Recent developments and prospects for PV in Australia · Solar Cities $75M over 5 years demonstrate...
Transcript of Recent developments and prospects for PV in Australia · Solar Cities $75M over 5 years demonstrate...
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Recent developments and
prospects for PV in Australia
Muriel Watt
Australian PV Association
Australia-Germany Seminar
13th October 2011
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Outline
Market Developments
Policy support
Future prospects
Expectations / Trends
Australian-German R&D Collaboration
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Market
Developments
Photo: Adelaide Zoo
Adelaide Solar City
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Australian PV Market
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Cu
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off-grid domestic off-grid non-domestic grid-connected distributed grid-connected power stations
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Annual installations
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Australia in the top 10 for
installations (PVPS, Photon International)
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Policy Support Adelaide showground 1MW
(First Solar modules, installed by Solar Shop)
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Australian Market Drivers
Solar Credits (X3 RECs)
State Feed-in Tariffs
Solar Schools
Solar Flagship – 150MW single axis tracking, BP Solar panels
Commercial sector interest increasing
+
10-20% annual electricity price increases
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RET Operation STC market
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LGC market
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Small RE Systems and Solar
Credits
SHW was dominant REC creator last
year (45%)
PV also surged (14%) due to SHCP &
Solar Credits:
Date
installed 2009 – 11 2011 - 12 2012 - 13
From 1 July
2013
Multiplier 5 3 2 No multiplier
(1)
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Solar Cities $75M over 5 years
demonstrate high penetration of
solar, energy efficiency, smart
metering
improve market for distributed
generation, demand side energy
Adelaide, Townsville, Blacktown,
Alice Springs, Central Victoria,
Perth, Coburg:
◦ Information
◦ PV, SHW
◦ Energy efficiency & demand
management
◦ TOU meters and displays
◦ Demonstration systems
Desert Knowledge Solar Centre
Alice Springs Solar City
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National Solar Schools Program
$489 million - all schools eligible
Grants up to $50,000 to install up to 2 kW PV and:
◦ lighting upgrades
◦ sky lights
◦ shade awnings
◦ solar hot water systems
◦ rainwater tanks
Many schools installing >2 kW Portland Primary School
Photo: Heather Archison
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150 MW Moree Solar Farm (concept)
Solar Flagships
• 1 X 150 MW PV
power stations • BP Solar modules
• Fotowatia trackers
• Pacific Hydro installation
• 1 X 250 MW
proposed 2nd round
Source: BP Solar
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State & Territory Feed in Tariffs
State Size limit Rate
A$/kWh
Duration Type
ACT 1:1 proposed
NT 1:1
Vic 5 0.25 15 Net
SA 10 per phase 0.22 20 Net
NSW
WA Diesel grid
areas
1:1
Qld 5 0.44 20 Net
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Future Prospects 305 kWp PV system on Alice Springs Crown Casino
(Photo: SunPower Corp)
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Australian PV Market now at
the Crossroads
FiTs ending
Solar Credits reducing
Solar Schools & Solar Cities winding
down
Issues of quality
Worries about fire
Restrictions from network operators
(main grid) and generators (diesel grids)
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The good news
PV prices going down
Electricity prices going up
We have begun to reach grid parity
especially if Solar Credits included
Parity:
PV LCOE = Retail electricity price
PV life is 25 yrs
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Australian PV module price trends
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$/W
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Typical module price Best price
Current A$
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Grid System Price Trend
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Residential PV systems
Awareness high but:
◦ Perception of high cost & low abatement
◦ Little understanding of parity
◦ Focus on export price
◦ Want payback in <10yrs
◦ Industry ask is 1:1 for import : export
IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series
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Residential System Price trends
and Grid Parity Projections
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Sydney NPV Grid Electricity - High NPV Grid Electricity - Low Annual Grid Electricity - High
Annual Grid Electricity - Low Brisbane Melbourne
Module price $A1.30/Wp
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Parity sensitivities - Sydney
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Cost Breakdown 1.5kW
Residential System
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End System Channel Costs
System Installation Costs
Power BOS
Structural and Support CAPEX
Distributor Channel Costs
PV Equipment Cost (Landed Price)
LCOE
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Sensitivities for residential
systems
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IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series
Shell Harbour Services Club
Uni of NSW
Commercial PV Systems
Alice Springs Crown Casino
(Photo: SunPower Corporation)
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Commercial System Price trends
and Grid Parity Projections
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Sydney Brisbane Melbourne
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Commercial system sensitivity
to module cost
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LC
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Module Cost ($/Wp)
LCOE - Individual Design
LCOE - Standardised System
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Issues now for residential and
commercial PV in Australia
One of the 1st countries to reach parity but:
inflexible coal generation base makes us least able to accommodate PV
NEM designed for central generation
Monopoly distribution businesses
No incentive to value distributed generation
Hence export offers at wholesale rate
Favours own use & smaller systems
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Utility-scale PV systems
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NPV (NEM - Reference) NPV (NEM - Core Policy) NPV (NEM - High Price)
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We can reach > 4GW by 2020!
15% annual
growth
400MW from Flagships
Over 1 GW already
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Australian Solar Institute
R&D Collaboration with Germany
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ASI – Strategic Focus Areas R&D Investment, Skills Development and
Knowledge Building
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The Australian Solar Institute
• Australian Government initiative for R&D into PV and CST
• R&D projects in research institutions and companies around Australia and internationally
• cA$200m portfolio of solar R&D projects leveraged by c$66m of Australian Government funding
• Funding leverage from industry, research institutions & State Governments at an average ratio of 2:1 – up to 5:1
• ASI-funded projects support over 100 researchers
• Australian Government’s A$1.5 billion Solar Flagships Program - disseminating economic and technical learnings
• International engagement – U.S. – Australia Solar Energy Collaboration (USASEC); Fraunhofer Institute MoU; DLR MoU; strategic engagement with Asia
• Will be consolidated within the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) from July 2012
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Collaboration with Germany
Funding collaborative R&D projects involving Australian researchers and German industry
Memoranda of Understanding to extend collaboration between Australian Solar research institutions and German counterparts
ASI and Fraunhofer Institute Solar Energy
ASI and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft - und Raumfahrt (DLR)
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Funding Programs
The ASI is seeking highly meritorious
projects to fund as Australia-Germany
Collaborative Solar R&D Projects
Applications will be reviewed by the ASI's
Research Advisory Committee (RAC) at
regular intervals
Further details
www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au
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ASI Contact
Olivia Coldrey
Investment Director
Australian Solar Institute
(61 2) 4960 6302
www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au
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The Australian Photovoltaics
Association
80 members – research, industry, government
PV industry development
Policy analysis
Collaborative R&D local – incl. Solar Access & Council PV Guidelines, FiT
analyses
International via IEA PVPS – incl. PV in Smart Grids, Developing Countries
Standards & performance
Information and advocacy Annual PV Report
PV analysis & strategy papers
www.apva.org.au
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APVA Reports:
www.apva.org.au