Regional Housing Market Perspective

download Regional Housing Market Perspective

of 26

  • date post

    07-Jan-2016
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    18
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

description

Regional Housing Market Perspective. HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers Group Stephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 ssmiley@hanleywood.com. WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?. Information : Nation’s leading provider of residential real estate information - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Regional Housing Market Perspective

  • Regional Housing Market Perspective

    HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers GroupStephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 ssmiley@hanleywood.com

  • WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?Information: Nations leading provider of residential real estate informationCovering 30 major metropolitan areas nationwideAddressing active subdivisions and the entitlement pipeline

    Consulting: Customized analysis for residential and master planned communities848 studies in 22 states in 2004Pricing strategies, absorption studies, product analysis and strategic planning

  • EXPANSION MOTIVATIONSIncrease RevenueExpand Scale to Enhance ValuationGeographic Diversification to Lower RiskProduct Expansion and Land InventoriesThe Closer In Markets Are Taken

  • San Joaquin Map

  • Stanislaus Map

  • Merced Map

  • Fresno Map

  • NEW HOME AFFORDABILITY RATIOMajor California MarketsNote: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence1st Quarter 2005 StatisticsOrange County3.8%San Diego6.4%LA/Ventura14.3% Inland Empire15.3%Bay Area14.5%Sacramento16.7%Central California16.9%

  • DETACHED MEDIAN PRICECentral Valley$408k (+44%) 221% increase from 1st Qtr 1995Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • NEW DET. HOME TRENDS IN PRICE & VALUE/SF Central ValleyMedian Price=$407,859 (+44%)Price/SF=$182 (+5.2%)Merced = $181k (+10.3%)San Joaquin= $200k (+7%)Stanislaus = $171k (+5.6%)Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • AVERAGE DETACHED NEW HOME PRICESCommuter Corridor/Hwy 5 & 99January 2005

    Tri-ValleyDublin$1,084, 975Livermore$1,207,301San Ramon$916,837

    Central CaliforniaTracy$581,622Patterson$490,159Lathrop$461,191Los Banos$401,046Manteca$394,134 Stockton$388,076Modesto$354,209Fresno$309,518Merced$288,604

  • SAN JOAQUIN MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETCentral ValleySource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.San Joaquin Captures 47% of SalesSan Joaquin 53.1% in 1997

  • NEW HOME EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REPORT 1st QUARTER 2005Median Detached BaseTotal Sales (Detached & Attached)CountiesSource: New Home Executive Summary Report, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

  • Current Median Price and New Home Sales over Past Four Quarters

    San Joaquin $464,9904,804 salesStanislaus$407,6563,997 salesMerced$336,1902,164 salesFresno region$307,5005,625 salesKern County$295,7502,320 sales

  • DET. SALES: MAJORITY NOW OVER $350KCentral ValleySource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence YTD Net Sales 20044% Over $500K 7% Over $450K 13% Over $400K 18% Over $350K 25% Over $300K 17% Over $250K 8% Over $200K 2% Over $150K .001% Over $100K .001% under $100K

  • INVENTORY REMAINS LOWCentral ValleySource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence1Q05 Stdg. Inv.10 1Q05 Speculative Inv.13 Mo. Spec. Inv.0.0

  • Central ValleyFuture Supply CountyActiveMappedTotalSan Joaquin3,35719,24222,599Stanislaus3,8087,58311,391Merced2,9938,43511,428

    Projected Supply (Based on 2004 Sales)San Joaquin4.17 years (5,414 sales/yr)Stanislaus2.81 years (4,084 sales/yr)Merced5.43 years (2,103 sales/yr)

  • RESALES HIT NEW RECORD IN 2004Central CA2004 - 56,026 SalesSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • 2004 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • 1Q05 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • 2004 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSASource: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • 1Q05 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSASource: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

  • News and Notes from Central Valley:In the entire Central California region, builders had detached net sales of 18,508 homes through 2004, representing an increase of 3.5% over 2003.The detached average prices in Central California rose 32% from 2003 to $369,845. The highest increases were found in Central Valley were new homes commanded an average price of $409,488. By comparison, the Kern County submarket base prices increased to $298,452, followed by the Fresno market which increased to $305,661.Central Valley with 163 projects had 93% of its sales occurring in homes priced at over $300,000.

  • GOING FORWARDLook for additional product in Mountain House, Lathrop, etc. Growth control in Tracy, etc.Merced/Madera will continue to expand.Lot prices continue to increase has more builders look towards the area to expand. The Bay Area will always impact the market, however, local valley move-up buyers now a major market. Due to increased equity and low interest rates.Price points increasing. Tracy/Lathrop towards the high $500,000s, other areas into the mid $400,000s.Look for more slow growth measures to come to a vote over the next few yearsMarkets expanding south of Fresno, communities such as Selma, Sanger, Reedley, etcBay Area/Sacramento builders need to keep pipeline filled.

  • WHERE CAN WE FIND CHEAP LAND?