RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM … · RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM V INVESTOR...

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RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM V INVESTOR PRESENTATION January 15, 2015 | Toronto, Ontario

Transcript of RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM … · RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM V INVESTOR...

Page 1: RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM … · RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM V INVESTOR PRESENTATION January 15, 2015 | Toronto, Ontario . 2 This presentation and comments

RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER

SUPER CYCLE FORUM V

INVESTOR PRESENTATION January 15, 2015 | Toronto, Ontario

Page 2: RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM … · RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM V INVESTOR PRESENTATION January 15, 2015 | Toronto, Ontario . 2 This presentation and comments

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This presentation and comments associated with it contain

forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S.

housing recovery, the potential for constrained lumber supply,

energy-related opportunities, earnings sensitivity and estimated

annual capital expenditures. These statements are subject to

the cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013

Annual Management’s Discussion & Analysis which can be

accessed on the Company website www.westfraser.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

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• To be a leading forest products manufacturer,

focused on solid wood products

• Strong financial results through the business cycle

• Long-term growth and shareholder value

enhancement

• Stable, conservative financial structure

Our Goals

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• Operational excellence

• Diversification

• Product differentiation

• Integration

Our Strategy

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• Managing to ensure a committed workforce

• Cost control and efficiency

• Continuous reinvestment

• Internal and external benchmarking and

competition

• Straightforward, consistent business model

Operational Excellence

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LUMBER 27 mills

PANELS 7 mills

PULP & PAPER 5 mills

SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 2.3 Bfbm Total 6.2 Bfbm

Plywood: 830 MMsf3/8” MDF: 300 MMsf3/4” LVL: 3.2 MMcf

NBSK: 590 Mtonnes BCTMP: 650 Mtonnes Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes

Product Diversification

• North America’s largest lumber producer

• Largest plywood producer in Canada

• Third largest pulp producer in Canada

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Lumber66%

Panels11%

Pulp & Paper23%

Trend Sales Mix ($)

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Operations diversified by geography

Geographic diversification

B.C. 40%

Alberta 23%

U.S. 37%

Lumber Capacity

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• Wood as the best environmental choice

• Renewable resource, sustainable business

• Expanding applications

• Bioenergy, full use of the resource

Product Differentiation

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• Lumber, panels, pulp, newsprint and energy

• Substantial fibre self-sufficiency

• Fuller utilization of resource

• Some benefits from counter-cyclicality

• Better able to respond to new opportunities

such as bioenergy

Integration (in Canada)

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Demand - North American housing

- Chinese construction and

industrial applications

- Japanese housing

Supply - Fibre limitations

- Residual offtake

- Mill closures

- People

Efficiency - Capital investment

- Business model

Earnings Growth Drivers - Lumber

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Returns on Lumber

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Ytd

Q3

-14

EBITDA Margin (%) - Lumber

Average: 16%

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U.S. Housing M

illio

n U

nit

s

Source: FEA, Q3 2014

Significant pent up demand bodes well for long-term recovery

Pent Up Housing Demand (conventional + mobile)

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Production Underlying Demand

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50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

30 year average share = 76%

US Housing

Single Family Share well below 30 year average Share of single-family housing starts

Source: FEA

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Unlike Single-Family, Multi-family has Recovered

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thousands

Single-Family (Left Scale) Multi-Family (Right Scale)

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U.S. Lumber End Use

U.S. Lumber End-use 2013 U.S. Lumber End-use Normalized

Source: FEA and WF

Single Family Construction,

24%

Multifamily Construction, 3%

Residential Improvements,

38%

Industrial Production, 30%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 5%

Single Family Construction,

37%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

29%

Industrial Production, 23%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 7%

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Canadian Shipments to China

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Proj.

MM

fbm

Source: Council of Forest Industries, September 2014

Equivalent to 300,000 housing starts *

* Based on consumption of 11.5 Mfbm per U.S. housing start (average mix of single and multi family)

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B.C. Shipments to Japan

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Proj.Shipments 2x4 Starts

Source: Council of Forest Industries, September 2014

Mmfbm Thousand 2x4 Starts

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

We

st F

rase

r

Can

for

We

yco

GP

Inte

rfo

r

Sie

rra

Pac

ific

Res

olu

te

Tolk

o

Ham

pto

n

Sim

pso

n

Mmfbm

Top 10 Lumber Capacity

Top 10 make up only 43% of Capacity

North American Lumber Capacity

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Canadian Fibre Supply M

illio

n (

M3

)

Source: FEA, Q4 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Annual Allowable Cut

Quebec Ontario BC Interior

Forecast

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U.S. South Positive Timber Inventory

Bfbm Int’l ¼”

Source: FEA, Q4 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Growth Drain

Projected Excess Growth

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Demand - China’s paper, tissue and packaging

demand

- Developing countries’ demand

- Price of cotton and similar products

Supply - European paper capacity closures

- Russian and Canadian start ups

- Product diversification

(e.g. dissolving pulp)

- South American production

Reliability - Capital

- Technology

Earnings Growth Drivers - Pulp

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Pulp & Paper Sales Mix – 2013 ($)

North America,

38%

Asia, 56%

Europe, 6%

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Chemical Pulp End-Use Products

Printing and Writing Papers

31%

Tissue 31%

Specialty Papers 19%

Fluff Based Products

10%

Boxboard 5%

Other 4%

Source: PPPC 2013

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BCTMP Pulp End-Use Products

Boxboard 44%

Printing & Writing 41%

Specialty Papers 8%

Newsprint 4%

Other 3%

Source: PPPC 2013

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Alberta Newsprint is the lowest cost newsprint producer in North America

and a positive contributor to the profitability of our pulp and paper business

Paper — Newsprint

Source: PPPC Cost Survey 2012

Cd

n$

/to

nn

e

North American Newsprint Cost Structure Par Exchange Rate

ANC

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• Woodwaste to produce heat and steam to dry

wood products and for electricity and steam for

pulp mills

• Woodwaste to produce electricity to be used or

sold

• Pulp mill effluent as a source for biogas-electricity

generation

• Expanding opportunities to generate and sell

electricity levering off current business

Energy Opportunities

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Power Generation from Biomass

Cariboo pulp mill turbo-generator (completed) • Mill achieved energy self-sufficiency and excess power sold to

B.C. Hydro

Slave Lake pulp mill biomethanation project • Estimated startup late 2014

B.C. Hydro (Phase II) power generation projects (at two sawmills)

• Long-term contracts to sell power to B.C. Hydro

• Projected to reduce costs and contribute to sawmill earnings

when completed

Energy Opportunities

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• Reinvest profits to lower costs, improve efficiency

through technology and improved processes

• Estimate normalized annual capital spending

between $150 and $225 million

• Anticipate capital spending in 2014 to exceed $350

million and in 2015 to approximate $300 million

• Growth through opportunistic acquisitions focused

on solid wood

Capital Strategy

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West Fraser Capital

159

358 321

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 Ytd Q3-14

Capital Spending

Maintenance Timber Profit Improvement Energy

$ Million

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BRITISH

COLUMBIA

SMITHERS

HOUSTON

QUESNEL

WILLIAMS LAKE

CHETWYND

FRASER LAKE

SLAVE LAKE

BLUE RIDGE

CHASM

100 MILE SUNDRE

HINTON EDSON

HIGH PRAIRIE

ALBERTA

2014

2012

Recent Growth

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ARKANSAS

LITTLE

ROCK

MANSFIELD

RUSSELLVILLE

HUTTIG

LEOLA

NEW BOSTON

(TEXAS)

2014

Recent Growth

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• Proven ability to generate strong cash flow even in

worst markets

• Consistent, straightforward business plan

• Loyal, long-term employee and management base

• Conservative financial management coupled with

proven ability to grow strategically

• Strong historical shareholder returns

Why Invest in West Fraser?

Page 34: RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM … · RAYMOND JAMES LUMBER SUPER CYCLE FORUM V INVESTOR PRESENTATION January 15, 2015 | Toronto, Ontario . 2 This presentation and comments

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Strong Cash Generation ($millions)

Total Ytd Q3-14 2013 2012 2011 2010

Cash from Operations 1,554 434 419 195 85 421

Capital Expenditures 1,140 321 358 159 213 89

Acquisitions 233 203 - 30 - -

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Annualized Shareholder Return (Cdn$)

17.3%

6.5% 6.1%

2.5%

0.1%

13.7% 13.6%

7.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

West Fraser DAX Dow S&P/TSX FTSE Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C

June 2006* – December 31, 2014

* June 2006 marked the beginning of the steep decline in U.S. housing starts

Source: TD Bank

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Share Value Traded

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2014 2013 2012

WFT CFP IFP

Cdn$ Million

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“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange

www.WestFraser.com

These materials have been prepared by Management of the

Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of

the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an

offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the

Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the

Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer,

solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may

not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior

registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

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APPENDIX

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Acquisition of Buchanan Lumber,

High Prairie, Alberta • Acquisition includes:

– High Prairie sawmill (current capacity of 110 MMfbm)

– Related real estate and transportation business

– Timber harvesting rights with AAC of 430,000 m3 of coniferous and 21,000 m3 of deciduous timber

• Purchase price of $55.4 million plus working capital paid in cash at closing (April 3, 2014)

• 180 employees

West Fraser intends to expand capacity to approximately 175 MMfbm through an estimated capital investment of $15 million.

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Acquisition of Travis Lumber,

Mansfield, Arkansas • Western Arkansas sawmill

with a workforce of 140

• Purchase price of US$46 million

(C$51 million) plus

working capital paid in

cash at closing

(March 7, 2014)

• Current capacity of 110 MMfbm

West Fraser is planning expansion to approximately 150

MMfbm through an estimated US$10 million (C$11 million

capital) investment.

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Acquisition of Bibler Bros.,

Russellville, Arkansas

• Well-capitalized mill with

190 employees and

annual capacity of

approximately 160 MMfbm

• Purchase price of US$61 million

(C$67 million) plus working capital

payable in cash at closing (anticipated April 25, 2014)

• Will be West Fraser's fourth sawmill located in Arkansas

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Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (2013)

Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables 1

(based on 2013 production - $ millions)

Factor Variation Change in pre - tax e arnings

Lumber price US$ 1 0 ( per Mfbm ) 55

Plywood price Cdn $ 1 0 ( per Msf ) 8

NBSK price US$ 1 0 ( per tonne ) 5

BCTMP price US$ 1 0 ( pe r tonne ) 6

U.S. – Canadian $ exchange rate 2 US$0.01 ( per Cdn $ ) 21

1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign exchange rates.

2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of U. S. dollar - denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the amount of the initial

US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.