Rainer Münz's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G

Rainer Münz

Paris, February 25, 2015

Global Migration


Yesterday’s and today’s migration

1990 2000 2010 2013

The number of international migrants increases

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population

Where do they come from? Where do they go to?International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, millions

Source: United Nations, Population Division

Magnet societies: EU, Asia, US

20131990

International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn

Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision


Top 10 emigration countriesAbsolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010

Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011

11.4

11.1

8.3

6.6

5.4

4.7

4.7

4.3

4.3

11.9

0 4 8 12

Mexico

India

Russian Federation

China

Ukraine

Bangladesh

Pakistan

United Kingdom

Philippines

Turkey


Top 10 immigration countriesNumber of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010

42.8

12.3

10.8

7.3

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.7

5.5

5.4

0 15 30 45

United States

Russian Federation

Germany

Saudi Arabia

Canada

United Kingdom

Spain

France

Australia

India

Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011

Today most migrants come from middle- and low-income countriesNet migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per

1000)

Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration recedes Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10)

Data Source: UN; Erste Research


Millions of migrants are neither documented and

nor counted in our statitstical data bases


The example of Europe


Source: Eurostat, UN DESA

Net migration in Europe 2001-2009Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants

.

-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%


Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013

Net migration in Europe 2010-2012Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants

.

-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%

Direction changed recently


There are millions of people in need of

protection living in Europe’s neighborhood.Many more than the EU member states will ever

be able and willing to accommodate


Can we project today’s migration pattern into

the future?

1990 2000 2010 2013

The number of international migrants is projected to increase further

2030

Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population


1990 2000 2010 2013


2050

The number of international migrants is projected to increase further

Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population

Net migratory flows to more developed countries1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn

All more developed countries

USA

xx xx

Source: Joel E. Cohen

UNPDestimate

WPP2010projection

Gravity model

Linear model

Even for Europe we do not have good dataEuropean countries with largest net out and in-migration 2005-2009, by source

Rank Country EUROSTAT USCB UNPD WiC1 Romania -904,615 -32,058 -46,342 -100,0002 Lithuania -145,981 -12,801 -166,978 -36,0003 Belarus -145,678 32,671 52,266 -51,0004 Poland -85,558 -88,979 -60,268 55,0005 Latvia -84,549 -25,675 -89,138 -10,0006 Bulgaria -53,329 -135,993 -80,423 -50,0007 Armenia -31,776 -92,399 -139,099 -75,0008 Albania -28,818 -145,067 -170,893 -48,0009 Estonia -17,556 -21,187 -13,612 0

10 Republic of Moldova

-14,854 -196,149 -183,069 -172,000

10 Czech Republic 232,025 255,036 297,005 240,0009 Sweden 249,653 250,997 263,075 265,0008 Belgium 288,023 63,487 342,395 200,0007 Switzerland 301,164 224,792 338,020 182,0006 Turkey 361,867 224,053 -79,266 -49,0005 France 490,483 415,630 593,334 500,0004 Russian

Federation1,055,101 1,479,888 2,471,475 1,135,000

3 Italy 1,364,695 1,747,460 1,993,177 1,999,0002 United

Kingdom1,369,091 961,339 928,982 1,021,000

1 Spain 2,645,920 2,496,953 2,416,659 2,250,000Source: T. Buettner

Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Poland

Source: T. Buettner

Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Niger

Source: T. Buettner

Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Philippines

Source: T. Buettner

Why does it matter?Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010

Per cent

Polynesia -45Micronesia -21Caribbean -14Central America -10Central Asia -8Northern Africa -6Western Africa -4Melanesia -4South-Central Asia -3Southern Asia -3Eastern Africa -2Middle Africa -2South-Eastern Asia -2South America -2Eastern Asia -1Southern Africa 1Eastern Europe 2Western Asia 3Southern Europe 8Western Europe 10Northern Europe 16Northern America 20Australia/New Zealand 36

Source: Francois Pelletier


Thank you for your attention!

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Rainer Münz's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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