rd The Kaufman Reportkaufmanreport.com/The Reports/The Kaufman Report... · Monday December 28,...
14
The Kaufman Report Trade what you see, not what you think. Monday December 28, 2009 Closing prices of December 24, 2009 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES I, Wayne S. Kaufman, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER THIS REPORT AS ONLY A SINGLE FACTOR IN MAKING THEIR INVESTMENT DECISION. THIS INFORMATIONAL REPORT IS NOT AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE SUCH AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION WOULD BE ILLEGAL. THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED AS A MATTER OF GENERAL INFORMATION. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF ANY SECURITY OR COMPANY MENTIONED, AND IS NOT AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. ALL FACTS AND STATISTICS ARE FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THESE SECURITIES AND COMPANIES IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST. SECURITIES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OR STRATEGIES MENTIONED HEREIN MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT YOUR PARTICULAR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL SITUATIONS OR STRATEGIES. BEFORE ACTING ON THE MATERIALS HEREIN, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES AND, IF NECESSARY SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK AND AN INVESTOR MAY INCUR EITHER PROFITS OR LOSSES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. TRADING AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE READER. John Thomas Financial 14 Wall Street, 23 rd Floor New York, New York 10005 [email protected] www.kaufmanreport.com Wayne S. Kaufman, CMT Chief Market Analyst (800) 257-1537 Toll Free (212) 299-7838 Direct Last Sunday (12/20) we said “we remain hopeful that shortly stocks will begin an end of the year rally.” That rally actually began Friday December 18 th and it continued through last week with the S&P 500 breaking out of its recent tight trading range and major U.S. indexes recording 52-week highs. We also said “recent call buying shows an expectation of a Santa Claus rally” and that while the call buying was not yet extreme it was a concern. That call buying continued during the week with the put/call ratio hitting very low numbers Monday and Tuesday and its 5-day moving average hitting 0.75 on Friday, the lowest since 0.765 on October 16 th , which was just before a short-term top. The Kaufman Options indicator is at 1.05, not yet an extreme but showing too much optimism, so the options picture makes us cautious. Another reason for caution is valuations based on spreads between equity and bond yields, which have narrowed dramatically. The spread based on aggregate earnings from continuing operations of the S&P 1500 and the 10-year bond yield is 14.75%, the lowest since 14.72% on July 23, 2007. That was just above the 10.61% of July 13, 2007, which marked a very important short-term top. The good news is sellers are still not aggressive and seasonality is positive. Companies announcing guidance have been overwhelmingly positive. In summary, we continue to follow the primary trend of the market, which remains up. However, we expect a pull back to occur sometime in the near-term and continuing our tradition of occasionally stating the obvious, disappointments in the upcoming earnings season will be met harshly. The recent strength in the Dollar has not hurt equities as the recent amazing inverse correlation between stocks and the U.S. Dollar Index has ended, at least for the time being. It has highlighted sector rotation taking place. Investors need to be cognizant of sector rotation at this time . Dollar strength has hurt the ADR Index, which is the worst performing major index in December. We are happy to see the rebound in small and mid-caps, which are the best performing major indexes for December. We said four weeks ago we were hoping to see the January Effect and a Santa Claus Rally, and strength in small-caps says investors are showing more willingness to take risk, which is something a healthy market needs. Therefore, with volume low and news able to create sharp moves in either direction, this remains a bifurcated short-term trader’s market. We repeat our advice of the last couple of months that positions investors don’t have a good reason to hold onto should be considered as a source of funds. Based on the S&P 500 the short-term, intermediate-term and long-term trends are up. Traders should not hesitate to rotate out of lagging sectors and stocks and into leaders. S&P 1500 Data: Percent over 10-sma: 86.87%. Percent over 50-sma: 81.20% 13-Week Closing Highs: 367. 13-Week Closing Lows: 2. 52-week closing highs: 286. Kaufman Options Indicator: 1.05 Put/Call Ratio: 0.74. New High Reversals: 26. New Low Reversals: 0 Volume: -62% versus yesterday. 27% of the 10-day average. 28% of the 30-day average. Up Stocks: 77.08%. Up Volume: 86.28%. Up Points: 83.01%. Up Dollars: 96.54%, 97% of 10-sma. Dn Dollars 10% of 10-sma.
Transcript of rd The Kaufman Reportkaufmanreport.com/The Reports/The Kaufman Report... · Monday December 28,...
The Kaufman Report Trade what you see, not what you think.
Monday December 28, 2009 Closing prices of December 24, 2009
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES I, Wayne S. Kaufman, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER THIS REPORT AS ONLY A SINGLE FACTOR IN MAKING THEIR INVESTMENT DECISION. THIS INFORMATIONAL REPORT IS NOT AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE SUCH AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION WOULD BE ILLEGAL. THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED AS A MATTER OF GENERAL INFORMATION. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF ANY SECURITY OR COMPANY MENTIONED, AND IS NOT AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. ALL FACTS AND STATISTICS ARE FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THESE SECURITIES AND COMPANIES IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST. SECURITIES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OR STRATEGIES MENTIONED HEREIN MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT YOUR PARTICULAR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL SITUATIONS OR STRATEGIES. BEFORE ACTING ON THE MATERIALS HEREIN, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES AND, IF NECESSARY SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK AND AN INVESTOR MAY INCUR EITHER PROFITS OR LOSSES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. TRADING AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE READER.
John Thomas Financial 14 Wall Street, 23rd Floor New York, New York 10005 [email protected] www.kaufmanreport.com
Wayne S. Kaufman, CMT Chief Market Analyst (800) 257-1537 Toll Free (212) 299-7838 Direct
Last Sunday (12/20) we said “we remain hopeful that shortly stocks will begin an end of the year rally.” That rally actually began Friday December 18th and it continued through last week with the S&P 500 breaking out of its recent tight trading range and major U.S. indexes recording 52-week highs.
We also said “recent call buying shows an expectation of a Santa Claus rally” and that while the call buying was not yet extreme it was a concern. That call buying continued during the week with the put/call ratio hitting very low numbers Monday and Tuesday and its 5-day moving average hitting 0.75 on Friday, the lowest since 0.765 on October 16th, which was just before a short-term top. The Kaufman Options indicator is at 1.05, not yet an extreme but showing too much optimism, so the options picture makes us cautious.
Another reason for caution is valuations based on spreads between equity and bond yields, which have narrowed dramatically. The spread based on aggregate earnings from continuing operations of the S&P 1500 and the 10-year bond yield is 14.75%, the lowest since 14.72% on July 23, 2007. That was just above the 10.61% of July 13, 2007, which marked a very important short-term top.
The good news is sellers are still not aggressive and seasonality is positive. Companies announcing guidance have been overwhelmingly positive. In summary, we continue to follow the primary trend of the market, which remains up. However, we expect a pull back to occur sometime in the near-term and continuing our tradition of occasionally stating the obvious, disappointments in the upcoming earnings season will be met harshly.
The recent strength in the Dollar has not hurt equities as the recent amazing inverse correlation between stocks and the U.S. Dollar Index has ended, at least for the time being. It has highlighted sector rotation taking place. Investors need to be cognizant of sector rotation at this time. Dollar strength has hurt the ADR Index, which is the worst performing major index in December. We are happy to see the rebound in small and mid-caps, which are the best performing major indexes for December. We said four weeks ago we were hoping to see the January Effect and a Santa Claus Rally, and strength in small-caps says investors are showing more willingness to take risk, which is something a healthy market needs.
Therefore, with volume low and news able to create sharp moves in either direction, this remains a bifurcated short-term trader’s market. We repeat our advice of the last couple of months that positions investors don’t have a good reason to hold onto should be considered as a source of funds. Based on the S&P 500 the short-term, intermediate-term and long-term trends are up. Traders should not hesitate to rotate out of lagging sectors and stocks and into leaders.
S&P 1500 Data: Percent over 10-sma: 86.87%. Percent over 50-sma: 81.20% 13-Week Closing Highs: 367. 13-Week Closing Lows: 2. 52-week closing highs: 286. Kaufman Options Indicator: 1.05 Put/Call Ratio: 0.74. New High Reversals: 26. New Low Reversals: 0 Volume: -62% versus yesterday. 27% of the 10-day average. 28% of the 30-day average. Up Stocks: 77.08%. Up Volume: 86.28%. Up Points: 83.01%. Up Dollars: 96.54%, 97% of 10-sma. Dn Dollars 10% of 10-sma.
Daily WTD MTD QTD YTD
Nasdaq 100 0.96% 5.15% 5.79% 8.78% 54.32%
Nasdaq Composite 0.71% 4.85% 6.58% 7.69% 44.94%
Bank of New York Mellon ADR 0.69% 2.88% 1.02% 3.47% 32.91%
S&P 500 0.53% 2.77% 2.82% 6.57% 24.71%
NYSE Composite 0.52% 2.71% 2.29% 4.98% 26.02%
S&P 1500 0.52% 2.95% 3.47% 6.59% 25.69%
S&P Smallcap 600 0.52% 5.11% 10.04% 6.29% 25.56%
Dow Jones Industrials 0.51% 2.06% 1.69% 8.32% 19.87%
S&P Midcap 400 0.51% 4.00% 8.02% 7.05% 37.42%
Daily WTD MTD QTD YTD
Information Technology 1.01% 4.89% 6.14% 11.03% 60.76%
Financials 0.86% 3.72% ‐0.63% ‐2.69% 15.98%
Materials 0.78% 4.27% 2.53% 8.08% 46.83%
Utilities 0.70% 1.00% 6.73% 7.61% 8.34%
Energy 0.48% 2.78% 0.22% 6.33% 12.64%
Industrials 0.42% 1.07% 2.66% 6.37% 19.06%
Telecom Services 0.37% 2.68% 5.14% 6.43% 3.18%
Consumer Staples 0.30% 1.33% 0.32% 5.25% 12.30%
Consumer Discretionary 0.11% 2.48% 5.61% 9.92% 40.46%
Health Care ‐0.04% 1.61% 2.97% 9.66% 18.29%
Daily WTD MTD QTD YTD
Real Estate 1.54% 6.35% 9.98% 13.92% 25.24%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 1.32% 4.91% 5.33% 8.49% 65.33%
Semiconductors & Equipment 1.22% 5.82% 9.78% 7.70% 54.75%
Banks 1.09% 3.64% ‐3.24% ‐1.90% ‐7.88%
Materials 0.78% 4.27% 2.53% 8.08% 46.83%
Diversified Financials 0.75% 3.53% ‐1.97% ‐5.53% 29.20%
Utilities 0.70% 1.00% 6.73% 7.61% 8.34%
Insurance 0.60% 3.20% 1.84% ‐1.74% 12.71%
Software & Services 0.57% 4.58% 5.96% 15.53% 57.36%
Capital Goods 0.50% 0.92% 2.38% 5.08% 19.26%
Energy 0.48% 2.78% 0.22% 6.33% 12.64%
Automobiles & Components 0.47% 5.14% 7.07% 22.20% 118.57%
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 0.46% 1.63% 1.84% 5.66% 18.73%
Telecom Services 0.37% 2.68% 5.14% 6.43% 3.18%
Food & Staples Retailing 0.36% 2.12% ‐0.83% 3.23% 6.31%
Media 0.26% 1.32% 9.36% 10.82% 36.30%
Commercial & Professional Services 0.19% 1.80% 3.61% 4.89% 10.86%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 0.17% 3.72% 4.98% 5.17% 34.87%
Transportation 0.16% 1.39% 3.39% 11.72% 21.35%
Consumer Services 0.14% 2.43% 2.94% 6.02% 20.51%
Pharmaceuticals, Biotech & Life Sciences 0.01% 1.50% 1.81% 7.79% 12.03%
Household & Personal Products ‐0.08% ‐0.01% ‐1.62% 6.46% 6.59%
Retailing ‐0.10% 2.66% 3.82% 10.61% 49.52%
Health Care Equip & Services ‐0.14% 1.83% 5.40% 13.50% 33.39%
INTERNATIONAL ETFs
Daily WTD MTD QTD YTD
Vietnam VNM 2.04% 9.18% 0.66% ‐11.24%
Australia EWA 2.04% 0.62% ‐3.43% ‐0.31% 60.81%
South Korea EWY 1.61% 3.16% 6.51% ‐0.23% 69.00%
China 25 FXI 1.48% 1.49% ‐3.02% 3.57% 45.69%
Brazil EWZ 1.46% 0.33% ‐3.50% 9.09% 110.89%
Taiwan EWT 1.12% 2.51% 3.27% 2.52% 66.40%
Latin America ILF 1.07% 1.35% ‐0.96% 10.49% 86.14%
MSCI Emerging Markets EEM 1.01% 2.35% 1.68% 5.89% 65.00%
Malaysia EWM 0.76% ‐0.56% ‐2.21% 4.73% 45.68%
Japan EWJ 0.71% 0.41% 3.87% ‐0.10% 3.65%
Germany EWG 0.66% 3.11% 0.93% 2.34% 18.16%
Hong Kong EWH 0.58% ‐0.45% ‐1.83% 0.32% 50.14%
Italy EWI 0.56% 2.08% ‐0.41% ‐3.67% 19.95%
Spain EWP 0.56% 1.09% ‐4.54% ‐2.40% 29.08%
Mexico EWW 0.54% 1.43% 5.16% 15.34% 56.12%
United Kingdom EWU 0.50% 1.18% ‐0.37% 4.51% 32.33%
Canada EWC 0.42% 3.07% 1.81% 3.53% 51.35%
Singapore EWS 0.35% ‐1.13% ‐0.09% 5.58% 60.99%
Switzerland EWL 0.31% 2.97% 1.58% 3.31% 21.04%
Austria EWO 0.26% ‐2.01% ‐7.72% ‐10.67% 50.54%
France EWQ 0.19% 2.00% 0.62% 0.19% 24.32%
Belgium EWK 0.10% 0.31% ‐2.43% ‐0.92% 47.42%
Sweden EWD 0.04% 2.86% ‐2.06% 2.42% 52.51%
Netherlands EWN ‐0.05% 1.58% 2.03% 2.79% 38.07%
BRIC EEB ‐0.26% 0.82% ‐1.43% 8.12% 82.29%
Created in MetaStock from Equis International
The Kaufman Report - Wayne S. Kaufman, CMT
The Kaufman Report 12/25/2009 John Thomas Financial
13 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 25 30 1D
2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24
0
MACD (1.49112)
50
100Stochastic Oscillator (43.1927)20
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Relative Strength Index (61.7832)
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S&P 500 Cash (1,120.48, 1,120.60, 1,120.48, 1,120.59, +0.13)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The S&P 500 has broken out of the tight range it has been trading in.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The 30-minute momentum indicators are showing negative divergences.
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ruary March April May June July August September November
-40
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-20
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0
10
20MACD (7.17143)
0102030405060708090
100Stochastic Oscillator (96.2626)2530354045505560657075
Relative Strength Index (62.5555)
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S&P 500 Cash (1,121.08, 1,126.48, 1,121.08, 1,126.48, +5.89)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
In breaking out of its recent tight trading range the S&P 500 moved above moved past 1121, the 50% retracement of the entire bear market.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The stochastic is in the overbought zone while the other momentum indicators can still move higher.
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J A S O N D 2008 M A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2
-100
-50
0
MACD (39.3602)
102030405060708090
100Stochastic Oscillator (76.4866)
152025303540455055606570Relative Strength Index (66.8421)
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S&P 500 Cash (1,105.31, 1,126.48, 1,105.31, 1,126.48, +24.01)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows it is trading at its highest level since early October 2009.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Momentum indicators are not yet overbought.
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April May June July August September October November December
0
10
20
30
40MACD (20.1056)
50
100Stochastic Oscillator (98.8314)
4045505560657075Relative Strength Index (69.1210)
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NASDAQ 100 (1,856.06, 1,869.90, 1,855.78, 1,869.84, +17.85)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The Nasdaq 100 broke out Monday and finished the week at its highest level since September 2008.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The RSI and stochastic are at high levels but have not turned down yet.
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J A S O N D 2008 M A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2
-150-100-50
050
MACD (79.8330)
50
100Stochastic Oscillator (94.2400)20
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70Relative Strength Index (71.8496)
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NASDAQ 100 (1,818.39, 1,869.90, 1,818.39, 1,869.84, +62.48)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 shows it had a strong week in its march higher.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The RSI and stochastic have entered the overbought zone. They have not turned down yet.
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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-6-5-4-3-2-1012
Price Oscillator (0.62271)0
500
1000 13-Week Closing Highs (367), 13-Week Closing Low (2)
-15
-10
-5
0
5MACD (1.86947)0
50
100Stochastic Oscillator (97.8089)2030405060708090
Relative Strength Index (63.7027)0
50
100% Over 10-Sma (86.8700)150
200
250
300
350S&P 1500 (256.24, 257.58, 256.24, 257.58, +1.34)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
At 86.87% the percent over 10-sma is overbought.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The stochastic is in the overbought zone but the RSI and MACD have room to move higher.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
13-week closing highs has broken out of its recent range but is still less than in October and September, showing investors selectivity.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Our price oscillator, a good indicator of trends, remains in positive territory.
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8 Mar Apr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec 2009 Mar Apr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec
500
1000
x100000
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x100000
Total Volume (1,158,591,616.0)0
50
0
50
% Over 20-SMA (87.2000), % Over 50-SMA (81.2000), % Over 200-SMA (87.8000)0
100200300400500600
0100200300400500600 10-sma 13-Week Highs (218.9), 10-sma 13-Week Lows (17.5)
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0
x100000-999
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Cumulative Net Volume (-5,050,167,808.0)
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Cumulative Net Points (2,613.61)-200-150-100-50
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Advance Decline (1,103.00)
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20
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35Average Price (32.9900)
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100Advance % (77.0800)150
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Wayne
Typewritten Text
Our statistics of market internals are making new highs except Net Volume.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
The percentages of stocks over important moving averages remain at bull market levels.
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008 MarApr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2009 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec
0
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0
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500
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700Gaps Dn (1)
0100200300400500600700
0100200300400500600700
Gaps Up (38)0
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0
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400
500
600New Low Reversals - 26-Weeks (0)0
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0
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150
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New High Reversals - 26-Weeks (26)
0.800.850.900.951.001.051.101.151.20
0.800.850.900.951.001.051.101.151.20
Kaufman Options Indicator (1.05)150
200
250
300
150
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S&P 1500 (256.24, 257.58, 256.24, 257.58, +1.34)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Our proprietary options indicator is showing bullishness on the part of options buyers. This leaves equities vulnerable to a pull back. The five day moving average of the put/call ratio is 0.75, the lowest since 0.765 on 10/16, just before a short-term top.
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2008 MarApr MayJun Jul AugSepOct Nov 2009 Mar Apr May Jul AugSepOct NovDec
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x100000 500
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Up Dollars 50-sma (93,861,880.0), Down Dollars 50-sma (86,413,176.0)
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x1000001000
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x100000
Up Dollars 20-sma (89,074,960.0), Down Dollars 20-sma (61,147,976.0)
10002000300040005000
x10000010002000300040005000
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Up Dollars 10-sma (103,406,520.0), Down Dollars 10-sma (36,683,696.0)
500
1000
500
1000Up Points 50-sma (365.100), Down Points 50-sma (327.710)
500
1000
500
1000
Up Points 20-sma (364.910), Down Points 20-sma (241.210)
500
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1500
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1500Up Points 10-sma (413.170), Down Points 10-sma (166.650)
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x1000002000
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Up Volume 50-sma (2,210,203,904.0), Down Volume 50-sma (2,268,786,432.0)
150020002500300035004000
x100000 150020002500300035004000
x100000
Up Volume 20-sma (2,280,642,560.0), Down Volume 20-sma (1,946,424,704.0)1000
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x100000 1000
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Up Volume 10-sma (2,420,556,288.0), Down Volume 10-sma (1,880,077,312.0)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Our statistics of supply (red) versus demand (green) shows that much of the recent strength is due to a lack of sellers more than to enthusiasm on the part of buyers. With no sellers the path of least resistance should remain higher, but the low volume leaves equities vulnerable to sharp moves in either direction.
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The Kaufman Report - Wayne S. Kaufman, CMT
The Kaufman Report 12/25/2009 John Thomas Financial
2008 MarApr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2009 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec
5
10
15
20
5
10
15
20EPS (1.36000), Est EPS (13.7910), EPS Cont Ops (11.2540)
50100150200250300
50100150200250300FPE TNX Spread % (40.6178)
50100150200250300
50100150200250300PE Cont Ops TNX Spread (14.7500)
-500
50100150
-500
50100150
PE TNX Spread % (-86.1195)10
15
10
15
FPE (18.6800)10
15
20
10
15
20
PE Cont Ops (22.8900)
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200PE (189.240)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0TNX - 10-Year Bond Yield (3.80700)
150
200
250
300
150
200
250
300S&P 1500 (256.24, 257.58, 256.24, 257.58, +1.34)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Bond yields have jumped to their highest level since August 8th.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
P/E ratios continue to climb.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Spreads between bond and equity yields are shrinking as stock prices move up. The spread calculated using earnings based on continuing operations is 14.75%, the lowest since 14.72% on July 2007. That was just above the 10.61% of 7/13/2007, which marked an important short-term top.
Created in MetaStock from Equis International
The Kaufman Report - Wayne S. Kaufman, CMT
The Kaufman Report 12/25/2009 John Thomas Financial
008 MarApr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2009 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Ten-Year Bond Yield (3.80700)700750800850900950
10001050110011501200
700750800850900950
10001050110011501200
Spot Gold (1,105.45)
200
250
300
350
400
450
200
250
300
350
400
450CRB Index (280.920)
50
100
150
50
100
150Spot Oil (77.1500)
75
80
85
75
80
85
US Dollar Index (77.7300)
150
200
250
300
150
200
250
300
S&P 1500 (256.24, 257.58, 256.24, 257.58, +1.34)
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Last week we said there was resistance in the 77 - 78 area, and the U.S. Dollar Index hit 78.45 before pulling back slightly. This pause may be short-term with the next resistance at the 80 - 82 area.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Gold is nearing a short-term bottom.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
Crude oil bounced off support and is now fighting the 50-sma.
Wayne
Typewritten Text
