IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

Peter WaggittConsultant

International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

Recent Developmentsin the

Uranium Mining Industry and

Future Implications

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Uranium mining industry since 1945

• Modern U mining began in the 1940s - the main interest being to supply material for use in nuclear weapons

• Most mining was carried on with little concern for safety – people and environment being largely ignored

• Mining slowed sharply in mid 1960s as quotas were filled

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Recent developments• 1970s Environmental legislation the first appeared • Surge of activity late 1970s for nuclear power development• 1990s –

• a slump after accidents; questions raised as confidence in nuclear power decreases

• Reduction of production in former USSR and satellites• 2003 - a surge of activity begins that continues today• Nuclear fuel supply issues, energy issues, greenhouse,

climate change etc. all push nuclear power to the front page of the agenda again

………….. and impact on uranium mining

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Current operations and issues

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Modern uranium mining• 20 countries report U production to “Red Book”• World production 2008 was 43853 t U (51716 t U3O8)• 62% from open pit and underground mines • 29% from ISL (and increasing)• ~10% as a by-product e.g. Olympic Dam

• Top producers • Rio Tinto Nam/Aus 7975 t U 18%• Cameco Canada 6659 t U 15%• Areva Niger/Kaz 6318 t U 14%• Kazatomprom Kaz 5328 t U 12%• ARMZ Rus 3688 t U 8%

• 5 companies produce about 75%

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Top 5 uranium mines (48%)

McArthur River Canada Cameco u/g 6383 15Ranger Australia Rio

Tintoo/c 4527 10

Rossing Namibia Rio Tinto

o/c 3449 8

Olympic Dam Australia BHP Billiton

u/gBy-p

3344 8

Kraznokamensk Russia ARMZ u/g 3050 7

Mine Location Owner Type ‘08 t U World %

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Uranium consumption

• 2007 demand was about 62,000 t U• 2008 demand was about 65,452 t U• Up to 8 new mines forecast in 2009• Forecast production 2009 49375 t U• Demand projection for 2015 is 74,000 t U• Future projections may go even higher as

new NPP are discussed and planned

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Uranium mining human resources

• Today’s uranium mining workforce was becoming a shrinking, aging, and retiring population

• Since the quiet times of the mid-late 1980s fewer recruits have come into the U mining industry

Why is it happening……..?• Young professionals saw little future in what many regarded as a moribund/dying industry with little public acceptance

• Also there are impacts arising from changes in education patterns……….

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The U mining workforce

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Science skills pool

• Fewer ‘hard’ science students, especially physics• Reduction in science teaching staff and department numbers, especially physics and maths

• Result:• Fewer suitable students• Fewer appropriate graduates• Fewer new radiation safety workers• Everyone doing “more with less”

• The problem today…………

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People and events• Insufficient numbers of new staff coming

into U mining• New demands in spheres other than U

mining• Major staff shortages and insufficient

replacements• Too few experienced mentors and trainers• Upsurge in uranium mining activity……..• Why is it happening?

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Uranium price changes• The present big push in mining activity is due in part to the spot price increase from 2003 onwards

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Recent price movement for U3O8

Spot price at 1 August 2009 =US$47 per lb U3O8 Current term sales about $65 per lb U3O8

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Uranium exploration expenditure

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Uranium Exploration Expenditure vs Spot Price

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Future stressors for the U mining industry

Uranium production cycle activity is increasing• New mines:

• 3 so far in 2009 (Malawi (1) and Kazakhstan (2)• maybe 3 or 4 more over the next 5 years• maybe 10-15 more over the next 10-12 years• ISL mines expanding fastest - but many skills still needed

• Expansion of existing mines, re-opening old mines & re-working of old tailings

• Possible expansion in use of unconventional resources and/or by-product mining

• Some production estimates are for up to 74K t U by 2015

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One current challenge……….

• Legacy issues:avoidingpast mistakes

• Need to be managed and remediated

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Legacy issues

Many legacy sites• On every continent• Funding is hard to

get• Remediation

planning essential• Brownfield sites

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Mine expansion plans

• Kazatomprom target is 15,000 tpa by 2012

• Olympic Dam aim to produce 12,700 t U pa after expansion over the next few years

• Paladin (Australia) opening new mines• Langer-Heinrich, Namibia (2006): 1500 tpa U3O8• Kaylekerra, Malawi (2009): 1100 tpa U3O8

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Other new mines under consideration….

• Namibia (2), Niger (2), • Also Russia , Iran, Canada, India, Ukraine• Maybe USA• …...and South America……….• Maybe Africa - Zambia, North Africa, South

Africa, Tanzania, • Maybe new unconventional resources & by-

products• Morocco, Jordan, USA, South America

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Human resources

• Shortage of skills in all areas• Competition in staffing demands:• Mining generally• Mineral sands & NORM industries• Metal mines & Oil and Gas

• For some specialist skills other competition• Medicine• Other industries, e.g. Materials testing

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Solution Options [Radiation Safety]• Training• Scheme in USA aims to provide ~200 RS techs in 2-3 years• Suggestion that IAEA try to do something similar e.g. through regional TC projects• RSO training in conjunction with universities – getting more students to do science, including physics, in schools

• Develop universal training courses• Appropriate levels for both RSO and Technician• Validation and accreditation of academic awards through educational authorities and industry linkages• Seek to improve global transferability of skills

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Solution Options [Better outcomes]• Encourage interchange of staff between

industry operators and regulatory authorities to improve training effectiveness - and the understanding of each side for the other’s situation

• Increase public education and outreach schemes in schools to raise awareness of the need for personnel, especially in U mining

• Improve application of standards and encourage study and use of documentation

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Documentation

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Summary [1]• Uranium mining activity is growing globally• Qualified staff are in short supply and the demand is growing, especially in U mining

• Some staff shortages are apparent periodically• An ageing population means the situation will deteriorate as the present workforce retires

• New staff have to be attracted into uranium mining

• Need to encourage more young people into ‘hard’ science at school and then move them on to mining studies at university

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Summary [2]

• Mining will always be the financially more attractive employer - but regulators need staff too!• Follow up joint regulator/operator initiatives (e.g. IAEA/WNA) to introduce and maintain “best practice”standards• IAEA regional training & networks• Society has to accept that U mining is here to stay for some time – more effort required in public education & stakeholder engagement

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Conclusions

Best Practice is essential to the safe, secure and profitable development of uranium mining – a resource industry that is now seen as having a significant part to play in the battle on climate

change

We need to provide more skilled personnel to meet the demand – the expansion has begun

and will continue for some time