Sparsely populated Densely populated
Cities Some Most Agri. Limited/Oasis Most agr. land
Ethnic Composition
56 ethnic groups
Han people The majority
- about 94% of the total
Reside mainly in the east
Minority Nationalities Several are Big (in millions, Year
2000)Zhuang 16.2 MillionManchu 10.7Hui (Muslim) 9.8Miao 8.9Uygurs 8.4
Some Are Small
Naxi 308,800 PeopleOnce a Matriarchal
Society“A-Zhu” Marriage
Dai 1.2 Million
Pre-Policy
Traditional culture values large families
In the early 1950s under the rule of Mao Zedong birth control policies were condemned. Mao said that controlling the population was “a way of slaughtering the Chinese people without drawing blood.”
“…[the people] are the most precious of all categories of capital.”
Late, Thin, and Few
A campaign launched in 1971
Delayed marriage/childbirth, spacing births at 5-year intervals, and fewer children per couple
Contraceptives widely distributed, free of charge
Require government permission to have children
Family Planning Committees at all levels of governments
“Birth control nannies”Intrusive questions
“One Couple, One Child”
Adopted in 1979 The harshest birth control policy in the world? Couples are asked to pledge to having only one child
Incentives
Free prenatal care
Many rewards (mainly to urban residents):
larger homes, larger salaries and promotions.
Better, often free education for the only children.
Paid maternity leave, 3-6 months, or longer
The government generally pays for the birth control costs.
Consequences of Violation
The official sanction is a fine, but many times much more harsh actions are taken.
Sometimes couples are demoted or fired from their jobs.
Those having 2nd child cannot register them and therefore they do not legally exist.
Many exceptions for second child have been introduced since 1984
Examples: Both members of the couple are only
children First child is disabled For rural residents, if first child is a girl Remarried couples Minority couples
Debate on the “One Couple, One Child”
Allow each couple to have two children?
pros vs cons
The Changing Demographic Landscapes
The Impetus for Change
Unprecedented Socioeconomic Transitions- From a socialist economy to a market economy- From an agrarian society to an urban, industrial giant
- A growing middle class, - Changes in values and social norms
Birth Control Policies- Traditional culture favored large families and male heir- Birth control practice in the early 1970: Late, thin, few- “One couple, one child” in 1979- Modifications of the one child policy
The Changing Demographic Landscapes
Decline in Fertility A Rapid Demographic Transition Aging A Skewed Sex Ratio Large-scale Internal Migration
esp. rural-urban migration Whither One Couple, One Child?
Decline in Birth Rates
TFR: 1971: 5.44 2009: 1.6 Fell below replacement level since 1992 Well below 1.0 in large cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.)
Birth rate: 1970: 33.43‰ 2009: 12.13‰Natural growth: 1970: 25.83‰ 2009: 5.05‰
Shanghai: negative growth 17 years in a row so far
Significantly lowered pop growth 1971-2009: 400 million fewer people were born
because of family planning ??
Birth Rates by Province, 2007
A Rapid Demographic Transition
China’s Demographic Transitions
1949, 2nd stage of demographic transitionHigh birth (36‰), high but declining death
(20‰)
Early 1960s: 3rd stageBirth and death rates started to converge
Late 1970s: 4th stageLow birth and death rates
The Chinese Case
Population Aging
The “Graying” of the Chinese Population:
2015: 10%
2035: 20%
2050: 25%
Population aging
2000% 65 yrs or older: 6.96%
2009: 8%
Elderly growing at 3.2% each year
May reach 10% at 2015, and 20% at 2035
Getting Old before Getting Rich
According to a UN study, China is aging faster than other country in history.
The median age is on pace to move from the current 32 years to 44 years by 2040.
How to Care for the Growing Elderly Population?
Skewed Sex Ratio
Currently at 119:100 surfeit of boys and dearth of young women Increase by birth order Substantial regional differences
3 Main Reasons: Son preference Use of prenatal sex-detecting technology Declining fertility
In 2020, 30-40 million more young men than women Social repercussions
“Demographic time bomb”
The “Care for Girls” ProgramLaunched in 2003
Changing Son Preference?
Chinese On the Move
Tourists in Downtown Shanghai
Urbanization Level
Finally, an activity about how the age-sex structure of China’s population evolves over time using data and tools from the U.S. Census Bureau.