Rational Decision MakingFor Engineers

Silicon ValleyCode Camp 2012

ByTim Child

●What We'll Cover Today●Speakers Biography●Why This Topic●Decision Making Patterns●The Decision Process●Framing a Decision●Decision Requirements●Must Requirements●Want Requirements●Evaluating Alternatives●Worked Example●Tools/Publishing●Reference Material●Q & A

Overview

Speakers Bio

●Over 30 years Experience●Programmer and Blogger●CEO 3DMashup ●Previously VP Engineering● Oracle, BEA Systems, Informix Inc.

Why Are Decisions Hard?

“On the really tough ones I go rock, paper, scissors, “

Goal: Get Commitment from Stakeholders!

● Impact● Fair● Rational● Transparent● Understood

Decision Style

From: Tannenbaum & Schmidt, HBR May 1973

Manager decides,

announces

Managerpermits

subordinatesto function

within limits

Manager presentstentativedecisionsubject to change

Manager sells

Manager presents

ideas,invites

questions

Manager presentsproblem,

gets suggestions,

makesdecision

Manager defineslimits,groupmakes

decision

ManagerAuthority

SubordinatesFreedom

The Decision ProcessUse Case

MakeDecision

CreateDecision

Statement

GenerateRequirements

GenerateMusts

GenerateWants

GenerateAlternatives

EvaluateAlternatives Announce

Decision

Framing A Decision

● Framing Impacts Peoples Benefits/Loss Differently

● How you Frame a Decision Impacts its Outcome

The Decision Statement● The Focus of the Decision Process

● Specifies Action or Intended Result

● Sets Limits of Choices

Goal; Generate a Balanced Decision Statement

Decision Requirements

●Establish the Objectives a Decision●Specific Details of What's to be Accomplished●Two Categories●Wants●Musts●Done Before Considering the Alternatives

Must Requirements

● Must Be Achieved to Guarantee Success● Mandatory● Measurable

Decides Who are the Players

Want Requirements

● Judged on Relative Performance● Hard to Measure Must● Can be Weighted for Importance

Decides Who's the Winner

Evaluating Alternatives

● Ideal Alternative Fulfills Every Condition● Ideal Alternatives Are Rare● Very Risky Alternative is Not the Best Choice● Decide if a Sole Alternative is Good Enough

Decision Matrix

Requirements Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Musts

Must 1 √ √ √

Must 2 √ √ √

Meets Requirements √ √ X

Wants Weight

Want 1 50% 100 120 200

Want 2 25% 80 60 100

Want 3 25% 20 40 20

Score 200 220 320

Weighted Score 75 85 130

Rank 2 1 -

Statement: In Which City Should We Locate European Software Development?

WorkedExample

Consequences of the Choice

“The evil that men do lives after them,

the good is oft interred with their bones ...”

William Shakespeare

● Evaluate Adverse Consequences Before

a Final Decision● Managed Risks are OK● Don't Ignore Your Instincts

Tools &Publishing

● Whiteboard● Spread Sheet/ MS Word● Google Docs● Desktop App● Mobile App● Email

References

● New Rational Manager Amazon Book

● HBR Leadership Patterns Tannenbaum & Schmidt

● Slides on my Blog Post

● Slides a Silicon Valley Code Camp 2012

The New Rational Manager

First Published 1965Princeton Research Press

Republished 1981

Republished Again 1997

Available at Amazon.Com

Contents● Problem Diagnosis● Decision Analysis● Problem Prediction

Question&

Answers