Real-Time Estimation of Volcanic Ash/SO2 Cloud Height from Combined UV/IR Satellite Observations and...
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Transcript of Real-Time Estimation of Volcanic Ash/SO2 Cloud Height from Combined UV/IR Satellite Observations and...
Real-Time Estimation of Volcanic Ash/SO2 Cloud Height from Combined
UV/IR Satellite Observations and Numerical Modeling
Gilberto A. VicenteNOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)
Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution (OSDPD)
CICS Science Team MeetingSeptember 8th 2010 College Park, MD
Eric HughesUniversity of Maryland - College Park
Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS)
Wilfrid Schroeder University of Maryland - College Park
Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS)
Source1: How volcano chaos unfolded: in graphics, BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8634944.stm)
Volcanic emissions damage aircraft
British Airways Flight 9 - (1982)Experienced full engine failure mid-flight (flame-out of all four engines)
Ash
Ash melts and forms glassy coating
Clogs Jets fuel and cooling systems
Source1
Source1
The effects on volcanic ash on airplanes:
Several reports of Airplane-Ash interactions occurred in the 1980’s and early 1990’s. The results of such interactions were: severe damage to airplanes and often mid-flight engine failure.
Volcanic EruptionsHazards to Aviation
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control. I trust you are not in too much distress.” - Cpt. Eric Moody
In the 1990’s, a global network of 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) were established.
The Role of the VAACs
Monitoring and tracking volcanic ash in their areas of attention.
Coordinate the Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO’s), Volcano Observatories, and Area Control Centers/Flight Information Centers (ACC/FIC) for the prompt notification and distribution of volcanic ash information and warnings.
Still high demand for more accurate monitoring/forecasting techniques. Uncertainties in monitoring/forecasting lead to the closure of large air spaces.
$1.7 Billion: Estimated airspace closure cost from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption2
Source2: IATA
Map of global VAAC coverage
Monitoring/forecasting improvements have lead to few hazardous Airplane/Ash interactions since the early 1990’s.
Ash forecasts from the London VAAC The ash height was understood to be between 2km – 11km
[ April 15th 06:00 UTC ]
Satellite Observations
Dispersion Models
Reports:
IR: AIRS, AVHRRUV: OMI, GOME-2Vis: GOES, MODIS (multi)Vis/IR: MSG(SEVERI)
PUFFHySPLITNAMESFlex-Part
SIGMETs Airlines News Volcanologists (Observatories, USGS, Smithsonian) Volcano Cameras etc …
VAAC ResourcesProducing Ash Forecasts
UV Sensors - Polar
OM
I
SO2
IR – Polar/Geo
April 15th 13:30 UTC
Measurement Technique Measurement Technique 320- 380 nm difference from Rayleigh spectrum
Advantages
Effective over land or sea
No water cloud interference
Disadvantages Day time only
Smoke and dust have same signature
Longer latency time
Advantages Day and Night Times Operational Satellites Geo: High spatial/temporal res.
Disadvantages Misses detections due to water vapor interference and cold clouds – false alarms Geo: Poor observations at high latitudes
10 – 12 m BTD - Split Window
April 15th 12:00 UTC
MODIS (Terra)
April 15th 11:35 UTC
AIR
SAI (Ash) Ash
Ackn
ow
led
gm
en
ts to
Arlin
Kru
eg
er
April 16th 16:00 UTC
MSG RGB
VIS/IR – Polar/Geo
VAAC ResourcesSatellite Observations
Ash Forecasts (Washington VAAC)Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HySPLIT)Simulations for 4 altitude regions and 6 and 12 hour forecast
PUFF (Alaska - VAAC)
NAMES (London - VAAC)
FLEX-PART (NILU)
HySPLIT (Washington, DC - VAAC)
Simulate the dispersion and transport of volcanic ash into the atmosphere using meteorological forecast data
Approaches: Lagrangian, Eulerian or both
VAAC ResourcesDispersion Models
Using Models and Satellite Observations to Forecast Ash Transport
Even with current capabilities, there are several unknown “variables” in ash forecasting:
• Ash density (size distribution)• Ash height• Start and stop eruption times
An understanding of the ash height and concentration are the most important variables needed in airline rerouting.
These VAAC resources are typically used as follows: Reports: Find information about eruptions time/duration and
injection altitude (when available)Satellites: Locate and track ash plumes Models: Forecast ash transport
Volcano MonitoringCreate a platform that allows users to view near real-time volcanic data products.
Volcanic Cloud Height EstimationConstruct a system which compares near real-time data with model simulation data.
Project Overview
Our Approach Run various dispersion model simulations and see which initial height conditions reconstruct satellite observations.
Volcano Monitoring
Volcanic Cloud Height Estimation
Retrieve satellite data*
SO2/AI Retrieval*
Place SO2/AI maps and data files on our web server
These project parts were developed independently, but work together as a set of tools for users.
Model Initialization
Run model simulations
Post-Processing
Compare to satellite observations
Users
* Pro
cesse
d a
t NA
SA
GS
FC
Project Overview
Volcano Monitoring The NOAA/NESDIS OMISO2 product delivery and visualization user interface
http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/
Global compositesGlobal composites
Volcano sectorsVolcano sectors
Satellite orbitSatellite orbit
Digital imagesDigital images
SO2 Cloud (Reflectivity) AI
Volcanic Sector ImageryVolcano Monitoring
Input data Gridded data
Compare overlap
AIRS (Ash)
PUFF (2km Simulation) Overlapping region:
Estimating Cloud Heights: Implementation
Compare the results from the various simulations to satellite observations.
Run the dispersion model (PUFF) using various initial height conditions
Bas
ic C
on
cep
tVolcanic Cloud Height Estimation
Statistical comparison:
A = Number of Coincident Satellite and Model points
B = Number of Satellite points NOT coincident with model data
C = Number of Model points NOT coincident with satellite data
Compute two statistic variables:
Probability of Detection (PoD): PoD = A / (A+B)
False Alarm Rate (FAR): FAR = C / (A+C)
Probability of Detection
Sim
ula
tio
n H
eig
ht
(km
)
Currently algorithm uses only PoD
Model-Satellite Comparisons
Volcanic Cloud Height Estimation
Volcanic Cloud Height Estimation:Online Model
OMI-AI
April 15th 12:00 UTC
Input Data
PUFF Simulation
OMI AI
All profiles show two distinct peaks in height: 8-10 km and 5-4 km.All profiles show two distinct peaks in height: 8-10 km and 5-4 km.
OMI – AI/SO2 AIRS-Ash
The Eyjafjallajokull eruption Analysis Summary
Observations from April 15th 2010
8 km
2 km
OMI-AI
Vertical profile Visual AnalysisApril 15th 12:00 UTC
The statistical and visual analysis do not match exactly
The statistics predicts the 10km and 4km simulations heights
A visual analysis suggests the 8-7km and 2-3km heights
False Alarm Rate (FAR) analysis should improve the statistics
The Eyjafjallajokull eruption Limitations
Description of an automated system to compare dispersion model outputs with Near-Real-Time (NRT) satellite observations of volcanic emission
Generate a series of maps overlaying various model simulations atop of satellite observations
Perform a statistical analysis on the simulation/satellite data to determine which simulation injection heights
produce the best match to satellite observations
Perform these tasks quickly, requiring little input from the analyst
Summary and Conclusions
Compare the model simulations with volcanic ash products from other satellites/sensors: GOES, MSG (SEVERI) AVHRR, MetOp-A (IASI), MODIS, etc.
Generate automated volcanic ash height forecast based on the statistical analysis of the simulation/satellite data.
Future plans
Arlin Krueger, Simon Carn, and Keith Evans: JCET/UMBC
George Serafino: NOAA/NESDIS
Nick Krotkov and Kai Yang; GEST/UMBC
Jerry Guo: Perot Systems Government Services
Pieternel Levelt: KNMI
Acknowledgements
USER/WEB SERVER DATA SERVER MODEL SERVER
Submit request(User)
Check to see if a request has been
submitted
…
Retrieve the request,then submit the request
to PUFFRun the PUFF
simulations and perform the
height analysis.Generate output images w/ IDL
Retrieve output images and data files. Submit
them to the USER SERVER (web)
Display the results
Firewall
… show the status of the analysis …
Online model setup
MISR Team, JPL and GSFC
MISR Stereo-Derived Ash Plume HeightsPlume HeightsApril 14th, 2010
MISR derived heights:The leading part of the ash cloud is around 7.3 km and the trailing part around 2.3 km
Visual analysis: Closely agrees with the MISR derived heights
Statistical analysis: Higher than the MISR derived heights, but agrees the VAAC reports (cited the max height ~11km)
Comparison with other height measurements
The Eyjafjallajokull eruption