Regional Housing Market Perspective
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Regional Housing Market Perspective
HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers GroupStephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 firstname.lastname@example.org
WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?Information: Nations leading provider of residential real estate informationCovering 30 major metropolitan areas nationwideAddressing active subdivisions and the entitlement pipeline
Consulting: Customized analysis for residential and master planned communities848 studies in 22 states in 2004Pricing strategies, absorption studies, product analysis and strategic planning
EXPANSION MOTIVATIONSIncrease RevenueExpand Scale to Enhance ValuationGeographic Diversification to Lower RiskProduct Expansion and Land InventoriesThe Closer In Markets Are Taken
San Joaquin Map
NEW HOME AFFORDABILITY RATIOMajor California MarketsNote: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence1st Quarter 2005 StatisticsOrange County3.8%San Diego6.4%LA/Ventura14.3% Inland Empire15.3%Bay Area14.5%Sacramento16.7%Central California16.9%
DETACHED MEDIAN PRICECentral Valley$408k (+44%) 221% increase from 1st Qtr 1995Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
NEW DET. HOME TRENDS IN PRICE & VALUE/SF Central ValleyMedian Price=$407,859 (+44%)Price/SF=$182 (+5.2%)Merced = $181k (+10.3%)San Joaquin= $200k (+7%)Stanislaus = $171k (+5.6%)Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
AVERAGE DETACHED NEW HOME PRICESCommuter Corridor/Hwy 5 & 99January 2005
Tri-ValleyDublin$1,084, 975Livermore$1,207,301San Ramon$916,837
Central CaliforniaTracy$581,622Patterson$490,159Lathrop$461,191Los Banos$401,046Manteca$394,134 Stockton$388,076Modesto$354,209Fresno$309,518Merced$288,604
SAN JOAQUIN MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETCentral ValleySource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.San Joaquin Captures 47% of SalesSan Joaquin 53.1% in 1997
NEW HOME EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REPORT 1st QUARTER 2005Median Detached BaseTotal Sales (Detached & Attached)CountiesSource: New Home Executive Summary Report, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.
Current Median Price and New Home Sales over Past Four Quarters
San Joaquin $464,9904,804 salesStanislaus$407,6563,997 salesMerced$336,1902,164 salesFresno region$307,5005,625 salesKern County$295,7502,320 sales
DET. SALES: MAJORITY NOW OVER $350KCentral ValleySource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence YTD Net Sales 20044% Over $500K 7% Over $450K 13% Over $400K 18% Over $350K 25% Over $300K 17% Over $250K 8% Over $200K 2% Over $150K .001% Over $100K .001% under $100K
INVENTORY REMAINS LOWCentral ValleySource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence1Q05 Stdg. Inv.10 1Q05 Speculative Inv.13 Mo. Spec. Inv.0.0
Central ValleyFuture Supply CountyActiveMappedTotalSan Joaquin3,35719,24222,599Stanislaus3,8087,58311,391Merced2,9938,43511,428
Projected Supply (Based on 2004 Sales)San Joaquin4.17 years (5,414 sales/yr)Stanislaus2.81 years (4,084 sales/yr)Merced5.43 years (2,103 sales/yr)
RESALES HIT NEW RECORD IN 2004Central CA2004 - 56,026 SalesSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
2004 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
1Q05 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
2004 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSASource: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
1Q05 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSASource: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
News and Notes from Central Valley:In the entire Central California region, builders had detached net sales of 18,508 homes through 2004, representing an increase of 3.5% over 2003.The detached average prices in Central California rose 32% from 2003 to $369,845. The highest increases were found in Central Valley were new homes commanded an average price of $409,488. By comparison, the Kern County submarket base prices increased to $298,452, followed by the Fresno market which increased to $305,661.Central Valley with 163 projects had 93% of its sales occurring in homes priced at over $300,000.
GOING FORWARDLook for additional product in Mountain House, Lathrop, etc. Growth control in Tracy, etc.Merced/Madera will continue to expand.Lot prices continue to increase has more builders look towards the area to expand. The Bay Area will always impact the market, however, local valley move-up buyers now a major market. Due to increased equity and low interest rates.Price points increasing. Tracy/Lathrop towards the high $500,000s, other areas into the mid $400,000s.Look for more slow growth measures to come to a vote over the next few yearsMarkets expanding south of Fresno, communities such as Selma, Sanger, Reedley, etcBay Area/Sacramento builders need to keep pipeline filled.
WHERE CAN WE FIND CHEAP LAND?