Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan
-
Upload
anucrawfordphd -
Category
Travel
-
view
533 -
download
1
Transcript of Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan
![Page 1: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Realism Meets Nation Building
The US policy elite’s critique of US
foreign policy in Pakistan Alicia Mollaun 3rd year PhD student POGO
![Page 2: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Research Project • Examina:on of US and Pakistan elite percep:ons of US foreign and aid policy in Pakistan in the post 9/11 era.
• 38 face-‐to-‐face interviews conducted in Washington D.C. and New York in March 2012.
• 40 face-‐to-‐face interviews conducted in Islamabad and Lahore between October 2011 and October 2013.
![Page 3: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Research themes/chapters • 1. US elite views of US foreign policy in Pakistan • 2. US elite views of US aid to Pakistan • 3. Pakistan elite views of US foreign policy in Pakistan • 4. Pakistan elite views of US aid to Pakistan • 5. Comparison of US and Pakistani views
![Page 4: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Research Questions – this chapter • Does the US elite think that the main challenges facing Pakistan are internal or external? • Does the US elite think that US policy in Pakistan is mainly guided by realist or by na:on building objec:ves? • How sa:sfied overall is the US elite with US foreign policy in Pakistan?
![Page 5: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Literature • Proponents: US responsibility to na:on build (see Dobbins (2003) (2007); Lesser (1999)) • Argue that despite limited success – worthy policy. • Fukuyama (2004): threats come from weak states – in the US interest to teach people to be_er govern themselves.
• Realist Cri0cs: See Morrell et al (1999); Pei and Kasper (2003); Dempsey and Fontaine (2001); Dempsey (2002). • Not the job of the US to na:on build – par:cularly as a means to counter terrorism. • Dempsey argues that na:on building won’t combat terrorism – CT hinges on policy of ‘victory and credible deterrence’.
![Page 6: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Literature • Large case study based literature of US na:on building: • Post 9/11, majority of literature focused on Iraq and Afghanistan, li_le on US na:on building in Pakistan.
• Afghanistan and Iraq: Fukuyama (2006) • Iraq: Dodge (2003), Diamond (2006) • Afghanistan: Goodson (2005), Rubin (2003) • Pakistan/Afghanistan/Central Asia: Rashid (2008)
• Li_le considera:on of Pakistan -‐ (Rashid (2008) a journalis:c excep:on), or on possible trade-‐offs/tensions between realist and na:on-‐building objec:ves.
• This research fills a gap on the literature on Pakistan and na:on building; and on US elite percep:ons of US policy more broadly.
![Page 7: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Obama’s nation building strategy in Pakistan
Af-‐Pak Strategy 2009: “Today, it is clearer than ever before that we must expand our rela:onship with Pakistan beyond security issues, and lead the interna:onal community in helping the Pakistani people overcome poli:cal, economic, and security challenges that threaten Pakistan’s stability, and in turn undermine regional stability.”
![Page 8: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
But with a hint of realism Obama: “Pakistan must demonstrate its commitment to roo:ng out al Qaeda and the violent extremists within its borders. And we will insist that ac:on be taken -‐-‐ one way or another -‐-‐ when we have intelligence about high-‐level terrorist targets.” (2009)
![Page 9: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
So what does the US policy elite think about US policy in Pakistan?
![Page 10: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What is the major short-‐ to medium-‐term challenge facing Pakistan? • Wide range of challenges iden0fied:
• 34 different challenges named; 83 responses given. • Number of respondents = 36
• 14 of 36 elite respondents (39%) name at least one external challenge
• 30 of 36 elite respondents (83%) name at least one internal challenge
![Page 11: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
What is the major short-‐ to medium-‐term challenge facing Pakistan?
Most popular responses and number of respondents:
External (25% of total responses)
Internal (75% of total responses)
Afghanistan (5) Economy (10) India (5) Energy (6) Securing Nukes (3) Extremism (6)
![Page 12: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What is the major short-‐ to medium-‐term challenge facing Pakistan?
“The domes:c situa:on in Pakistan will be cri:cal. It is going to be the economic problems that will be the driver, which will out of necessity force Pakistan into rethinking its regional rela:onships. The US obviously has a great interest in this because an unstable Pakistan is not going to help in crea:ng a stable Afghanistan or a stable South Asia.” Interview: Shuja Nawaz, The Atlan:c Council.
![Page 13: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
What does the US want most from Pakistan? • 18 different ‘wants’ iden:fied; 63 total responses (average of two per respondent) • Number of respondents = 32 Realist
63% (total responses)
Na0on Building 27%
Don’t know 10%
Afghanistan (17) Stability (7) US doesn’t know what it wants (4)
Counterterrorism (non-‐state actors) (6)
Extremism (social phenomenon) (5)
US has too many conflic:ng goals (2)
Nuclear Security (5) Governance (2)
![Page 14: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Realist perspectives
“Why are we giving Pakistan this aid? It is Nigeria with nuclear weapons. That is, it is a poor country that cannot meet its budget, but it doesn’t have oil. So in a sense it is a form of blackmail…Pakistanis know that we regard their survival as important to us.” Interview: Stephen Cohen, Brookings Ins:tu:on 2013
![Page 15: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Nation building perspectives “There are more extremists, a more religiously conserva:ve popula:on – that is what the trend is. Part of the problem is that there are always things to mul:ply that – a lack of educa:on, lack of jobs, lack of a stable economy. We don’t have programs to address it [extremism] at all … it is too much of a band-‐aid approach” Interview: Poli:cal Staffer, Washington D.C.
![Page 16: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
What is the one key factor you would change in US policy towards Pakistan? • 74% of responses advocated for a complete overhaul of US policy
• 24 different policy changes advocated, total responses 34 • Number of respondents = 26 • Wide range of changes suggested, most popular
Complete Policy Overhaul (74%)
Discrete Reforms (26%)
Take a longer term approach (5)
Make aid pay as you go (2)
Reset rela:ons (3) Promote peace with India (2)
Improve US credibility (2) Reduce drone strikes (1)
![Page 17: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
What is the one key factor you would change in US policy towards Pakistan?
“The US has no long-‐term strategy for its rela:onship with Pakistan. They have a strategy based on the war in Afghanistan. If you read the strategic documents the Obama Administra:on puts out, the purpose of the rela:onship with Pakistan is to defeat and dismantle AQ, prevent safe havens and nuclear issues. It is all limited to that agenda. This is the problem.” Interview: Shamila Chaudhary, New America Founda:on
![Page 18: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
How satisDied overall is the US elite with US foreign policy in Pakistan? • Very dissa:sfied. • Dissa:sfac:on expressed in very general terms – “take a longer term approach”.
• Indicates dissa:sfac:on with US policy on the whole (both military and civilian).
• Lack of ‘discrete’ or specific policy ideas tells us that there are no easy fixes for the US in Pakistan.
![Page 19: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Why the dissatisfaction? • It is difficult to achieve realist and na:on building goals in Pakistan: • Messaging gets lost – US asks too much of Pakistan – the elite think there are too many goals/unclear goals.
• Pakistan’s weak government and civil-‐military tension. • Over the past decade the US has go_en li_le bang for its buck in Pakistan – aid for na:on building has yielded poor results in terms of Pakistan assis:ng the US with security goals (realist goals) – so why keep pursuing this policy?
“I am not quite sure the US knows what it wants. American policy is in the midst of transi:on, from a near myopic focus…on the war on terror…the Obama Administra:on sustained many aspects of the Bush approach and tried to add civilian aid…but never really broke the narra:ve -‐ a principle objec:ve of the Obama Administra:on’s engagement was the outcome of its investments in Afghanistan.” Interview: Steve Coll, New America Founda:on
![Page 20: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Why the dissatisfaction? • There is disconnect between US goals and Pakistan’s priori:es • Many elite believe there is li_le convergence of na:onal interests, especially regarding the Taliban and Pakistan’s strategic use of terrorist networks.
“We want things Pakistan does not want to do or cannot deliver on. There is a direct correla:on, the security apparatus knows, that if they extend their CT opera:ons beyond the Pakistan Taliban, they are invi:ng a world of hurt. So they can’t deliver or don’t want to deliver. I don’t see it changing. They are promising less and delivering li_le. Except for against those guys [terrorists] that are aiming at them.” Interview, Michael Krepon, S:mson Centre
![Page 21: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Why the dissatisfaction? • The pursuit of realist objec:ves undermines na:on building goals: • The elite are cognisant that the US’s transac:onal approach to the
rela:onship and pursuing short-‐term policy is not in the US’s long-‐term interests in building a stable and secure Pakistan.
• The elite argue that the US rela:onship with Pakistan is viewed through the lens of Afghanistan – this damaged US-‐Pak rela:ons and has undermined na:on building goals given Pakistan thinks the US is helping Pakistan in exchange for security coopera:on.
“I would want to take a much longer approach…This idea of thinking about Pakistan in the long-‐term rather than the short-‐term should be front and centre. Think about the 10-‐20 year :me frame, not what you want out of Pakistan next year… The threat of another 9/11 hangs over every poli:cians head. That overwhelms every other policy decision. If doing something slightly increases the chance that we will have another a_ack – no one wants to touch it, even if it is just the percep:on.” Interview: Danny Cutherell, Centre for Global Development
![Page 22: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusion • Looking at elite responses across all three research ques:ons, some interes:ng pa_erns emerge with regards to elite percep:ons: • Pakistan needs help primarily with its internal challenges –the elite are more likely to nominate internal rather than external challenges when asked what Pakistan’s main problems are.
![Page 23: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Conclusion
• US primary goals in Pakistan are realist ones – despite the Obama rhetoric, the elite think that when it comes to Pakistan, realist goals are more important than na:on building for the US.
![Page 24: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Conclusion
• US policy in Pakistan needs to be overhauled – Most of the elite advocate a complete overhaul or reset rather than more specific reforms.
![Page 25: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Conclusion • I argue that this dissa:sfac:on with US policy reflects: • the difficulty of achieving either realist or na:on building goals • the disconnect between Pakistani needs and US priori:es • the fact that the pursuit of realist objec:ves undermines the achievement of na:on building.
![Page 26: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Concluding remarks • In context of this broader research project, US elite views are not too dissimilar to Pakistan elite views. • Pakistan elite also emphasise internal challenges – though there is greater agreement on what the internal challenges are.
• Both have a realist perspec:ve. Some of the elite argue that US aid to Pakistan should be scaled back; many elite in Pakistan advocate cancelling it altogether.
• The Pakistan elite, however, is less dissa:sfied with the way its government is conduc:ng policy vis-‐à-‐vis the US – and collec:vely blame the US for many of its country’s woes.
![Page 27: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Concluding remarks
Important applica:ons of this research: • Ul:mately, the US will have a greater probability of success in Pakistan if its broad geopoli:cal interests dovetail with those of both the elite and the people in the target na:on – and if the US can be_er understand the perspec:ves of the elite.
• This research adds to the large body of literature on elite opinion and fills a gap with respect to Pakistan. There is li_le in-‐depth research on the foreign policy views of the elite in Pakistan, or the US elite concerning US policy in Pakistan.
![Page 28: Realism Meets Nation Building The US policy elite’s critique of US foreign policy in Pakistan](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052522/55490391b4c9051b3a8b4653/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Discussion and Q&A