Rapid Update Cycle-RUC Rapid Refresh-RR High Resolution Rapid Refresh-HRRR RTMA
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Transcript of Rapid Update Cycle-RUC Rapid Refresh-RR High Resolution Rapid Refresh-HRRR RTMA
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Rapid Update Cycle-RUCRapid Refresh-RR
High Resolution Rapid Refresh-HRRRRTMA
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http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/
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Rapid Update Cycle: RUC (replaced last year)
• A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of off-time or continuous observations (not a 00 and 12 UTC world anymore!)
• Want very good analyses and very good short-term forecasts (1-3-6 hr)
• The RUC ingested and assimilated data hourly, and then makes short-term forecasts
• Used the MAPS mesoscale model…which used a hybrid sigma/isentropic vertical coordinate
• Resolution: 13 km and 50 levels
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Domain
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13km RUC
Terrain elevation - 100 m interval
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Observations used in RUCData Type ~Number Freq.--------------------------------------------------Rawinsonde 80 /12hNOAA profilers 30 / 1hVAD winds 110-130 / 1h Aircraft (V,temp) 1400-4500 / 1hSurface/METAR 1500-1700 / 1hSurface/METAR 1500-1700 / 1hBuoy/ship 100-150 / 1hGOES precip water 1500-3000 / 1hGOES cloud winds 1000-2500 / 1hGOES cloud-top pres 10 km res / 1hSSM/I precip water 1000-4000 / 6h--------------------------------------------------GPS precip water ~300 / 1hMesonet ~5000 / 1hMETAR-cloud-vis-wx ~1500 / 1h--------------------------------------------------
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RUC History – NCEP (NMC) implementations
1994 - First operational implementation of RUC- 60km resolution, 3-h cycle
1998 – 40km resolution, 1-h cycle, - cloud physics, land-sfc model
2002 – 20km resolution- addition of GOES cloud data in assimilation
2003 – Change to 3dVAR analysis from previous OI(April)
2004 – Vertical advection, land use (April)PBL-depth for surface assimilation
(September)
2005 – 13km resolution, new obs, new model physics(June)
2012 – WRF-based Rapid Refresh w/ GSI replacedRUC
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Rapid Refresh
• A new version of RUC has been developed, that uses the WRF model instead of the MAPS model. Called the Rapid Refresh.
• Larger domain
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Rapid Refresh: 13 km but larger domain
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High-Resolution Rapid Refresh: 3 km, 1 hr, smaller domain
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RTMA(Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System)
NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output
and human forecasts.
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RTMA
• Downscales a short-term forecast to fine-resolution terrain and coastlines and then uses observations to produce a fine-resolution analysis.
• Performs a 2-dimensional variational analysis (2d-var) using current surface observations, including mesonets, and scatterometer winds over water, using short-term forecast as first guess.
• Provides estimates of the spatially-varying magnitude of analysis errors
• Also includes hourly Stage II precipitation estimates and Effective Cloud Amount, a GOES derived product
• Either a 5-km or 2.5 km analysis.
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RTMA
• The RTMA depends on a short-term model forecast for a first guess, thus the RTMA is affected by the quality of the model's analysis/forecast system
• CONUS first guess is downscaled from a 1-hour RR forecast.
• Because the RTMA uses mesonet data, which is of highly variable quality due to variations in sensor siting and sensor maintenance, observation quality control strongly affects the analysis.
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Why does NWS want this?
• Gridded verification of their gridded forecasts (NDFD)
• Serve as a mesoscale Analysis of Record (AOR)
• For mesoscale forecasting and studies.
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26RUC-RTMA downscaling to detailed RTMA background
RTMA 2dVAR update
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27RUC-RTMA downscaling to detailed RTMA background
RTMA 2dVAR update
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TX 2 m Temperature Analysis
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TX 2 m Temperature Analysis
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TX 2 m Temperature Increment