Recent Trends in the Northwest

Presentation to:

Opportunity Knocks Agribusiness ConferenceNorth Battleford, SaskatchewanJanuary 30, 2008 Doug Elliott

Sask Trends Monitor444 19th Avenue

Regina, SaskatchewanS4N 1H1

306-522-5515sasktrends@sasktel.net

www.sasktrends.ca

Jan 30, 2008 2

Background

A number of different statistical profiles focusing on different social, demographic, and economic aspects of the region and using different boundaries have been prepared for the Northwest.

Much of the information that is needed for these profiles is from the Statistics Canada census.

Not all of the 2006 census data has been released yet. To date we have population, age, gender, Aboriginal identity, immigration, family structures, and information about dwellings. The key economic variables – completed education, employment, and income – will not be released until the Spring.

This presentation is a blend of recent information about the region. Some is from the census and some is from other sources.

Jan 30, 2008 3

The Region

There is some consistency between the administrative regions used by Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food and the region that has been used by what is now the Ministry of Innovation and Enterprise.

Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics in this material cover the region shown in the map –the one used for the previous RECD analysis.

There is much less consistency with regard to credit union market areas, regional college boundaries, community futures regions, or REDA boundaries.

Saskatoon

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Demographic Trends

This information is from the 2006 Census.

Jan 30, 2008 5

Population

The population in the Northwest region was 78,210 in 2006. There has been a drop of 0.3% per year on average from 2001 to 2006, about the same rate of decline as in the province as a whole.

Battleford/North Battleford accounts for 22% of the region’s population.

The population in the Northwest, like the population in Saskatchewan as a whole, is about where it was in 1981.

Population Trends, 1981 to 2006

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Northwest

Saskatchewan

1981=100

Jan 30, 2008 6

Population Change by RM, 2001 to 2006

The population is growing in the northern part of the region and declining in North Battleford and the southern part.

From 2001 to 2006, the populations in Lloydminster and Meadow Lake each grew by 0.7% per year.

In Battleford/North Battleford, the population dropped by an average of 0.8% per year from 2001 to 2006.

After increasing sharply in the 1990s, the on Reserve population increased by less than 1% from 2001 to 2006.Saskatoon

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Average Annual Population Change from 2001 to 2006(Provincial Average = 0.2% decline per year)

IncreaseDeclined 0% to 0.9% per yearDeclined 1% to 2.9% per yearDeclined more than 3% per year

Jan 30, 2008 7

Age Distribution

Relative to the province as a whole, the Northwest has:

• relatively more people under twenty (31% vs. 27%); and

• relatively fewer over fifty (30½% vs. 33%).

The age distribution is strongly influenced by the large and relatively young Aboriginal population in the region.

Age Distribution in 2006

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 74

75 to 84

85 plusNorthwestSaskatchewan

Jan 30, 2008 8

Age by RM

The population of young adults is highest around Lloydminster and lowest east of North Battleford.

The proportion of the population in the 20 to 39 age group was, in 2006:

• 24% in North Battleford;

• 39% in Lloydminster; and

• 26% in Meadow Lake.

Saskatoon

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

2006 Population of Young Adults (20 to 39) as % of Total(provincial average = 24.5%)

24% or more20% to 23.9%16% to 19.9%Less than 16%

Jan 30, 2008 9

Aboriginal Population

The Aboriginal population in Saskatchewan didn’t increase as much as expected from 2001 to 2006. The increase was 1.7% per year on average compared with 3.5% per year on average between 1996 and 2001.

The increase in North Battleford/Battleford was higher, 2.2% per year. The city has the second highest proportion in Saskatchewan.

Aboriginal Population as Percentage of the Total, 2006

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Lloydminster SK

Yorkton

Saskatoon

Regina

Moose Jaw

Estevan

Swift Current

All other

Provincial Total

First NationsMétis and Other

Jan 30, 2008 10

Aboriginal Population by RM

The Aboriginal population is concentrated in the northern part of the region and around North Battleford.

The proportions are well below the provincial average in the southern part of the region.

The proportion of the population who are Aboriginal is:

• 24% in North Battleford,

• 15% in Lloydminster, and

• 40% in Meadow Lake.Saskatoon

Prin

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Aboriginal Identity as Percentage of Population, 2006(provincial average = 14.9%)

15% or more5% to 14.9%1% to 4.9%

Less than 1%

Jan 30, 2008 11

Households - Age

The housing stock is quite a bit newer in the Northwest than in other parts of the province.

For example, 34% of the dwellings (houses and apartments) have been built since 1981 compared with 30% in the province as a whole.

This is partly because of the growth on Reserve where 7% of Northwest dwellings are located.

Year of Construction, Private Dwellings

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

before1946

1946 to1960

1961 to1970

1971 to1980

1981 to1990

1991 to2000

2001 to2006

SaskatchewanNorthwest

% of all dwellings

Jan 30, 2008 12

Households – Condition

In spite of their relative newness, the condition of the housing stock is much poorer than in the province as a whole.

In 2006, 16% of the occupants reported that their dwellings were in need of major repair compared with 10½% for the province as a whole.

Condition of Private Dwellings (according to occupant)

51%

33%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Regular maintenance only Needs minor repairs Needs major repairs

SaskatchewanNorthwest

% of all dwellings

Jan 30, 2008 13

Age of Housing Stock by RM

The new housing activity in the past ten years has been concentrated in the northern and western parts of the region.

The proportion of housing stock that is less than ten years old was, in 2006:

• 2% in North Battleford,

• 14% in Lloydminster, and

• 9% in Meadow Lake.

Saskatoon

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Percentage of Dwellings Built Since 1996(provincial average = 9.6%)

10% or more5% to 9.9%1% to 4.9%

Less than 1%

Jan 30, 2008 14

Housing Condition by RM

The lower quality of housing in the region is not exclusive to Reserves. It is evident throughout the region.

The proportion of households in need of major repair was:

• 12% in North Battleford,

• 9% in Lloydminster, and

• 10% in Meadow Lake.

Saskatoon

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Percentage of Dwellings in Need of Major Repairs, 2006(provincial average = 10.5%)

15% or more10% to 14.9%

7.5% to 9.9%Less than 7.5%

Selected Results: Census of Agriculture

These statistics are from the 2006 census of agriculture.

Jan 30, 2008 16

Number of Farms

According to the census, there were 5,047 farm operations and 6,685 farm operators in the Northwest region in 2006.

To be considered as a “census farm”, you need gross revenues from farm products of at least $2,500. So we are including the larger market gardens and some “hobby” farms.

The number of farms is declining at about the same rate as in other parts of Saskatchewan.

Number of "Census" Farms

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

1991 1996 2001 200640,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Northwest(left scale)

Saskatchewan(right scale)

Jan 30, 2008 17

Type of Farm

Cattle ranching is the main source of revenue for 38% of the farms in the Northwest.

Except for the Southwest, this is the highest percentage in Saskatchewan.

The proportion is below the provincial average around North Battleford and in the southern part of the region.

It is well above the provincial average in the northern part of the region.

Estevan

Weyburn

ReginaMoose Jaw

Swift Current

Yorkton

Saskatoon

Kindersley

Melfort

Humboldt

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Cattle Ranching is Main Source of Income (% of farms)(provincial average = 28% of farms)

50% or more30% to 49%15% to 29%Less than 15%

Jan 30, 2008 18

Gross Revenue per Acre (2005)

The average Northwest farm had 1,420 acres, had gross revenues of $134,000 and gross expenses of $116,200 in 2005.

Gross revenue (cash receipts) per acre are affected by farm types and the quality of the crop in a given year.

Farms in the Northwest are grossing about as much as those elsewhere in Saskatchewan although 2005 was not a good year.

Gross Revenue per Acre

$69

$84

$91$94

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1991 1996 2001 2006

SaskatchewanNorthwest

Jan 30, 2008 19

Gross Revenue per Acre in 2005

Receipts were healthier south of the river in 2005.

In most of the northern part of the region, receipts per acre were well below the provincial average. This will be largely the result of low cattle prices.

Estevan

Weyburn

ReginaMoose Jaw

Swift Current

Yorkton

Saskatoon

Kindersley

Melfort

Humboldt

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Gross Revenue per Acre (2005)(provincial average = $99)

$100 or more$90 to $99$80 to $89

Less than $80

Jan 30, 2008 20

Net Income as a Percentage of Assets

This is another way to look at profitability – a kind of “return on assets” for the farm operation.

It takes into account, the declining or increasing value of the livestock or land.

Assets on the average farm in the Northwest were valued at $848,000 in 2005.

Net Income as a Percentage of Assets

3.4%

4.0%

2.2% 2.1%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1991 1996 2001 2006

SaskatchewanNorthwest

Jan 30, 2008 21

Net Cash Income as a Percentage of Assets in 2005

The region was near the provincial average in terms of this measure of profitability.

Returns were a lot lower around Prince Albert and along the east side. They were higher in the southwest.

Estevan

Weyburn

ReginaMoose Jaw

Swift Current

Yorkton

Saskatoon

Kindersley

Melfort

Humboldt

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Net Cash Income as % of Assets (2005)(provincial average = 2.1%)

3.0% or more2.0% to 2.9%1.0% to 1.9%Less than 1.0%

Other Data

Jan 30, 2008 23

Tax Filer Income

Income tax records can be used to determine income trends until the more comprehensive data from the census is released.

Average incomes in the Northwest remain well below the provincial average.

In 2005, average incomes were 10% below the provincial average. The differential was 12% in the mid 1990s.

Average Gross Income per Taxfiler

$20

$22

$24

$26

$28

$30

$32

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Northwest

Saskatchewan

$ thousands

Jan 30, 2008 24

Average Income by RM, 2005

Average incomes are noticeably higher around Lloydminster and uniformly lower in the eastern side of the region.

Average income per tax filer was, in 2005:

• $29,550 in North Battleford,

• $35,010 in Lloydminster, and

• $29,440 in Meadow Lake.

Average annual increases from 2001 to 2005 were:

• 2.5% in North Battleford,

• 4.2% in Lloydminster, and

• 2.7% in Meadow Lake.Saskatoon

Princ

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

Average Income per Taxfiler, 2005(provincial average = $31,700)

$31,000 or more$26,000 to $30,999$21,000 to $25,999Less than$21,000Suppressed - insufficient data

Jan 30, 2008 25

LFS Economic Region and North Central Region

The region used by the Labour Force Survey, the only source of employment information after 2001 is much larger and includes employment throughout the north including Prince Albert, Melfort, and Humboldt.

Saskatoon

Melfort

Humboldt

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

La Ronge

Jan 30, 2008 26

Employment in the LFS Northern Economic Region

According to the LFS (which excludes the population living on Reserve), employment in the North has fluctuated near 90,000 persons over the last 20 years.

The growth from 1996 to 1999 was reversed during the subsequent three years. Since then employment has been on an upward trend.

Employment in the North (LFS)

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

thousands

comparison period

Questions?

The remaining 2006 census data will be released this Spring.March 4 – Employment March 4 – Completed EducationApril 2 – Ethnic Origin and Visible MinoritiesMay 1 – Income