RECCWEXRegional Climate Change and Extremes

RECCWEX

Outline

This Status Quo Report of the Flagship will contain information regarding:

• Background & Scientific Questions

• Contribuion to the overall research agenda of the RD/PIK

• Involved Resources

• Main Results & Impacts

• Outlook

RECCWEX

Persons

Senior scientists – Postdocs:

Fritz Gerstengarbe, Fred Hattermann, Zbyszek Kundzewicz, Peter Werner, Valentina Krysanova, Jan Volkholz, Martin Kücken, Hermann Österle, Stefan Liersch, Hagen Koch, Frank Wechsung

Doktorands:

Shaochun Huang, Matthias Büchner, Julia Lutz, Sebastian Schubert, Christopher Menz, Julia Tecklenburg, Judith Stagl, Tobias Vetter, Samuel Fournet, Friedemann Lembke

Technical staff: Volker Hauffe

RECCWEX

Development of hydro-climatic extremes- Example: floods world wide -

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Number

Source: MunichRe

Comprehensive investigations of climate change impacts on hydro-climatic extremes (droughts, floods, storms …) are just starting (and very

challenging) and are surely a topic for PIK (socio-economical impact, public interest)

RECCWEX

Central questions

• How will climate change-related extreme events manifest in certain regions under global change?

• Where are regional hot spots?

• Are new and never observed extremes possible?

• What is the feedback climate/vegetation/hydrology and how can this knowledge be used to design landscapes in order to counteract regional climate impacts?

• Where are the gaps in modeling to cover the research questions above?

• What is the range of uncertainty/confidence in regional scenarios of future extreme events?

• What are possible adaptation measures?

RECCWEX

Research goals

• Quantification of possible impacts related to meteorological and hydrological extremes in different regions/ climate zones;

• Vulnerability and possible adaptation measures;

• Development of a state-of-the-art model system;

RECCWEX

Methods und Concepts

Reg

ion

alG

lob

alGCMs Global climate

L

and

scap

e

CCLM/ STAR (and other)

Regional climate model

SWIM

1) Water resources and extremes

2) Change in vegetation dynamics (crop

production)

Land use change Climate change

xx realisations

regional partners

Water resources management

Agriculture and forestry

1

2

LPJ

RECCWEX

Related projectsStatus Titel Acronym Fördersumme

Running Simulation von Extremereignissen mit dem regionalen Klimamodell CLM

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Schadensituation in der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation options in vulnerable agro-landscapes in East Africa

Support to phase II ORASECOM Basin wide integrated water resources management plan

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Verbreitung krankheitübertragender Tiere (zunächst Schildzecken)

Nachhaltige Wasser- und Landnutzung im Guanting-Einzugsgebiet unter begrenzten Wasserressourcen

CLME

GDV

ReACCT

ORASECOM

Zecken

GUANTING

917.814,-

1.191.024,-

145.440,-

120.000,-

50.000,-

180.000,-

RECCWEX

Related projects

Status Titel Acronym Fördersumme

Running Forest fires under climate, social and

economic changes in Europe, the

Mediterranean and other fire-affected

Areas of the world

Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels auf Wasser, Umwelt und Gesellschaft im Elbegebiet

Nachhaltiges Landmanagement

Modellvorhaben Raumordnung

Berlin-Brandenburg Innovationsnetz Klimaanpassung – Region

FUME

GLOWA-Elbe

NaLaMa

MORO

INKA-BB

80.400,-

200.000,-

237.000,-

20.000,-

38.600,-

RECCWEX

Related projectsStatus Titel Acronym Fördersumme

Running Potsdam Research Cluster for Georisk Analysis, Environmental Change and Sustainability

Enhancing the role of wetlands in integrated water resources management for twinned river basins in EU, Africa and South-America

Africa at meso-scale: Adaptive and integrated tools and strategies on natural resources management

Re-Thinking Water Storage for Climate Change Adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean

Nachhaltige Wasser- und Landnutzung im Guanting-Einzugsgebiet unter begrenzten Wasserressourcen

Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River

Progress

WeTwin

AFROMAISON

Re-Thinking Water Storage

WASSERMED

DEWFORA

SUMMARIO

79.000

277.205

295.595

73.750

262.801

168.618

510.069

RECCWEX

Status Titel Acronym Fördersumme

Running/ accepted

Evolving complex networks – Regionales Ressourcenmanagement unter Umwelt- und demographischem Wandel

Strategies and Technologies for Water Scarcity Mitigation in Northeast of Brazil: Conjunctive use, Water Reuse and Managed Aquifer Recharge

Climate adapted crop health expert system

Quantifying projected impacts under 2°Cwarming

ECONS

BRAMAR

CACHES

IMPACT2C

73.400,-

357.600,-

500.000,-

120.000

In preparation Adapting to climate change and variability under extreme events in Southeast Asia through climate smart land management practices

Improved food and biomass production through enhancing the resilience and adaptation of the agro-silvo-pastoral and mixed crop-livestock farming systems in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania)

Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change

ClimEXAg

CeTSAF

UCaHS

190.000,-

z.Z. nur Reisekosten da Vorbereitungstreffen

242.000,-

RECCWEX

Selected results

Floods, droughts, storms …

RECCWEX

1: Maps of flood-related damages in 2011-40 and 2041-70

Average flood damages per river reach and scenario period (considered are private houses and small enterprises). Projection of floods: hydrological model SWIM driven by regional climate models REMO and

CCLM (in total 7 climate realizations). Damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). Average flood damages 1961-2000 = 100%.

First German wide estimation of flood related losses under climate change.

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(20

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RECCWEX

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1961-2000 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100

Period

Da

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mill

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Eu

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+ ~0.5 + ~1.5 + ~3.0Temp. increase

2. Flood related damages in Germany per period

Projection of flood related damages on private houses and small enterprises: SWIM driven by the regional climate models REMO and CCLM (7 climate realizations in total). Damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). 500 Million Euro is the observed and simulated average in the reference period

1961-2000

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RECCWEX

3. Increase of storm damages in Germany

A1B - Summer2041/70 – 1984/2008

Regional increase of storm damages

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First German wide estimation of storm related losses under climate change.

RECCWEX

4. Selected Results – Drougths in Sub-Saharan Africa – Niger basin

baseline scenario

80%

55%

42%

1°

2 °

3 °

0°

(1981-2000)

Vulnerability of agricultural production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change Stefan Liersch, Jan Cools, Bakary Kone, Mori Diallo, Hagen Koch, Samuel Fournet, Fred Hattermann To be submitted to Environmental Science and Policy

RECCWEX

Publications• (1) Hattermann FF, Weiland M, Huang S, Krysanova V, Kundzewicz ZW (2011) Model-supported Impact

Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany under Climate Change – a Case Study . Water Resources Management, in print.

• (2) Huang S, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Bronstert A (2011) Projections for climate change affected river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional hydrological model . Submitted to Climatic Change.

• (3) Hattermann FF, Huang S, Burghoff O, Willems W, Österle H, Büchner M, Kundzewisz ZW (2011) Modeling flood damages under climate change – a case study for Germany [Resutls of the GDV insurance project]. Submitted to Natural Hazards.

• (4) Hattermann FF, Huang S, Koch H (2011) Climate change uncertainty and impacts on hydrology and hydropower production in Germany. Submitted to Water Resources Management.

• (5) Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW, Krysanova V, Burghoff O, Huang S, Vetter T, Merz B, Werner P, Gerstengarbe F-W. Climate track in rising floods and droughts in Germany. Status: Submitted to Nature / Climate Change on 20(?) Feb. 2011

• (6) Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW, Krysanova V, Huang S, Vetter T, Burghoff O, Kron W, Hauf Y, Werner P, Gerstengarbe F-W, Krysanova V, Merz B, Bronstert A. Flood risk in holistic perspective - observed changes in Germany. Chapter in the book: Changes of Flood Risk in Europe (Editor: Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Publisher: IAHS Press, Wallingford). Status: highly advanced (90%); Planned finalization: 25 March 2011.

• (7) Kundzewicz - editing of the book Changes of Flood Risk in Europe and entries to multiple chapters in the book. Publisher: IAHS Press, Wallingford. Status: advanced (40%); Planned finalization: 15 June 2011.

• (8) Hattermann et al. - Holistic view on flood risk change in Germany 1: Analysis of observations [journal paper based on item (5) above: interpretation of records of temperature, humidity, precipitation, intense precipitation, river flow, flood frequency, material damage]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J. Planned finalization: 30 April 2011.

• (9) Huang et al. - Holistic view on flood risk change in Germany 1: Modelling [journal paper based on item (5) above; interpretation of modelling results - river flow, flood frequency, material damage]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J. Planned finalization: 31 May 2011.

RECCWEX

Publications – continued• (10) Huang et al. – Projections of river low flows in Germany under climate change by combining three RCMs

and a regional hydrological model [Comparable to 1 but for low flow extremes instead of floods]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J., J. of Hydr. or Hyd. Proc. or similar Journal.

• (11) Kundzewicz et al. - Changes in climatological drivers of floods in Germany [journal paper based on item (5) above; interpretation of records of of temperature, humidity, precipitation, intense precipitation]. To be submitted to Theor. and Applied Climatology or International Journal of Climatology or Acta Geophysica. Planned finalization: 15 May 2011.

• (12) Huang et al. – Applying climate ensemble scenarios for investigation of hydro-climatic extremes in Central Europe [journal paper based on (1) but with climate scenario simulations of the ENSEMBLES project as input embracing different scenarios, GCMs and realizations]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J., J. of Hydr. or Hyd. Proc.. Planned finalization: 30 June 2011.

• (13) Hattermann et al. – Possible climate change impacts in Central Europe on flood generation and flood losses [journal paper based on (2) and (11) but with climate scenario simulations of the ENSEMBLES project as input for a wider estimation of possible flood losses]. To be submitted to Climatic Change or Nature Climate Change. Planned finalization: 30 June 2011.

• (14) Krysanova et al. – Droughts indices for Germany [extension of the study done for the Elbe basin (Krysanova et al. 2008a) including new results and investigations]. To be submitted to …. Planned finalization: 30 June 2011.

• (15) Liersch, S., Hattermann, F. et al. Vulnerability of agricultural production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change. To be submitted to Environmental Science and Policy

• (16) Liersch, S., Koch, H., Fournet, S., Hattermann, F.F. How to integrate wetland processes in river basin modeling? A West African case study. To be submitted to Hydrological Processes

RECCWEX

Publications – continued• Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (2009): Aktuelle Klimaentwicklungen - global bis regional. In: Böhmer, T. & Weißenborn, C.

(Hrsg.): Erneuerbare Energien - Perspektiven für die Stromerzeugung, 2. Auflage 2009 [Energie im Dialog, Bd. 3], S. 1 bis 18, Frankfurt a. Main: EW Medien und Kongresse GmbH, 2009 - ISBN 978-3-8022-0963-5

• Kücken, M., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Orlowsky, B. (2009): A Combination of Cluster Analysis and Kappa Statistic for the Evaluation of Climate Model Results. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 48, 2009, 1757-1765, DOI: 10.1175/2009JAMC2083.1

• Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Werner, P. C. (2009): Klimaextreme und ihr Gefährdungspotential für Deutschland. Geographische Rundschau, 9, 2009, 12-19

• Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (2009): Regional Climatology and Recent Climate Variability. In: Selected Contributions on Results of Climate Research in East Germany (the former GDR). Ed.: Hupfer, P., Dethloff, K., Berichte zur Polar- und Meeresforschung = Reports on polar and marine research, 588, 141-154

• Kundzewicz, Z. W., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Österle, H., Werner, P. C., Fricke, W. (2009): Recent anomalies of mean temperature of 12 consecutive months – Germany, Europe, Northern Hemisphere. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 95, 417-422, DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0013-9

• Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Werner, P.C. (2009): A short update on Koeppen climate shifts in Europe between 1901 and 2003. Climatic Change, 92, 1, 99-107, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9430-0

• Werner, P.C. , Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (2010): Katalog der Großwetterlagen Europas (1881-2009) nach Paul Hess und Helmut Brezowsky, 7. verbesserte und ergänzte Auflage. PIK Report, 119, 146 S.

• Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Endlicher, W. (2010): Continents under Climate Change. Von den Kippprozessen im Erdsystem zum Dominoeffekt des Klimawandels. humboldt-spektrum, 1-2/2010, 46-53

• Orlowsky, B., Bothe, O., Fraedrich, K., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Zhu, X. (2010): Future climates from bias-bootstrapped weather analogues: an application to the Yangtze river basin. Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3271.1, early online release

RECCWEX

Publications – continued

• “Bias-bootstrapped weather analogues for future climates” F.-W. Gerstengarbe, K. Fraedrich, B. Orlowsky and P. C. Werner, Nonlinear processes in geophysics

• “The damage development in storm/hail events with regard to climate change in Germany”, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, P.C. Werner, H. Österle, Geneva Report

• “Spatial-temporal changes of meteorological parameters in selected circulation patterns”, Peter C. Werner, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Climate Research

• "Recent global warming induced climate changes“, P.C. Werner and F.-W. Gerstengarbe, H. Österle, M. Wodinski, "Global Warming / Book 1", ISBN 978-953-308-97-6

• “A very-high-Resolution Simulation of the Drought Summer 2003 in Germany using the Regional Model CLM”, Kücken M., Büchner, M., Böhm, U., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

• “Quality of CCLM in reproducing components of the near-surface water balance in the Elbe river catchment ”, J. Volkholz, U. Böhm, F. Hattermann,

• „Recent and future climate development in South Africa“, J. Lutz, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, H. Österle, J. Volkholz, P.C. Werner, Theoretical and Applied Climatology

RECCWEX

Links to other departments and groups

• Insurance project in cooperation with RD III

• Develop of methods and data exchange with RD IV (projects ECONS, PROGRESS)

• Downscaling of large scale results in regional hot-spots in cooperation with RD I (Monsoon failure and impacts in India – Ganges and Indus basins)

• Cooperation with LPJ group (scenario development, exchange of methods and modules)

RECCWEX

Future strategy

• Investigation of tipping points and impacts at the regional scale;

• Set-up of a global climate data base emulating/ reproducing the bandwidth of GCM scenarios for the regional scale;

• Further development and application of a state-of-the-art model system integrating climate, water and vegetation including feedbacks;

• Investigation of vulnerability and possible adaptation measures – “no regret measures”;

• Stronger link to the global scale;

• Stronger integration of “cities” and “health”.

RECCWEX

Selected tasks

• Scenario development for „Tipping-Point-Regions“ in cooperation with FB I

• Development of a tool/ model system for climate impact reserach

• Applicatikon of the model system world wide

• Quantification of vulnerability and investigation of adaptation measures

• CCLM and STAR simulations in the frame of the CORDEX initiative

• Programme for the 5. Assessment Report of the IPCC

• Link to the global scale

RECCWEX

Selected tasks

• Simulation of climate scenarios for the past in Germany (first 1801 – 1900, in a second step 1501 – 1900)

• Implementation and further development of a city modul for CCLM

• Investigation of complex networks in natural processes (together with FB IV)

• Investigation of the actual climate development

• Model comparison workshop

• Länderkonferenz

• Publications

RECCWEX

Problems and Challenges

• Visibility of results in the institute;

• Acceptance for regional studies in general;

• Acceptance for applied research (outsourcing …);

• Link to global scale/ studies;