Regional Economic Prospects in EBRD Countries of Operation: May 2010 Update

EBRD Office of the Chief Economist

This document is provided as background to the EBRD’s growth forecasts for its countries of operation, which are released three times a year. For more comprehensive coverage of economic policies and structural changes, the reader is referred to the EBRD’s Transition Report (published once a year in November) as well as country strategies and strategy updates, available on the EBRD’s website.

Overview

Most transition countries have begun to recover, but the pace of recovery remains slow on average, with increasing divergence across countries, and is now being overshadowed by Eurozone market volatility and increasing pressures to accelerate fiscal consolidation in East and West. In light of this, the path of recovery is exceptionally uncertain, with risks skewed to the downside in the short run, and more symmetric risks to both the upside and downside over the medium term.

The recovery has begun, but remains fragile, and is generally expected to be slower than in other emerging market regions. A sluggish recovery in the European Union, the region’s main trading partner, is dampening the potential for an export-driven rebound. The deep recessions of late 2008 and 2009 continue to have knock-on effects in the form of high non-performing loans and unemployment, which constrain credit growth and the recovery of domestic demand. Crisis-induced deficits and limited sovereign market access will require fiscal consolidation in many countries, which will also weigh on demand.

At the same time, there is increasing cross-country divergence in the pace of recovery. In south-eastern Europe (SEE), most recent data provide little evidence of a sustained recovery so far. Growth prospects in these countries have been revised downward since the last EBRD forecasts in January 2010. Country-specific developments related to political turmoil (Kyrgyz Republic) and trade shocks (Turkmenistan) also warrant downward revisions in growth projections for 2010. At the other extreme lie Turkey and Armenia where much faster recoveries appear to be underway, backed by restocking, government demand, a projected recovery in capital inflows (Turkey) and rising copper prices and remittances (Armenia). Russia and the Slovak Republic are also rebounding faster than originally expected, reflecting commodity price rises, the improvement in net capital flows (Russia) and a recovery in automobile exports (Slovak Republic).

Reflecting upward revisions in growth forecasts in several of the region’s largest economies, the average regional growth projection for 2010 has been revised up to 3.7

Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011

-8-6-4-202468

10

2008 2009 2010 2011EBRD region Western HemisphereEmerging Asia Middle East and North Africa

Sources: EBRD projections for EBRD region. IMF WEO April 2010 for other regions.

per cent from 3.3 per cent in January. The upward revisions mostly affect commodity exporters (Russia, but also Armenia and Mongolia) and recipients of renewed capital inflows (Ukraine, Poland, Turkey, and Hungary).

In the short term, risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, with a shift in the balance from domestic to external risks (see Box 1). The main drivers of domestic risks—rising unemployment and NPLs—are slowly levelling out in many countries in the region. Domestic risks in countries that were hard hit by the crisis – in particular, Ukraine – have also receded somewhat. In contrast, external risks have risen. Encouragingly, the crisis in Greece has not had significant spillovers to the transition region so far; however, this remains a concern, particularly in south-eastern European countries in which Greek banks are strongly represented. Another risk is weaker EU growth as a result of either fiscal consolidation, or renewed problems in the European banking sectors.

Nonperforming Loans (Index)

Unemployment Rate (Per cent)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jun08

Sep08

Dec08

Mar09

Jun09

Sep09

Dec09

Mar10

Jun10

Kazakhstan

Georgia

Mongolia

Latvia

RussiaUkraine

Turkey

Bulgaria

Slovak R.

Poland

Index June 2008

Hungary

Estonia

02468

1012141618

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

Russia Turkey CE SEE EEC CIS

Upside risks mainly arise from a stronger than projected increase in external demand, along with improvements in domestic fundamentals. Loose monetary policy in the Eurozone and restocking may yet translate into faster growth. If this were to occur, several countries in the region would benefit both from expanded trade opportunities and from capital inflows in search of higher yields. Inflation remains low, and some countries that experienced large depreciations continue to benefit from improved competitiveness, positioning them well for a recovery in external demand. Finally, several countries, including Hungary, have established multi-year fiscal consolidation programmes, which – if implemented – could meaningfully set them apart from fiscally weaker EU countries.

Box 1: A “Fan Chart” to Quantify External Risks to the Growth Outlook

In order to give a quantitative sense of the risks to growth in the transition region, the EBRD has recently developed a “fan chart” approach to growth forecasting. Because this approach requires time series data of reasonable length and quality, the approach is currently only applied for a group of 10 new EU member states (NMS) and Croatia. The fan chart provides a “confidence interval” around the baseline projection, which indicates the probability with which growth is expected to exceed, or fall short of, a particular level. For example, the chart indicates that with 50 per cent probability, growth in the NMS +Croatia group will be between 0.8 and 2.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010 in relation to the same quarter in 2009 (compared to a baseline forecast of 1.6 per cent). The fan chart is constructed using a three-step approach. First, an econometric model of growth in relation to external variables (including EU growth, world financial conditions, and energy price growth) was estimated using a Bayesian Vector-Autoregression. Second, the model is used to generate growth forecasts conditional on alternative scenarios for the external variables. Two scenarios were considered: a baseline scenario of a gradual EU recovery and a downside scenario of jitters in bond and equity markets and a double-dip EU recession. The baseline scenario was assigned a probability of 70 percent. The confidence intervals shown in the fan chart are generated as weighted averages of the confidence intervals of the two scenarios. In a final step, the confidence intervals were centered around the EBRD’s weighted forecast for the NMS+Croatia group. The chart shows risks “tilted” to the downside, reflecting the presence of the downside scenario. As can be seen from the chart, this “tilt” is no longer noticeable by the end of 2011, reflecting the considerable upside uncertainty inherent in the baseline scenario.

New EU Member States and Croatia: Aggregate Real GDP Growth Projections

(year on year)

-6-4-202468

10

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

50th percentile

90th percentile

Baseline

Central Europe and Baltic (CEB) Countries The CEB region is benefiting from stronger than expected inflows of short term capital and the modest recovery in western Europe, especially in a few sectors. The recovery in Eurozone industrial production remains strongest in equipment and intermediate goods, which benefits CEB countries through FDI linkages. We have therefore raised projections for average growth relative to January projections to 1.8 per cent this year, and 3.0 per cent in 2011. The outlook for the region remains highly heterogeneous, with Poland lifting the average substantially, while the deep recessions in Latvia and Lithuania have only just begun bottoming out. However, the pace of the recovery is constrained by the weak recovery in western Europe (the IMF forecast is for only 1 per cent), which itself depends on exports, while domestic demand remains anaemic.

The deteriorating outlook for Greek sovereign debt has to date not affected the CEB region excessively. Hungary, the country with the most severe fiscal vulnerabilities, saw only a minor spread widening and currency weakness, and domestic factors played a role in this. Nevertheless, over the short- to medium-term risks from sovereign debt markets in the Eurozone’s periphery are likely to continue to weigh on portfolio flows to emerging markets overall, and induce further weakness in the Eurozone recovery.

• We have again revised down our GDP projections for 2010 for Latvia and Lithuania. While some modest growth may already have resumed in the former, Lithuania experienced a substantial one-off contraction upon the closure of the Ignalina power plant, and both countries will still register contractions in year-on-year terms. Industrial production does not show a clear upward trend, unemployment is still rising, and NPLs should peak only later this year. By contrast, Estonia should show a return to moderate growth this year, and sentiment should be further buoyed by euro adoption in 2011, which looks likely following the favourable convergence assessment by the European Commission on May 12, 2010.

• The recession in Hungary likely came to an end in the fourth quarter of 2009, as export growth revived industrial production. Domestic demand remains weighed down by unemployment (which increased strongly in the first quarter) and weak credit activity. However, the country has benefited from a large improvement in financial market conditions, underpinned by the fiscal consolidation efforts of the outgoing socialist government, and this has allowed the central bank to significantly loosen monetary policy. As a result, Hungary is expected to return to modest growth in 2010. Risks arise from the fact that the fiscal programme of the incoming Fidesz-led government is not yet clear, and Hungary’s continuing vulnerability to changing investor sentiment due to its still high public debt burden.

• Relatively strong growth in Poland is led by resilient domestic demand, although household consumption is expected to be weighed down by rising unemployment. As the public debt burden approaches its constitutional limit of 60 percent, and fiscal deficits remain sizable (around 7 per cent of GDP), further measures to rein in the structural deficit are urgently needed.

• Elsewhere in the region, vulnerabilities remain relatively contained. Croatia remains vulnerable due to its largely unreformed state sector and exposure to unhedged currency risks. Similarly, Slovenia experienced a steep recession in 2009 and will only see a gradual return to growth. The lack of financial sector reforms and the large state sector may slow the recovery. In contrast, the Slovak Republic is expected to benefit from the recovery in global car production but also in the Eurozone more generally. Its financial system is liquid and accession to the Eurozone has mitigated downside risks.

South-Eastern European (SEE) Countries and Turkey

Most countries in this region are likely to record non-negative growth in 2010, but the pace of recovery is likely to remain sluggish throughout much of the year (with the notable exception of Turkey). High-frequency data for the first few months of 2010 provide little evidence of a sustained recovery. Downside risks have also increased recently. Although a recovery in the Eurozone – the main export market for most of this region – appears to be under way, its pace continues to be modest, and the crisis in Greece has the potential both for direct spillovers into several countries where trade, investment and financial linkages are strong, and for indirect effects through its impact on western European confidence and growth. External financing gaps have declined significantly over the past year, thanks to strong EU and IFI support and the continued commitment of foreign banks, but FDI shows little sign of recovery after a sharp drop in 2009 across the region. Fiscal challenges remain daunting, especially in light of the continued slow pace of recovery. Those countries with IMF programmes will be hard-pressed to meet their commitments this year. The share of non-performing loans is still rising, and lending from Western parent banks to their subsidiaries in the region may be subject to further stresses if external economic conditions deteriorate.

• Growth is likely to be negligible or negative in the two EU members, Bulgaria and Romania. In both countries, significant additional fiscal tightening has been agreed that will constrain growth in domestic demand growth. Growth in Bulgaria is further constrained by the need to improve competitiveness and the slowdown in foreign direct investment inflows that were a key growth driver pre-crisis.

• In the western Balkans, the highest growth rates in 2010, at just above 2 per cent, are likely to be in FYR Macedonia and Serbia. Both countries are aided by a recovery in metals prices, which helps key industries. In the case of Serbia, a major programme of infrastructure development is underway, helping to support growth. Elsewhere, Albania is the one country in this sub-region that managed positive growth in 2009, but growth is likely to decrease in 2010, reflecting the impact of recent floods, a slowdown both in capital inflows and in remittances as well as slower credit growth. The country is particularly vulnerable to a serious Greek downturn, as the majority of remittances into Albania come from migrants in Greece, many of whom work temporarily in seasonal jobs. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro are also expected to record barely positive growth in 2010, with both countries benefiting from the recent increase in the price of aluminium, the main export of each country. Bosnia and Herzegovina is in an election year, which makes significant reforms unlikely. In Montenegro, the biggest structural problem remains the restructuring of the giant aluminium conglomerate, KAP.

• In Turkey, a V-shaped rebound is expected this year and in 2011. The economy was hit hard last year by the financial crisis primarily as a result of its close trade links with the major industrialised economies. GDP fell by 4.7 per cent in 2009 as a whole, but industrial production and confidence indicators have since rebounded strongly as a result of a broad-based restocking and fiscal stimulus. In 2010, growth is expected to rebound on the back of government demand, increased capital inflows and a recovery in the Eurozone, with a projected growth rate of almost 6 per cent. However, Turkey will remain dependent on external finance.

Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (EEC)

This diverse group of countries has benefited from the recent improvement of market confidence in emerging markets and higher commodity prices. However, vulnerabilities remain significant in particular due to reliance on external demand to support growth (in particular, in the EU and Russia), terms of trade pressures (Belarus and Ukraine), and volatility of remittances (Armenia, Georgia and Moldova). Azerbaijan remains on an oil-dependent growth path, although most recent data suggest the rate of oil output expansion may be slowing down. Positive growth is expected in 2010 in all countries of this group, building on the base effects of the recent post-crisis output reversals. Risks to the outlook are related to future developments of external demand, commodity prices, and continued international support (all of the region’s countries except for Azerbaijan have negotiated IMF-supported programmes).

• The sharpest growth adjustment took place in Ukraine, where GDP fell by 15 per cent in 2009. The positive growth forecast for 2010 is driven by a partial recovery, after the collapse in output in the first quarter of 2009, and recent improvements in market sentiment. Market confidence returned to Ukraine after the presidential elections as the authorities focused on defining their structural reform and fiscal consolidation agenda and re-engaged in programme discussions with the IMF.

• Armenia has seen an exceptionally sharp output contraction as remittances fell, and the remittances-fuelled construction boom came to an abrupt halt. Preliminary data suggest that vigorous growth has returned in recent months following growth in remittances, an agreement on an IMF programme and substantial financing from other IFIs and bilateral donors.

• Belarus and Moldova have been affected by the crisis as a result of high export dependence on both Russia and the EU. With falling remittances, consumption growth (an important source of tax revenues) has slowed and Moldova has relied on IMF lending and bilateral funding for budgetary support. The immediate growth prospects in Moldova are limited by continuing political uncertainty. The ability of the Belarusian economy to cope with the crisis has been aided by large support from IMF, China and Russia. As support is decreased over time and energy prices remain high, its heavily managed economy is likely to experience pressures to undertake further structural adjustments.

• Economic vulnerabilities in Georgia (including a large trade deficit) continue to be partially mitigated by a generous aid package from a wide range of donors, which has partly compensated for the collapse of foreign direct investment.

• Economic growth in Azerbaijan will continue to be underpinned by increases in oil and gas production, although the pace of growth is expected to slow in 2010 and beyond.

Russia, Central Asia and Mongolia

Both the Russian and the Kazakh economies have been on a steep recovery path since the end of 2009, on the back of higher oil prices, large-scale fiscal stimulus packages and banking-system support. In both countries, several commercial banks have been taken over either by the government (Kazakhstan) or government-owned banks (Russia). Private sector credit growth has stopped due to the need for deleveraging in the banking system and concerns over borrowers’ creditworthiness, although in both countries NPL ratios started to bottom out as of early-2010. Both Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s outlook for growth and exchange rate stability remain highly dependent on a stable development of commodity prices, particularly of oil, but also global sentiment in capital flows to emerging markets. The Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan remain dependent on remittances inflows and undiversified economies that depend on shock-prone sectors such as gold mining, agriculture, and hydroelectric power. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan continue to suffer from severely repressed financial systems.

• In Russia, the growth momentum of late 2009 is likely to be sustained, implying a growth of about 4.4 per cent in 2010 (after a 7.9 per cent reduction in 2009). With real incomes increasing again, asset quality deterioration in the banking sector is levelling off and remains manageable under our baseline scenario, also given the dominance of the state in the banking system. Notwithstanding a gradual lowering of policy interest rates, to 8.25 per cent in March 2010, credit growth is expected to remain subdued, which will particularly affect small and medium-sized enterprises and the regions. The depletion of the fiscal reserve fund remains a concern, and could lead to greater macroeconomic volatility in response to swings in commodity prices.

• The economy in Kazakhstan is also recovering, with growth in 2010 forecast at 3.5 per cent on the back of increasing oil production and the demand stimulus parted by the “National Programme of Forced Industrial and Innovative Development of Kazakhstan for 2010-2014”. Independent of the success of this ambitious industrial policy, medium-term prospects for Kazakhstan remain good as the large Kashagan oilfield is expected to start production in 2013. There is also potential for expanding uranium, copper and grain production.

• Economic growth in 2010 is expected to be close to 4 per cent in Tajikistan and 12 and 7 per cent respectively in the gas and gold exporters Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The recent decline in exports of Turkmen gas to Russia is expected to be only partially offset by increased gas exports to China and Iran, resulting in lower growth in Turkmenistan. In the Kyrgyz Republic, the current forecast envisages an output contraction of 0.7 per cent in 2010, reflecting the impact of the April political upheaval, which interrupted an economic recovery process that was under way since Q4 2009. After a recession and a banking crisis in 2009, Mongolia is making a sharp V-shaped recovery with 2010 growth expected at 8 per cent, reflecting substantial mining-related FDI inflows that are expected to continue for a number of years.

GDP Growth forecasts compared**

2011

Old Forecast 1/ New Forecast 2/ Old Forecast 1/ New Forecast 2/ Forecast 2/

Central Europe and Baltics

Croatia -5.9 -5.8 0.6 0.3 1.8

Estonia -14.7 -14.1 -1.8 -0.4 3.3

Hungary -6.7 -6.3 -0.6 1.0 2.3

Latvia -17.9 -18.0 -2.0 -3.0 3.0

Lithuania -15.2 -15.2 -0.5 -1.5 3.0

Poland 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.3

Slovak Republic -5.3 -4.7 2.8 3.4 3.4

Slovenia -7.5 -7.8 1.9 1.3 2.2

Average* -3.2 -3.0 1.4 1.8 3.0

South-Eastern Europe

Albania 4.3 2.8 2.0 1.4 3.1

Bosnia and Herzegovina -4.4 -3.4 0.6 0.3 1.7

Bulgaria -4.8 -5.0 0.0 -1.2 3.0

FYR Macedonia -1.2 -0.7 2.0 2.2 2.5

Montenegro -4.3 -5.3 0.4 0.1 2.0

Romania -7.0 -7.1 1.3 0.0 3.0

Serbia -3.1 -3.0 2.4 2.1 3.2

Average* -5.4 -5.4 1.2 0.3 2.9

Eastern Europe and the Caucasus

Armenia -16.3 -14.2 2.0 10.0 3.0

Azerbaijan 9.3 9.3 9.0 6.0 5.0

Belarus 0.2 0.2 3.0 3.5 4.0

Georgia -4.5 -3.9 2.0 3.5 4.5

Moldova -6.7 -6.7 4.0 4.0 4.2

Ukraine -14.5 -15.1 3.0 4.0 4.0

Average* -7.8 -8.0 4.1 4.5 4.2

Turkey -5.6 -4.7 4.7 5.9 4.0

Russia -8.7 -7.9 3.9 4.4 4.6

Central Asia

Kazakhstan -1.3 1.2 3.5 3.5 5.3

Kyrgyz Republic 2.8 2.3 4.0 -0.7 7.5

Mongolia 0.0 -1.6 6.4 8.0 9.0

Tajikistan 3.0 3.4 3.5 4.0 5.0

Turkmenistan 6.0 6.0 14.0 12.0 13.0

Uzbekistan 7.0 7.0 7.8 8.2 7.0

Average* 0.9 2.5 5.4 5.2 6.5

Average all countries* -6.1 -5.5 3.3 3.7 4.0

1/ January 2010.

2/ May 2010.

* Weighted averages. The weights used for the growth rates are EBRD estimates of nominal dollar-GDP lagged by one year. Weighted averages for January 2010 forecasts shown above might vary from weighted averages published at the time due to revisions in nominal GDP weights.

GDP Growth (average)

(year over year percent change)

2009 2010

Table 1. Transition Region: Vulnerability Indicators 1/

Bank deposits

Loans/ deposits

Country risk

(latest) (latest) 12-May-10

Corp. House- holds

Total (end 2009) /3

Private (end 2009) /4

Short term (end 2009)

5/GDP Short term

debt 5/

State-owned banks

Foreign owned banks

% of GDP Private sector, in % (CDS spread, bps)

Central Europe and BalticsCroatia 48.8 23.0 25.8 72.6 35.9 87.8 49.8 28.8 13.5 21.3 74.0 105.7 4.4 90.8 68.1 117.8 202.0Estonia 92.5 47.0 45.4 87.9 7.2 131.4 131.4 62.2 3.6 18.7 30.1 135.8 0.0 98.2 73.9 166.9 …Hungary 36.3 16.2 20.0 61.3 78.3 133.0 116.6 34.5 45.4 35.2 102.1 114.7 3.5 84.0 57.1 139.3 208.8Latvia 85.8 44.9 40.9 92.3 36.1 160.0 134.0 54.0 7.2 27.6 51.2 142.8 19.5 65.7 121.3 298.0 327.1Lithuania 48.2 26.1 22.0 74.0 29.3 89.1 89.1 46.6 6.2 16.8 36.0 80.7 0.0 92.1 42.6 175.7 …Poland 15.1 3.8 11.3 32.6 51.0 65.0 65.0 21.0 81.6 19.0 90.2 77.4 18.3 76.5 48.7 111.3 113.3Slovak Republic 16.1 15.5 0.6 1.2 35.7 72.2 57.2 41.3 0.7* 0.8 1.9 93.5 0.8 99.2 65.0 … 71.7Slovenia 5.0 1.4 3.7 5.9 35.9 116.7 77.9 22.4 0.9* 1.8 8.1 128.3 15.4 31.1 121.4 161.1

South-Eastern EuropeAlbania 25.8 18.5 7.4 68.5 51.9 19.5 2.1 8.0 2.2 18.2 … 78.4 0.0 93.6 59.9 63.2 …Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.5 … … 7.8 28.8 43.2 … 8.9 2.8 16.2 … 84.8 0.9 95.0 49.5 170.7 …Bulgaria 44.3 34.9 9.3 58.9 14.8 103.5 88.6 49.5 15.1 32.1 64.8 104.2 2.0 83.9 64.6 137.8 209.3FYR Macedonia 24.9 16.7 8.2 56.0 21.3 52.7 52.7 26.3 1.9 20.9 79.4 62.9 1.2 93.1 46.7 100.3 …Montenegro … … … … 46.5 52.7 34.5 … 0.5 10.6 … 100.5 0.0 84.6 55.5 163.5 …Romania 24.0 11.8 12.2 60.2 23.7 49.1 42.3 27.7 44.4 27.6 99.6 58.7 5.6 87.7 33.6 118.5 224.3Serbia 29.9 19.6 10.3 71.6 31.6 79.2 79.2 16.3 13.9 31.5 193.2 62.8 16.0 75.3 37.2 131.4 347.5

Eastern Europe and the CaucasusArmenia 12.2 8.9 3.3 52.8 40.1 62.7 16.0 0.5 1.8 21.1 … 28.1 0.0 50.5 17.2 144.5 …Azerbaijan 10.1 … … 41.6 9.9 13.8 6.3 … 5.9 13.7 … 27.0 42.5 9.1 12.9 145.5 …Belarus 10.0 7.9 2.1 27.4 22.3 44.9 28.4 20.7 5.2 10.7 51.6 52.0 77.9 20.6 23.7 171.6 …Georgia 22.9 … … 75.8 … 35.1 35.1 10.1 2.2 20.6 203.6 46.5 0.0 90.8 23.8 125.9 …Moldova 15.4 14.0 1.3 43.1 30.0 83.3 59.8 30.9 1.5 27.1 87.7 62.1 9.1 31.6 37.2 95.9 …Ukraine 38.1 20.0 18.1 51.0 31.3 91.7 70.5 25.2 24.2 21.3 84.6 97.5 11.5 51.1 36.9 216.5 556.4

Turkey 11.6 … … 27.1 45.2 46.4 34.8 16.4 69.4 11.3 69.0 77.1 30.5 17.0 41.9 79.5 174.3

Russia 10.0 8.9 1.0 23.8 8.5 38.4 35.2 8.9 423.3 34.4 388.5 67.3 37.5 18.7 40.7 129.7 149.5

Central AsiaKazakhstan 22.9 17.6 5.3 47.8 8.5 92.5 92.5 12.5 24.5 22.8 183.0 72.9 0.5 12.9 24.4 196.0 173.0Kyrgyz Republic … … … … 54.8 52.8 3.0 2.7 1.5 33.2 … 29.8 9.9 72.0 ... .. ... …Mongolia … … … … 26.9 47.3 47.3 1.3 … … … 60.3 0.0 40.8 ... .. ... …Tajikistan 7.8 … … 31.3 41.0 53.8 15.7 0.7 … … … 22.2 ... ... 12.7 203.9 …Turkmenistan … … … … … … … 0.4 … … … 17.0 96.3 1.2 ... .. ... …Uzbekistan … … … … 11.2 13.8 2.7 2.0 … … … ... ... ... ... .. ... …

1/ National sources based on CEIC and IFS, unless stated otherwise.

2/ End 2008 for FYR Macedonia and Mongolia.

3/ End 2008 for Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Romania.

4/ End 2008 for Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, Romania and Slovenia.

5/ WEO April 2010

* Euro adoption

% FX credit in total lending

Total pvt sector

of which ExternalGovernment (end 2009) /2

Share in total assets:

billions US$ (latest)

Total assets as share of

GDP

in percent of

Domestic FX loans (latest) Public and External Debt Gross reserves Banking system (% of GDP) (end of 2008)(% GDP)

Table 2. Transition Region: Annual indicators and projections 1/

Forecast 3/

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009

Central Europe and BalticsCroatia 2.4 -5.8 0.3 1.8 0.2 -4.5 0.0 2.9 6.1 2.5 2.5 -1.4 -3.3 -9.2 -5.2 6.6 4.1Estonia -3.6 -14.1 -0.4 3.3 -9.2 -9.5 -0.5 4.1 10.4 0.0 2.4 -2.8 -1.7 -9.4 4.6 3.7 1.3Hungary 0.6 -6.3 1.0 2.3 -2.5 -4.0 0.4 3.5 6.1 4.2 3.0 -3.8 -4.0 -7.0 0.2 2.6 0.2Latvia -4.6 -18.0 -3.0 3.0 -10.3 -16.9 1.9 3.5 15.4 3.5 -3.0 -4.1 -9.0 -13.0 9.4 3.2 0.3Lithuania 2.8 -15.2 -1.5 3.0 -2.2 -12.1 -1.8 2.7 11.0 4.5 -0.2 -3.3 -8.9 -11.9 3.8 3.2 0.3Poland 5.0 1.7 2.6 3.3 2.6 3.6 1.7 3.8 4.3 3.5 2.5 -3.7 -7.1 -5.1 -1.6 2.2 2.0Slovak Republic 6.2 -4.7 3.4 3.4 1.6 -2.6 0.9 4.0 4.6 1.5 3.0 -2.3 -6.8 -6.6 -3.2 3.2 -0.5Slovenia 3.5 -7.8 1.3 2.2 -0.8 -5.5 1.7 2.2 5.7 1.0 2.0 -1.7 -5.5 -6.2 -1.0 1.0 -2.0

South-Eastern EuropeAlbania 7.0 2.8 1.4 3.1 2.8 -0.8 7.0 3.4 3.4 2.2 2.5 -5.7 -6.9 -15.7 -15.3 7.0 7.6Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.4 -3.4 0.3 1.7 … … … … 6.5 0.0 2.0 -3.1 -4.0 -15.0 -8.8 5.4 2.9Bulgaria 6.0 -5.0 -1.2 3.0 3.5 -5.9 1.5 2.6 12.3 2.7 1.9 1.8 -3.9 -24.0 -9.4 17.0 12.5FYR Macedonia 4.8 -0.7 2.2 2.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 3.1 8.3 -0.8 2.0 -1.0 -2.9 -12.8 -7.0 6.3 2.5Montenegro 7.0 -5.3 0.1 2.0 … … … … 7.4 3.4 1.5 1.5 -3.0 -33.6 -18.7 16.7 14.5Romania 7.1 -7.1 0.0 3.0 3.1 -6.5 2.6 1.9 7.9 5.6 3.8 -5.4 -8.3 -11.6 -4.5 4.6 2.9Serbia 5.5 -3.0 2.1 3.2 2.8 -1.6 1.5 3.9 11.7 8.4 6.0 -2.4 -4.5 -17.2 -5.5 5.3 4.2

Eastern Europe and the CaucasusArmenia 6.8 -14.2 10.0 3.0 -5.9 -8.4 12.9 5.0 9.0 3.4 7.0 -1.7 -7.5 -11.5 -15.2 7.8 8.0Azerbaijan 10.9 9.3 6.0 5.0 7.9 12.3 6.4 0.0 20.8 2.5 5.0 25.5 9.4 35.5 14.8 -1.2 -2.1Belarus 10.0 0.2 3.5 4.0 7.5 1.8 2.6 4.5 14.9 12.8 6.9 1.4 0.4 -8.4 -13.1 3.6 3.7Georgia 2.1 -3.9 3.5 4.5 -2.5 0.4 1.1 7.0 10.0 1.7 5.0 -6.4 -9.4 -22.7 -16.1 12.2 8.3Moldova 7.2 -6.7 4.0 4.2 6.2 -4.3 3.0 1.5 12.8 0.1 7.5 -1.0 -6.8 -16.7 -10.7 11.2 2.2Ukraine 2.2 -15.1 4.0 4.0 -8.0 -6.9 3.2 4.0 25.2 15.9 11.0 -3.2 -11.4 -7.1 -1.7 5.5 4.0

Turkey 0.9 -4.7 5.9 4.0 -7.0 6.0 0.6 5.2 10.4 6.3 9.6 -2.2 -5.5 -5.6 -2.2 2.1 1.0

Russia 5.6 -7.9 4.4 4.6 0.0 -3.8 4.6 4.8 14.1 11.7 6.9 4.8 -6.2 6.1 4.0 1.2 -0.6

Central AsiaKazakhstan 3.2 1.2 3.5 5.3 1.6 10.3 -1.9 4.2 17.2 7.3 7.0 1.1 -2.0 5.1 -3.2 7.9 7.6Kyrgyz Republic 7.6 2.3 -0.7 7.5 … … … … 24.5 6.9 7.1 -0.1 -3.8 -8.2 -7.9 5.2 1.3Mongolia 8.9 -1.6 8.0 9.0 4.4 3.8 8.0 9.0 26.8 6.3 7.9 -4.9 -5.4 -14.0 -5.6 11.3 9.8Tajikistan 7.9 3.4 4.0 5.0 … … … … 20.4 6.4 5.6 -6.1 -8.5 -7.9 -10.5 5.8 2.0Turkmenistan 10.5 6.0 12.0 13.0 … … … … 12.0 5.5 5.0 11.3 5.3 18.8 0.0 4.3 ..Uzbekistan 9.0 7.0 8.2 7.0 … … … … 12.7 12.5 10.6 10.5 2.0 12.8 7.6 2.5 2.5

1/ EBRD data and projections.2/ Concept typically used in expressing annual growth.3/ As of April 30, 2010.

Net FDI(% of GDP)

Forecast 3/

GDP Growth (average)(year over year percent change)2/

GDP Growth (end year)(Q4 over Q4 percent change)

Forecast 3/

Current Account(% of GDP)

Fiscal Balance(Gen. gov; % of GDP)

Inflation (average)(year over year percent change)2/

Table 3. Transition Region: Quarterly GDP actuals and projections, Q2 2008- Q4 2010 1/

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011

Central Europe and BalticsCroatia 0.1 -1.3 -0.6 -5.6 1.2 -0.6 0.7 -0.3 3.4 1.6 0.2 -6.7 -6.3 -5.7 -4.5 1.0 2.4 -5.8 0.3 1.8Estonia -0.5 -1.2 -4.7 -9.0 -2.3 -0.5 2.5 -2.3 -1.2 -3.2 -9.2 -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -9.5 -2.7 -3.6 -14.1 -0.4 3.3Hungary -0.2 -0.9 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.4 -2.5 -6.7 -7.5 -7.1 -4.0 0.1 0.6 -6.3 1.0 2.3Latvia -2.2 -1.4 -5.3 -10.7 -0.4 -4.0 -2.9 0.3 -1.8 -5.2 -10.3 -17.8 -18.4 -19.0 -16.9 -6.9 -4.6 -18.0 -3.0 3.0Lithuania 0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -13.7 -1.0 1.0 1.3 -4.1 5.1 2.1 -2.2 -13.3 -19.5 -14.2 -12.1 -2.9 2.8 -15.2 -1.5 3.0Poland 0.7 0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.4 5.9 5.5 2.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 3.6 3.1 5.0 1.7 2.6 3.3Slovak Republic 1.6 1.2 0.6 -8.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 0.3 7.3 6.8 1.6 -5.7 -5.5 -4.9 -2.6 5.2 6.2 -4.7 3.4 3.4Slovenia 0.7 0.3 -3.0 -6.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 5.4 3.6 -0.8 -8.2 -9.2 -8.3 -5.5 1.3 3.5 -7.8 1.3 2.2

South-Eastern EuropeAlbania 0.1 0.9 -1.4 2.2 4.4 -0.6 -2.4 0.2 9.3 9.3 2.8 2.0 6.0 4.0 -0.8 1.6 7.0 2.8 1.4 3.1Bosnia and Herzegovina … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 5.4 -3.4 0.3 1.7Bulgaria 1.7 0.0 -0.8 -4.0 -0.5 -0.1 -1.8 -1.7 7.1 6.8 3.5 -3.5 -4.9 -5.4 -5.9 -4.0 6.0 -5.0 -1.2 3.0FYR Macedonia 1.2 0.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.8 6.0 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.8 1.2 2.8 4.8 -0.7 2.2 2.5Montenegro … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 7.0 -5.3 0.1 2.0Romania 0.3 -0.1 -2.8 -4.6 -1.5 0.1 -1.5 -0.3 9.6 9.4 3.1 -6.2 -8.7 -7.1 -6.5 -2.6 7.1 -7.1 0.0 3.0Serbia -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -3.8 0.1 1.7 0.6 0.3 6.0 4.9 2.8 -4.1 -4.2 -2.3 -1.6 2.6 5.5 -3.0 2.1 3.2

Eastern Europe and the CaucasusArmenia 0.4 6.2 -16.2 3.9 -11.1 3.8 -4.3 19.6 9.6 15.4 -5.9 -6.1 -17.9 -19.8 -8.4 5.5 6.8 -14.2 10.0 3.0Azerbaijan 3.1 -0.7 2.1 -1.4 8.4 0.5 4.6 -7.5 14.3 10.5 7.9 4.1 8.4 9.7 12.3 5.4 10.9 9.3 6.0 5.0Belarus 2.0 2.0 -1.5 -1.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 0.4 10.4 11.2 7.5 1.1 -0.4 -1.1 1.8 4.0 10.0 0.2 3.5 4.0Georgia 1.9 -6.2 1.6 -2.0 -3.7 3.0 3.2 0.2 8.3 -3.9 -2.5 -5.1 -10.1 -1.2 0.4 2.6 2.1 -3.9 3.5 4.5Moldova 2.1 -0.7 -0.8 -7.7 -0.4 2.5 1.5 0.6 6.2 10.8 6.2 -6.9 -8.6 -7.5 -4.3 4.3 7.2 -6.7 4.0 4.2Ukraine 1.2 -0.3 -9.3 -13.3 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.5 6.1 6.3 -8.0 -20.2 -17.9 -16.0 -6.9 7.8 2.2 -15.1 4.0 4.0

Turkey -0.4 -1.2 -5.4 -7.0 6.6 2.9 2.0 0.8 2.6 0.9 -7.0 -14.5 -7.7 -2.9 6.0 13.4 0.9 -4.7 5.9 4.0

Russia 0.6 -0.6 -3.4 -5.8 -1.1 2.3 0.7 1.3 7.7 6.6 0.0 -9.4 -10.8 -7.7 -3.8 3.2 5.6 -7.9 4.4 4.6

Central AsiaKazakhstan 0.1 -0.6 -1.2 -2.5 1.7 2.1 8.6 -6.7 5.4 1.1 1.6 -4.5 -2.6 -0.3 10.3 6.5 3.2 1.2 3.5 5.3Kyrgyz Republic … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 7.6 2.3 -0.7 7.5Mongolia -0.2 1.4 -4.3 -0.6 0.8 0.4 3.6 1.5 10.0 9.0 4.4 -4.3 -3.0 -4.1 3.8 6.3 8.9 -1.6 8.0 9.0Tajikistan … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 7.9 3.4 4.0 5.0Turkmenistan … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 10.5 6.0 12.0 13.0Uzbekistan … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 9.0 7.0 8.2 7.0

1/ Q1 2010 data either published actual data or EBRD estimate based on short- term activity indicators.

2/ As of May 13, 2010.

3/ Concept typically used in expressing annual growth.

Forecast 2/

Forecast 2/2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

Forecast 2/

Quarterly GDP Growth Quarterly GDP growth GDP Growth (average)

(seasonally adjusted, quarter-on-quarter percent change) (year-on-year percent change) (year over year percent change) 3/

Table 4. Transition Region: Financial Market Indicators (Bloomberg, updated 12 May 2010)

Mar 1 2009 week ago latest Mar1 2009 week ago latest Mar 1 2009 week ago latest Mar 1 2009 week ago latest

Central Europe and BalticsCroatia 527.4 239.0 202.0 11.75 1.93 1.80 39.4 59.9 59.7 7.36 7.25 7.26Czech Republic 0.0 90.5 75.5 2.51 1.36 1.26 43.9 81.9 84.7 28.1 26.1 25.4Hungary 563.6 237.7 208.8 9.50 5.23 5.23 50.7 115.4 117.0 299.4 278.7 272.4Latvia 1050.0 347.7 327.1 8.14 1.04 1.16 41.5 70.8 69.8 0.71 0.71 0.71Poland 366.0 134.7 113.3 4.41 3.77 3.75 53.6 94.4 96.5 4.65 4.08 3.97Slovak Republic 211.7 82.2 71.7 … … … 76.4 50.4 52.3 … … …

South-Eastern EuropeBulgaria 597.4 239.7 209.3 6.81 4.19 4.19 23.4 36.4 36.1 … … …Romania 723.6 247.3 224.3 14.70 5.75 6.19 30.1 81.5 84.0 4.30 4.19 4.17Serbia 650.0 347.5 347.5 17.59 9.68 9.15 31.1 46.1 45.4 93.8 99.2 100.1

CISRussia 761.1 177.1 149.5 22.75 4.38 4.38 24.3 66.1 66.2 35.9 30.1 30.0Kazakhstan 1494.2 209.9 173.0 15.00 1.76 2.00 24.1 66.2 60.8 150.6 146.8 146.5Ukraine 3741.0 597.8 556.4 34.75 8.04 8.00 28.9 135.4 119.6 8.59 7.93 7.92

Turkey 487.4 191.4 174.3 12.56 7.38 7.57 72.4 170.0 174.6 1.70 1.54 1.52

1/ For CEB and SEE countries: reference currency is Euro; for CIS and Turkey reference currency is US dollar

Equities(index, July 1, 2008 = 100)

Currencies(national currency per € or US$) 1/

Country RiskCDS spread (bps)

Interbank rates(three month)

Figure 1. External environment

Export volumes, y-o-y, % Current account (annualized), % of GDP

-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

10152025

Bulgari

a

Croati

a

Czech

Estonia

HungaryLatv

ia

Lithua

nia

Moldova

Poland

Romania

Russia

Slovakia

Slovenia

Turkey

Ukraine

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009

-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

101520

Albania BiH

Bulgaria

Czech

Rep

ublic

Estonia

Hungary

Kazak

hstan

Latvi

a

Lithuan

ia

Maced

onia

Poland

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Slovakia

Sloven

ia

Turke

y

Ukraine

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service. Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Net lending from BIS-reporting banks, exch. rate adjusted, US$ bn FDI gross inflows, y-o-y, %

-15.6%

-1.8%

-9.8%

-15.0%

-11.9%

-7.0% -6.6%-5.3%

0.0%

-2.3%

0.2% 1.0%

-9.4%

2.7%

-2.7%

4.2%5.9%

-7.6%

-2.8%

-6.0%

-7.8%

-2.4%-4.8%

-1.3%

-6.1%

-0.6%-1.6%-2.0% -1.7%

-10.3%

3.1%

-0.7%

-8.0%-5.6% -5.5%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

AdvancedEurope

EmergingEurope 1/

Ukraine Russia CA andCaucasus

Latin America Emerging Asia2/

Mar-2008 Jun-2008 Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Mar-2009Jun-2009 Sep-2009 Dec-2009

1/ Emerging Europe excludes Russia and Ukraine. 2/ Emerging Asia excludes China, Central Asia and Caucasus.

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Bulgaria

Czech

Estonia

Kazak

hstan

Lithua

nia

Poland

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Turkey

Ukraine

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009

Source: BIS via CEIC data service.

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Real effective exchange rate, July 2008=100 Reserves, end of period, % of GDP

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jul-0

8

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-0

9

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Bulgaria Czech Republic HungaryPoland Romania RussiaUkraine

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Armen

ia

Azerb

aijan

Belaru

s

Bulgaria

Croati

a

Czech

Rep

.

Estonia

Georgia

Hungary

Kazak

hstan

Kyrgyz

Rep

.

Latvia

Lithuan

ia

Moldova

Poland

Romania

Russia

Turkey

Ukraine

Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2010

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

Global risk Parent banks CDS spreads

0102030405060708090

100

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

VIX EMBIG Europe EMBIG US high-yield

VIX

U.S. high-yield bond spreads

EMBI

EMBIG Europe

Source: Bloomberg.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10Societe Generale Intesa Sanpaolo SpACitigroup Inc Raiffeisen Zentralbank OesteUniCredit SpA ING Groep NV

Citigroup

UniCredit

Societe

Raiffeisen

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA

ING Groep NV

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 2. Currencies and financial market indicators (daily frequency)

Currencies

262

267

272

277

282

287

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-

10

Jan-

10

Dec-09

3.8

4.0

4.2

HUF/EUR

PLN / EUR

33.2

33.7

34.2

34.7

35.2

35.7

36.2

36.7

37.2

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-

10

Jan-

10

Dec-09

140

142

144

146

148

150

152

154

KZT/USD

RUB vs EUR/USD basket

92

94

96

98

100

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-

10

Jan-

10

Dec-09

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

Serbian dinar/EUR

RON/EUR

1.41

1.46

1.51

1.56

1.61

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-

10

Jan-

10

Dec-09

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

Turkish lira/USD

UAH/USD

Source: Bloomberg.

Sovereign risk (bond spreads)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

May-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-0

9

Sep-

09

Oct-0

9

Nov-0

9

Dec-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Bulgaria EMBI Hungary 10yrPoland 10yr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

May-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Russia EMBI Ukraine EMBIKazakhstan Turkey EMBI

Ukr

KazRuTur

Source: Bloomberg.

Stock markets (July 2008=100)

2030405060708090

100110120

Jul-0

8

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

MSCI EM MSCI EMEARussian RTS Czech PX

Ru

Cz

EMEA

EM

2030405060708090

100110120130140

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-0

8

Dec-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar-09

Apr-0

9

May-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-09

Sep-

09

Oct-09

Nov-0

9

Dec-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar-10

Apr-1

0

May-10

Hungary BUX Ukraine PFTSRomania Bet Bulgaria SOFIX

Ukr

Hu

Ro

Bul

Source: Bloomberg.

Interbank rates

0

4

8

12

16

20

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-

10

Jan-

10

Dec-09

Nov-09

Oct-09

Sep-09

Aug-09

Jul-0

9

Jun-

09

May-09

Latvia

Hungary

Lithuania

0

5

10

15

20

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-

10

Jan-

10

Dec-09

Nov-09

Oct-09

Sep-09

Aug-09

Jul-0

9

Jun-

09

May-09

Mosprime 3mKazprimeKievprime 3m

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 3. Indicators of real activity: GDP and industrial production

Real GDP, y-o-y change, %

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Belaru

s

Bulgar

ia

Georg

ia

Kazak

hstan

Maced

onia

Moldova

Roman

ia

Russia

Serbia

Ukraine

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Croati

a

Czech

R.

Estonia

HungaryLatv

ia

Lithuan

ia

Poland

Slovakia

Slovenia

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Industrial production, index, 2005=100, seasonally adjusted

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Czech R. EstoniaHungary LatviaLithuania Poland

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Croatia BulgariaRomania SloveniaSlovakia Turkey

Source: Eurostat.

Industrial production, y-o-y change, %

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Croatia Czech R.

Hungary Poland

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-0

8

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-0

9

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Estonia Latvia

Lithuania Slovakia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Bulgaria RomaniaSerbia Slovenia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-0

8

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-0

9

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Belarus KazakhstanRussia TurkeyUkraine

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Figure 4. Indicators of real activity: retail sales and confidence indexes

Retail sales, y-o-y change, %

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Croatia Czech R.

Hungary Poland

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Apr-08

Jun-0

8

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Slovakia Slovenia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Kazakhstan

Russia

Ukraine

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Bulgaria

Romania

Serbia

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Consumer confidence, seasonally adjusted balances, defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Czech RepublicEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaHungary

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Bulgaria Poland

Romania Slovenia

Slovakia

. Source: Eurostat.

Industrial confidence, seasonally adjusted balances, defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers

-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Czech RepublicEstoniaHungaryLatvia

i h i

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Bulgaria PolandRomania SloveniaSlovakia

Source: Eurostat.

Figure 5. Indicators of real activity: CPI and unemployment

CPI, y-o-y change, %

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Apr-08Jun-08

Aug-08Oct-0

8

Dec-08Feb-09

Apr-09Jun-09

Aug-09Oct-0

9

Dec-09Feb-10

Apr-10

Czech R.HungaryLatviaLithuania

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08Oct-0

8

Dec-08Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09Oct-0

9

Dec-09Feb-10

Apr-10

Croatia EstoniaPoland SlovakiaSlovenia

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Apr-08Jun-08

Aug-08Oct-0

8Dec-08

Feb-09Apr-0

9Jun-09

Aug-09Oct-0

9Dec-09

Feb-10Apr-1

0

Albania BiHBulgaria MontenegroRomania Serbia

-505

10152025303540

Apr-08Jun-08

Aug-08Oct-0

8

Dec-08Feb-09

Apr-09Jun-09

Aug-09Oct-0

9

Dec-09Feb-10

Apr-10

Kazakhstan RussiaUkraine Turkey

-10-505

10152025303540

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08Oct-0

8

Dec-08Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09Oct-0

9

Dec-09Feb-10

Apr-10

ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia

-505

10152025303540

Apr-08Jun-08

Aug-08Oct-0

8

Dec-08Feb-09

Apr-09Jun-09

Aug-09Oct-0

9

Dec-09Feb-10

Apr-10

Belarus

Moldova

Tajikistan

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Unemployment rate, %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Apr-08

Jun-

08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Bulgaria Czech R. EstoniaHungary Latvia PolandRomania

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-

09

Apr-09

Jun-

09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-

10

Apr-10

Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan

Russia Tajikistan Turkey

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Figure 6. Financial sector indicators: deposits by currency

Local currency total deposits, stocks. January 2008 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Croatia Czech RepublicHungary Poland

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Bulgaria Romania Slovenia

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Albania BiHFYR Macedonia Serbia

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Armenia AzerbaijanGeorgia BelarusTajikistan

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Kazakhstan MoldovaRussia TurkeyUkraine

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Foreign currency total deposits, stocks (FX adjusted) /1. January 2008 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Croatia Czech RepublicHungary Poland

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Bulgaria RomaniaSlovenia

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Albania BiHFYR Macedonia Serbia

406080

100120140160180200220240260

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgiaBelarusTajikistan

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Kazakhstan MoldovaRussia TurkeyUkraine

/1Composition of assumed FX Baskets (€ : $ weights): 100:0 for Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia; 90:10 for Croatia and Romania; 50:50 for Albania, Armenia, Bosnia, Czech Republic, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Hungary, Moldova and Turkey; 20:80 for Ukraine; 15:85 for Russia, 10:90 for Kazakhstan, 0:100 for Azerbaijan and Tajikistan and 30:40:30 as a €-$-RUB basket for Belarus.

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Figure 7. Financial sector indicators: new credit to private sector

Croatia (HRK mln) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Czech Republic (CZK mln) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-25000-20000-15000-10000-5000

05000

1000015000200002500030000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May

-2008

Jul-2

008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May

-2009

Jul-2

009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Estonia (EEK mln) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Sep

-2009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Se

p-200

9Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10M

ay-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Latvia (mln LVL) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-2

009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-20

10May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Lithuania (mln LTL) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Se

p-200

9Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10M

ay-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Se

p-200

9Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10M

ay-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Hungary (bn HUF) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-20

09M

ay-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-200-150-100

-500

50100150200250300

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Poland (mln PLN) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-

2009

May

-2009

Jul-2

009

Sep-2

009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-

10M

ay-10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-10

May

-10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Albania (mln ALL) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Sep

-2009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000Jan

-2008

Mar-

2008

May

-2008

Jul-2

008

Sep-2

008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-

2009

May

-2009

Jul-2

009

Sep-2

009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Bulgaria (mln BGN) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

FYR Macedonia (mln MKD) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-2

008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-20

09May

-2009

Jul-20

09Sep

-2009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-20

10May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Romania (mln RON) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Sep

-2009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Se

p-200

8Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09M

ar-20

09M

ay-20

09Ju

l-200

9Se

p-200

9Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10M

ay-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Serbia (mln RSD) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08M

ay-20

08Ju

l-200

8Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-

2009

May

-2009

Jul-2

009

Sep-2

009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-20

09M

ay-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Kazakhstan (mln KZT) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-200000

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-60000

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000Jan

-2008

Mar-20

08May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-20

09May

-2009

Jul-20

09Sep

-2009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-20

10May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Russia (bn RUB) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Jul

-2008

Sep-20

08Nov

-2008

Jan-20

09Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-20

08M

ar-20

08May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-

2009

May-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10M

ar-20

10May

-2010

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Ukraine (mln UAH) Net new credit (corporate) Net new credit (household)

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May

-2008

Jul-20

08Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-20

09M

ay-20

09Jul

-2009

Sep-2

009

Nov-20

09Jan

-2010

Mar-20

10M

ay-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Jan-20

08Mar-

2008

May-20

08Ju

l-200

8Sep

-2008

Nov-20

08Jan

-2009

Mar-20

09May

-2009

Jul-2

009

Sep-20

09Nov

-2009

Jan-20

10Mar-

2010

May-20

10

LCU FX (adj.) Total

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Figure 8. Financial sector indicators: private sector credit by currency components

Local currency private sector credit, amounts outstanding. January 2008 = 100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Latvia Lithuania Estonia

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Poland CzechHungary Slovenia

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Bulgaria SerbiaCroatia Romania

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

AlbaniaBiHFYR Macedonia

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

KazakhstanUkraineRussiaTurkey

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

ArmeniaAzerbaijanMoldova

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.

Foreign currency private sector credit, amounts outstanding (FX adjusted). January 2008 = 100

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Latvia Lithuania Estonia

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Poland CzechHungary Slovenia

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Bulgaria SerbiaCroatia Romania

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-

08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-

09

Jan-10

Apr-10

AlbaniaBiHFYR Macedonia

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Kazakhstan UkraineRussia Turkey

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

ArmeniaAzerbaijanMoldova

/1Composition of assumed FX Baskets (€ :$ weights): 100:0 for Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia; 90:10 for Croatia and Romania; 50:50 for Albania, Armenia, BiH, Czech Republic, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Hungary, Moldova and Turkey; 20:80 for Ukraine; 15:85 for Russia, 10:90 for Kazakhstan, 0:100 for Azerbaijan and Tajikistan and 30:40:30 as a €-$-RUB basket for Belarus.

Source: National authorities via CEIC data service.