Recent Economic Developments- Monthly Economic Report, February 20 2020 -

March 4, 2020

Cabinet OfficeGovernment of Japan

Contact for inquiries:Directorate General for Economic Research

+81-3-6257-1567

(Unchanged)

(Changed)

February

<Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy>

January The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace,while weakness mainly among manufacturers is increasingfurther, as exports are continuing in a weak tone.

The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace,while increased weakness mainly among manufacturers iscontinuing, as exports remain in a weak tone.

December The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace,while weakness mainly among manufacturers is increasingfurther, as exports are continuing in a weak tone.

February

January

1

<Short-term prospects>

January

February

Weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continuerecovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and incomesituation is improving. However, attention should be given to situations in overseaseconomies including the situations over trade issues,the prospect of the Chineseeconomy, the UK leaving the EU, and the state of affairs over the Middle East region,the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets, and the situations of theconsumer sentiment after the consumption tax increase.

Weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continuerecovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and incomesituation is improving. However, full attention should be given to effects of the NovelCoronavirus on the Japanese and overseas economies. Also, attention should be givento situations in overseas economies including the situations over trade issues and theeffects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.

December

Weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continuerecovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and incomesituation is improving. However, attention should be given to situations in overseaseconomies including the situations over trade issues, the prospect of the Chineseeconomy and the UK leaving the EU, the effects of fluctuations in the financial andcapital markets, and the situations of the consumer sentiment after the consumption taxincrease.

2

　The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscalconsolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquakeand the restoration and reconstruction from the 2016　Kumamoto Earthquake.

　To this end, the Government will strengthen economic growth by boosting potential growth rate and expand virtuous cycle of growthand distribution based on the "Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2019", the "Action Plan of the GrowthStrategy" and so on.　Moreover, in order to create a society in which everyone plays an active role and feels secure, the Government will establish the socialsecurity system for all generations.Furthermore, the Government will continue to pay careful attention to the economic trend after the consumption tax rate hike andimplement the FY2019 budget including the temporal and special measures steadily.

The Government will swiftly implement "Emergency Measures Regarding the Novel Coronavirus" (February 13th, the NovelCoronavirus Response Headquarters decision), and continue to pay careful attention to its effect on the economy and take all possiblemeasures. The Government will implement "Comprehensive Economic Measures to Create a Future with Security and Growth" and theFY2019 supplementary budget swiftly and steadily to accelerate the restoration and reconstruction of the areas affected by the successivenatural disasters, to overcome the downside risks originated from the overseas economies such as the Novel Coronavirus certainly, and toachieve sustainable economic growth led by private sector demand. The Government will work for early passage of the FY2020 budget andthe related bills.

The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity, prices andfinancial conditions.

<Policy stance>(Monthly Economic Report, February 20, 2020)

3

The real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the Oct.-Dec. 2019 period (First preliminary) decreased by1.6%(or at an annualized -6.3%) from the previous quarter.

While public demand increased steadily, domestic demand contributed negatively due to the weakness inprivate demand. Net exports contributed positively due to the weak imports.

－ GDP: Oct. – Dec. 2019 (First Preliminary) －

Contribution of real GDP growth rateChanges and contributions to changes in real GDP(seasonally adjusted)

Note: Quarterly data is quarter-to-quarter change.Source: Cabinet Office.

%2018Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Mar. Apr. - Jun. Jul. - Sep. Oct. - Dec.0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -1.6

[2.1] [2.6] [1.9] [0.5] [-6.3]

(1.5) (0.4) (1.0) (0.2) (0.8) (0.4) (-2.1)

(1.4) (0.2) (0.9) (0.2) (0.4) (0.2) (-2.2)

Private Consumption 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 -2.9Private Non-ResidentialInvestment 4.3 1.7 4.3 -0.5 0.8 0.5 -3.7

Private ResidentialInvestment -1.4 -4.9 1.7 1.5 -0.2 1.2 -2.7

Changes in PrivateInventories(Contributions)

(0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (-0.1) (-0.2) (0.1)

(0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.4) (0.2) (0.1)

Public Investment 0.5 0.6 -1.3 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.1

(0.5) (-0.1) (-0.4) (0.5) (-0.3) (-0.3) (0.5)

6.4 1.6 1.6 -1.9 0.4 -0.7 -0.13.9 2.2 4.3 -4.3 2.0 0.7 -2.6

0.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 -1.2

[0.6] [4.8] [2.1] [1.9] [-4.9]

2019

Private Demand(Contributions)

Public Demand(Contributions)

Net Exports(Contributions)

Nominal GDPgrowth rate

Real GDP growth rate1.9 0.3

[at annual rate]Domestic Demand

(Contributions)

FY2017 FY2018

2.0 0.1[at annual rate]

ExportsImports

-0.8

0.5 0.6 0.5

0.1

-1.6

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ2018 19

Exports

Public demand

Private consumption

Business investment

Imports

The others

Real GDP growth rate

s.a.,Q on Q, contribution, %

QuarterYear

4

Private consumption decreased by 2.9% with the reactionary downturn due to the consumption taxrate hike. However, the rush demand and its reactionary downturn are likely to be smaller than the case in 2014.

According to the Household Survey, there are one-off factors which reduced spending. (1) Implementation of planned suspensions of trains and decrease in number of business days due to Typhoon Hagibis, (2) Poor sales of seasonal products due to warm temperatures, and (3) Lower number of holidays (especially on December 23) have caused downward push.

－ Private Consumption (1) －

Source: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

Private consumption (GDP)

0.4

-0.1

2.0

-4.8

0.0

0.6 0.5

-2.9

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ

2013 14

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2019

2013-2014

2019

QuarterYearQuarterYear

Tax rate hike

q/q, %

0.8 1.0

9.5

-5.1

-2.0

-4.8

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

7 8 9 10 11 12

2019

MonthYear

Tax rate hike

y/y, %Real household consumption (Household survey)

①

②

③

Factors of decrease in consumption other than the

reactionary downturn.(1)Typhoon Hagibis(2)Warm temperature(3)Lower number of holidays

In September 2018, negative growth was caused by earthquake in Hokkaido and typhoon in Kinki(-1.5％(y/y)).

5

Sales at supermarkets show steady performance partly due to the effects of the reduced consumption tax rate.

Sales of home appliances have been picking up since October, and have been positive since January.

－ Private Consumption (2) －

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Sales at supermarkets (weekly data) Sales of 5 home appliances (weekly data)

13.3

-0.5

1.8

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

123412345123412341234512341234512341234123451234

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2

(2019～2020)

Tax rate hike

y/y, same day of the week, %

WeekMonth

119.7

-2.6

0.9 -16.3 -5.6

-5.2

12.2

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4

7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2

Tax rate hike

(2/17～2/23)

WeekMonth

(2019～2020)

Monthly average

y/y, %

6

It is important to understand the consumption of services, which accounts for more than 50% of private consumption. Sales of eating out declined in October, but after that, have been increasing for the third consecutive month.

Travel was pushed down by bad weather in summer and Typhoon Hagibis in October, however, the number of travelers during the year-end and New Year holidays increased partly due to favorable calender effect(Saturday and Sunday, January 4th and 5th).

－ Private Consumption (3) －

Source: Japan Foodservice Association; Railway Passenger Association ; Cabinet Office

Sales of eating out Travel handling volume

Year-end and New Year's transportation (2019/12/27-2020/1/5)

4.0

-2.4

1.9

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2019 20

y/y, %

MonthYear

Tax rate hike

Typhoon

y/y

Railway (Number of passengers) 2.4%

Plane (Number of passengers) 6.7%

Expressway(Number of vehicles used） 4.4%

58.9

30.830

34

38

42

46

50

50

54

58

62

66

70

8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

18 19 20

2011=100

10 consecutiveholidays

10 consecutive holidays

Long rainTyphoonTyphoon・Earthquakes

Typhoon The Novel Coronavirus

Overseas(left scale)

MonthYear

Domestic(left scale)

7

13.6

-25.1

-12.1 -9.8

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2

2019 20

y/y,%

MonthYear

Automobile sales continued to decline by double-digits year-on-year after November. However,according to the hearing, there are several one–off factors other than the reactionary downturn due tothe consumption tax rate hike. Production and sales of new automobiles that had been suspended due toparts failure, resumed and new models went on sale in February.

Sales of department stores dealing in high-value items such as jewelry, were affected by typhoons,warm temperature in addition to the reactionary downturn. However, the decline in year-on-year salesgrowth eased toward the end of the year.

－ Private Consumption (4) －

Source: Japan Automobile Dealers Association; Japan Light motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association; Japan Department Store Association

Sales in department storesNew automobile sales

Factors of decline since October(hearing from industry associations)

(1)Factors of individual companies (discontinuation of production ofsome models due to parts failure)

(2)The number of business days decreased due to typhoons in October.(3)Refraining from buying in anticipation of new models after

December.

23.1

▲ 17.5

▲ 5.0

▲ 3.1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2019 20

Tax rate hike

Typhoon effectabout -5.4%

（from IR information）

Holidays effectabout -3.8%

(from IR information）

MonthYear

y/y,%

Recovery trend with new models

in February

8

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7

2013 14 15 16 17 18 19

Ｍonth

CY

y/y, %

Employment situation is improving while labor shortage continues. The highest level of wage increases has been achieved for six consecutive years. The 2019 winter

bonus is at a high level. Both the number of employees and the salary of employees have been increasing. As a result, real

wage income of employees has been higher than a year ago.

－ Employment Situation －

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare; Japan Business Federation; Japanese Trade Union Confederation; Cabinet Office

Unemployment rate and active job opening-to-applicants ratio

Winter bonus（ 2,000 unions）

Winter bonus（ Major private companies ）

Real wage income of employees

1.49

1.07

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101

2014 15 16 17 18 19 20

Ｍonth

CY

Active job opening-to-applicants ratio

Active job opening-to-applicants ratio(Regular employees)

s.a., %s.a., ratio

Unemployment rate(right scale)

66.1

70.0 71.4

60

63

66

69

72

75

2017 18 19 year

ten thousand yen

88.1

93.5 95.1

83

86

89

92

95

98

2017 18 19 year

ten thousand yen

9

Private consumption is picking up while employment and income situation is improving. However, fullattention should be given to effects of the Novel Coronavirus on private consumption.

The analysis of medium- to long-term factors below is also required.

－ Private Consumption and Employment Situation－

＜ Medium- to long-term challenges＞

• Increase in elderly households• Expansion of online sales• Spread of the Sharing economy

１．Structural changes in consumption

• Decrease in young people's car purchases• Spread of the Car sharing

２．Turning point in the automotive market aonce-in-a-thousand-year

＜ Short-term challenges＞

Effects of the Novel Coronavirus

10

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12017 18 19 20

EU

AsiaU.S.

World

s.a., CY2015=100, 3MA

Month

CY

Exports volumne index by region

January World Asia U.S. EU

Month to month -1.5％ -1.7% -0.6% -0.9%(Export-share) (53.3%) (20.1%) (10.6%)

Due to the slowdown of overseas economies, exports remain in a weak tone. Although exports to Asia, mainly China, showed a sign of bottoming out due to the global restoration

of IT related demand until last December, there are new concerns related to the Novel Coronavirusemerged in addition to a fall caused by the Lunar New Year effect.

Industrial production remains in a weak tone due to weak exports and Typhoon Hagibis, whileproduction of electronic parts and devices are picking up.

As for short-term prospects, production has been expected to pick up with the restoration of thesupply-chain, and growth of semiconductor demand. However, attention should be given to effects ofthe Novel Coronavirus.

－ Export & Industrial Production －

Production by Industry

Sources: Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 4 7 10 1 317 18 19 20

Forecasts.a., CY2015 = 100, 3MA

IIP(total)

Production machinery(Right scale)

Transport equipment(Right scale)

Electronic parts and devices(Right scale)

Month

CY

IIP(total, single month)

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

128

132

136

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12

2018 19

s.a,CY2015＝100 s.a,billion yen

MonthCY

Construction（right scale）

Machinery

Machinery and Construction(non-residential)

Business investment decreased by 3.7% in the October-December quarter. There is a possibility thatinvestment in machinery and construction to enhance production capacity was held back due to theweakness in exports and production. Also, there was an impact of Typhoon Hagibis that delayed theproduction and shipment of some capital goods.

Both construction investments and machinery investments are increasing in December. Due to the labor shortage, software investment contributing to labor savings has been increasing year-

on-year basis, suggesting a response to the Society 5.0.

－ Business investment & Corporate Profits (1) －

5.75.3

3.6

▲ 3

▲ 2

▲ 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12

2018 19

MonthCY

y/y,％

Software investment

Sources: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

12

Investment in the business investment plan based on the Tankan (December survey) increased 5% year-on-year.

High level of corporate profits support investments. However, careful attention should be given to theweakness mainly among manufacturers and the effects of the Novel Coronavirus on business activities.

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2017 18 19

QuarterCY

tril. yen

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2017 18 19

QuarterCY

tril. yen

－ Business investment & Corporate Profits (2) －

Planned business investment for FY2019 (“Tankan” survey)

0

2

4

6

8

All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing

y/y,％

＋5.0％＋5.4％

＋4.7％

Source: Bank of Japan, NIKKEI NEEDS

Ordinary profit of listed companies

Non-manufacturing

Manufacturing

13

Housing investment is in a weak tone recently.

Housing construction starts

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 12

2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

s.a., tril.yen, 3MA

Month

CY

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.

Public investment shows steady performance.

Amount of public construction completed

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1

2013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Owner-occupied housing(right scale)

Housing for rent(right scale)

Housing for sale(right scale)

Total

s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA

Month

CY

14

CPI(Consumer Price Index)

Consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently.

98.5

99.0

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

102.0

4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12014 15 16 17 18 19 20

s.a.,CY2015=100

Core CPI (less fresh food)

Core-core CPI(less fresh food and energy)

CPI

MonthCY

sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

43.4

41.9

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12019 20

(DI)

Tax rate hike-related

Total

MonthCY

Tax rate hike

Economy Watchers Survey

DI of those who comment on the tax rate hike,is above the total DI in January.

sources: Cabinet Office

15

Economic Impacts of the Novel Coronavirus

March 4, 2020

Cabinet OfficeGovernment of Japan

The effects of the Novel Coronavirus could depress the Japanese economy through the followingchannels. (1)Decrease in inbound tourism, (2)Decrease in exports especially to China, (3) effectsthrough supply chain, (4)Slowdown in global economy due to slowdown in China, and(5)Precautionary(restrained) response of household consumption.

－ Effects of the Novel Coronavirus (1) －

Sources: Ministry of Finance; Japan National Tourism Organization; IMF; National Bureau of statistics of China.Notes: SARS is an abbreviation for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

Machinery3.4 tril. yen

(23.1%)

Electrical machinery3.0 tril. yen

(20.7%)Chemicals2.5 tril. yen

(17.3%)

Manufactured goods1.7 tril. yen

(11.4%)

Transport equipment1.5 tril. yen

(10.3%)

Others2.5 tril. yen

(17.2%)

Total14.7 tril. yen

Japan’s imports from China by products (2019)

Japan’s exports to China by products(2019)

2003 2019

Exports to China(tril. yen) 6.6 14.7

Share in total exports 12.2% 19.1%

As a percent of GDP 1.3% 2.7%

Electrical machinery5.3 tril. yen

(28.7%)

Machinery3.4 tril. yen

(18.3%)Manufactured

goods2.2 tril. yen

(12.0%)

Chemicals1.2 tril. yen

(6.5%)

Transport equipment0.5 tril. yen

(2.6%)

Others5.9 tril. yen

(31.9%)

Total18.4 tril. yen

Of which,parts of

motor vehicle329 bil. yen

(1.8%)2019

China 36.9％

Other Asian countries 36.2％

Western Europe 14.2％

North America 5.9％

Others 6.8％

Share in imports ofparts of motor vehicles

(Total: 890 bil. yen)

The number of foreign tourists (2019)

China9.6 mil.(30.1%)

Korea5.6 mil.(17.5%)

Taiwan4.9 mil.(15.3%)

Hong Kong2.3 mil.(7.2%)

U.S.1.7mil.(5.4%)

Thailand1.3 mil.(4.1%)

Others6.5mil.(20.3%)

Total 31.9 mil.

2003 2019

The number of foreign tourists 5.2 31.9

Of which, from China 0.5 9.6

※Share in total imports: 23.5%

2018 2003（spread of SARS)

GDP 15.7% 4.3%

Goods exports 12.8% 5.8%

Goods imports 10.8% 5.2%

Number of Chinese outbound visitors

(person-times)160 mil. 20 mil.

Share of the Chinese economy in the world economy

(mil. people)

Inbound tourism consumption (2019) 4.8 tril. yen

Of which, by Chinese people

1.8 tril. Yen(36.8%)

1

Examples of corporate activities

According to IR information by large department store groups, a fall in year-on-year sales in January wasshrunk. However, February sales dropped due to a decrease in the number of customers (includinginbound tourists) that may be due to the Novel Coronavirus.

Many domestic companies have not yet been able to forecast the effects of the Novel Coronavirus. Onthe other hand, corporate information shows that production in China has not yet reached full-scale, andtransportation and shipping services are not recovered yet.

－ Effects of the Novel Coronavirus (2) －

Sales of major department stores since January (y/y)

Note: In the figure on the left, the effect of the shift during the Lunar New Year period (February 4 to 10 in 2019 and January 24 to 30 in 2020) occurred in January and February. In 2020, the Chinese government extended the Lunar New Year period to February 2 to prevent the spread of the Novel Coronavirus.

Source: IR of individual companies.

CompanyＡ

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

Dec. -5.2% -4.7% -4.6% -1.3% -4.6%

Jan. -3.6% -3.6% -1.8% ＋1.8% -5.4%

Feb. -11.7% -15.3% -14.3% -31.6% -17.9%

（Car manufacturer A）

・Production will resume at three of the four Chinesefactories by February 18. The remaining one factorywill be reopened after the 24th. For the time being,all three factories will be operating at about 50% ofcapacity for the time being.

（Postal service B）・Since February 10 the aircraft between Japan and

China has been significantly suspended, it isexpected that it will take more than two weeks toload the cargo destined for China on the aircraft.

（Toy manufacturer C）・The production and shipment of electronic toys

produced in China has been delayed, and the toysare short in Japan.

2

Due to the impacts of SARS, China‘s nominal growth rate in 2003 declined by 0.5%, and East Asia and Southeast Asia declined by 0.6% (estimates of Asia Development Bank).

Due to the spread of SARS, the number of foreign visitors to Japan, the number of Japanese departing from Japan, and the sales of domestic travel in Japan decreased sharply from April to June 2003. As a result, private consumption and exports in the Apr.-Jun.2003 showed weaknesses.

－ Economic Impacts of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)－

Background of the spread of SARS infection

Source: Cabinet Office; Japan Tourism Agency; ADB;WHO.

SARS impact on nominal GDP in 2003

The number of SARS patients(November 1, 2002-July 31, 2003)

The number of foreign visitors to Japanand the number of Japanese departing

the amount of domestictravel in Japan

Japan’s real GDP growth rate

region billion, USD GDP ratioChina -6.1 -0.5%

Hong Kong -4.6 -2.9%South Korea -0.3 -0.1%

Taiwan -1.3 -0.5%East Asia and Southeast

Asia -18.0 -0.6%

region infected people deathsChina 5,327 349

Hong Kong 1,755 299Taiwan 346 37

Singapore 238 33Canada 251 43

The others 181 13Total 8,098 774

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

2003

y/y,%

MonthYear

・On November 16, 2002, the first case was identified in Guangdong, China.・

・

Infections have spread since mid-February 2003, and WHO advised in April to refrain from traveling to Guangdong, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanxi and Toronto.WHO declared end on July 5 (approximately 8 months after initial case

confirmation).

-60-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

2003

y/y,%

Foreign visitors

Japanese departing

MonthYear

1.10.3 2.6

1.5

4.52.8

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ

2002 03 04

s.a.,ann.,%

QuarterYear

Real growth rate

Private consumptionBusiness investment

Public demand

Exports

Imports

3