Regional pattern of annual snow cover duration in the Greater Alpine … · 2020. 4. 15. ·...
Transcript of Regional pattern of annual snow cover duration in the Greater Alpine … · 2020. 4. 15. ·...
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1Challenge the future
Regional pattern of annual snow cover duration in the Greater Alpine Region
Markus Hrachowitz
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2Challenge the future
The value of real team workA big “Thank You” to all involved so far
Stefan
Fugger
Chris
Bouman
Susan
Steele-Dunne
…and many others:
Katalin Bene, Marco Borga, Thijs van Esch,
Matthew Herrnegger, Qiaodan Liu, Duro
Parajka, Francesca Pellicciotti, Daniele Penna
Karsten
Schulz
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3Challenge the [email protected]
Seasonal snow pack
Life-line of societies and ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere
Seasonal snow pack - affects timing and magnitude of spring floods- sustains summer low flows
Relevance for- Drinking water- Hydropower production- Agricultural water supply- Industrial water supply- Shipping- Recreational industry
Hammond et al. (2018)
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4Challenge the [email protected]
Annual snow cover duration (DSC)
What do we know?
Hori et al. (2017) Hammond et al. (2018)
What is it?Number of days in a year a given location is covered by snow.
Why is it useful?Less information content than SWE, but directly observable at larger scales and thus lower uncertainties
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5Challenge the [email protected]
Annual snow cover duration (DSC)
What is the knowledge gap?
Hori et al. (2017)
-Low temporal resolution(e.g. NOAA AVHRR)
-Little detail
Observation-based studies
Remote-sensing data In-situ observations
Modelling studies
Global scale Local scale
-Little regional context-Not generalizable
Redpath et al. (2019)
Point-scaleLocal to
global scale
-Very scarce-No spatial context-Not generalizable
Klein et al. (2016)
Marke et al. (2015)
-Data uncertainty-Model uncertainty
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6Challenge the [email protected]
Annual snow cover duration
Greater Alpine Region (GAR)
Formayer and Nardeem (2013)
- 750.000 km2 (~10% of Europe)- 12 countries- Covers the Alps, parts of the Balkan, the
Apennine, the Ardeche, and the Cevennes- Divided into 4 climatic sub-regions
Atlantic/continental
Atlantic/continental
Continental
Mediterranean/Continental
Maritime
Continental
Mediterranean/Continental
Maritime
Formayer and Nardeem (2013)
Objective:Seamless, high-resolution analysisof regional differences in annualsnow cover duration and theirsensitivities to climatic driversacross the entire GAR
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Regional snowline elevation method (RSLE)
Data to determine DSC (2000-2018, daily):- Normalized difference snow index from Modis MOD10A1 (500x500m)- In-situ observations of snow cover at ~2500 locations
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
What is the RSLE?- Spatial filter to reduce cloud cover- Problem: clouds can cover individual grid
cells- Exploits variability of cloud cover- Assumes homogeneous snow line elevation
over specified area (“tile”) at any given timestep
- The larger the tile, the lower the probabilityof no data due to cloud cover but the higheruncertainties in snow line elevations.
Modis pixels
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8Challenge the [email protected]
Regional snowline elevation method (RSLE)
Data to determine DSC (2000-2018, daily):- Normalized difference snow index from Modis MOD10A1 (500x500m)- In-situ observations of snow cover at ~2500 locations
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
What is the RSLE?- Spatial filter to reduce cloud cover- Problem: clouds can cover individual grid
cells- Exploits variability of cloud cover- Assumes homogeneous snow line elevation
over specified area (“tile”) at any given timestep
- The larger the tile, the lower the probabilityof no data due to cloud cover but the higheruncertainties in snow line elevations.
Tile for RSLE calculation
Modis pixels
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9Challenge the future
From all not cloud covered pixels within a tile calculate foreach elevation:
𝑆ℎ 𝑡 = 𝑃𝑠,𝑏,ℎ 𝑡 + 𝑃𝑙,𝑎,ℎ 𝑡
Sh is a scatter value at elevation h;Ps,b,h number of pixels with snow cover below elevation hPl,a,h the number of no-snow pixels above elevation h.
Regional snowline elevation method (RSLE)
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Estimate RSLE for each time step in each tile:
For each time step RSLE is the elevation where 𝑆ℎ → 𝑚𝑖𝑛
Tiles
Krajci et al. (2014)
Krajci et al. (2014)
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10Challenge the [email protected]
- Calculate RSLE time-series foreach tile (25 x 25km2)
Estimation of annual snow cover duration from RSLE
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Tiles
RSLE time-series (2013) for one tile
Average DSC,RSLE,2013 forelevation band 700-800m
- Calculate DSC,RSLE for each yearin at each elevation in each tilefrom RSLE time-series
- Compare DSC,RSLE estimates toDSC,station
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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Fugger et al. (in prep.)
Regional snow line elevation RSLE - snapshots
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Snow season 2000/2001
Snow season 2017/18
October 1 December 1 February 1 April 1
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12Challenge the future
NW NE
SW SE
Regional snow line elevation RSLE – temporal evolution
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
Pronounced differences- between elevations- regions
Dsc,2000m Dsc,2000m
Dsc,2000m Dsc,2000m
Snow season starts ~2 weeks later
Melt-out ~2 weeks earlier
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13Challenge the future
NW NE
SW SE
Regional snow line elevation RSLE – influence of aspect
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
Low exposure locations(e.g. North aspect):
- Earlier start of snowaccumulation (up to 3weeks)
- Later melt-out (up to 4weeks)
- Stronger differences athigher elevations
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14Challenge the future
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
Long-term mean annual snow cover duration DSC,RSLE (2000-2018)
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
DSC,RSLE [d]
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15Challenge the future
Regional differences in DSC,RSLE
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
At same elevations- DSC,RSLE <1 month longer in East
- DSC,RSLE 1-2 months longer in North
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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16Challenge the future
S
N
Regional differences in DSC,RSLE
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
At same elevations- DSC,RSLE <1 month longer in East
- DSC,RSLE 1-2 months longer in North
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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17Challenge the future
Regional differences in DSC,RSLE
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
W
E
At same elevations- DSC,RSLE <1 month longer in East
- DSC,RSLE 1-2 months longer in North
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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18Challenge the future
DSC,RSLE vs. DSC,station
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
- DSC highly variable at low elevations, more stable athigher elevations
- Increase in low elevation DSC variability since 1970,stable at higher elevations
- Difference DSC,RSLE vs. DSC,station higher at lowelevations
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19Challenge the future
[d]
DSC,RSLE vs. DSC,station
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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20Challenge the future
Temporal trends in DSC,RSLE vs. DSC,station
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
SE
SW
NW NE
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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21Challenge the future
Temporal trends in DSC,RSLE vs. DSC,station
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Along main Alpine ridge DSC decreases with rate of 5 – 10 days per decade
In NE-region DSC decreases with rate of up to 25 days per decade
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
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22Challenge the future
Temporal trends in DSC,RSLE at different elevations
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
Low- and mid-elevation regions most sensitive to changeFugger et al. (in prep.)
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23Challenge the future
Temporal trends in DSC,RSLE at different elevations
Annual snow cover duration in GAR
North:- at low- to mid-elevations temperature dominant control on DSC,RSLE
- at high-elevations precipitation dominant
Fugger et al. (in prep.)
NW NE
SW SE
South:- precipitation dominant control on DSC,RSLE at all elevations
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24Challenge the future
Thank you!