RCIS 2016 conference paper: Variable Interactions in Risk Factors for Dementia

Variable Interactions in Risk Factors for Dementia

Jim O’ Donoghue, Mark Roantree and Andrew McCarren

Research funded by:European Union Seventh Framework Programme, grant agreement number 304979and Science Foundation Ireland, grant agreement number SFI/12/RC/2289.

25% Introduction

50% Approach

90% Experiments

100% Conclusions2

Dementia

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Dementia

1 Alzheimer Europe, The prevalence of Dementia in Europe, Online: http://www.alzheimer-europe.org/Policy-in-Practice2/Country-comparisons/The-prevalence-of-dementia-in-Europe; Last Accessed 30-05-16 .

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http://www.alzheimer-europe.org/Policy-in-Practice2/Country-comparisons/The-prevalence-of-dementia-in-Europe

Dementia

2 Alzheimer Society, Dementia 2014 Report: Opportunity for Change; Online: https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/dementia2014; Last Accessed 30-05-16.

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https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/dementia2014

Dementia

2 Alzheimer Society, Dementia 2014 Report: Opportunity for Change; Online: https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/dementia2014; Last Accessed 30-05-16.

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https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/dementia2014

In-Mindd

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In-Mindd

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FP7 Project

In-Mindd

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In novative Mi d-lifeIn tervention forD ementiaD eterrence

FP7 Project

In-Mindd

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In-Mindd

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In-Mindd

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Lower dementia risk

in middle-age (40-60)

In-Mindd

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Lower dementia risk

in middle age (40-60)

Modifiable Dementia Risk+Protective Factors

In-Mindd

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Evaluate dementia factors

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Improve dementia survival predictions

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Improve survival predictions

Determine factor interactions

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:7 factor combinations tested

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:Neural network surivival analysis

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:Neural network surivival analysis

:Candidate interactions found

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Test dementia factors

:7 combinations testedImprove survival predictions

:Neural networksDetermine factor interactions

:Hidden layer analysis

Process1. Hyper-Parameter Configuration

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Process1. Hyper-Parameter Configuration

2. Parameter optimisation

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Process2. Parameter optimisation

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.26


1. initialise architecture

2.

3.

4.

5.27



2. construct hypothesis

3.

4.

5.28




3. build cost

4.

5.29




3. build cost

4. construct model

5.30




3. build cost

4. construct model

5. train31

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InputVisible Layer

h(1)HiddenLayer

𝑥

OutputVisible Layer 𝑜

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InputVisible Layer

h(1)

……𝑥2

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥


W(1)

34

InputVisible Layer

h(1)

……𝑥2

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥


W(1)

35

InputVisible Layer

h(1)

……𝑥2

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥


W(1)

36

InputVisible Layer

h(1)

……𝑥2

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥


W(1)

37

a(1)0

InputVisible Layer

h(1)

……𝑥2

a(1)o…a(1)

2a(1)1

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥


W(1)

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a(1)0

InputVisible Layer

W(1)

h(1)

……𝑥2

a(1)o…a(1)

2a(1)1

W(2)

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥

D1

OutputVisible Layer

CD2S 𝑜

Classifications

S -> Surivival

D1 -> Dementia

D2 -> Death (without dementia)

C -> Censorship (study drop-out)

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a(1)0

InputVisible Layer

W(1)

h(1)

……𝑥2

a(1)o…a(1)

2a(1)1

W(2)

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥

D1

OutputVisible Layer

CD2S 𝑜

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a(1)0

InputVisible Layer

W(1)

h(1)

……𝑥2

a(1)o…a(1)

2a(1)1

W(2)

Hidden

𝑥1 𝑥𝑛𝑥0

Layer

𝑥

D1

OutputVisible Layer

CD2S 𝑜

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VariablesMaastricht Ageing Study (MAAS)

840x25 subset

-> 15 binary

-> 9 continuous/discrete

-> 1 derived

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Combinations14 factors

-> 3 non-modifiable

-> 11 modifiable

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-> 3 non-modifiable

- Age

- Gender

- Education before 21

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-> 11 modifiable

3 protective

- Cognitive ativity

- Physical activity

- Moderate alcohol use46


-> 11 modifiable

8 risk- Smoking

- Mid-life obesity

- Mid-life hypertension

- Diabetes

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- Cholesterol- Cardiovascular

disease- Kidney disease - Depression

Combinations14 risk factors

-> 11 modifiable

-> 3 non-modifiable

7 combinations tested

-> 3 baseline no relative risk weight

-> 4 with relative risk48

Combinationswithout relative risk weights

B1 = BinaryBaseline1

B2 = BinaryBaseline2

CB = ContinuousBaseline

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B1 + B2:

11 binary modifiable;

adjusting for age, sex + education

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B1 + B2:

11 binary modifiable;

adjusting for age, sex + education

dementia yes/no vs. multi-class

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B1 + B2:

binary modifiable; adjusting;


CB:

6 binary; ;

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B1 + B2:

binary modifiable; adjusting;


CB: 6 binary; ;

modifiable; adjusting; multi-class53

Combinationswith relative risk weights

BW1

BW2

BW3

CW

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Combinationswith relative risk weights

BW1: 11 binary modifiable; adjusting

BW2

BW3

CW

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Combinations

BW1: 11 binary modifiable; adjusting

BW2: 11 bin. mod. adj.

BW3

CW

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Combinations

BW1: 11 binary mod. adj.

BW2: 11 bin. mod. adj.

BW3: 11 bin. mod.

CW

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Combinations

BW1: 11 binary mod. adjusted

BW2: 11 mod. adj.

BW3: 11 mod.

CW: 6 binary; 5 continuous

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batch size (1, 50)

n hidden nodes (2, 20)

learning rate (0.0001, 0.3)

regularisation (0.0001, 0.1)

max epochs (100, 2000)

max iterations (5000, 100000)

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batch size (1, 50)

n hidden nodes (2, 20)

learning rate (0.0001, 0.3)

regularisation (0.0001, 0.1)

max epochs (100, 2000)

max iterations (5000, 100000)

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Accuracy

0.56

0.59

0.62

0.65

0.68

0.71

B2-sd CB-sd BW1 BW2-sd BW3 CW-sd62

0.0187

0.0002

0.0221

0.003

0.0001 0.0002

B2-sd CB-sd BW1 BW2-sd BW3 CW-sd

Predictive Significance

63

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Risk Interactions

-0.39178

-0.004

-0.003

-0.002

-0.001

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6

age_risk educ_risk cog_actphys_inact obese diabetesdi_alcohol smokes depressedhyperT cholesterol cvdkidney

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Risk Interactions

-0.39178

-0.004

-0.003

-0.002

-0.001

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6

age_risk educ_risk cog_actphys_inact obese diabetesdi_alcohol smokes depressedhyperT cholesterol cvdkidney

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Node Weights

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6

Neural network framework

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HP optimisationHidden layer +Non linear survival analysis

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Confirm and improve predictionsCandidate risk interactions

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Confirm and improve predictionsCandidate risk interactions

Continuous Data + Relative Risk Weight Importance

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[email protected]

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[email protected]

Research funded by:European Union Seventh Framework Programme, grant agreement number 304979and Science Foundation Ireland, grant agreement number SFI/12/RC/2289.

Middle-aged individuals

(40 – 60)

In-Mindd

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Middle-aged individuals

(40 – 60)

Risk Profiler +

Support Environment

In-Mindd

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Middle-aged individuals (40 – 60)

Risk Profiler +

Support Environment

Dementia Risk Factors

In-Mindd

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Sensitivity/Recall

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95


Specificity

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95


Precision

0.45

0.48

0.51

0.54

0.57

0.6

0.63

0.66


Area Under the Curve

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78


RCIS 2016 conference paper: Variable Interactions in Risk Factors for Dementia

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Transcript of RCIS 2016 conference paper: Variable Interactions in Risk Factors for Dementia