Real-time system
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Transcript of Real-time system
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Real-
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Expert Team on
Operational Ocean Forecast Systems
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Real-
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Why has it been created? (What is an ET?)
What are its objectives?
How will it achieve those objectives?
GODAE OceanView and ET-OOFS
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Key themes
- coordination, regulation and management
- fully integrated observing, data management and service systems
- responsive to interdisciplinary user needs
- outreach and capacity building
- improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO)
Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology
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IOC WMO
JCOMM-MAN
SPA OPA
ETOOFS ETWS
Family tree – not static, preparing for JCOMMIII
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Services Programme Area
Maintains the “statement of guidance”
Manages a number of Expert Teams, ET-WS, ET-MSS, ET-MAES, ET-SI
Proposed ET-OOFS to JCOMM-MAN in Dec 2007 to guide pre-operational GODAE OOFS into fully operational ocean services
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Expert teams
Goal:
Improve the quality of services provided by the agencies of member states in their respective theme
Types of Objectives:
Develop guidance for operational agencies to encourage adoption of best practices and standards for services across agencies
Develop and maintain requirements documentation for operational systems
Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of services
Coordinate actions to address identified deficiencies in services
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ET-OOFS: Current ToR – under review for JCOMMIII
ET-OFS ToR and Workplan being finalised for JCOMM-III
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ET-OOFS Operational monitoring
Develop and maintain the guide for “operational ocean forecast systems” for which JCOMM-MAN/SPA/ET-OOFS will endorse for all member agencies
The guide will include a chapter on operational monitoring
ET-OOFS will review and include metrics into the guide that satisfy:Demonstrated value of the informationEfficient to compute and storeSimple to implement: i.e., Portable software available
ET-OOFS will navigate the guide through the approval process within JCOMM and stakeholders
ET-OOFS is proposing that both TT-OSE and TT-Intercomparisons be endorsed as joint TT’s with two of the proposed tasks:
Recommend new operational metrics satisfying the criterionReview existing operational metrics
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SPA - Statement of Guidance
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http://www.jcomm.info/ocg3
Observations Programme Area Coordination Group
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Sea level anomaly is more critical to OOFS than climate, JCOMM SPA role
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OCG-IIIParis, 9-11 March 2009
Critical review for non-climate requirements
Etienne CharpentierObserving Systems Division, WMO Secretariat
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The RRR – Rolling Review of Requirements
• WMO/CEOS Database– Requirements (“technology free”)– Performances of instruments
• Critical review– Critical Review Charts– Analysed by Experts to produce gap analysis and
Statement of Guidance (SoG)• SoGs reviewed by ET-EGOS• Feeds into the ET-EGOS Implementation plan,
and vision of the GOS
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The RRR process
CREATE AND
UPDATE
CREATE AND
UPDATE
CRITICALREVIEW
GENERATE STATEMENT OF GUIDANCE
for each application area
Statement of Guidance
Observing system
capabilities database
User requirements
database
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Global NWP Requirements (example)
Horizontal Resolution Vertical Resolution Observing Cycle Delay of Availability Accuracy
Requirement Appl. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr. Goal Opt. Thr.
Wind vector over sea surface
Glob.NWP
15 km
100 km
250 km
1h 6h 12h 0.1h 0.5h 6h0.5 m/s
2m/s
3 m/s
Air pressure over sea surface
Glob. NWP
15 km
100 km
500 km
1h 6h 12h 0.1h 0.5h 6h0.5 hPa
0.99 hPa
1 hPa
SSTGlob. NWP
5km15 km
250 km
3h 24h120
h3h 24h
120h
0.3K 0.5K 1K
T profile (lower
troposphere)
Glob. NWP
15Km
100 km
500 km
0.3 km
1 km
3 km
1h 6h 24h 0.1h 0.5h 6h 0.5K 1K 3K
T profile (higher
troposphere)
Glob. NWP
15 km
100 km
500 km
0.3 km
1 km
3 km
1h 6h 24h 0.1h 0.5h 6h 0.5K 1K 3K
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NWP surface fluxes, model error growth
Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation
Initialisation, Observation timeliness,
Ocean predictability limits
Operational performance – in practice
Optimum performance curve
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Improving performance: Competition of resources
First and second generation OOFS systems are to be expected not optimal
How do we argue/diagnose the right GOOS for OOFS?
(a)Resource pressures for continuous system improvements R&D and agency operational super-computing infrastructure
(Higher resolutions, 1-2km, ensembles, 4DVar, coupled physical and coupled BGC modelling)
(b)Resource pressures to design, deploy and maintain ocean observing systems and R&D for new technologies.
The end-user just wants a skilful robust service.
All agencies aspire toward maximum impact.
GOOS/OOFS partnership and a total cost/benefit model is critical to get the right balance for the agencies and governments
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Performance target
Observational requirements is an operations research/optimisation problem
Achieving performance at lowest cost
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A vision of justifying the OOS requirements – Cost vs Benefit
Per
form
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Benefit
Per
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Observational requirements
Observational requirements
Cos
t
Cos
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Benefit
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Other competing costs
Per
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Benefit
Per
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Observational requirements
Observational requirements
Cos
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Cos
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Benefit
Co
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Performance
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Per
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Benefit
Per
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Observational requirements
Observational requirements
Cos
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Cos
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Benefit
Co
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Performance
SPA/ET-OOFS + GOV + Agencies
SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies + User groups
OPA+GSSC+Manufacturers+Operators
Who can help with these problems ?
SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies
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Real-
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- Endorse TT-OSE as a joint TT
- Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend optimisations
- Prepare recommendations for the operational monitoring in “The guide”
- Contribute to the next RRR process for the “Statement of Guidance” for OOFS
- Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on what the TT-OSE could deliver to this process.