Red StickerRegulatory Proposal WorkshopMAY 16, 2018 – EL MONTE

MAY 17, 2018 – SACRAMENTO

Outline

• Purpose of CARB Regulation

• Status of CARB Red Sticker Program

• Need for Emission Reductions

• Key Elements of Regulatory Proposal

• Uncontrolled Emissions and Projected Reductions

• Evaluation of Cost Effectiveness

• Rulemaking Timeline and Next Steps

2

Why Are We Here?

• California has the worst air quality in the nation

• CARB develops regulations to comply with the federal Clean Air Act requirements

• This regulation will help California obtain the emission reductions needed for ozone attainment

• CARB’s proposed regulations for Red Sticker will help satisfy commitments set in California’s State Implementation Plan

3

State Implementation Plan (SIP)

• SIP outlines plan for compliance

• SIP requires reductions from all categories, including mobile sources

• Examples of mobile sources regulated by CARB include cars, trucks, lawn mowers, off-road recreational vehicles, and boats

4

OHRV Regulatory History

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1994: CARB adopts 1st

exhaust standards

1998: CARB creates

Red Sticker Program

2013: CARB adopts

evaporative standards;

Board directs staff to conduct

Red Sticker assessment

2006: U.S. EPA adopts

exhaust and evaporative

emissions standards

defines competition

OFF-HIGHWAY MOTORCYCLE (OHMC)

ALL-TERRAIN VEHICLE (ATV)

2017: Board directs staff to

sunset Red Sticker Program

Almost All Red Stickers Are OHMCs

• CARB’s regulation applies to all off-road motorcycles (OHMC) and all-terrain vehicles (ATV) that are certified according to section 2412(f) (Red Sticker)

• According to certification data for MY2012-2016, most Red Sticker vehicles are OHMCs

• The focus of the proposal is on OHMCs

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0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1 2

Po

pu

lati

on

Green and Red Sticker Registration Type (MY 2012-2016)

Green Sticker

Red Sticker

Intent Of The Red Sticker ProgramORIGINAL PURPOSE OF PROGRAM ASSESSMENT FINDINGS

Delay 1998 exhaust standards to ensure OHRV availability

Ease transition to cleaner technology

Limit summertime exhaust emissions from OHVs in ozone

non-attainment areas

Over 3 times as many Green Sticker models available than in

1998

Technology has developed, but transition to Green Sticker has not

occurred as anticipated

Red Sticker OHVs are operated in ozone non-attainment areas

during the summer

Allow riders to practice for competitive events on public land

Red Sticker OHMCs are predominately competition vehicles used for recreation

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Status Of CARB Red Sticker Program

• Program was originally develop to be a temporary solution for manufacturers◦ Program still exists more than 20 years later

• Does not provide expected emissions benefits◦ Year round Red Sticker OHMC operation results in uncontrolled exhaust emissions

• Problematic for state agencies◦ Enforcement challenges

◦ Registration difficulties

• Allows for manufacturers to avoid complying with MY2018 evaporative standards

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Drop In Green Sticker Certifications For MY2018

• Implementation year for 2013 evaporative rulemaking more than 75% drop in Green Sticker certification◦ Noted decrease in Green Sticker certification

◦ Green Sticker models moved to Red Sticker certification

◦ No OHMCs have been certified for evaporative compliance

107 111

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166204

185

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2016 2017 2018

Red and Green Sticker OHMC Executive Orders Issued by Year

75% drop in Green Sticker

certification

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Evaporative Emissions Comparison

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2

4

6

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20

22

24

26

gram

s R

OG

/day

Red Sticker

Carbureted

OHRV

2018 Passenger

Car Standards

2018 Green Sticker

OHRV Standards

0.35 g/day1

1 g/day2

3x 2018 Car

Emissions

1 Source: 2018 Passenger car limit2 Source: 2018 Green Sticker standard3 Source: CARB test dataRed Sticker

Fuel Injection

OHRV

3.4 g/day3

10x 2018 Car

Emissions

15-26 g/day3

40-70x 2018 Car

Emissions

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

g H

C/m

i

2018 Passenger

Car Standards

Exhaust Emissions Comparison

Red Sticker

2-Stroke OHRV

2018 Green Sticker

OHRV Standards

0.075 g/mi1

1.9 g/mi2

25x 2018 Car

Emissions 1 Source: CARB LEV III Standard2 Source: CARB OHRV Emissions Standard3 Source :CARB Emissions Testing 2015

Red Sticker

4-stroke

OHRV

2.6 g/mi3

35x 2018 Car

Emissions

34.2 g/mi3

456x 2018 Car

Emissions

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Calendar Year

Current Population of Recreational Vehicles

All Other Recreational VehiclesOHMC Green StickerOHMC Red StickerOHMC Red sticker G2

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Population Of OHRVs

<20% of population

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5

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RO

G (

tpd

)

Calendar Year

Updated Distribution of ROG (tpd) from Recreational Vehicles*

All Other Recreational VehiclesOHMCOHMC Red StickerOHMC Red Sticker G2

*Statewide Summer

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Statewide Summer ROG Emissions

70% of emissions

CARB Priorities For A Regulatory Proposal

1. Reduce emissions◦ Eliminate future sales of uncontrolled vehicles

◦ Realize expected benefits of 2013 evaporative rule

◦ Set stage for future emission reductions

2. Eliminate inconsistency with federal rules

3. Reduce enforcement burden of existing Red Sticker Program

4. Minimizing impact to vehicle availability

5. Accelerate development and adoption of zero-emissions OHRV

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Key Elements Of Regulatory Proposal

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Step I: Sunset Red Sticker Program Establish date to end the sale of Red Sticker OHVs

Transition to green sticker controls

Step III: Evaluate New Emissions Standards

Transition to cleaner engine technologies Incentivize zero emission technologies

Step II: Clarify Racing Exemption Define competition

Protect exemption for true racing purposes

Step I: Sunset Red Sticker Program Establish date to end the sale of Red Sticker OHRVs

Transition to Green Sticker controls

Step II: Clarify Racing Exemption Define competition

Protect exemption for true racing purposes

Sunset Red Sticker Program

• Eliminate Red Sticker sales – MY2022

• Establish two emissions categories for off-highway motorcycles, cap percentage of Category 2 and reduce over time

◦ Both categories are CARB certified, no usage restrictions

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Exhaust Evaporative Comments

Category 1(CARB)

1.2 g/km HC 1 g/day TOG • No change

Category 2(U.S. EPA)

2.0 g/km HC + NOx Hose/tank perm• Fleet averaging is allowed• Most Red Sticker 4-strokes can meet this

Step I

Sunset Red Sticker Program (Cont.)• Cap the percentage of Category 2 OHMCs that can be sold - reduce percentage over time, transition to Category 1

• ZEM sales provide incentives in percentage and fleet average

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Model Year Maximum Percentage of Category 2 off-road

motorcycles that may be sold

2022 55%

2023 45%

2024 35%

2025 25%

2026 15%

2027 5%

2028 0%

Step I

• Starting on January 1, 2025:◦ No seasonal restrictions for Red Sticker vehicles

◦ All the restricted riding areas will now allow for year-round riding

◦ Existing Red Sticker bikes will be grandfathered in

◦ Registration sticker may be either green or red, no difference in access or registration

Lifting Red Sticker Riding Restrictions

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Step I

• Uncertified vehicles can still be sold◦ Closed course, competition only

• Public OHV areas with private tracks/racing events will still allow competition riding ◦ Ex: Hollister Hills, Prairie City, Carnegie, etc.

• CARB will work with dealers and manufacturers to inform riders about use of competition vehicles

What About Competition OHMCs?

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Step I

-1.000

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

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7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

RO

G +

NO

X (

Ton

s/d

ay)

Calendar Year

Baseline vs. Regulatory Proposal

Emission Reductions From ProposalStep I

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OHMC EmissionsBusiness as Usual

OHMC Regulatory Proposal

Emissions Reductions Are Significant

0

1

2

3

4

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ton

s R

OG

Per

Day

Board Hearing Year

Emission Reductions from Recent Regulations

Motor Vehicles*(Car Scrap)

Gas Dispensing Facilities

Aerosols

OHRV Evap

Marine Watercraft

Red StickerProposal

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Step I

* - ROG + NOx

UTV, 10773, 39%

ATV, 6592, 24%

OHMC Green, 4775, 18%

OHMC Red 4-Stroke, Fuel Injected, 2782, 10%

OHMC Red 4-Stroke, Carbureted, 258, 1%

OHMC Red 2-stroke, 2152, 8%

2016 Model Year OHRV Registered in California

Industry-Wide: Model Availability Will Not Be Significantly Impacted

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Step I

Additional Proposed Regulatory Changes

• Lower displacement consideration for evaporative requirements◦ Section 2416(b)

• Additional evaporative test fuel ◦ TP-933

• Zero-emission definition/credits◦ Section 2411

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Step I

Evaluation Of Cost Effectiveness

• Cost effectiveness is a key consideration when the Board decides to approve or reject the staff’s proposal

• Cost effectiveness is a ratio of a OHMC’s estimated increased retail cost divided by the projected lifetime emission reductions ($/lb)

• Evaporative costs• Accounted for in 2013 Rulemaking

• Exhaust costs◦ Certification and testing costs to meet Category 1/2

◦ CARB is seeking incremental costs from manufacturers to comply from Category 2 to Category 1

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Marine Watercraft

Aerosols

OHRVs

Gas Dispensing Facilities

Motor Vehicles*

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Do

llars

Per

Po

un

d o

f Po

lluta

nt

(RO

G)

Board Hearing Year

Historical Cost Effectiveness

Step I

* - ROG + NOx

Rulemaking Timeline

• Receive and evaluate stakeholder comments – June 15, 2018

• Finalize proposal, staff report, and fiscal/economic analysis – July 2018

• Documents released for formal comment period – September 4, 2018

• Board Hearing – October 25, 2018

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Step I

Clarify The Racing Exemption

• Develop single competition definition for all categories

• Protect exemption for true racing purposes• Provide clarity on exempted vehicle use

• Eliminate excess emissions associated with misuse

• Rulemaking by Enforcement Division – Early 2019

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Step II

Evaluate Further Emission Reductions

• Evaluate the need for more stringent standards for OHRV◦ Conduct control technology assessment

◦ Perform economic analysis/cost surveys

• Evaluate additional zero emissions vehicle incentives

• Encourage development of zero-emissions competition classes

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Step III

Scott Monday– Staff Air Pollution Specialist – Red Sticker Project Lead

(916) 445-9319, scott.monday@arb.ca.gov

Scott Bacon – Manager

(916) 322-8949, scott.bacon@arb.ca.gov

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For more information and to sign up for our list serve, please visit:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/offroad/orrec/redsticker.htm

Contacts

Questions And Comments

?

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