REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion...

REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion________________________________________________________________________________

REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion

FP7, Theme [ENV.2011.1.3.1-1], Sept 2011 – Nov 2014

WP5 Vulnerability functions for industrial facilities and equipments


Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Industrial Facilities

Mário LopesInstituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal António BritoEstrutconsult,Lisbon, Portugal Carlos Sousa Oliveira Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal F. Mota de SáInstituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal


Sines industrial complex- 13 km2

- Houses a significant number of National (Portuguese) and European Critical Infrastructures. Located next to the Atlantic Coast

- 180 km away from several major seismogenic sources: (the Gorringe Bank and the Marquês de Pombal Fault) both able to raise a 8.5 to 9 magnitude earthquake, leading to Peak Ground Accelerations of about 0.20 g to 0.24 g in stiff rock soils, with the possibility of 0.4 g to 0.5 g in soft soils.

- 90km away from the Lower Tagus Valley faults, able to generate magnitude 7 events


Sines

Seismic and Tsunamigenic Zones of concern

Tagus River Valley (Fault complex) (90 km from Sines)

Interaction of the African and Euroasiatic plates. (150 km from Sines)


Natural gas terminal with container and coal terminal behind


Floatation of containers due to tsunami


Container terminal and coal terminal


Oil tanker at oil and petro-cheminal terminals


Refinery


Petrochemical facility


Power plant


Evaluation of seismic vulnerability

- Meetings with stakeholders and inspection of the facilities

- Code base evaluation (related to date of design and construction)

- Detailed evaluation of the potential seismic performance of selected equipments


Seismic action: accelerograms (nonlinear dynamic analysis) or response spectra (for pushover analysis and N2 method)

2 types:

- Near-field events (moderate magnitude, small epicentral distance, rich in high frequencies)

- Far-field event (large magnitude, large epicentral distance, rich in low frequencies)


Standard REAKT accelerograms used in WP5 – representative of near-field events TC = 0,3s


Sines


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

S a[m

s-2]

T [s]

Record Set MeanIndividual Records

Second set of accelerograms representative of far-field events: semi natural, semi artificial, TC = 0,6s


IA

[ms-1]

Earthquake Name Date

ePGV

ePGA

eSa T=0.10s

eSa T=0.50s

eSa T=1.00s

eSa T=2.00s

0.610

13.623SD [s]

SI [m]

e IA

e SD

e SI

ID ID IDWaveform Earthquake Station

MW Fault Repi EC8 Vs,30

49 34 ST14 Friuli 06-05-1976

6.5 thrust 42 BMechanism [km] Site class [ms-1]

1.674

PGV [ms-1]

PGA [ms-2]

Sa T=0.10s [ms-2]

Sa T=0.50s [ms-2]

Sa T=1.00s [ms-2]

Sa T=2.00s [ms-2]

0.306

2.865

5.562

5.801

3.790

-3-2-101234

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

acce

lera

tion

[ms-2

]

t [s]

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

velo

city

[ms-1

]

t [s]

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

0.10 1.00 10.00

log 1

0S a

[ms-2

]

T [s]0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

I A/I

A,m

ax

t [s]


Selected equipments

Power transformers – exist in all large facilities and are indispensable

Refinery chimney – indispensable to the operation of the refinery. Its a very specific type of structure.

Reinforced concrete frames that support sulphur storage cylinders – representative of recent RC structures


Kocaeli earthquake, Turkey, August 1999, Seka paper factory


Kocaeli earthquake, Turkey, August 1999, factory EnerjiSA


Damage – dominant mode: horizontal movement relatively to adjacent equipments or rotation damage in bushings

Compare displacement due to the earthquake with slack of connections to other equipments

Calculation of displacements- transformers modelled as rigid bodies (only friction opposes the displacements) one degree of freedom systems

Numerical solution of the dynamic equation of movement

Ma+Cv+kd=-Mas Ma-Fa=-Mas


Flexible connections


Stiff connections


Knowing the average friction coefficient at the base, which

depends on the number of wheels with stoppers and of the

coefficient of friction between the wheels and the base, it is

possible to evaluate the median of a vulnerability function,

which corresponds to a probability of 50% of the horizontal

displacement of the transformer being above a maximum

value, associated with damage leading to disruption of power

supply

Time dependency (foreshocks and aftershocks) state

dependency


0.0000

0.0500

0.1000

0.1500

0.2000

0.2500

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00

Max

imum

rela

tive

disp

lace

men

t[m

]

aG [ms-2]

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Near-field event - md=0.4me


0.0000

0.0500

0.1000

0.1500

0.2000

0.2500

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00

Max

imum

rela

tive

disp

lace

men

t[m]

aG [ms-2]

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Near-field event - md=0.7me


0.0000

0.0500

0.1000

0.1500

0.2000

0.2500

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00

Max

imum

rela

tive

disp

lace

men

t [m

]

aG [ms-2]

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Far-field event - md=0.4me


0.0000

0.0500

0.1000

0.1500

0.2000

0.2500

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00

Max

imum

rela

tive

disp

acem

ent

[m]

aG [ms-2]

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Far-field event - md=0.7me


Refinery chimney


DExt

Thickconcrete

As,Ext

As,Int

Thickbricks

234m tall

Base - D =18m Thick = 0,65m

Top - D = 6,4m Thick = 0,20m


Modes 1 and 2 Modes 3 e 4 Modes 5 e 6 Mode 7 Mode 8 (vertical) [T=3.73s] [T=1.03s] [T=0.46s] [T=0.25s] [T=0.20s]

Linear dynamic analysis


Chimney deformed shapes – predominance of higher modes

t=17.24s t=19.36s t=27.30s(Accelerogram: NF-6501x; PGA=12.0 ms-2)


Maximum strains at each section along the height – 40m long

plastic hinge centered at 180m (original design, at late 1970´s did

not applied Capacity Design)


Estado de degradação

Critério

I Sem danos

es <

0.7 esy

II Ligeiramente danificado

0.7 esy

< es <

esy

III Moderadamente danificado

esy < es

< esy +

0.25 ( esu -

esu )

IV Severamente danificado

esy +

0.25 ( esu -

esy ) <

es < esu

V Rotura es > esu

ou ec

> ecu

Consideraram-se os estados de degradação indicados no quadro seguinte.NOTA: esy=412 MPa / 200GPa = 2.06‰; esu = 75‰; ecu = 4 ‰;

Estado de degradação Critério

INo damage es < 0.7 esy

IISlight damage 0.7 esy < es < esy

IIIModerate damage esy < es < esy + 0.25 ( esu - esu )

IVSevere damage esy + 0.25 ( esu - esy ) < es <

esu

VColappse es > esu ou ec > ecu

Note: esy=412 MPa / 200GPa = 2.06‰; esu = 75‰; ecu = 4 ‰;


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Freq

uenc

e

PGA [ms-2]

I - II II - III

III - IV IV - V

I - II II - III

III - IV IV - V

Far-field event GALP - Chimney


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Freq

uenc

e

PGA [ms-2]

I - II II - III

III - IV IV - V

I - II II - III

IV - V

Near-field event GALP - Chimney


F

t

Time dependency (ageing effects)


Sulphur storage cylinders and support structure


Single degree of freedom system in two orthogonal

directions

Pushover analyses and N2 method

Performance points for different damage states represent

median values of fragility functions

Fragility functions can be drawn if variability is known


Thank you for your attention

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