Regional Safety Workshop · 2017-08-02 · MVMT from 6.71 serious injuries per 100 MVMT in 2016 to...
Transcript of Regional Safety Workshop · 2017-08-02 · MVMT from 6.71 serious injuries per 100 MVMT in 2016 to...
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Regional Safety Workshop
July 20, 2017
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Regional Crashes (2007-2016)
2011-2015
Percentage
Increase: 63.2%
139,458
128,247 130,309
114,975
107,118
124,539
136,947
156,198
171,153 174,868
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2011-20166
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Regional Crash Rate Per 100 Million of Vehicle Miles Traveled (2011-2016)
2011-2015
Percentage
Increase:
38.7%
158.8
184.8
204.8 210.0220.2
237.4251.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2016 & 2016 are forecasted estimates due to lack of VMT data
2011-20166
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Fatalities in All Crash Types (2007-2016)
675
669
640
654
610 636 66
1
672
681
774
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Serious Injuries in All Crash Types (2007-2016)
3,8
63
3,4
40
3,1
51
3,2
28
2,8
95
3,3
09
3,4
18
3,5
56
3,6
87
3,5
93
15,5
26
14,2
98
13,8
15
14,1
84
12,9
81
14,6
02
14,8
24
15,9
88
16,4
27
17,7
33
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Incapacitating Non-Incapactating
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Non-Motorized Fatalities & Serious Injuries (2007-2016)
215 233 173 184 206 233 223 204 260 324
710 696 592 578 513
660 660 785 705 737
1,674 1,855
1,645 1,709
1,469
1,864 1,878
1,997 2,090 2,140
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fatalities Incapacitating Non-Incapaciting
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1.Number of fatalities
2.Rate of fatalities
3.Number of serious injuries
4.Rate of serious injuries
5.Number of non-motorized fatalities and
serious injuries
5-Year Rolling Average: Each target is based on a 5-year rolling average,
which is the average of 5 individual, consecutive points of data
Federal Safety Performance Measures
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Fatalities/Serious Injuries by Focus Area
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Regional Safety Plan
Areas of Focus:
▪ Intersections (2016 Texas Intersection Safety Implementation Plan)
▪ Bicycle and Pedestrian
▪ Distracted Driving
▪ Aggressive Driving
▪ Impaired Driving
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Best Practice Research –Counter Measures
- TxDOT Strategic Highway Safety Plan
- Arizona SHSP
- California SHSP
- Kansas City - Towards Zero Deaths Blue Print
- Oregon Metro Regional Safety Plan
- Phoenix Safety Plan
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Workshop Items▪ Maps – Issue identification by topic
– Geography– Corridor– Intersection– Demographic– Time of Day
▪ Countermeasures – Engineering– Enforcement– Education– Other (empowerment, legislation, etc.)
▪ Questionnaire– Areas– Challenges– Countermeasures
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Regional Safety Plan - Goal
Improve the safety of our
region’s transportation system. Being able to safely drive, walk, bike, and
ride transit are all a part of a safe
transportation system.
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Regional Safety Plan - Components
▪ Crash data analysis and performance measures
▪ Stakeholder involvement
▪ Identification of emphasis areas and issues
▪ Strategies (5 E’s - Education, Encouragement, Enforcement, Evaluation, and Engineering)
▪ Implementation plan
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Regional Safety PlanMulti-pronged approach to addressing our region’s transportation safety needs:
• Evaluation | data evaluation, setting targets and focus areas.
• Engineering | infrastructure investments.
• Education | educational outreach.
• Enforcement | enforcement of safe driving, riding, and walking practices.
• Encouragement and Empowerment| technical tools and training to partners and public.
• Emergency Management | Effective incident management practices.
• Legislation | passing/revising of laws and ordinances.
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Regional Safety Plan – Next Steps
▪ Regional Safety Workshop – July 2017
▪ Analyze data and identify problem areas and patterns –August 2017
▪ Stakeholder outreach – August through October 2017
▪ Development of Strategies – November 2017
▪ Plan Completion – January 2018
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Regional Safety Workshop
▪770 Fatalities▪ 20,000 Serious Injuries▪ 170,000 Crashes
Focus Areas Challenges Countermeasures
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Texas Strategic Highway Safety Plan and
Safety Performance Management
Stephen Ratke, P.E.
Safety Engineer
FHWA – Texas Division
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Agenda
SHSP Overview
Safety Performance Management Overview
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Strategic Highway Safety Plan (SHSP)
A Plan to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads
A multi-disciplinary, collaborative approach
Data-driven problem identification and prioritization
Links to other plans and programs
www.TexasSHSP.com
Required since 2006
Must be updated every five years
Texas update to be completed by August 1, 2017
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Texas 2017 – 2022 SHSP
Work began in November 2016
Executive Committee reviews and
approves
Management team provides data, support
Stakeholder Committee provides
feedback and direction
Emphasis Area teams develop strategies,
countermeasures, and actions
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Stakeholder
Ranking
Problem Area Casualties
(K & A)
1 Distraction 21,121
2 Impairment 26,284
3 Pedestrians 8,749
4 Intersections 40,494
5 Speeding 17,963
6 48,171
FHWA Requirement Older Users 9,890
SVROR Head -
on
SHSP Emphasis areas
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Texas SHSP Next Steps
EA teams develop action plans (Fall 2017)
Management Team and stakeholders develop branding and marketing (Fall –
Winter 2017)
SHSP regional forums (Spring 2017)
Establish regular EA team meetings
Establish regular Executive Committee meetings
Implement and track progress
Evaluate and modify
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Vision Zero
Many states have created a “zero” fatalities brand as part of the SHSP
SHSPs and Vision Zero build upon the same principles from European efforts
Vision Zero
SHSP
Targets and Goals
Data Analysis
Priority Improvements
Funding Opportunities
Policy and Standards
Focus Areas and
Plans
Public Messaging
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Aligning Safety Performance Measures
SHSP
Measurable
Objectives
HSP
Measures
and Targets
HSIP
Measures
and Targets
Annual
Targets Must
be Identical
8
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Types of Target Setting
Evidence-Based Target Setting
Estimate of achievements for a specific set of investments, policies,
and strategies
Achievable
Relatively short timeframe (5 to 10 years)
Aspirational or Vision-Based Target Setting
Long-term vision for future performance
Vision for zero fatalities (Vision Zero, Towards Zero Deaths)
9
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MPO Safety Target Requirements
MPOs establish targets for each of the five measures within 180
days after the State DOT reports targets
MPOs have two options when setting targets for each measure:
Establish a numerical target for each performance measure specific to
the MPO planning area
Agree to support the State DOT target
MPO reporting of targets to DOT to be agreed upon between
DOT and MPO
MPO targets are not evaluated by FHWA
10
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Texas SHSP Target Setting
Safety targets were debated extensively
Desire for zero related goals and improvements in safety
Reflection of reality that near-term safety is on a negative trend
TTI and TxDOT presented several methods for establishing targets
Linear projection of annual numbers was agreed upon
Has the “best fit” of previous data and expectations
Consensus for a 2% reduction goal for positive slope trend projections
Consensus for maintaining trend for negative slope trend projections
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TxDOT Targets – Fatalities
2018: 3,891
2022: 4,241
2% reduction from projection
2016 CRIS: 3,775
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total Number of Traffic Fatalities
Fatalities (FARS data) Linear Projection Targets 2016 CRIS
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TxDOT 2018 Annual Targets
Target: Total number of traffic fatalities
2018 Target: To decrease the expected rise of
fatalities from 3,516 in 2015 to not more than 3,891
fatalities in 2018
The 2018 Target expressed as a five year rolling
average would be as follows:
Target: Total number of
incapacitating injuries
2018 Target: To decrease the rise of serious injuries
from 17,578 serious injuries in 2016 to not more
than 18,130 serious injuries in 2018
The 2018 Target expressed as a five year rolling
average would be as follows:Year Target or
Actual Data
Source
2014 3,536 FARS
2015 3,516 ARF
2016 3,775 CRIS
2017 3,801 Target
2018 3,891 Target
2018 Target expressed
as 5-year average
3,703.8
Year Target or
Actual Data
Source
2014 17,133 CRIS
2015 17,096 CRIS
2016 17,578 CRIS
2017 17,890 Target
2018 18,130 Target
2018 Target expressed
as 5-year average
17,565.4
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TxDOT 2018 Annual Targets
Target: Deaths per 100 million vehicle
miles traveled
2018 Target: To decrease the expected rise of deaths per
100 MVMT from 1.36 deaths per 100 MVMT in 2015 to
not more than 1.46 deaths per 100 MVMT in 2018
The 2018 Target expressed as a five year rolling average
would be as follows:
Target: Serious Injuries per 100
million vehicle miles traveled
2018 Target: To decrease the rate of serious injuries per 100
MVMT from 6.71 serious injuries per 100 MVMT in 2016
to 6.64 serious injuries per 100 MVMT in 2018
The 2018 Target expressed as a five year rolling average
would be as follows:
Year Target or
Actual Data
Source
2014 1.45 FARS
2015 1.36 ARF
2016 1.44 CRIS
2017 1.45 Target
2018 1.46 Target
2018 Target
expressed as 5-year
average
1.432
Year Target or
Actual Data
Source
2014 7.05 CRIS
2015 6.62 CRIS
2016 6.71 CRIS
2017 6.68 Target
2018 6.64 Target
2018 Target
expressed as 5-year
average
6.740
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TxDOT 2018 Annual Targets
Target: Total number of non-motorized
fatalities and serious injuries
2018 Target: To decrease the expected rise of
non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries
from 2,023 in 2015 to not more than 2,309
non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries in
2018
The 2018 Target expressed as a five year rolling
average would be as follows:
Year Target or
Actual Data
Source
2014 1,893 FARS-CRIS
2015 2,023 FARS-CRIS
2016 2,304 FARS-CRIS
2017 2,224 Target
2018 2,309 Target
2018 Target expressed
as 5-year average
2150.6
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Considerations for Targets
Safety outcomes are most linked to economic activity and population growth
In an environment of rising total numbers, does a goal below the projection make sense?
Can we actually achieve a reduction from the projection without major changes?
The models already account for what we have done so far
Are there other program changes we should be making?
Is there a reduction goal that isn’t arbitrary in nature?
Should the target be lower to help drive interest in making change?
Should the target be higher to demonstrate to executives that additional support is needed?
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Resources
Safety Performance Measures
http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/spm/
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/
SHSP
https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/shsp/
http://safety.transportation.org/
Vision Zero
http://visionzeronetwork.org/
http://www.towardzerodeaths.org/
http://www.visionzeroinitiative.com/
http://www.nsc.org/learn/NSC-Initiatives/Pages/The-Road-to-Zero.aspx
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Texas Intersection Safety
Implementation Plan
Stephen Ratke, P.E.
Safety Engineer
FHWA – Texas Division
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Agenda
Texas ISIP Study Summary
Texas ISIP Countermeasures
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Conventional vs. Systemic
Conventional Systemic
“High Crash Locations”
Purely reactive
Usually high CRF
Usually high cost
Limited impact on
statewide fatalities
Start with low cost,
effective countermeasures
Install at a large number of
locations with moderate
and high crash history
Prioritizes risk factors
over crash history
Potential to substantially
reduce fatalities
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Basic Approach for intersections
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Overarching goals of Texas ISIP
Prioritize intersection locations and
countermeasures for near-term implementation
Strengthen partnerships between TxDOT, MPOs,
local governments, and FHWA
Identify opportunities for enhancing Texas’s data
systems to allow for more robust systemic
analyses in the future
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Systemic analysis
Data challenges
No single statewide intersection database
Traffic volume data not widely available for non state
maintained routes
What is available?
MPO TAZ shapefiles - area type (rural/urban)
TxDOT RHiNo database - classification of maintaining
agency
CRIS database - traffic control type as recorded by the
reporting officer
ESRI Street file - node location in GIS
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Distribution of intersections and
crashes
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Summary of Statewide Findings
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Potential Crash Thresholds
More than half of the KA intersection crashes could be addressed by
targeting just 29% of the KA intersection crash locations
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H-GAC Intersections, 1+ KA Crash
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H-GAC Intersections, 3+ KA Crash
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Desired Countermeasure Packages
Potential for widespread use
Current and potential deployment
Potential impact to severe crashes
Crash reduction factor
Easy deployment
Low cost
Favorable benefit-cost ratio
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Install advance warning signs and
flashers
16
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Install pavement markings: arrows
17
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Install pavement markings: lane lines
18
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Install enhanced pedestrian crosswalk
19
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Install lane control signs
20
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Install advance cross street name signs
21
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Re-time signals - coordination and red
and amber clearance
22
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Install retroreflective signal back
plates
23
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Install red light indicator lights
24
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Pedestrian countdown signals
25
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Install Yield to Pedestrians blank out
sign at turn lane
26
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Intersection lighting
27
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Remove on-street parking to improve
sight distance
28