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<b><font face="Arial, Helve ica, sans-serif" size="`5">Defense of th
e Draft</font></b><table width="l00%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tr><td width=99% bgcolor=" 003366" height="l"></td><td width=l% bgcolor=#003366 align=right height-"1"`></td>
<tr><td width=99%><font face=verdana,arial size=l>By Sallie Baliuna
s and Willie Soon</font></td><td width=15% bgcolor=*003366 align=right>'cfont face=verdana,ar
ial size=1 color=white> 03/04/2003 </font></td>
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r><td width=l0 bgcolor='#336699'></td>ctd bgcolor'-#003366'><foflt face='Arial,
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<font face="Arial, Helveti a, sans-serif" size="12">The Bush administration has proposed a common-sense review of th
e nation's climate research, one that ~ould lead to a course correction for dir
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ecting an area of scientific inquiry that has benefited from an infusion of ove
r $20 billion in funding in the last tea years. Considerable progress has alrea
dy been made toward understanding the c mplex system of climate change, but mor
e remains to be done to eliminate criti al gaps in our knowledge.
<br><br>Theadministration issued a draft outline analyzing and proposing changes to the C
limate Change Science Program and welco ed all stakeholders - from scientists t
o the public - to discuss the future of climate research. The process is intend
ed to determine what areas of climate r search are in need of greater funding a
nd support.<br><br>The National Research Council organ-zed a panel to review
the draft. The panel was critical of the draft, but rather than clarify the exi
sting state of climate science and research, the panel's members muddied the wa
ters.<cbr><br><b>On the One Hand, On the Other</b><br><br>On the one hand,the panel members claimed that a human-made component of global warming has bee
n firmly established by the scientific community, thus obviating the administra
tion's call for research to reduce uncertainties over anthropogenic warming and
bolstering claims that a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is
necessary. But they also said, paradoxically, that significantly <I>more</I> re
search funding would be necessary to reduce the scientific uncertainties relate
d to human-made global warming.<br><br>One of the panelists criticized the ad
ministration's research priorities, telling the <I> New York Times</T> that res
earch 'that would have been cutting edge in 1980 is listed as a priority for th
e future."<br><br>Despite this panelist's assertion, there are longstanding
improvements needed in basic climate science. For instance, a deteriorating and
insufficient network for ascertaining surface temperature measurements must be
strengthened; and understanding of thE basic physics of convection that govern
s the transfer of large amounts of ene gy must be improved. Even after two deca
des of research in these areas, they r main at the leading edge of problems to
be solved to reduce uncertainty in for casts Of the human-made climate impact.
<br><br>Moreover, the panel asserted that more is known about a human-made war
ming trend than the Bush administration will admit. For example, one panel memb
er, Michael Prather, announced that ab ut half of observed warming trend of the
last few decades is anthropogenic while the remainder is natural.
<br><br>This assertion leaves the impression that a human-caused global warming effect is
understood thoroughly enough to diffe entiate the human warming trend from nat
ural causes, and that research on the matter could be concluded and funding red
uced.<br><br>Scientific claims about anthropogehic warming can be traced to
the conclusions listed in the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Impacts
of Climate Variability and Change and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Pa
nel on Climate Change 2001's Third Ass ssment Report. But these conclusions are
uncertain because the main tools on w ich they are based are computer simulati
ons that have not reliably reproduced either past or current attributes of the
climate system. However, that is not surprising, since the natural influences
of climate are still difficult to mode . Reducing uncertainty about natural var
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iability remains a critical concern in Distinguishing human and natural warming
trends.<br><br>The panel's claims are thus confusi g: While claiming we know
enough to act on global warming by red cing greenhouse gas emissions, the pane
1 also criticized the lack of a commitm nt to substantial new funding for impro
ving climate research.<br><br><b>We Know What We Don't Know </b><br><br>The panel's complaints try to have things both ways: Either the science is comple
te (or complete enough) to move ahead w-th substantial cuts in carbon dioxide e
missions, or the climate forecasts are Uncertain and require substantial advanc
es in order to give reliable forecasts )ne or two centuries into the future. In
the first case, the committee is calli g for reductions in fundamental researc
h in climate change, and a restructuring of energy policy in the U.S., with cos
ts that will be difficult to bear in th~ next decade. In the second case, the a
rgument for much more funding undercuts the previous assertion that the science
is settled.<br><br>Implementing large and immediate cu s in greenhouse gas e
missions will be costly to human health, welfare and the environment. Waiting f
or two or three decades while the techn logy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
improves and becomes more affordable d es not, according to computer simulatio
ns shown in the UN assessment, add significant warming at the end of 100 years.
It would make greenhouse gas cuts easier and more affordable. Most important,
prioritized research in that interval my allow scientific progress in understa
nding climate physics and defining the extent of human-made climate change - wh
ich was the original point of the draft document.</f ont>
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<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="winiow.open( 'display-cormment.jsp?msgid=f3ba
04cd8e' , 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height=500' );">Having it both ways</a> <font cobo ="#666666">by Scot Wilson</font></td>
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erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3ba
59d562' , maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Dano</font></td>
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<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"'><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3ba
a5666c' ,'maint , 'scrollbars=yes,width=34o,height=500');">
Re: Having it both ways</a> <toflt color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</foflt><
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t =10>< /td><td><font face=-Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=" 1"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:; onClick='wifl ow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3bb
bfO2af','maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=3 0,height=500' );">
Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a>&n sp;<font color="#666666">by Dano</foflt>
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<td width=1Q valign=top><img sr =imnages/feedback arrow--right.gif width=9 hei
t= 10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='1"><a class~nou
erline href="javascnipt.;" onClick="win low.open( 'display_comment.jsp?tnsgid~f3bb
be7c29' , maint' lscrollbars~yes,width=3 10,height=500');>
Re: Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666 ">by Rick Ma
rliave</font></td></tr></ table>
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<td widthl10 valign=top><img src=irnages/feedback arrow_right.gif width=9 hei
t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3bc
3alad4' ,'maint', scrollbars~yes,width=340,height'$00');V>
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both ways</a> <foflt color="#666666">by Dan
o</font></td>
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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td>
<td width=10 valign~top><iffg s ~c=images/feedback-arrow--right.gif width'9 hei
t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;' onClick='wi idow.open( 'display~comment. jsp?msgid~f3bc
c4ccld' , maint , 'scrollbars~yes,width k40,height=500') ;">
A lesson on Adam Smith</a> <font olor="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font></
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<table border="10" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0' width="100%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img sic=images/feed~back-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei
t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi idow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid=f3bef3a669' ,'maint','scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');<I>Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666">byElectro the Capitalist Boy</font></td>
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<table border="O" cellspacing="0" cellpaddirng="O" width="100%"><tr><td width=1Q valign=top> </td><td width=1Q valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei
t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;"f onClick="wirdow.open( 'display~comment. jsp?msgid=f3bbc~e~ba' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500') U'>Re: Re: Having it both ways'c/a> <font color="#666666">by ejt</font></td>
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t=l10 ></Itd><td><fornt face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display-comment .jsp?msgid=f3bbc34e78 , 'maint', scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500') ;">Re: Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font></td>
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<table border="0" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="0" width="l00%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top> <Itd><td width=10 valign=top><img sic=images/feedback arrow_right.gif width=9 hei
t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdaria, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript.;" onClick="wirdow.open( display~comment .jsp?msgid=f3bb88c8ld' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= -40,height=500') ;">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="f4666666">by Praxus</font></td>
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<table border="0" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> <Itd><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei
t=10></td><td><font tace='Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=" 1"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'display-comment jsp?msgid=f3bb9cebe0' ,'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');if>Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Mark Wilson</tont></tdi>
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</tr></table>
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t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc4b5e7a' , maint , 'scrollbars=yes,width='40,height=500') ;">,Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> < ont color="#666666">by freepete</font></td>
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<table border="10" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="Oh width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback_arrow-right.gif width=9 hei
t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbc7b541', 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500') ;">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by cbsimkins</font></td>
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<table border="0"l cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"l width="100%"1><tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img src=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei
t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display-commnent. jsp?msgid=f3bc466c7a', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways<c/a> <font color="#666666">by freepete</font></td>
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t=10></td><td><font tace="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick&'win ow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3beb3lfd2' ,'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a> y<font color="#666666">by tom</font></td>
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erline href="1javascript:; 'onClick="wifldow.open( displayc 0mment.jsp?msgid=f3bb
8ad733', 'maint', colasye~it=4,heih= r0);U>
How True</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="#6 6 66 6 6' >by Praxus</font></td>
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t=l10>< /td><td><font face=",Verdanla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"><a class~nou
erline href="1javascript:;" oriClick="wifl ow.open( 'display_c0omment.jsp?msgid=f3be
9a5f9a' ,'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width-3 0,height=500') ;'>
Re: How True</a>&flbsp;<foflt color"*656 66"61>by Jayakama1</foflt></td>
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<td><forit face="Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"><a class=nou
erlirne href="javascript:;" onClick="wifl ow.open('display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bb
9f5ae5 , 'mairnt' , scrollbars~yes,width=3 10,height=500');">
It's all about money<c/a> <foflt col r=`#666666">by Mark Wilson</foflt></td>
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<td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow__right.gif width=9 hei
t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=`l1"><a class=nou
erline href="1javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( display~corwfent.jsp?msgidtf3bb
bb686c' , 'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width= 40,height=500') ;">
Re: It's all about <s>money<!s> or sorn thing</a>&flbsp<foflt color="*#666666">by
Dario< /font>< /td>
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<td widthl10 valign~top> </td>
<td widthl10 valign~top><img s c=images/feedback arrow_right.gif width=9 hei
t =l0>< /td><td><forit face="Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="1l"><a class~nou
erline href=1"javascript.V'1 onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-commeflt. jsp~msgid~f3bb
b56416' , maint,' ,scrollbars~yes,width=340 ,height=500' );
Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="#6666 6 6 "
>by Mark Wilson</foflt></td><Itr></table>
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<td widthl10 valign~top><img src=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hel
t=l0></td><td><foflt face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size-"1"><a class=nou
erline href="'javascript:;"1 oriClick="wiflow.open('display_comment.jsp?msgid=f3bb
ca63f9', maint' , scrollbars~yes,width=3 40,height=500' );C>
Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a>&flbsp;<foflt color='#66 6 6
6 6'
>by Dano</font></td>
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t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"><a class~flou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wif~low.open( 'display-commnent.jsp?msgid~f3bb
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Re: Tt's all about money</a> <foflt color="#666666">by Steve L.<!foflt></td>
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<td width=l0 valigritop><img sr ~=images/feedback arrow__night.gif width=9 hei
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erline href="javascript:;" ornClicc="'window.open( display-comment.jsp?mslgid~f3bc
260cl11','maint,',crol~0 lbars=yes,width=340,height=500');>
Re: Re: It's all about money</a> <foflt color="*#666666"'>by Charlie Mcc.</fo
nt></td></tr>
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erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi idow.open( 6 isplay-comnment.jsp?msgid~f3bc
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Re: Re: It's all about money</a> . font color="#666666"1>by freepete</font><
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<td width=10 valign~top><img sr5 mgsfedakaro-ih~i width=9 hei
t=10></td><td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class~nou
erline hnef="1javascript:;" onClick="wfldow.opefl( isjplay~comm~ent.jspInsgid~f3bc
524042', 'maint', scrollbarstyes,width=340,height=500') ;">
Re: It's all about rnoney</a> <fort color="*#666666"1>by fneepete</foflt></td>
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4
~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Page 21 of 24
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<table border="O" cellspacilg="O" cellpaddjing='O' width='lOO%6>
<tr>
<td width=1O valign=top><img sr =images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hel
t=lo></td>
<td><font face=lVerdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='1"><a class=nau
erline href='hjavascript: ;" onClick="wifl ow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid~f3bc
8d9a4c',,'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width=3 2O,height=500');">
Global</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="*666666'I>by Mike Weatherford</foflt><!td>
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<table border='O"1 cellspacilg="O" cellpadding="Q" width="100%",>
<tr><td widthlO0 valign~top> </td>
<td widthlO0 valign~top><img sr ,=images/feedbacZk arrow_nright.gif width=9 hel
t~l0></td><td><cfont face='Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="1'><a class=nou
erline href='javascript:;" onClick="wifl ow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc
c0994 7', 'maint,' ,scrollbars~yes,width=
3 O,height=500');H'>
Re: Global</a> <font color="*#666EG ">by Steve L</foflt></td>
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<td widthlO0 valign~top><img sic=images/feedbackarrow right~gi :f width=9 hei
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<td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class~nou
erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( displa comm~feft.jsp~msgid=f3be
661c17,'maintfl' , scrollbars~yes,width=.40,height=5OO);"
Acting ofl imperfect irnformatiofl</a>&flb p;<font color='#666666"1>by Dave mrown</f
ont></td></tr>
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