Rating: SELL In reverse gear - Business...
Transcript of Rating: SELL In reverse gear - Business...
Sector: Automobile
Sector view: Negative
Sensex: 17,383
52 Week h/l (Rs): 33 / 20
Market cap (Rscr) : 5,641
6m Avg vol (‘000Nos): 7,436
Bloomberg code: AL IB
BSE code: 500477
NSE code: ASHOKLEY
FV (Re): 1
Price as on Sep 07, 2012
Company rating grid
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Ashok Ley Sensex
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Promoters Institutions Others%
Change in Estimates Rating Target
Rating: SELL Target: Rs18.5
CMP: Rs21.2
Downside: 12.7%
Change in Estimates Rating Target
Company Report September 10, 2012
Research Analyst: Prayesh Jain Naman Jain
In reverse gear Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry in India, after witnessing a 28.4% CAGR over the past four years, is now seeing multiple headwinds in the form of poor economic growth, high interest rates, mining ban, falling domestic and international trade and low capital formation. With excess tonnage capacity in the system and bleak economic outlook we expect CV volumes, particularly M&HCV, to be under pressure. LCV volume growth is also expected to moderate on a high base created with a 32% CAGR over the past four years. With robust long term outlook for domestic CV industry, foreign players such as Daimler, Volvo, Navistar are establishing their presence in India. Incumbents are now feeling the heat of competition and have resorted to steep discounts. Financiers for CV purchases have seen a rise in their gross NPA levels leading to tightening of financing norms such as lowering of loan to value ratio. Fleet operators are reeling under the pressure of declining freight rates and increased waiting period for return trips. Ashok Leyland (AL) gained market share across segments in YTD FY13 on the back of relatively lesser decline in southern market. However, we believe, this would not sustain as increasing competition would eventually eat into the market share. For M&HCV, we expect AL to report a decline of 4% in FY13. AL, with its Dost model, has made its presence felt in the LCV segment which has been outperforming in the CV industry. However, lower margins on Dost will hurt profitability of the company. We estimate that PAT would decline by 21% in FY13. With Rs4.5bn planned spend on capex and Rs3.5bn infusion in JVs and subsidiaries, cash‐flows will remain strained. Leverage on the books is also expected to rise. Although, the stock price has corrected by 33% since the beginning of FY13, current valuation multiples continue to be higher than historic average and previous downcycle. We downgrade our rating from Market Performer to SELL with a revised 9‐month price target of Rs18.5.
Financial summary Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Revenues 111,771 128,420 140,099 154,391
yoy growth (%) 54.3 14.9 9.1 10.2
Operating profit 12,137 12,561 11,557 13,062
OPM (%) 10.9 9.8 8.2 8.5
Reported PAT 6,313 5,660 4,478 5,507
yoy growth (%) 49.0 (10.3) (20.9) 23.0
EPS (Rs) 4.7 2.1 1.7 2.1
P/E (x) 4.5 10.0 12.6 10.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 6.9 7.8 7.0
Debt/Equity (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
RoE (%) 16.5 13.8 10.4 12.1
RoCE (%) 14.8 12.7 10.0 11.0 Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland
2
Difficult environment in FY12… Economic environment in India has been under severe stress from many counts over the past one year. Inflation has remained elevated for elongated period causing the central bank to sustain with its tight monetary policy resulting in high interest rates. Furthermore, industrial production, a key demand driving factor for CVs, has weakened substantially in the past one year. Infrastructure spending has been on the lower side on the back of several bureaucratic issues. Mining industry, also, has its own share of problems such as mining ban in Karnataka.
… but CV demand remained resilient… creating excess capacity In spite of the aforementioned economic headwinds, domestic CV industry displayed a resilient performance in FY12. Total industry volumes registered a growth of 19.4% yoy in FY12 as compared to 38.7% and 27.5% in FY10 and FY11 respectively. This performance, we believe, has led to over capacity in the system, which has been reflected in the weakening of freight rates. As per Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training (IFTRT), an independent tariff determining agency, truck rentals declined substantially in the first four months of FY13. Media reports also suggest that trucks have been waiting for 3‐4 days to pick load for their return trips.
Economic environment for CV manufacturers was tough in FY12 with high interest rates, low industrial productivity and slowdown in infrastructure investments
In spite of the difficult environment CV demand remained resilient, which led to excess capacity in the system. This has resulted in lower freight rates
Weakening of IIP across FY12 Interest rates hardened during FY12
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
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4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Apr‐11
Jun‐11
Aug‐11
Oct‐11
Dec‐11
Feb‐12
Apr‐12
Jun‐12
0
2
4
6
8
10
May‐05
May‐06
May‐07
May‐08
May‐09
May‐10
May‐11
May‐12
(%)Reverse Repo Repo
Source: MOSPI, India Infoline Research Source: Bloomberg, India Infoline Research
M&HCV growth remained strong at 8% in FY12 Excess available M&HCV capacity
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
‐40%
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‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%Total M&HCV yoy growth
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13P
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
M&HCV Capacity Growth in GDP ‐ Industry
Growth in M&HCV capacity
BTKM
Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research Source: Crisil, India Infoline Research *BTKM Bn tones per KM
Ashok Leyland
3
Ex-tippers FY12 growth was at 3% Tippers segment in FY12 registered a 39% yoy jump in volumes as compared to 8.8% growth for total CVs. The growth was driven by increase in construction and infrastructure projects, replacement sales and pent up demand due to shortage of spares in FY11. Sans the tippers segment, M&HCV goods segment would have grown by only 3%. With a chunk of tippers demand arising from the mining and construction industries, outlook for both of which is bleak, we see this segment witnessing a sharp decline in FY13.
Even if economic growth improves, CV demand recovery will lag In a bull case scenario ie economy recovers faster than street expectations, two factors will ensure that the demand recovery for CVs will lag the economic recovery 1) overcapacity exists in the system in terms of available tonnage capacity and 2) the age profile of the country’s fleet has got younger with share of trucks within 0‐5 years category has risen from 29% in FY02 to 42% in FY12. These factors, we believe, will also translate into a weak replacement demand in the years to come. Increasing proportion of 0‐5 years CVs
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45%
50%
FY91
FY92
FY93
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Source: Crisil, India Infoline Research
In spite of the mining ban tippers segment saw a robust growth of 39% in FY12
Given the under utilization of existing fleet and a young profile of country’s fleet CV demand recovery will lag economic recovery
Tipper segment was the driving force in FY12 Weak mining activity in FY12 has left tippers under utilized
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10
20
30
40
Total Tipper Ex‐tipper
%
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Apr‐11
May‐11
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Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Source: SIAM, Crisil, India Infoline Research Source: MOSPI, India Infoline Research
Ashok Leyland
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Financing of CVs getting tough More than 90% of the CVs are sold via the financing route in the domestic markets which results in high sensitivity of demand to various financing norms. Interest rate is a key factor here and after being sedate for most part of FY11 has seen a substantial rise in FY12. With freight rates weakening, cash‐flows for fleet operators are under stress causing the financiers to tighten lending norms. Loan to value has also been reduced by key financiers. While NPAs in the sector have not shown alarming increase, recovery in some pockets such as mining is getting difficult and will only see further stress in the near future. Increasing gross NPAs of Shriram Commercial Vehicle Finance
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2.6%
2.7%
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Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1 FY13
Source: Shriram Commercial Vehicle Finance, India Infoline Research Diesel price hike, if any, will hurt more Diesel prices have remained unchanged for an extended period given its impact on inflation. With oil marketing companies and the government suffering huge burden of the under‐recoveries on diesel, small price hikes cannot be ruled out. If prices are raised, fleet operators, who are already reeling under the pressure of under‐utilization will find it difficult to pass on the impact leading to worsening of their profitability and cash flows, eventually hitting the demand for M&HCVs. Fleet operators not in a state to pass on incremental diesel prices if any
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0.25
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13P
Incremental avg freight Incremental avg diesel price
Rs/ tonne Km
Source: Shriram Commercial Vehicle Finance, India Infoline Research
With freight rates weakening, cash‐flows for fleet operators are under stress causing the financiers to tighten lending norms Shriram Commercial Vehicle Finance, a leading CV financing company has seen a consistent rise in gross NPAs for most of FY12 Any increase in diesel prices will only add to the woes of fleet operators
Ashok Leyland
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Increasing competition another threat for incumbents With bright long term prospects for the Indian commercial vehicle industry, large global players such as Daimler, Volvo, Navistar, etc have entered Indian markets with domestic partners. Some players have made in‐roads in few segments and have successfully garnered decent market shares. We believe, incumbents will lose market share in the medium term given robust plans of the new entrants which are entailed below. Daimler: The world #2 truck maker has announced its entry in the Indian CV market through its range of Bharat Benz trucks recently. Truck production has already started in the Greenfield manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu, which has a capacity of 36,000 trucks/year (possible to be ramped up to 70,000 trucks/year). Two third of the total capex commitment of Rs44bn has already been invested in the plant and setting up of distribution network throughout the country (70 retail locations aimed by 2012 end). Company is beginning with a 25 tonne vehicle in September 2012 and has plans to have 17 CVs in 6‐49 tonne category by end of 2014. According to media inputs, the trucks are expected to be 5‐10% pricier than competition but are boasting of 10% better fuel efficiency over its peers. The Heavy duty and Low duty trucks are based on the Axor, Fuso Canter platform respectively which are well proven across various world markets. Understanding the fact that such credentials do not guarantee success in Indian market, the company is focussing on localisation with an aimed 85% localisation rate by working closely with more than 4500 suppliers and having ~40% suppliers within 40km radius of the plant. AMW: Asia Motor Works has been present in Indian markets since 2008 and is among the fastest growing truck brand in India for the last three years. It has a capacity of 50,000 units/year in its manufacturing facility in Bhuj, Gujarat and has offerings in the 16‐49 tonne category. It has been doing well in the 16‐25 tonne ‐ Rigid category wherein it has gained market share in recent years from the two majors: Tata‐Motors and Ashok Leyland. According to recent media reports, the company is planning to raise US$100‐150mn for its expansion in the premium modern truck market. Market share of AMW in 16.2‐25.2 ton rigid M&HCV goods category
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4%
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8%
10%
12%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research
With bright long term prospects for the India commercial vehicle industry, large global players have entered Indian markets with domestic partners
Daimler is beginning with a 25 tonne vehicle in September 2012 and has plans to have 17 CVs in 6‐49 tonne category by end of 2014 AMW has been doing well in the 16‐25 tonne ‐ Rigid category
Ashok Leyland
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Mahindra Navistar: US Based Navistar corporation has tied up with M&M to enter in the Indian CV space. M&M, known for its customer‐centric innovation, can be the perfect partner for the US‐based truck maker to understand and customise products for the Indian market. The initial performance in FY12 has been impressive wherein the company has been able to garner small market shares (2‐3%) in 16‐25 tonne, >25 – rigid category and >35.2 – haulage segments each. The JV has a greenfield plant at Chakan, Maharasthra with investments of over Rs40bn and with an installed scalable capacity of 50,000 units/year. Buoyed by the initial performance, the JV has plans to have offerings in the full spectrum of CV segment and has announced recently to expand the dealerships to 100 in next 12 months. Mahindra Navistar market share in three segments in 2nd year of operation
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1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
16.2‐25 ‐Rigid > 25 Rigid > 35.2 Hualage
Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research
Volvo‐Eicher: VECV has been a strong player in 7.5‐12 tonne category (38% market share in MHCV goods carrier), but has a minimal share in the 25‐49 tonne category. Of late we have seen the company gaining traction in HCV segment and as per media reports the JV announced plans to break into the HCV segment of trucks with capex of Rs10bn in next few years. The trucks are expected to be based on Volvo’s UD platform and would be priced at 10% premium to its peers. With a long presence in Indian market, the JV has the advantage of better understanding of Indian market dynamics. VECV has seen steady increase in its total M&HCV goods market share
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FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research
The initial performance in of Mahindra Navistar has been impressive with market share gains (2‐3%) in 16‐25 tonne, >25 – rigid category and >35.2 – haulage segments VECV has been a strong player in 7.5‐12 tonne category (38% market share in MHCV goods carrier)
Ashok Leyland
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LCV demand to remain robust Over the past few years, LCVs have outperformed most segments across all vehicle categories on the back of emergence and increasing acceptance of the hub and spoke model in the transportation industry. The outperformance has been more pronounced in the small LCVs. We expect this trend to continue given the scope of penetration for the small LCVs in both tier II cities as well as the rural areas. This would continue to drive the growth for the LCV segment which has grown by 30% in FY12 and 18% in YTD FY13.
Rising acceptance of the hub and spoke model will keep demand for LCVs very strong
Strong demand growth for LCV goods carrier over the past few years
Growth has been more prominent in 2‐3.5ton category
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Q1 FY12
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Tonnage < 2 Tonnage > 2 and < 3.5
Tonnage > 3.5 and < 6 Tonnage > 6 and < 7.5
Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research
Hub and spoke model driving demand for LCVs
Source: Crisil, India Infoline Research
Ashok Leyland
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AL outperformed in recent times, but can it continue? AL has regained some market share in the M&HCV segment it had lost in FY12 during YTD FY13. This was on the back of some strength in the southern market which had been plagued by certain issues 1) mining ban in Karnataka, 2) Telangana issue and 3) elections in FY12. These issues have receded but they will continue to impact demand in the near term. We believe the recovery will be short‐lived; with increasing competitive pressure, the company will lose market share in the M&HCV category over the medium term.
Increasing discount levels support our view With a slowing demand and increasing competition, the company, in order to increase/sustain its market share has resorted to increasing discounts on its products. The competition too has been aggressive here. In fact, the discounting levels have surmounted to levels whereby the price hikes implemented at the beginning of the fiscal have been completely negated. Current discount levels are ruling at Rs60,000‐65,000 per vehicle for AL. Trend in discounts per vehicle for AL
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Rs/Vehicle
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
In YTD FY13, AL has regained market share it lost in FY12 on the back of a relatively better performance of southern market This performance will be short lived as competition eats up into the share
AL has resorted to higher discounts to protect its market share
AL recovered regained market share in FY13 in all categories except >35.3ton haulage
Long term trend indicate market share loss for AL and Tata Motors to new players
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ton
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ton
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ton Rigid
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Rigid
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ton
Haulage
>35.2 ton
Haulage
Mkt share FY11 Mkt share FY12Mkt share YTD FY13
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YTD FY13
ALL TAMO Others
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Ashok Leyland
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Dost to be the volume driver… AL along with its JV partner Nissan entered into the LCV segment by launching Dost, a LCV with a payload of 1.25tons. Since the launch, the product has received astounding response and has garnered substantial market share from Tata Motors and M&M. Currently, it sells about 2,800 vehicles per month and has a market share of 20% in the LCV segment under <3.5ton goods carrier category. As mentioned before, we expect this segment to see continued strong demand driven by the increasing acceptance of the hub and spoke model. AL has a target of 30,000‐32,000 Dost sales in FY13, which we feel is achievable. Robust growth in Dost volumes
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Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research Volume assumptions for AL FY12 FY13E FY14E
M&HCV Domestic 81,147 78,121 82,027
M&HCV Exports 12,135 12,309 13,294
LCV 8,827 31,318 36,411
Total 102,109 121,748 131,732 Source: Company, India Infoline Research … but will dilute margins The arrangement between the AL‐Nissan JV and AL is such that it will cause AL to earn lower margins on Dost volumes as compared to its existing product range. AL manufactures 100% volumes of Dost, for which it receives contract manufacturing charge from the JV. The JV then sells the vehicle in Tamil Nadu through AL’s retail outlets. The sales are recorded in JV books (entitling the JV to earn VAT credit from the state government) while the JV pays AL a marketing charge for use of outlets, which gets recorded in AL’s topline. Outside Tamil Nadu, JV sells the entire product to AL which in turns sells to customers. In this, JV records sales in its books to AL which gets recorded as purchases in AL’s books. AL records in the topline when the product gets sold to customers outside Tamil Nadu. In Q1 FY13, the mix between Tamil Nadu and non‐Tamil Nadu sales was 28:72. The proportion of non‐Tamil Nadu sales will increase in future. This, as per management, will lead to a negative margin impact of ~100bps.
With strong growth in LCV demand and well acceptance of Dost in the market, we expect Dost to be the volume driver for AL AL has gained substantial market share in the small LCV segment Manufacturing and marketing arrangement with AL‐Nissan JV results in lower margins on Dost when compared to AL’s existing portfolio
Ashok Leyland
10
Investments in JVs far from breaking even At the end of FY12, AL had ~Rs4.5bn worth of investments in JVs. These JVs reported a cumulative loss of Rs1.6bn in FY12. With more investments planned for these ventures and grim prospects for the Indian economy, we believe, breakeven for these investments will not be achieved in the near future.
Ashok Leyland – Nissan: The JV with Nissan motor company has been formed for manufacturing LCVs. The first product, Dost vehicle was launched in Q3 FY12 and has been accepted very well in the market. Within short span of time it has gained #2 position with a ~20% market share in 2‐3.5 tonne LCV category. Further building upon the success of Dost the JV plans to bring a passenger version of vehicle in the market by Q4 FY13 named as Stile. Presently the JV vehicles are manufactured at the Hosur facility of AL, but going ahead a full fledged greenfield facility for the JV is planned in Tamil Nadu. The capex commitment for the plant is Rs20bn of which Rs2bn has already been spent. The plant is expected to come up by FY15‐16.
Sales and marketing arrangement between AL and Nissan JV
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Building upon the success of Dost the JV plans to bring a passenger version of vehicle in the market by Q4 FY13 named as Stile
A full fledged greenfield facility for the JV is planned in Tamil‐Nadu
Performance of key JVs
ALL's share (Rs mn) JV actual (Rs mn)
Investment (Rs mn) Losses/Gains Losses/Gains
S No. Name of JV PoI (%) FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11
1 Ashok Leyland Nissan Vehicles Ltd. 49.05 2,071 1,688 (171) (11) (348) (11)
2 Nissan Ashok Leyland Powertrain 48.68 735 544 (46) (3) (95) (3)
3 Nissan Ashok Leyland Technologies 49.00 255 255 (158) (102) (323) (102)
4 Ashok Leyland John Deere Construction Equipment Company 50.00 609 424 (293) (45) (585) (45)
5 Ashley Alteams India Ltd. 50.00 400 350 (107) (107) (214) (107)
6 Automotive Infotronics Ltd. 50.00 158 158 (28) 22 (57) 22
Total 4,227 3,419 (803) (246) (1,621) (246)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Manufacturing arrangement
Sales arrangement
Ashok Leyland Ashok Leyland – Nissan JV
Manufactures 100% of Dost volumes
JV gives AL contract manufacturing charge
Ashok Leyland – Nissan JV
Tamil Nadu
Outside Tamil Nadu
JV sells through AL’s outlets
Ashok Leyland
Customer
Customer
AL charges JV for usage of outlets. Rest gets recorded in JV books
JV sells to AL which in turn sells to customers. AL records sales and purchases under respective heads
Ashok Leyland
11
Leyland Deere: The Joint venture has been formed to foray into the construction business opportunity in the country. The first product of the JV, the 435 backhoe loader was launched in November 2011. Around 20 dealership nodes have been rolled out (all in south India), while another 25 dealership points are planned this year. The JV has a manufacturing facility in Chennai and an engineering centre in Pune. Total project cost is Rs2bn of which Rs1.5bn has been incurred (ALL’s share Rs610mn). The plant has a scalable capacity of 10,000 units which is expected to be reached by 2017. In the upcoming products, a front wheel loader is expected to hit the market by 2013‐14 while excavators may feature after that.
Optare buses: During 2012, Ashok Leyland increased the stake in Optare plc UK to 75.1% from an earlier 26%. Optare plc UK has a range of low carbon buses with enhanced diesel technology and alternative fuel options. Ashok Leyland being among top five bus manufacturers globally, aims to draw synergies from this partnership by accelerating technology adoption and entering new markets.
Alteams JV: Ashok Leyland entered a 50:50 Joint venture with Alteams Gorup, Finland to manufacture High pressure Die Casting (HPDC) and extruded aluminium products for telecommunication and automotive sectors. AVIA Ashok Leyland Motors: The company has European presence through AVIA Ashok Leyland motors headquartered in Prague. The company produces D‐Line series of trucks in the 6.5‐12 tonne category serving primarily the European markets. The company has plans to increase penetration in Latin America and United states along with launch in India.
Under Leyland‐Deere JV, a backhoe loader has been launched while a front wheel loader and an excavator are expected to be launched in due course
Ashok Leyland
12
Higher production at Pantnagar to cushion margin decline AL’s Pantnagar plant enjoys exemption from central excise duties under the incentive program of Uttarakhand state. AL’s vendors who have set up capacities to supply to the plant also enjoy similar benefits. Under the current scenario, the company gains about Rs60,000 per truck. The current localization is about 70%. AL aims to increase this to 75% over the next couple of years which would translate into incremental savings of approximately Rs10,000 per truck. This is expected to cushion the margins to a certain extent. Production trend at Pantnagar plant
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Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1 FY13
Units
Source: Company, India Infoline Research Inventory management would be critical During Q1 FY13, inventory levels for AL had reached alarming levels owing to production outpacing the sales volumes. However, during June and July 2012, the company took production cuts and corrected the inventory levels. Going ahead, the company has a relatively positive outlook which could possibly result in inventory pile up if production levels are not kept under check. Inventory levels for AL
0
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14,000
Mar‐11
Apr‐11
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Jul‐11
Aug‐11
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Apr‐12
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Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Source: Company, SIAM, India Infoline Research (Computed as FY11 end finished goods inventory from Annual report + monthly production from SIAM – Monthly domestic and export volumes from SIAM)
Excise benefits from Pantnagar to increase if the company is able to increase the localization from 70% to 75% In a weak demand environment managing inventories is a critical aspect
Ashok Leyland
13
Capex and investments in subsidiaries/JVs to restrict cash flows With pressure on margins, decline in volumes and higher working capital requirement, we expect AL to report 38.6% yoy fall in operating cash flows. The company has lined up a capital expenditure plan of Rs4.5bn (brought down from Rs6bn earlier). Additionally, the company plans to invest Rs3.5bn in its JVs and subsidiaries. With operational cash flows not sufficient enough to meet investment requirements we expect the debt levels of the company to increase by Rs5bn over the next couple of years. Sharp cut in our estimates Following a further slowdown in M&HCV demand, we have trimmed our volume assumptions resulting in lowering of revenue estimates for FY13E and FY14E by 2.5% each. With better understanding of the manufacturing and sales arrangement for Dost model between AL and AL‐Nissan JV, we have lowered our OPM assumptions for FY13E and FY14E by 70bps and 130bps respectively. Resultantly, our EPS estimates have been pruned by 20% and 28% respectively. Valuation… some more pain left AL stock price has corrected by 33% since the beginning of this fiscal to factor in the slowdown in M&HCV volumes. The stock now trades at a 1‐yr forward P/E of 11x, higher than its historical average as well its previous down‐cycle multiples. With earnings expected to decline by 21% yoy in FY13, we believe, there is a further scope of correction in valuation and stock price. We downgrade our rating from MP to SELL with a 9‐month price target of Rs18.5 (based on 9x FY14E EPS of Rs2.1).
Lower operating cash flow along with Rs4.5bn capex and Rs3.5bn investment in JVs and subsidiaries will result in higher leverage Lower assumptions for volumes and margins have translated in cut in EPS estimates for FY13E and FY14E by 20% and 28% respectively In spite of steep correction valuations still above historic average and previous downcycle We downgrade to SELL from Market Performer rating
Trading at P/E multiples higher than previous down trend in CV cycle
Current 1‐yr forward P/E multiple higher than historical average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Apr‐05
Oct‐05
Apr‐06
Oct‐06
Apr‐07
Oct‐07
Apr‐08
Oct‐08
Apr‐09
Oct‐09
Apr‐10
Oct‐10
Apr‐11
Oct‐11
Apr‐12
Oct‐12
Apr‐13
CMP 2.4x 6.5x
10.7x 14.8x 19xRs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Apr‐05
Apr‐06
Apr‐07
Apr‐08
Apr‐09
Apr‐10
Apr‐11
Apr‐12
x
Source: Company, Bloomberg, India Infoline Research
Ashok Leyland
14
Financials Income statement Y/e 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Revenue 111,771 128,420 140,099 154,391
Operating profit 12,137 12,561 11,557 13,062
Depreciation (2,674) (3,528) (3,878) (4,128)
Interest expense (1,889) (2,553) (2,798) (2,878)
Other income 445 404 450 500
Profit before tax 8,018 6,884 5,331 6,556
Taxes (1,705) (1,240) (853) (1,049)
Adj. profit 6,313 5,644 4,478 5,507
Exceptional items ‐ 16 ‐ ‐
Net profit 6,313 5,660 4,478 5,507
Balance sheet Y/e 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Equity capital 1,330 2,661 2,661 2,661
Reserves 38,299 39,421 41,582 44,239
Net worth 39,630 42,082 44,242 46,899
Debt 25,683 30,979 34,979 35,979
Deferred tax liab (net) 5,338 4,908 5,000 5,000
Total liabilities 70,650 77,969 84,221 87,878
Fixed assets 49,918 54,617 53,257 53,129
Investments 12,300 15,345 18,845 21,845
Net working capital 6,638 7,723 11,112 12,246
Inventories 22,089 22,306 26,101 28,763
Sundry debtors 11,852 12,302 14,586 16,074
Other current assets 7,979 14,261 15,411 16,983
Sundry creditors (27,074) (31,066) (33,777) (37,223)
Other current liabilities (8,209) (10,082) (11,208) (12,351)
Cash 1,795 284 1,008 659
Total assets 70,650 77,969 84,221 87,878
Cash flow statement Y/e 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Profit before tax 8,018 6,884 5,331 6,556
Depreciation 2,674 3,528 3,878 4,128
Tax paid (1,705) (1,240) (853) (1,049)
Working capital ∆ 14 (1,085) (3,389) (1,134)
Operating cashflow 9,002 8,087 4,967 8,501
Capital expenditure (4,482) (8,228) (2,518) (4,000)
Free cash flow 4,520 (141) 2,449 4,501
Equity raised (279) (115) ‐ ‐
Investments (9,038) (3,045) (3,500) (3,000)
Debt financing/ disposal
3,644 5,296 4,000 1,000
Dividends paid (3,092) (3,092) (2,317) (2,850)
Other items 727 (414) 92 ‐
Net ∆ in cash (3,518) (1,511) 724 (348)
Key ratios Y/e 31 Mar FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Growth matrix (%)
Revenue growth 54.3 14.9 9.1 10.2
Op profit growth 59.1 3.5 (8.0) 13.0
EBIT growth 57.5 (4.8) (13.9) 16.1
Net profit growth 49.0 (10.3) (20.9) 23.0
Profitability ratios (%)
OPM 10.9 9.8 8.2 8.5
EBIT margin 8.9 7.3 5.8 6.1
Net profit margin 5.6 4.4 3.2 3.6
RoCE 14.8 12.7 10.0 11.0
RoNW 16.5 13.8 10.4 12.1
RoA 6.3 5.0 3.6 4.1
Per share ratios
EPS 4.7 2.1 1.7 2.1
Dividend per share 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.9
Cash EPS 6.8 3.4 3.1 3.6
Book value per share 29.8 15.8 16.6 17.6
Valuation ratios
P/E 4.5 10.0 12.6 10.2
P/CEPS 3.1 6.1 6.8 5.9
EV/EBIDTA 4.3 6.9 7.8 7.0
P/BV 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.2
Payout (%)
Dividend payout 49.0 54.8 51.8 51.8
Tax payout 21.3 18.0 16.0 16.0
Liquidity ratios
Debtor days 39 35 38 38
Inventory days 72 63 68 68
Creditor days 88 88 88 88
Leverage ratios
Interest coverage 5.2 3.7 2.9 3.3
Net debt / equity 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
Net debt / op. profit 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.7
Du‐Pont Analysis Y/e 31 Mar FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Tax burden (x) 0.79 0.82 0.84 0.84
Interest burden (x) 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.69
EBIT margin (x) 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06
Asset turnover (x) 1.12 1.14 1.13 1.16
Financial leverage (x) 2.61 2.75 2.88 2.93
RoE (%) 16.5 13.8 10.4 12.1
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:
Buy – Absolute return of over +10%
Market Performer – Absolute return between ‐10% to +10%
Sell – Absolute return below ‐10%
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