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Transcript of Rapid Operations to Contain the Initial Emergence of ... · the Initial Emergence of Pandemic...
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Rapid Operations to Contain the Initial Emergence of
Pandemic Influenza: The WHO Interim Protocol
7 January version
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Overview of the presentationOverview of the presentation
Background and context
Decision making process
Containment strategy
Key activities during containment
Challenges
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Rapid Containment:
Background and Context
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Preparing for Pandemic Influenza: WHO Strategic Action Plan
Preparing for Pandemic Influenza: WHO Strategic Action Plan
Timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted Countries and WHO need to prepare Objectives of WHO Strategic Action Plan
– Prevent viruses with pandemic potential from initiating a pandemic (H5N1 most visible threat)
– Ensure that capacity, research and planning measures are in place to reduce pandemic impact
Rapid containment is one of the Plan’s 5 priority actions
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What is the Rapid Containment Strategy?What is the Rapid Containment Strategy?
STOP the development of pandemic influenzaWhen it is initially detectedBefore the virus spreads more widely
PANDEMICFLU
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Rapid Response:Routine Public Health Action
Rapid Response:Routine Public Health Action
Relies on early detection of cases
Initial local investigation
Standard control measures to prevent further transmission
Notification of national authorities and WHO
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Rapid Containment:Extraordinary Public Health Action
Rapid Containment:Extraordinary Public Health Action
Must be considered if investigation suggests that local outbreak may be the start of a pandemic
Activities designed to stop emerging pandemic– Joint risk assessment by WHO and country– Decision by national authorities in
consultation with WHO– Large scale use of antivirals and non-
pharmaceutical interventions
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Rapid Response and Containment: Continuum of Activities
Rapid Response and Containment: Continuum of Activities
Rapid containment
Situation worsening
100%
0% Rapid response
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IHR considerations for alerting WHOIHR considerations for alerting WHO
Early consultation with WHO is essential – for any suspicious event or early signal – as "Window of opportunity" to launch RC operation is
narrow
Must notify any human influenza cases caused by a new subtype
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Could Containment Work?Could Containment Work?
Never been tried; success cannot be guaranteed
Few options to limit morbidity, mortality and social disruption associated with a pandemic
SARS demonstrated it is possible to mobilize a complex public health operation
Mathematical modelling studies suggest containment might be possible
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Containment is Time Sensitive
Mathematical modelling indicates “window of opportunity” to act is very short
May have ~ 3 weeks to start antivirals and non-pharmaceutical measures after Index Cluster is detected
Detection, investigation and reporting of first cases must happen quickly followed by timely assessment and decision-making
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Containment Protocol: Purpose and Scope
Containment Protocol: Purpose and Scope
Outline “what” should be done
Provide some information about “how” to do it
Serve as a foundation for WHO and countries to build more detailed operational plans
Encourage integration of containment planning into national pandemic preparedness planning
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Rapid Containment:
Decision-Making Process
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Assessment by Country and WHO (1)Assessment by Country and WHO (1)
Virological factors
Laboratory evidence of a novel virus
Epidemiologic factors
Efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission
Clinical severity not important consideration
– Early cases could be “mild”– Later cases could be “severe”
Photo provided by CDC
Photo provided by WHO
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Assessment by Country and WHO (2)Assessment by Country and WHO (2)
Operational and logistical factors
Size of the Index Cluster
Time since first cases became ill
Geographical characteristics of the area (e.g. accessibility, natural boundaries)
Ability to ensure basic infrastructure and essential services
General security situation
Willingness of the country to decide, lead and manage
International resources and support
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Key Questions to Address During Decision-Making
Key Questions to Address During Decision-Making
1. Is there compelling evidence to suggest that a novel influenza virus has gained the ability to spread easily from person to person and initiate and sustain outbreaks in the community?
2. If so, are there compelling reasons why a containment operation should not go forward?
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Decision-Making Process Decision-Making Process
Country reports or verifies outbreak to WHO according to IHR
Country and WHO joint risk assessment determines if RC operation should be launched
Additional field assessments if information is insufficient to make a decision
Country makes ultimate decision to launch, lead and manage
WHO continues to advise, assess, coordinate international assistance
Declaration of a PHEIC is not necessary to launch a RC operation
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When Containment Would Not Be DoneWhen Containment Would Not Be Done
Novel influenza virus could not be confirmed
Not operationally feasible, including for security reasons, to rapidly implement at the necessary level
National authorities do not support the operation
Virus has already spread too far and containment no longer feasible
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Containment Feasible?Location and Number of Cases
Containment Feasible?Location and Number of Cases
•One location
•Limited number of cases
•One location
•Large number of cases
•Multiple locations
•Large number of cases
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Containment Feasible?Setting and Population Density
Containment Feasible?Setting and Population Density
• Rural area
• Low population density
• Urban area
• High population densityPhotos provided by WHO
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Rapid Containment:
How to implement
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Geographic Containment:Index Cluster
Geographic Containment:Index Cluster
Index ClusterIdentify an “Index Cluster” of cases as early as possible
Implement routine control measures
Use antivirals to treat cases and prophylax contacts
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Geographic Containment:Containment Zone
Geographic Containment:Containment Zone
Index Cluster
Containment zone
Create geographically-defined “Containment Zone” to include cases and contacts
Implement perimeter controls
Extensive use of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions
Perimeter controls
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Geographic Containment:Buffer Zone
Geographic Containment:Buffer Zone
Index Cluster
Containment zone
Buffer zone
Define a “Buffer Zone”around the Containment Zone
Where new cases most likely to appear
Implement active and complete surveillance
No movement restriction
Perimeter controlsNo perimeter controls
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How to Determine Size and Shape ofContainment and Buffer Zones
How to Determine Size and Shape ofContainment and Buffer Zones
Known movements and geographical distribution of cases and contacts
Local or national administrative boundaries
Natural boundaries
Infrastructure and essential services (e.g. power, water, food)
Location of healthcare facilities and laboratories
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Rapid Containment:
Activities in the Containment Zone
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Pharmaceutical Interventions in the Containment Zone
Pharmaceutical Interventions in the Containment Zone
All well persons given 20 days of antiviral prophylaxis
Why 20 days?– Increase the time most persons on prophylaxis or
treatment at the same time – Uncertainty about the emerging virus; e.g. possibility of
longer incubation period than seasonal influenza – Packaging considerations – blister pack of 10 tablets
WHO global stockpile of oseltamivir can be used; countries must be ready to receive and distribute
Possible role for vaccine if available
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Getting Antivirals Where They Need to Go In-Country
Getting Antivirals Where They Need to Go In-Country
Who will guarantee expedited clearance through customs
Who will provide security at the airport, during transit or storage
How will antivirals be moved to the site of the outbreak
Who will move them
How will they be distributed and monitored
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Perimeter Controls in the Containment Zone
Perimeter Controls in the Containment Zone
Discourage all non-essential movement of persons as this is where persons are most likely to be infected or exposed
Post signs and other reminders
Establish clear entry and exit points
Perform exit screening (e.g. question travellers, measure temperature, issue certificate)
Ideally, close major air, land and sea transit points in CZ
Allow entry of essential goods and services; provide antiviral prophylaxis for persons who must enter
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Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in the Containment Zone
Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in the Containment Zone
Necessary to reduce the possibility that a non-infected person will come into contact with someone who has influenza and is infectious
Community-wide practice of hand and respiratory hygiene
Use of multiple measures– Isolation of ill persons– Voluntary quarantine of exposed persons– Social distancing measures (e.g. close schools, cancel
mass gatherings)– Other ways to minimize person density (e.g. staggered
work and market hours)
Support needed to reduce impacts (e.g. social, economic)
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Surveillance in the Containment ZoneSurveillance in the Containment Zone
Objectives – Identify and laboratory confirm suspect cases– Monitor the evolution of the outbreak – Evaluate effectiveness of containment operation– Guide decisions to modify, continue or end operation
Strategy– If large number of suspect cases, do active and passive
surveillance and lab confirm only a sample of cases– After antiviral prophylaxis completed, do active and
complete surveillance and lab confirm all cases
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Assess Key Characteristicsof the Novel Virus
Assess Key Characteristicsof the Novel Virus
Population-level – Reproductive number (Ro)– Intergeneration time
Patient-level– Efficacy of antiviral agents for treatment and prophylaxis– Vaccine effectiveness (if used)– Disease severity (e.g. CFR, hospitalization rates)– Spectrum of disease (e.g. asymptomatic cases)– Incubation period
Virus– Resistance to antiviral agents
Photos provided by CDC
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Rapid Containment:
Activities in the Buffer Zone
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Surveillance in the Buffer Zone Surveillance in the Buffer Zone
Objectives – Identify new cases – “leakage” from CZ– Assess if measures in CZ working – Guide decisions to modify (e.g. extend border
of CZ), continue, or end operation
Strategy– Active and complete surveillance to detect all
possible cases– Lab confirmation of ill suspect cases essential
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Management of Suspect Cases and Contacts in the Buffer Zone
Management of Suspect Cases and Contacts in the Buffer Zone
Prompt and aggressive action to eliminate any possible focus of pandemic influenza
Isolate suspect cases and start antiviral therapy (pending viral test results)
Identify household and other close contacts – Place in voluntary home quarantine– Start antiviral prophylaxis
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Perimeter Controls in the Buffer ZonePerimeter Controls in the Buffer Zone
No access into Containment Zone
No restrictions on transit out of Buffer Zone
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Rapid Containment:
Other Key Activities
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Where does communications fit in to containment?
Where does communications fit in to containment?
Supports and integrates all aspects of rapid containment
Organizes and guides information dissemination to persons inside and outside the Containment and Buffer Zones
CommunicationsCommunications
Logistics Logistics SecuritySecurity
SurveillanceSurveillanceLaboratory investigationLaboratory investigation
CONTAINMENT CONTAINMENT COMMUNICATIONSCOMMUNICATIONS
Case managementCase managementInfection controlInfection control
CoCo--ordination ordination and and
ManagementManagement
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Rapid Containment Communications:Objectives
Rapid Containment Communications:Objectives
Provide information that is timely and easily understood
Instill public confidence about containment operation
Convey realistic expectations about stopping a pandemic
Promote compliance with containment measures using culturally-sensitive approaches
Identify and address inaccuracies, rumours
Reduce stigmatization of affected groups
Prepare for possible pandemic if containment does not succeed
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Situation Assessment and Monitoring: What Types of Data Are Needed?
Situation Assessment and Monitoring: What Types of Data Are Needed?
Surveillance/epidemiologic data
Virological data
Compliance with containment measures
Healthcare utilization and capacity
Essential infra-structure needs
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Duration of Containment
Time
Continue for few months
Week 5
Week 4
Week 3
Week 2
Week 1
Surveillance in CZ and BZ
Perimeter controls and NPIs in CZ
Antiviral prophylaxis in
CZ
Containment Activities
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Challenges of Rapid ContainmentChallenges of Rapid Containment
Extraordinary advance planning and coordination by WHO and countries to implement rapidly
Global response to provide necessary human, financial, technical and logistical resources
Clear organizational structure at global and national levels with well-defined roles, responsibilities, chains of communication and the authority
Adherence to ethical principles within a framework of international human rights.