Rebalancing the World: Asia takes centre stage · 1.0 220 240 260 280 00 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 180 200...

ASIA PACIFIC

Rebalancing the World: Asia takes centre stage

Sean Darby Chief Equity Strategist Asia ex JapanSean Darby, Chief Equity Strategist, Asia ex-Japan

Mixo Das, Equity Strategy, Asia ex-Japan See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 36 to 40.

ASIA PACIFIC

MSCI Asia ex JP / MSCI World (US$)150

130140150

100110120

708090

5060

01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11

Source: Bloomberg Nomura International (HK) Ltd Investment Strategy

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

0

Jul-0

Jan-

Jul-

Jan-

© Nomura 2

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

Global liquidity (%m-m)(%m m)

34 5

(%m-m)

01 2 3

(3)(2)(1)0

(4)(3)

v-78

v-80

v-82

v-84

v-86

v-88

v-90

v-92

v-94

v-96

v-98

v-00

v-02

v-04

v-06

v-08

v-10

Note: World Liquidity is 3-month moving average of sum of world foreign reserve excluding Gold, USM1, and US term deposit.Source: IMF, FRB, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited - Investment Strategy

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

© Nomura 3

, , , ( g g) gy

ASIA PACIFIC

Central banksTotal assets of the ECBBank of Japan Reserve Balances (5d moving

average, JPY tr)

1,6001,8002,0002,200(Eur bn)

25

30

35

40

600800

1,0001,2001,400

9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1

5

10

15

20

25

US: Commercial Banking Assets / FRB total assets (%)

Apr-

99

Apr-

00

Apr-

0

Apr-

02

Apr-

03

Apr-

04

Apr-

05

Apr-

06

Apr-

07

Apr-

08

Apr-

09

Apr-

10

Apr-

10

Mar

-00

Aug-

00Ja

n-01

Jun-

01N

ov-0

1A p

r-02

Sep-

02Fe

b-03

Jul-0

3D

ec-0

3M

ay-0

4O

ct-0

4M

ar-0

5Au

g-05

Jan-

06Ju

n-06

Nov

-06

A pr-

07Se

p-07

Feb-

08Ju

l-08

Dec

-08

Ma y

-09

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Aug-

10Ja

n-11

90010001100120013001400

400500600700800

60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11

© Nomura 4

Jan‐6

Jan‐6

Jan‐6

Jan‐6

Jan‐7

Jan‐7

Jan‐7

Jan‐8

Jan‐8

Jan‐8

Jan‐9

Jan‐9

Jan‐9

Jan‐9

Jan‐0

Jan‐0

Jan‐0

Jan‐1

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Nomura International (HK) Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

Number of times the word “stagflation" appears in the pressappears in the press

18002000

140016001800

80010001200

200400600

0

Jan-

07

Apr-

07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

© Nomura

Source: Factiva, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

5

J A O J A O J A O J A O J A

ASIA PACIFIC

Asia correlations with carry trade1-year rolling correlation of G10 carry trade currency index vs MSCI Asia ex JP (US$)

G10 carry trade index

3001.0

220

240

260

280

0 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

180

200

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

(0.4)

(0.2)

0.0

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura International (HK) Investment Strategy

© Nomura 6

ASIA PACIFIC

EM and DM equity fund flows EM net inflows DM net inflows

Source: EPFR Global, ICI, Nomura International (HK) Ltd — Equity Quantitative Strategies

7© Nomura

ASIA PACIFIC

Speculative positioning in currenciesMXN Non-Commercial PositionAUD Non-Commercial Position

CAD Non-Commercial Position

© Nomura 8

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura FX Research

ASIA PACIFIC

Net long non-commercial position on oil (as % of total)(as % of total)

80%90%

50%60%70%

30%40%50%

0%10%20%

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

© Nomura 9

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura International (HK) Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

Risk appetite is highML Luxury and Lifestyle Index MSCI Asia Pac ex JP small cap relative to MSCI y y

Asia Pac ex JP

160

180

200

160180200

100

120

140

160

6080

100120140160

80

Jun-

01O

ct-0

1F

eb-0

2Ju

n-02

Oct

-02

Feb

-03

Jun-

03O

ct-0

3F

eb-0

4Ju

n-04

Oct

-04

Feb

-05

Jun-

05O

ct-0

5F

eb-0

6Ju

n-06

Oct

-06

Feb

-07

Jun-

07O

ct-0

7F

eb-0

8Ju

n-08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun-

09O

ct-0

9F

eb-1

0Ju

n-10

Oct

-10

Feb

-11

Jun-

11

40

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

© Nomura 10

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

US: Investor SentimentAAII US investor sentiment bull to bear spreadInvestors intelligence bull/bear ratio

60

70

80% Bulls/(Bulls+Bears)

10

30

50Bulls - Bears

20

30

40

50

-70

-50

-30

-10

Mar

-06

Jul-0

6

Nov

-06

Mar

-07

Jul-0

7

Nov

-07

Mar

-08

Jul-0

8

Nov

-08

Mar

-09

Jul-0

9

Nov

-09

Mar

-10

Jul-1

0

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Source: Investors Intelligence, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, AAII, Nomura International (HK) - Investment Strategy

© Nomura 11

ASIA PACIFIC

US wholesale inventories to sales (I-S) ratios US Wholesalers : I-S ratio Wholesale I-S ratio: Durable GoodsUS Wholesalers : I S ratio Wholesale I S ratio: Durable Goods

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 1

Wholesale I-S ratio: Motor Vehicles and Auto Equip

Wholesale I-S ratio: Machinery, Equipment, & Supplies

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

1

Jan-

1

Auto Equip & Supplies

2 50

2.70

2.90

3.10

1 80

2.00

2.20

2.40

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

-92

-93

-94

-95

-96

-97

-98

-99

-00

-01

-02

-03

-04

-05

-06

-07

-08

-09

-10

-11

Source: CEIC, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy12© Nomura

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

9

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

0

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

Jan-

ASIA PACIFIC

Asia: Industrial inventory-shipment ratiosRatio

1 6

1.7

1.8Taiwan Korea Japan Thailand

1.4

1.5

1.6

1 1

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.7

0.8

Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11

Source: CEIC and Nomura Global Economics13© Nomura

ASIA PACIFIC

Slowdown in China and USChina: Manufacturing PMI US Manufacturing PMI: new order – inventoriesg

Source: CEIC, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

© Nomura 14

ASIA PACIFIC

China electricity production and consumptionChina: electricity consumption minus production China: past 10 days rainfall (mm)China: electricity consumption minus production(3mma)

China: past 10 days rainfall (mm)

Note: Methodology of calculation of Consumption and Production differs

© Nomura 15

Source: CEIC, Beijing Climate Centre, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

China: dieselChina: Purchase Price of Diesel Oil, No 0 Energy production by diesel (actual and %y-y)

7,5008,0008,500(RMB/Ton)

(RMB/Ton)Energy production by diesel (actual and %y y)

4,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

Dec

-07

Feb-

08

Apr-

08

Jun-

08

Aug-

08

Oct

-08

Dec

-08

Feb-

09

Apr-

09

Jun-

09

Aug-

09

Oct

-09

Dec

-09

Feb-

10

Apr-

10

Jun-

10

Aug-

10

Oct

-10

Dec

-10

Feb-

11

Apr-

11

© Nomura 16


ASIA PACIFIC

China: Machine tools: NC ratio (%)40

35

40

25

30

15

20

10

15

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-10

-10

-10

-10

-10

-10

-11

-11

Note: NC is Numerically (or Digitally) controlled. NC Ratio is ratio of NC tools to total toolsSource: CEIC, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

Jan-

Mar

-M

ay-

Jul-

Sep

-N

ov-

Jan-

Mar

-M

ay-

Jul-

Sep

-N

ov-

Jan-

Mar

-M

ay-

Jul-

Sep

-N

ov-

Jan-

Mar

-M

ay-

Jul-

Sep

-N

ov-

Jan-

Mar

-M

ay-

Jul-

Sep

-N

ov-

Jan-

Mar

-

© Nomura 17

( ) gy

ASIA PACIFIC

China: % of loans charged above benchmark lending rateslending rates

60(%)

50

55

40

45

50

35

40

30

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep

-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep

-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

© Nomura 18

Source: CEIC, Nomura International (HK) Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

China real GDP growth vs Australia deposit ratesrates

9

101516

6

7

8

11121314

4

5

6

89

1011

2

3

678

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0

Dec

-9

Dec

-9

Dec

-9

Dec

-9

Dec

-9

Dec

-9

Dec

-9

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-0

Dec

-1

China GDP growth (ytd, %y-y, lhs) Australia 1yr term deposit rates (%, rhs)

© Nomura 19


ASIA PACIFIC

IndiaIndia: Manufacturing PMI SENSEX FY12F earnings changesg

Source: Bloomberg, Markit Economics, Nomura

© Nomura 20

ASIA PACIFIC

Purchasing power of the US dollar4 5

3.5

4.0

4.5

2 0

2.5

3.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0

0.5

00 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 0

Source: Table 121. The Consumer Price Index, 1800-1972,(1) Selected Groups, and Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar, 1913-72 -- (1967=100) - Handbook of Labor Statistics -- 1973 (1)

Indexes from 1800-1912 estimated by splicing the following series: 1800-1851 -- Index of Prices Paid by Vermont Farmers for Family Living; 1851-1890 -- Consumer Price Index by Ethel D. Hoover; 1890-1912 -- Cost of Living Index by Albert Rees. - Handbook of Labor Statistics -- 1973

180

181

182

183

184

185

186

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

© Nomura 21

Handbook of Labor Statistics -- 1973; U.S. Dept of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Washington, DC 20212

The Value of a Dollar; Prices & Incomes in United States; 1860-1999; Scott Derks, ed.; Grey House pub, Lakeville, CT (c) 1999; p. 2 -- The Value of a Dollar, 1860 - 1997

Fed. Reserve Bank of Minneapolis -- U.S. Economic Data

ASIA PACIFIC

Long-term returns

© Nomura 22

Note: From 1926 to 2009

Source: Ibbotson Stocks, Bonds, Bills, Inflation

ASIA PACIFIC

Gold prices

640.0

1280.0

160.0

320.0

40.0

80.0

10.0

20.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Note: log scale

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

© Nomura 23

Note: log scale

Source: Robert Shiller, Bloomberg, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Investment Strategy

ASIA PACIFIC

S&P 50010000 0

1000 0

10000.0

100.0

1000.0

10.0

1.0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Note: log scale

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

© Nomura 24

Note: log scale


ASIA PACIFIC

S&P 500 cyclically adjusted P/E ratio

40.0

45.0

50.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

10 0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Note: Price / 10 yr average inflation adjusted earnings

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

© Nomura 25

Note: Price / 10-yr average inflation-adjusted earnings


ASIA PACIFIC

S&P 500 cyclically adjusted dividend yield

12.0

14.0

8.0

10.0

4.0

6.0

0.0

2.0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Note: 10 yr average inflation adjusted dividends / Price

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

© Nomura 26

Note: 10-yr average inflation-adjusted dividends / Price


ASIA PACIFIC

S&P 500 adjusted for inflation (CPI)

1920.0

3840.0

480.0

960.0

240.0

60.0

120.0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Note: log scale

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

© Nomura 27

Note: log scale


ASIA PACIFIC

S&P 500 relative to gold prices

960.0

1920.0

240.0

480.0

120.0

30.0

60.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Note: log scale

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

© Nomura 28

Note: log scale


ASIA PACIFIC

Other asset classesHong Kong Taxi LicenseNew York Taxi Medallion

700 000800,000 900,000

1,000,000 Individual Prices

Corporation Prices

US$

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000

5 6 7 8 9

Art (Old Masters)Fine Wine

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

0 5

Jul-0

5

Jan-

0 6

Jul-0

6

Jan-

0 7

Jul-0

7

Jan-

0 8

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

4 0005,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 (Index)

200250 300 350 400 (Index)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

b-85

b-87

b-89

b-91

b-93

b-95

b-97

b-99

b-01

b-03

b-05

b-07

b-09

0 50

100 150 200

b-88

b-89

b-90

b-91

b-92

b-93

b-94

b-95

b-96

b-97

b-98

b-99

b-00

b-01

b-02

b-03

b-04

b-05

b-06

b-07

b-08

b-09

b-10

b-11

© Nomura 29

Source: New York Taxi and Limousine Commission, Taxixchange, Bloomberg

Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe FeFe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe

ASIA PACIFIC

Aggregate earnings momentumB B By country By sector

Earnings % of cos with % of cos withCountry momentum index +ve ERI i,t -ve ERI i,t

Best Thailand 2 60 59 1 22 7

Regional sector Earnings momentum index

Previous month rank

Best Energy 1.42 1Best Thailand 2.60 59.1 22.7Hong Kong 1.22 53.7 43.9Korea 1.14 48.5 42.7Malaysia 1.11 50.0 45.2China 1.00 47.6 47.6Australia 0.74 40.0 54.3T i 0 71 35 8 50 4

Best gyConsumer Discretionary 1.30 3Financials 1.28 2Materials 1.19 5Telecommunication Services 0.90 6Consumer Staples 0.90 7Industrials 0 71 4

Note: May 2011 Note: May 2011

Taiwan 0.71 35.8 50.4Singapore 0.68 40.6 59.4

Worst India 0.64 38.9 61.1Total 0.91 44.3 48.9

Industrials 0.71 4Information Technology 0.54 9Utilities 0.35 8

Worst Health Care 0.23 10

Source: Worldscope, I/B/E/S, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Quantitative Strategies Source: Worldscope, I/B/E/S, Nomura International (HK) Ltd – Quantitative Strategies

31© Nomura

ASIA PACIFIC

AP ex JP: earnings revision and valuations AP ex JP: Earnings revision (3MA) AP ex Japan: valuationsAP ex JP: Earnings revision (3MA) AP ex Japan: valuations

Fwd PE Price/Book EV/Sales EV/EBIT

DA Div Yld FCF Yld ROE ROCE

Developed Asia 12.3 1.8 1.7 9.4 3.6 2.9 13.2 9.8

Australia 11.4 2 1 7 8 6 4 3 3 14 4 11 210

15

20 Emerging Asia Developed Asia

Australia 11.4 2 1.7 8.6 4.3 3 14.4 11.2Hong Kong 13.9 1.7 2.3 11.8 2.4 3.3 11.6 7.9New Zealand 13.8 1.7 1.6 6.9 5.2 6.7 9.8 9.2Singapore 13 1.7 1.1 8.8 3.2 0.3 12.9 9.4

Emerging Asia 11.3 2 1.0 6.6 2.3 2.4 16.6 10.2China 9.8 1.9 1.2 6.6 2.7 2.7 17.7 10.6-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

China 9.8 1.9 1.2 6.6 2.7 2.7 17.7 10.6India 13.7 2.9 2.1 9.4 1.1 0.6 19.1 11.2Indonesia 13.8 4.5 2.5 8.2 2.3 2.8 28.3 16.6Malaysia 14.5 2.4 2.5 9 3 4.8 14.8 8.9Pakistan 7.2 2.4 0.4 4.5 5.2 9.5 30.3 27.6Philippines 14.6 2.9 2.2 8.5 2.8 4.5 20.2 13.5South Korea 9 7 1 5 0 7 5 4 1 2 1 9 16 3 10

-30

-25

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11South Korea 9.7 1.5 0.7 5.4 1.2 1.9 16.3 10Taiwan 13.3 2 0.9 7.2 4 3 13.3 9.4Thailand 11.1 2.4 1.1 4.2 3.2 6 19.2 11.8

Source: Nomura Strategy Insight, FTSE, IBES, Worldscope (As of 06 Jun 2011)

Note: Developed Asia includes AU, HK, NZ, SGSource: Nomura Strategy Insight

© Nomura 32

ASIA PACIFIC

G SGlobal Equity StrategyChief Global and EuropeanStrategistLONDON

Strategist, EuropeLONDON

SCOTT, IANTel: +44-20-7102-2959E-mail: [email protected]

DEV, RISHAVTel: +44-20-7102-9122E-mail: [email protected]

Senior Strategist, EuropeLONDON

NAIR, SHANTHITel: +44-20-7102-4518

Chief Strategist, Asia ex-JapanHONG KONG

DARBY, SEANTel: +44-20-7102-4518E-mail: [email protected]


Tel: +852-2252-2182E-mail: [email protected]

Strategist, ChinaHONG KONG

DIVER, MARKTel: +44-20-7102-2987E-mail: [email protected]

HONG KONG

WU, HENRYTel: +852-2252-2122E-mail: [email protected]


Strategist, IndiaINDIA

AFREH, MICHAELTel: +44-20-7102-7248E-mail: [email protected]

AWASTHI, PRABHATTel: +91-22-4037-4180E-mail: [email protected]

© Nomura 33

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G SGlobal Equity StrategyStrategist, MalaysiaMALAYSIA

Chief Strategist, JapanTOKYO

CHOONG, WAI KEETel: +60-3-2027-6893E-mail: [email protected]

IWASAWA, SEIICHIROTel: +81-3-5255-1676E-mail: [email protected]

Strategist, SingaporeSINGAPORE

LIM JIT SOON

Corporate Eamings Analysis,JapanTOKYO

ITO, TAKASHITel: +81-3-6703-1252LIM, JIT SOON

Tel: +65-6433-6969E-mail: [email protected]

Strategist, Indonesia

Tel: +81-3-6703-1252E-mail: [email protected]

Technical Analysis, JapanTOKYOSt ateg st, do es a

INDONESIA

IE, WILIANTOTel: +62-21-2991-3341E-mail: [email protected]

TOKYO

YAMAUCHI, SHOICHIROTel: +81-3-6703-1253E-mail: [email protected]

Strategist, TaiwanTAIWAN

WANG, JESSETel: +886-2-2176-9977E-mail: [email protected]

© Nomura 34

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G SGlobal Equity StrategyStrategist, JapanTOKYO

SAKAGAMI, RYOTATel: +81-3-6703-1255E-mail: [email protected]

EQUITY RESEARCH - JAPAN

Strategy (Small-cap Stocks)TOKYO

Thematic ResearchTOKYO

MOTOMURA, MASAKITel: +81-3-6703-1119E-mail: [email protected]

MIYACHI, KUNIHARUTel: +81-3-6703-1114E-mail: [email protected]



IWATA, YOSHIYATel: +81-3-6703-1120E-mail: [email protected]

YOKOYAMA, KYOICHIROTel: +81-3-6703-1113E-mail: [email protected]

© Nomura 35

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ANALYST CERTIFICATIONWe, Sean Darby and Mixo Das, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.

Important DisclosuresConflict-of-interest disclosuresImportant disclosures may be accessed through the following website: http://www.nomura.com/research/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx . If you have difficulty with this site or you do not have a password, please contact your Nomura Securities International, Inc. salesperson (1-877-865-5752) or email [email protected] for assistance.

Online availability of research and additional conflict-of-interest disclosuresNomura Japanese Equity Research is available electronically for clients in the US on NOMURA.COM, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG and THOMSON ONE ANALYTICS. For clients in Europe, Japan and elsewhere in Asia it is available on NOMURA.COM, REUTERS and BLOOMBERG.Important disclosures may be accessed through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page http://www.nomura.com/research or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email [email protected] for technical assistance.The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking

activities.activities.Industry Specialists identified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are responsible for the sales and trading effort in the sector for which they have

coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content of research reports in which their names appear.Marketing Analysts identified in some Nomura research reports are research analysts employed by Nomura International plc who are primarily responsible for marketing Nomura’s Equity Research product in the sector for which they have coverage. Marketing Analysts may also contribute to research reports in which their names appear and publish research on their sector.

Distribution of ratings (Global)The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows:The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows:49% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 37% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.40% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 11% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 16% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.As at 31 March 2011.

36© Nomura

*The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report.

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Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America for ratings published from 27 October 2008The rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to target price defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc.

STOCKSA rating of 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months.A rating of 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months.A rating of 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months.A rating of 'Suspended', indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: Please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks (accessible through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure p g p ( gweb page: http://www.nomura.com/research);Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology.

SECTORSA 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months.A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months.A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months.Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia.

Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published from 30 October 2008 and in Japan from 6 January 2009STOCKSStock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc.A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more.y p p %A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%.A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more.A rating of 'Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company.Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies.

SECTORSSECTORSA 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation.A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation.A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation.

37© Nomura

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Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan published prior to 6 January 2009 (and ratings in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America published prior to 27 October 2008)STOCKSA rating of '1' or 'Strong buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months.A rating of '2' or 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months.A rating of '3' or 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to either outperform or underperform the Benchmark by less than 5% over the next six months.A rating of '4' or 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months.A rating of '5' or 'Sell', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months.g , y p p y %Stocks labeled 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in Nomura's regular research coverage. Nomura might not publish additional research reports concerning this company, and it undertakes no obligation to update the analysis, estimates, projections, conclusions or other information contained herein.

SECTORSA 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next six months.A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next six months.A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next six months.Benchmarks are as follows: Japan: TOPIX; United States: S&P 500 MSCI World Technology Hardware & Equipment; Europe by sector Hardware/Semiconductors: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware;Benchmarks are as follows: Japan: TOPIX; United States: S&P 500, MSCI World Technology Hardware & Equipment; Europe, by sector - Hardware/Semiconductors: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Telecoms: FTSE W Europe Business Services; Business Services: FTSE W Europe; Auto & Components: FTSE W Europe Auto & Parts; Communications equipment: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Ecology Focus: Bloomberg World Energy Alternate Sources; Global Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia.

Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published prior to 30 October 2008STOCKSStock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Fair Value - Current Price)/Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Fair Value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as Discounted Cash Flow or Multiple analysis etc. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will revalue the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the fair value may differ from the intrinsic fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the difference between current market price and our estimate of current intrinsic fair value. Recommendations are set with a 6-12 month horizon unless specified otherwise. Accordingly, within this horizon, price volatility may cause the actual upside or downside based on the prevailing market price to differ from the upside or downside implied by the recommendation.A 'Strong buy' recommendation indicates that upside is more than 20%.A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that upside is between 10% and 20%.A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that upside or downside is less than 10%.A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that downside is between 10% and 20%A Reduce recommendation indicates that downside is between 10% and 20%.A 'Sell' recommendation indicates that downside is more than 20%.

SECTORSA 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation.A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation.A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation.

T P iTarget PriceA Target Price, if discussed, reflect in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any target price may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates.

38© Nomura

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Rebalancing the World: Asia takes centre stage · 1.0 220 240 260 280 00 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 180 200...

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