Regional Growth & Development Patterns: 2020 Base Case Scenario Update

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Transcript of Regional Growth & Development Patterns: 2020 Base Case Scenario Update

  • 1. Regional Growth &Development Patterns 2020 Base Case Scenario Update May 27, 2009 Tennessee Performing Arts CenterWar Memorial Auditorium Nashville, TN Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization Mayor Ernest Burgess, Chair Mayor Karl F. Dean, Vice-Chair Michael Skipper, Executive Director

2. SO HERE WE ARE AGAIN 3. REGIONAL GEOGRAPHY Robertson Sumner Wilson Rutherford Williamson Maury Dickson Cheatham Montgomery Davidson 4. REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH 10-County CRT Region Other regions (MSA) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Woods & Poole Economics 1965 750,000 2000 1,450,000 2008 1,700,000 2035 2,600,000 Denver Region (2.5 million) Austin Region, Charlotte Region (1.7 million) Portland (OR) Region (2.2 million) Seattle Region (3.3 million) 5. EXISTING DEVELOPMENT Properties affected by current development 6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Environmental constraints/ Land conservation Properties affected by current development 7. AVAILABLE GREENFIELD Properties with development or development constraints 8. AVAILABLE GREENFIELD Land available for new development 9. LAND SUITABILITY

  • Defining Suitability:
  • Land Values
  • Water/ Sewer
  • Schools
  • Major Roads/ Intersections
  • Retail Opportunities
  • Traffic Congestion
  • Transit Service/ Stations
  • Hospitals
  • Parks & Recreation
  • Environmental Conflicts

More Suitable Less Suitable LAND SUITABILITY 10. LAND USE POLICY GENERALIZED CATEGORIES Agricultural, Open Residential Non-Residential Single Use Mixed-Use 11. GROWTH POLICY 12. TODAYS DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by current development 13. 1965 DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by development in 1965 14. TODAYS DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by current development 15. 2035 DEVELOPMENT PATTERN? Properties affected by current & future development 16. NEW GROWTH AREAS? 17. RESIDENTIAL DENSITY TODAY Undeveloped orNon-Residential Use Rural/ Countryside Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential 18. RESIDENTIAL DENSITY 2035 Undeveloped orNon-Residential Use Rural/ Countryside Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential 19. BASE CASE TREND CONTINUES NEW 2035 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO 2020 CRT BASE CASE SCENARIO 20. TODAYS TRAFFIC CONGESTION Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield 21. 2030 TRAFFIC CONGESTION After$1 Billionin Major Improvements Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield 22. 2030 TRAFFIC CONGESTION After$4 Billionin Major Improvements Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield 23. EMERGING REGIONAL ISSUES

  • Unmanageable congestion
  • Longer travel times & trip lengths
  • Increasing energy consumption / costs
  • Declining air & water quality
  • Aging population/ Dispersed families
  • Increasing health problems / costs
  • Increasing traffic safety problems / costs
  • Increasing maintenance/ construction costs
  • Lost habitat / natural areas

24. OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONALISM

  • Improved integration amongtransportation ,land use ,urban design ,rural preservation , andeconomic developmentpolicies.
  • Increasedcoordinationamonglocalcomprehensiveplans .
  • More and better transportation options represented in theregional plan .
  • Morereliableapproach tofunding transitoptions.

25. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed 26. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed existing proposed 27. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO 28. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed 29. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS US 2000 to 2007 Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO Fixed-Route Bus Service 30. TRANSPORTATION BALLOT INITIATIVES Source: Center for Transportation Excellence Mapping: Nashville Area MPO 2000 to 2007 States where voters approved funding Cities, Counties, or Regions where voters approved funding 31. WHATS OUR VISION? Help Shape our Future with Transportation! www.nashvillempo.org www.cuampo.com 32. Top Regional Priorities

  • Transit and Integrated Transportation Planning
  • Supporting Land Development and Other Infrastructure
  • Air and Water Quality and Quantity
  • Open Space Conservation and Regional Character
  • Economic Growth and Development