Recent Housing Trends in Rural Ireland · Recent Housing Trends in Rural Ireland ... ¾holiday...
Transcript of Recent Housing Trends in Rural Ireland · Recent Housing Trends in Rural Ireland ... ¾holiday...
Recent Housing Trends in Rural Ireland
Karen Keaveney and Jim WalshDepartment of Geography, NUI Maynooth
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction• Recent Rural Population Trends• One Off Dwelling Data• Mapping the Data
density of one off dwellingscomparison of one off dwellings built over timeratio of one off dwellings to farms
• Vacant Rural Dwellingsvacancy levels in each Countyholiday homes in each County
• Conclusions
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IntroductionThe debate on rural housing has highlighted the
need for baseline information
The incidence of the issue has changed over time due to changing policy and the
accumulation of pressure in some areas
The 1990s have seen considerable expansion in the Greater Dublin Area, not just into towns
but also into the countryside
Relatively low dwelling density at 5/km2
90% of all rural dwellings are ‘one off’
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Recent Rural Population Trends
Increase in national population 11% 1991 to 2002 (+320,000)
Rural population 39% of total4.5% increase since 1991
Ongoing decrease in rural household size3.72 in 1981 to 3.09 in 2002 (-16%)
Accounts for 80% of Housing Demand
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Decline in West
Population Change 1991 to 2002
Greatest increases in Greater Dublin Area and adjacent to urban areas
Growth in coastal areas
Continuous pattern of growth from Dundalk to Wexford and westwards
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Rural Population by Area Type
High Amenity
Marginal
Weak
Strong Adjusting
Strong
Peri-Urban
% share of change
% change 91 - 02
% of total area
% of total population
Rural Types
11.6
5.4
6.3
2.8
2.5
10.4
8.4
8.9
22.8
19.9
19.3
14.5
13.6
14.9
1.1
- 0.03
10.3
13.0
3.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
9.6
13.3
Maps
The Rural Typology, illustrating Population Change 1991 to 2002
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73% of Population
86.6% of total population increase in
these areas
Rural Typology
Urban and Peri-Urban Areas
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Rapid growth due to urban expansion
10% of the national population increase
Rural Typology
Strong Rural Areas
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12% of the total population
Rural Typology
43% of land area
Weak Areas and Strong Rural Areas in Transition
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5% of total population
Rural Typology
Similar in area and population BUT
Marginal and Diversified Rural Areas
Diversified Areas highest growth rate of all rural
types
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Recent Rural Population Trends
Changing rural socio-economic profile39% decline in farming employmentrising numbers employed in the professional and administration sectors
Demand for rural housing remains highover 80,000 dwellings built in the open countryside since 1991more than built in the Dublin City and County and all other cities over the same perioddemand for dwellings in particular areas due to limited rural population growth
Mapping the Data
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Source: DoELG (2001) 'Rural and Urban Roles' Irish Spatial Perspectives - Paper 13.
Rates of Change of Houses built in Rural
Areas, 1999
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Data – sources & definitions
Detached Dwelling + Individual
Septic TankOne Off Dwelling =
One Off Dwellings in the Countryside
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Housing by Period of Construction
Housing Density
Urban Vs Rural
One Off Vs all Other Dwellings
Farm Vs Non-farm households
One Off Dwellings Data
Geographical Change in Rural House Building over time
Baseline Data on One Off Rural Housing
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29 Counties
5 Cities
County Boundaries
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3,440 Electoral Divisions (E.D.s)
Electoral Division Boundaries
Urban E.D.s excluded from following maps
Maps
Density of One Off Dwellings per km2 in each County
Density of One Off Dwellings per km2 in each Electoral Division with the National
Road Network
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Density of One Off Dwellings per km2
Only two Counties exceed 8 One Off
Dwellings per km2 :
Louth and Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown
Average of 5 One Off Dwellings per km2 in
each County
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Density of One Off Dwellings with National
Road Network
Highlights the impact of the road network and
urban areas on settlement
Highest densities in rural areas in urban hinterlands and at the road network
Highlights coastal areas under pressure
Maps
Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the 1970s with those built in the 1990s
in each County
Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the 1970s with those built in the 1990s
in each Electoral Division
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Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the
1970s and 1990s
Northeast shows less one off house building
in the 90s
Northwest, Midlands and areas of the
Southeast increases in excess of 40%
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Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the 1970s
and 1990s
Countywide, less one off dwellings built in the 1990s
in Meath
Extensive areas of the West and Southwest had moreone off dwellings built in
the 1970s
Wexford had significantly more one off dwellings built
in the 1990s
Maps
Ratio of One Off Dwellings to Farms in each Electoral Division
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Ratio of One Off Dwellings to Farms
West and Northwest generally below average
Greater Dublin Area and other Urban overspill areas –
more non-farm dwellings
National average = 2.7
Vacant Dwellings
Vacancy Levels in each County 2002
Holiday Homes in each County 2002
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Vacant Rural Dwellings
% of Total
Dwellings
Actual Number 187,03218,84616,73925,97838,94685,523
15.74%1.59%1.41%2.18%3.28%7.19%
Total Vacant
Dwellings
Temp Vacant
Uninhab-itable
Under Construc
-tion
Holiday Homes
Habitable but Vacant
38,946
15.74%3.28%
187,032
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Vacant Dwellings in each County, 2002
Over 20% vacant dwellings in some Western counties
Counties with highest rural population –highest number of vacant dwellings
24%20%
20%
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Holiday Homes in each County, 2002
Holiday homes up to 12% of all dwellings in some Western Counties
Wexford also high number of holiday
homes
12%
7%
7%
9%
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Conclusions
• Potential to move away from anecdotal evidence
• Accumulation of pressures over time resulting in contemporary problems
• Build up of density in accessible rural areas
• Increased densities also near coastal and other scenic areas
• Additional impacts of holiday homes and other vacant dwellings
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Conclusions
What is the problem…?The number of houses under constructionAesthetics and design – increasing dwelling sizeEnvironmental impacts – carrying capacityPlanning practice and policy
• Highlights the need for spatially differentiated rural settlement policies, as in Rural Housing Guidelines
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Acknowledgement
• Central Statistics Office, Rathmines