Reactivity Scales via 3-D Photochemical Modeling · PDF fileReactivity Scales via 3-D...
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Reactivity Scales via 3-DPhotochemical Modeling
Robert Harley
Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of California at Berkeley
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Acknowledgments
• Phil Martien (UC Berkeley)
• Jana Milford (CU Boulder)
• Amir Hakami & Ted Russell (GA Tech)
• California Air Resources Board
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Introduction
• California considers mass and reactivity ofVOC in regulating some sources
• Relies on concept of maximum incrementalreactivity (“MIR”), based on work of Carterwith 0-D box model
• 3-D grid-based models provide more realisticrepresentation of atmosphere
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12
MethaneEthane
n-Butane224-TMP
ethenepropeneisoprenebenzene
toluenem-xylene124-TMB
HCHOCCHO
MEKacetylene
ethanolMTBE
Reactivi ty (g O3 / g VOC)
MIR
MOIR
Incremental Reactivity Scales (Carter, 2000)
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Objectives
• Use 3-D air quality models with onlinesensitivity analysis to assess reactivityof individual VOC
• Compare results from 3-D models toCarter’s MIR scale
• Conduct formal uncertainty analysis
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Approach
• SAPRC-99 mechanism with 30 individualVOC represented explicit ly
• DDM-3D (Yang et al., 1997) used to calculatesensitivity of ozone to emissions of VOC
• Monte Carlo analysis to propagate inputuncertainties through modeling system
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Model Application
• South Coast Air Basin
– 24-25 June 1987 (SCAQS)
• Central California
– 2-6 August 1990 (SJVAQS/AUSPEX)
• Use previously defined model inputs formeteorology and emissions
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Calculating Reactivity
• Sensitivity Coefficient from DDM-3D:
• Absolute Incremental Reactivity:
[ ] [ ]j
33* OO
EEs j
jij ∂
∂=
∂∂
=ε
jj
ijj MWE
sAIR
*
=
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Relative Reactivity
• AIR from 3-D model varies by location
– Coastal/mid-basin sites not affectedby increases in downwind emissions
• Define relative incremental reactivity:
∑=
kkk
jj AIRw
AIRRIR
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Reactivity Rankings
• Sort compounds from highest to lowestbased on Carter MIR
• Plot RIR from 3-D modeling for eachcompound
• Expect RIR to decrease monotonically
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Uncertainty Analysis
• Treat 33 input parameters as uncertain:
– Chemical rate coefficients
– Oxidation product yields
– Emissions of CO, VOC & NOx
– Deposition velocities for O3 and NO2
• Use trajectory model and MonteCarlo/LHS to get output uncertainties
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Absolute Incremental Reactivities
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
CO x 10
ETOH
HCHOM
EKN-C
4
PRPE22
4P
XYLMBASE
Anaheim Azusa Claremont Riverside
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Central California
• Used different 3-D model (MAQSIP)
• Considered many reactivity metrics:
– 1 hr vs. 8 hr ozone
– MIR vs. MOIR conditions
– Population exposure
• Long modeling period (2-6 Aug 1990)for larger region incl. Bay Area & SJV
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0 2 4 6 8 10
2-me-2-Butene1,3-Butadiene
PropeneIsoprene
m-XyleneEthene
FormaldehydePropionaldehyde
Lumped OLE11,2,4-TMB
Acetaldehydea-Pinenep-XyleneToluene
me-CyclopentaneEthanol
relative reactivity
Exposure
MOIR-3D-8h
MIR-3D-8h
MOIR-3D
MIR-3D
Comparison of 3-D Metrics
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Comparison of 3-D Metrics
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Isopentane
n-PentaneMEK
2,2,4-tm-
n-ButaneAcetylene
n-Butyl Acetate
BenzeneMTBE
Methanol
IsopropanolAcetone
Ethane
C OMethane
Benzaldehyde
relative reactivity
Exposure
MOIR-3D-8h
MIR-3D-8h
MOIR-3D
MIR-3D
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Summary
• Reactivity more robust on relative ratherthan absolute basis
– less site-to-site variability
– typical RIR uncertainty 20-35%
• Reactivity metrics derived from 3-Dmodeling similar to Carter MIR scale
• Spatial distribution of emissions can beimportant (lg. point sources, biogenics)
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Summary (continued)
• HOx radical initiators (esp. C4-C5
alkenes and HCHO) have variable RIR
• Acetaldehyde shows negative reactivityat upwind boundaries because PANformation competes with NO 2 photolysis
• RIR increases downwind for some low-reactivity compounds