Regional Climate Change Water Supply Planning Tools for ......HIST E2000 E2025 E2050 E2075 G2000...
Transcript of Regional Climate Change Water Supply Planning Tools for ......HIST E2000 E2025 E2050 E2075 G2000...
Regional Climate Change Water Supply Planning Tools
for Central Puget Sound
Austin Polebitski andRichard Palmer
Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of WashingtonSeattle, WA 98105-2700
www.tag.washington.edu
Regional MotivationMultiple agencies and organizations working together to develop data, information and pragmatic tools to assist in water resource and supply planning activities in the region. Regional Water Demand ForecastWater Supply Source Alternatives
Climate ChangeReclaimed WaterSource Exchange StrategiesSmall Water SystemsTributary Streamflows
Research Goal: Provide climate impacted streamflows and meteorological data to Water Demand and Water Supply Committees
Regional MotivationMultiple agencies and organizations working together to develop data, information and pragmatic tools to assist in water resource and supply planning activities in the region. Regional Water Demand ForecastWater Supply Source Alternatives
Climate ChangeReclaimed WaterSource Exchange StrategiesSmall Water SystemsTributary Streamflows
Research Goal: Provide climate impacted streamflows and meteorological data to Water Demand and Water Supply Committees
DeliverablesMeteorological Variables
Technical memorandum documenting the methods used, key assumptions, QA/QC efforts and results.Database of climate variables for defined scenarios and future years for specific sites.
Streamflow DataTechnical memorandum - for each portion of the WRIAs, documenting the methods used, key assumptions, model calibration and validation, QA/QC efforts and results.For each of the climate change scenarios, database of projected streamflows into local reservoirs.For each of the climate change scenarios, database of projected streamflows associated with environmental flows or other operational components.
Other SupportFramework for estimating potential future climate change impacts on municipal water demand and supply.Support to Municipal Water Demand Forecast and Water Supply Assessment Advisory Committees.Cloud cover StudyGroundwater Study
Building BlocksConceived as Team Building and as an ‘Ice-Breaker’
became extended, heated issue.Uncertainty: As with other science, our understanding will improve with time, uncertainties exist, but much is knownImpacts organized into six areas:
TemperaturePrecipitationSnowpack and GlaciersStreamflowsSea Level RiseSalmonid Habitat
Areas of interestGlobal trends National trends Pacific Northwest trendsPuget Sound Region
Available at: http://www.climate.tag.washington.edu
(Source: http://agexted.cas.psu.edu/FCS/mk/images/BuildingBlocks.jpg)
Building BlocksConceived as Team Building and as an ‘Ice-Breaker’
became extended, heated issue.Uncertainty: As with other science, our understanding will improve with time, uncertainties exist, but much is knownImpacts organized into six areas:
TemperaturePrecipitationSnowpack and GlaciersStreamflowsSea Level RiseSalmonid Habitat
Areas of interestGlobal trends National trends Pacific Northwest trendsPuget Sound Region
Available at: http://www.climate.tag.washington.edu
(Source: http://agexted.cas.psu.edu/FCS/mk/images/BuildingBlocks.jpg)
Building Blocks
Building Block 1 – The global average temperature has increased during the 20th century and is forecasted to increase in the 21st century.
Building Block 13 –Climate change, as described in Building Blocks 1-12, is forecasted to contribute toward stream flow and temperature conditions that have been shown to negatively impact freshwater and estuarine habitat of most species of salmonids in the Puget Sound watersheds.
Tech Memo #1 - Literature Review
Climate Change PrimerHistorical perspective of incorporating climate change into water resources planning
Discussion of GCMs, Downscaling Methods, and Hydrology Models
Incorporating uncertainty
Tech Memo #2 – Downscaling MethodologyDetails downscaling method in two different formats:
An in-depth discussion of the method and a case-study provided as a journal paperAn overview discussion of the method accompanied by a process diagram
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Impact Assessment Methodology
Tech Memo #3 – Website and Database FunctionalityDetails construction and functionality of web-based database for climate variablesWebsite contains historic and climate impacted precipitation and temperature data for 15 meteorological stations within planning areaSimulated historic and climate impacted streamflows are accessible via plotting function
Tech Memo #4 – Meteorological Variables
Evaluation of impacted climate data
Contains a quality control discussion of data and computer code used in generation of the dataProvides an assessment of future projections and likely impacts to temperature and precipitation for our region
Change in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (WY 1928 - 2004)2000
Meterological Stations in WRIAs 7 - 10
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Echam5_A2 2000 GISS_B1 2000 IPSL_A2 2000 Ensemble Average Historic
Change in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (WY 1928 - 2004)2025
Meterological Stations in WRIAs 7 - 10
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Echam5_A2 2025 GISS_B1 2025 IPSL_A2 2025 Ensemble Average Historic
Change in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (WY 1928 - 2004)2050
Meterological Stations in WRIAs 7 - 10
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Echam5_A2 2050 GISS_B1 2050 IPSL_A2 2050 Ensemble Average Historic
Change in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (WY 1928 - 2004)2075
Meterological Stations in WRIAs 7 - 10
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Echam5_A2 2075 GISS_B1 2075 IPSL_A2 2075 Ensemble Average Historic
Projected Changes in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (1928-2004) Climate for Western Washington
Tech Memo #5 – Streamflow GenerationEvaluation of climate impacted streamflows
Contains a detailed discussion on model development, calibration, and comparison to historic observed records Provides an assessment of future impacts to streamflow for the Tri-County Region
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DHSVM Historic and GCM 2025
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GISS_2075 ECHAM5_2075 IPSL_2075 DHSVM_Historic Ensemble_Avg_2075
Figure 7: Hydrograph of Sultan Reservoir Inflows for the 2000, 2025, 2050, and 2075 periods.
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Sultan River DJF Flows at Q1 (cfs)
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Tech Memo #6 and Executive Summary
Final Summarizing DocumentsIntegrate documents produced by CCTCMake suggestions for incorporating available data and uncertainty into water resources planning
Use of Data By Stakeholders and in Other Research
Water Supply Systems Modeling and Impacts
Each utility is evaluating system yield with climate impacted data
Water Demand Modeling Regional water supply will use temperature and rainfall elasticities
Wastewater ManagementEvaluate base waste water demand with regional demand model
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Related Issues
Evaluate impacts of climate change on extreme rainfall events and associated runoff -15
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GISS_B1 ECHAM5 IPSL_A2 EnsembleLinear (GISS_B1) Linear (ECHAM5) Linear (IPSL_A2) Linear (Ensemble)
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RMSE Pooled = 16.2% RMSE Indiv = 4.16%
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RMSE Pooled = 10.55% RMSE Indiv = 4.22%
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RMSE Pooled = 7.56% RMSE Indiv = 5.86%
Over 20 half-day meetings/ workshops to establish study objectives and approachSignificant participation from over 15 regional agencies and stakeholdersConsensus achievedResults incorporated into evaluation of supply and demand alternatives in regional process
http://www.tag.washington.edu/projects/kingcounty.html
Thank you!
www.climate.tag.washington.eduCCTC Work:
www.tag.washington.eduTAG Work:
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RMSE Pooled = 16.2% RMSE Indiv = 4.16%
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RMSE Pooled = 10.55% RMSE Indiv = 4.22%
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RMSE Pooled = 7.56% RMSE Indiv = 5.86%