Red Pill, Blue Pill - Decision Making in Projects

Red Pill, Blue Pill

Decision Making in Projects

Simona Bonghez, Ph.D.

Director, Colors in Projects

PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2013 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.


Agenda

The Message (and definitions)

Decision making process

Decision making models

Whats influencing us, whats stopping us


List of Important Interpersonal Skills (PMBOK Guide, 5th Ed.)

Leadership

Team building

Motivation

Communication

Influencing

Decision making

Political and cultural awareness

Negotiation


The Message

You take the blue pill -- the story ends,

you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.

You take the red pill -- you stay in Wonderland

and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.


The Message

Decisions are necessary

We make decisions every day

Its everyones responsibility to take decisions and accept the

outcomes of the decisions

We all have freedom of choice, but you will never have freedom of

consequences.


The Definition

Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker.

Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and we want not only to identify as many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that:

has the highest probability of success or effectiveness and

best fits with our goals, desires, lifestyle, values, and so on.

(Harris, 2012)

PROJECT MANAGERS

WHAT MY TEAM

THINK I DO

WHAT MY BOSS

THINKS I DO

WHAT MY FRIENDS

THINK I DO

WHAT MY WIFE

THINKS I DO

WHAT I THINK I DO WHAT I REALLY DO


Decision making levels in projects

Organizational perspective alignment to business objectives

Related to project alignment to organizational strategy, project governance, project management approach, etc

Strategic

Project Management perspective project management processes, tools and techniques

Related to project management processes, project management plan

Tactical

Product, Service or Result perspective project scope

Related to project activities Operational


Decision making levels in projects

Organizational perspective alignment to business objectives

Made by the project steering committee

Related to project alignment to organizational strategy, project governance, project management approach, etc

Strategic

Project Management perspective project management processes, tools and techniques

Made by the project manager

Related to project management processes, project management plan

Tactical

Product, Service or Result perspective project scope

Made by the project manager and/or project team members

Related to project activities Operational


Key decision points in projects

Project selection

Deciding upon the project management methodology or

project management processes to be followed

Choosing the project team

Establishing the project control points

Go/no go decisions


Importance of the context

Germany

Sober driver

Drunk driver


Importance of the context

Germany Romania

Sober driver

Drunk driver

Drunk driver

Sober driver


Key decision points in projects


Agenda






Frogs on the log

Three frogs on the log. One decides to leave;

how many frogs remain on the log?


Decision-making process

(according Peter Drucker)

Classifying the problem

Defining the problem

Specifying the answer to the problem

Deciding what is right, rather than what is acceptable

Converting decision into action

Validating the effectiveness of the decision

Defining the problem

Specifying the answer

Deciding Acting Classifying the problem Validating


Agenda







Rational models

Intuitive models

Rational-iterative models



Rational models

Intuitive models

Rational-iterative models

The decision making process is

intuition based on 95% of the time...

Gary Klein


Available time for

making a decision

Mainly rational model

Both rational and

intuitive models

Mainly intuitive model

(relying on gut feeling)

Mainly intuitive model

(relying on previous

experiences)

Experience in the subject area


Recognition Primed

Decision Making Model

How it works:

pick up cues and indicators

recognize patterns

choose a single course of action (an action script)

run the action script through a mental simulation

alter the script


Agenda





29 29

Biases in Decision Situations

Availability heuristics

Anchoring

Sunk cost bias

Premature termination of search for evidence

Selective perception

Wishful thinking or optimism bias

Choice-supportive bias

Recency or repetition bias

Framing

Overconfidence

...

30

Welcome to

Our Friendly Casino This year 168,368 people lost $560

milion here.

5% of our guest divorced,

1% became alcoholics,

and 0,4% committed sucide

(Virine and Trumper, 2008)

Availability Heuristic

31 31

Anchoring trap

Is the population of Turkey

greater than 35 milion?

What is your best estimate of

Turkeys population?

Is the population of Turkey

greater than 100 milion?

What is your best estimate of

Turkeys population?

(Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa, 1998)

32

Sunk Cost Bias


Whats stopping us

Failure following you

wherever you go

35

35

... I knew the woodpeckers were a mistake ...


Whats stopping us (cont.)

Consider failure as tuition

Analyze cause of failure, identify new approaches,

improvements

Our greatest glory is not in never falling

but in rising every time we fall.

Confucius


Whats stopping us (cont.)

The best is the enemy of the good

Franois-Marie Arouet

(Voltaire)


The End

The secret of being a bore is

to tell everything

Franois-Marie Arouet (Voltaire)

39

Simona Bonghez, Ph.D Director, Colors in Projects

www.colorsinprojects.ro

Thank you

Red Pill, Blue Pill - Decision Making in Projects

Documents

Transcript of Red Pill, Blue Pill - Decision Making in Projects