Recent Developments for Carbonaceous Aerosol Inventories Of

8/14/2019 Recent Developments for Carbonaceous Aerosol Inventories Of

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Liousse C., Guillaume B., Junker C., Michel C., Grgoire J.M. and Cachier H.

Control of fossil fuel black carbon may be a cost effective way to reduceglobal warming emissions in conjonction with abatement of GHG emissi (Jacobson, 2002)


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Liousse and Cachier, 2005

Climatic impact ofcarbonaceous aerosols

is highly linked to theiremission spatial distribution

1970

1997

Estimate of emissioninventories still uncertain...


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T he market!

Carbonaceous aerosol inventories always incomplete (fossil fuel/biofuel/biomass burning, Biogenic OC, Primary OC/ T otal OC..)Confusion between PPOC and POM

T he two existing global inventory (Bond and Liousse inventories) forFossil fuel and Biofuel sources of BC and OC in disagreement

Regional inventories also in disagreement (Shaap/Liousse

for Europe, Carmichael/Liousse/Shekkar Reddy for Asia)

June 2002: Workshop in T oulouse to better understand the gaps=> main causes :fuel distribution by activities and emission factor choice.


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Bond

Liousse

Example for global fossilfuel source BC inventories

in 1996


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Liousse, 2005, IAPSAG book


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F urther in details comparing Bond and Liousse global inventories

Due to the incomplete picture of fuel data and use(including all activities, technology and norms)Due to the lack of experimental EF measurements

=> REDUCTIONS are needed

I n Liousse, 3 sectors = trafic/combined, domestic and industrial;3 groups of countries developed/semi-developed/developing.

EF for semi-developed and under-developed => mostly based on projectionsfrom developed EF

I n Bond, I EA fuel use takes into account combustion technologycountry/country but assumptions performed where no data


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EF (g C/kgdm) Liousse BondDomestic I ndustrial Domestic I ndustrialHard Coal Dev 1.39 0.149 3. 0.001-0.006Hard Coal Underdev. 2.28 1.10 3.21 0.28-4.5Lignite Dev 2.5 0.30 0.2 0.015-0.03Lignite Underdev. 4.10 1.98 0.22 0.01

Ind ustrial Har d coal :B C/ TP M (Liousse) =25%; B C/ TP M (Bond) =1% for pulverized coal =>Recent experiments in T oulouseB C/ TP M=1.5% and EF(B C)= 0.1 (with filters= Dev.?) to 1.14 (no filter= Underdev.?)

Ind ustrial Lig n ite :More incomplete combustion than hard coal but no experiment


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EF (g C/kgdm) Liousse BondT raffic Dom. I ndus. T raffic Dom. I ndus.

Diesel Dev. 2 2 0.07 0.8 0.25 0.25Diesel Underdev . 10 2 0.35 1.31 0.25 0.24Motor Gasoline Dev 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.13Motor Gasoline Underdev . 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.26 0.08 0.09

Diesel : (x5) ( Liousse) between Dev. and UnderdevExperimental (Liousse EF Dev.) : 2g C/kgdm? need to be validated..

Motor gasoline :Bond : separation low duty/heavy duty, 2 strokes/4strokesLiousse : a mean value; 1st experimental values: EF(B C)=0.007-0.2


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A question of fuel reduction?Exercise at the european scale (25kmx25km) including more details on fuels, activities (technology details) and norms

II ASA fuels : Example of details :I ndustrial : grate firing/fluidized bed/pulverized coalGasoline : 2/4 strokes Light/Heavy duty

I mpossible to rely EF for each technologies and norms ...

Our assumptions based on experimental results*Ref EF(B C) => Liousse global then fuel by fuel,EF(B C) fixed by ( CO/ CO2) => moreCO, more particlesB C/O C fixed by ( CO/ CO2) => moreCO/ CO2, more incompletecombustion, less B C/O C, more EF(OC)

*Need to be validated for solid fuels Liousse and Guillaume, 2005


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LA-global 1x1 LA-Europe-25km x 25km

Annual B C : 1.5 TgCAnnual OCp : 2.21 TgC

Annual B C : 1.21(1.48) TgCAnnual OCp : 1.51(1.93) TgC(With and Without norms)

Shaap et al. : 0 .48 TgC


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Guillaume/Liousse: 199 5 controlled

Guillaume/Liousse:2 010

tons/year

tons/year

Liousse: 199 5 not controlled BC;OC 199 5 Liousse,2 00 4:25 countries EU : 8 16 ;1117 kt/yr

10 other countries: 1 58;3 1 8 kt/yr

BC,OC 199 5 Guillaume and Liousse, 2 00 4: Not controlled scenario

25 countries EU: 1111 ; 22 17 kt/yr 10 other countries: 17 8; 3 60 kt/yr

Controlled scenario25 countries EU: 6 25; 9 46 kt/yr 10 other countries: 6 4; 119 kt/yr

2010 Controlled scenario

25 countries EU: 345; 5 1 2 kt/yr 10 countries EU: 6 8; 109 kt/yr


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European B C (Shaap et al. 2004) =0.45 Tg => a constant underestimateof B C concentrations over rural areas (due to the sources? , the modelin g?

European B C (with the assumptions done here) = 1.5 Tg => better comparisons

A way to test the emission inventories isto model BC and OC particles

Trying to validate with experimental measurements?

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

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0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

4 7 1 0 1 3 1 6 1 9 2 2 2 5 2 8 3 1 3 4 3 7 4 0 4 3 4 6 4 9 5 2 5 5 5 8 6 1 6 4 6 7 7 0

Week

B C c o n c e n

t r a

t i o n s g

/ m 3

BC Measurements

TM4 modelized BC

Pic du Midi, 3 000 m high

200 2 200 3


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BF/FF =30% mean26%=mean inChina60 to 45% in I ndia

T he global trend of BC emissions (with low injection hei ght).

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BC/prim.OC

1970=>1997USA/France

Liousse and Cachier, 2005


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Trends of fossil fuel BC in A frica Liousse et al., 2004 (50-97)



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SRES-B1/A2

Liousse and C achier , 2005


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BC/OC Projections

SRES-B1/A2



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BC/OC Projections

SRES-B1/A2



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Global BC emissions

1997

2100 A2

BC/OC Projections

SRES-B1/A2



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H uge differencesBetween IP CC scenarii.China : 20% of globalemissions in 1995and 2020 whereas30% in 2100;I ndia : 10% (constant)

BC/OC ProjectionsSRES-B1/A2



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BC/OC Projections

SRES-B1/A2

TM3 model / comparison withMeasurements during I NDOEX



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N EW projections with scenarios given by POLES model

I ncluding both fossil fuel and biofuel emissions with indications ofA ctivity partition = Traffic, Domestic, I ndustrialReference scenario : Reflect the state of the world with what is actually(2000) embodied as environmental policy objectives ( BAU)CCC scenario : I ntroduction of carbon penalties as defined by Kyoto for2010 and a reduction of 37 Gt of CO2 in 2030.

EFs for the Reference scenario : equal to today sReduction of EF for the CCCscenario :Developed countries : based on removal efficiency forecast by the II ASA Rains modelSemi-Developed countries : EFs of developed countries of 1997Under- Developed countries : EFs of semi-developed countries of 1997

Th anks to P. Criqui, Grenoble

Junker and Liousse 2005


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-180 -90 0 90 180

90

45

0

-45

-90

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Mt / 1x1

BC2030rf

-180 -90 0 90 180

90

45

0

-45

-90

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Mt / 1x1

BC2030 cc

BC(TgC) POLES,UN I PCC

2000 12.42030ref 13.7 2020A2 252030ccc 5.8 2100 A2 1002100 : n ext 2100 B1 0.6

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20 30 ref

20 30 ccc

I PCC-2100A2Liousse and Cachier , 2005

F uture BC projections at the global scale

Junker and Liousse 2005


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Biomass burning emissions

Burnt biomass: determined from statistical data (Hao et al., 1991) = a factor of 2 to 3 ofuncertainty.I mprovement has been found by coupling both satellite tools (fire pixe counts and burnt areas)(Liousse et al. 2004, IGA C book on emissions,Michel et al., 2005, J GR).Emission factors = revision has been done for consistency (see Liousse et al., 2004)

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0.0E+00

1.0E+04

2.0E+04

3.0E+04

4.0E+04

5.0E+04

6.0E+04

7.0E+04

8.0E+04

B C e m

i s s

i o n s

( t o n n e s

)

M ar ch 1 -1 0 M ar ch 1 1- 20 M ar ch 2 1- 31 A pr il 1-10 Apr il 11-20 Apr il 21-30 May 1-10

period

ACESS ABBI

ACCESS/ABBI (Michel et al. 05)

(TRACE P and ACE ASIA period)


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Determination of african BC emissionsfrom 19 81 to 1991 ( Liousse et al., 2004 )


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A comparison (a way to validate) : Modeled BC / TOMS index?

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Z > 25 00

Agreement only durin g peak ofdry seasonRelationship between emissions

and ENSO not seen with T OMSsignal

West Africa

Liousse et al., fort hc oming


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Model underestimate

Model a g reement Need more data

Liousse et al., fort hc oming


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T o conclude with BC and OC trends from biomass burnin g emissions :

A review : Liousse et al. 2004 IG AC book on Emissions.

Present BB : Use of satellite data very useful ; more uncertain

parameters are now biomass density and pollutant injectionheight. ACCEN T Works h op on Biomass burning : fall 2005

A complex link between climatological factors , population

activities .. (see emission variations from 1980-1991)Derivation of BB inventories from the past to the Future :not to be scaled on population variations

Regional : next for Africa : in the frame of AMMA => 2005-2007 = aweekly regional inventory for gases and particles from SPO T satellitedata


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Caut ion = confus ion between POC and TOC

POC inventor ies : what p lenty of peop le have now..needed for mode l with an aeroso l modu le

A llow ing to create ASOA and BSOA part ic les (a lso needed

Anthropogen ic and B iogen ic VOCs)

TOC inventor ies : needed for mode l without aeroso l modu le

In Liousse et al., 1996 : TO C inventory for fossil fuel sources was obtained from BC inventory and a cons t a n t BC/TOC r a tio measured at a distance of the source area (in order to include secondary formation of or g anics) TO C inventory for biomass burnin g sources was obtained from airplane data


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Example of results with the OR I SA M 0D-Module( O r g anic and I nor g anic Spectral Aerosol Module)

BC,OCp,otherSO 42-NO 3-

HSO 4-

H +

NH 4+H 20 NH 3

H 2SO 4HNO 3PhotoX

Condensable org.VOCs SOA

SO 2NOx

A var iab le POC/TOC rat io is obta ined from s imu lat ionsus ing a OD aeroso l modu le (h igh dependancy on sources andtemperature) => g loba l d istr ibut ion map of th is rat iois in construct ion.

( Liousse et al., 2005)

Recent Developments for Carbonaceous Aerosol Inventories Of

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