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    January 2008

    RenteDykTM The new boy in class

    8. January 2008 Claus Madsen

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    Definition

    The Components:

    Coupon is a function of the 10Y CMS (Constant Maturity Swap) rate + a

    fixed spread A sold Ratchet cap on the 10Y CMS rate

    A sold Bermuda call option with a strike equal to 105

    The future coupon can only fall never rise! Structures with similar

    characteristics as RenteDykTM are usually referred to as One-Way-Floaters

    Bermudan options are a well known product but what is a Ratchet? see

    next slide....

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    What is a Ratchet cap?

    A Ratchet option (sometimes called a Reset option or Cliquet option) is a series of

    consecutive forward starting options. The first is active immediately, the second

    becomes active when the first one expires etc. Each option is struck at-the-money

    when it becomes active that is the future strikes are stochastic!

    Ratchet features can be incorporated into other structures like for example

    RenteDykTM. (They are frequently encountered in structured equity products)

    The payoff from a Ratchet Cap can be expressed as:

    This implies that C(T) can be expressed as (assuming a zero spread):

    ( ) [ ( ) ( ), 0]TPayoff T t Max R T C t =

    ( ) ( ) [ ( ), ( )]C T T t Min R T C t =

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    Valuation of Ratchet Options - I

    For the valuation of Cliquet Options (the terminology normally used in

    the equity market) we have the following methods available:

    (European Style Cliquet Option) Closed form solution due to Rubenstein

    (1991) - price as a series of forward-starting options. More sophisticated

    techniques where the future strike only change if at the reset date the

    stock price is below/above (put/call) can be handled by the method ofGray and Whaley (1999)

    A more general approach is the binomial pricing method from Huag and

    Haug (2001), which relies on the CRR binomial model

    Monte Carlo simulation is however the most natural approach for the

    pricing of Cliquet Options, due to the path-dependency embedded in the

    determination of the future strike levels

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    Valuation of Ratchet Options - II

    For Rachet Options (now we are back in the interest-rate world!) the

    complexity is somewhat greater when it comes to valuation - analytical

    formulas are hard to come by even in simple cases!). Therefore, forRatchet Options we would in general need some kind of numerical

    method and the natural pricing methodology to choose is Monte Carlo

    Simulation

    However a finite difference method can also be used by adding an extra

    state-variable

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    Visualizing the stochastic property ofthe future strike levels

    10-Year DKK Swap-Rate

    (Init Coupon 4.725%, Fixing 2 times a year 30.12 and 30.6)

    3.00%

    3.50%

    4.00%

    4.50%

    5.00%

    5.50%

    6.00%

    6.50%

    7.00%

    31-12-

    1998

    31-12-

    1999

    31-12-

    2000

    31-12-

    2001

    31-12-

    2002

    31-12-

    2003

    31-12-

    2004

    31-12-

    2005

    31-12-

    2006

    Dates

    Swap-Rate/Coupon

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    Valuation of Ratchet Options - III

    For this particular type of Ratchet Cap embedded in RenteDykTM we

    have the following additional issues:

    We need a 2-factor model, due to the fact that the short-rate and the

    10Y CMS Rate are not 100% correlated see next slide....

    We need to take into account the volatility for At-The-Money Swaptions

    and over time volatility for Out-Of-The-Money Swaptions due to the

    fact that we expect to have an increased exposure to lower and lower

    strike levels as time goes - Volatility Smile dependency!

    These 2 factors clearly add complexity to the pricing of RenteDykTM

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    Correlation betweenThe Short-Rate and The 10-CMS Rate (avg Corr: 0.79)

    Correlation Structure

    (180 days rolling Correlation)

    1.50%

    2.50%

    3.50%

    4.50%

    5.50%

    6.50%

    7.50%

    31-12-

    1998

    31-12-

    1999

    31-12-

    2000

    31-12-

    2001

    31-12-

    2002

    31-12-

    2003

    31-12-

    2004

    31-12-

    2005

    31-12-

    2006

    Dates

    Swap-Rate

    -1.0000-0.8000-0.6000-0.4000

    -0.20000.00000.20000.40000.6000

    0.80001.0000

    Correlation

    Short-Rate 10-Year Swap Correlation

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    The Pricing of RenteDykTM

    What Interest Rate Model to choose?

    In this case it is natural to use the Libor Market Model as it is straightforward to

    extend to multiple factors more precisely the Extended Libor Market Model.

    Extended, as we need to include the Volatility Smile. Candidates are for example:

    The CEV version of Andersen and Andreasen (2000) Alternatively the

    Displaced Diffusion version (Rebonato (2001))

    Lognormal-Mixture Model of Brigo and Mercurio (2000)

    The stochastic-Volatility model of Andersen and Brotherton-Ratcliffe (2001) The SABR model of Hagan, Kumar, Lesniewski and Woodward (2002)

    A short-rate model is not the obvious choice let us however still pursue that

    possibility for the following practical reasons: Speed of calculation, comparison

    with other mortgage bonds which normally are valued using a 1-factor short-rate model - simplicity and therefore transparency

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    The Pricing of RenteDykTM Short-Rate Models - I

    The most popular short-rate model in the market is the Hull-White model:

    Our Hull-White implementation for RenteDykTM is a Monte-Carlo based pricing

    method the standard seems to be a lattice implementation, this (interesting)

    discussion will however not be pursued here....

    A few interesting issues for the Hull-White models implication for the volatility

    sensitivity and for volatility smiles will be given here....

    Some stylized facts 1: The Hull-White model has that property that there is a negative correlation

    between (caplet) volatility and interest rates (a desirable feature) i.e. the

    (caplet) volatility increases when rates are falling, the reason being that we

    have the following formula:

    This effect is shown on the next slide....

    1 11

    (0, , )T Caplet

    ev

    F T T

    +

    +

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    Implied Vol Sensitivity for the Hull-White Model

    This figure illustrates this effect which is obviously more pronounced for shorter

    maturity Caplets than for longer maturity Caplets

    Hint: Black Caplet Vols are given as decimals

    1

    3

    5

    7

    9

    0

    0,1

    0,2

    0,3

    0,4

    0,5

    BlackCapletVol

    YC-Shifts

    Black Caplet Vol implied from HW Model

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    The Pricing of RenteDykTM Short-Rate Models - II

    Some stylized facts 2:

    Embedded in the Hull-White model is a volatility smile in the implied Black

    Caplet volatility

    This smile is however not changeable with a different parameterization of theHull-White model as there is no direct control over it it is embedded in the

    model

    In general the slope of this embedded Black volatility smile is small compared

    to the market

    There can exist cases where it is not possible to imply a Black CapletVolatility given the price obtained from the Hull-White Model the HW price

    is unattainable! (this happens for high values of in the Hull-White Model)

    We also have that smirks are not possible in the Hull-White Model

    This feature is shown on the next slide....

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    Implied Volatility Surface for the Hull-White Model

    1

    3

    5

    7

    9

    0,1

    0,15

    0,2

    0,25

    0,3

    0,35

    -300-250-200-150 -100 -500 50 100 150 200 250 300

    Black

    CapletVol

    Change in Strike-Level

    Black Caplet Implied Vol-Surface from HW

    Model

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    The Pricing of RenteDykTM Short-Rate Models - III

    We can now list the following issues connected with using a 1-Factor model moreprecisely the Hull-White Model:

    Even though the model embeds the (desirable) feature that (Black) volatilityrises when rates falls we have limited control over it, the relative slope isnearly constant for all parameterizations. A slightly higher relative slope canthough be observed for short maturities and for mean-reversion => 0

    It is not possible to fit the ATM humped Cap Volatility curve as only smallhumps are normally observable. A large hump is only possible in case the YC isdecreasing which is not the norm...

    The embedded volatility smile in the Hull-White model has a too small slope the relative slope is approximately constant across different parameterizations

    There can exist cases where it is not possible to Imply a Black Caplet Volatility given the price obtained from the Hull-White Model the HW price isunattainable! (happens for high values of in the Hull-White Model)

    Smirks are not possible in the Hull-White Model

    As it is a one-factor model the 10-year rate will be a deterministic function ofthe short-rate

    Hint: When using a simpler model than theoretically is required knowing the

    limitations is necessary...

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    Risk-Measures....

    We will here look at 3 issues:

    The distribution of Ratchet prices across the maturity spectrum

    On slide 16 it can be seen that the most of the value of the Ratchet

    Option embedded in RenteDykTM is located around the 10-year

    maturity point...

    The delta-vectors

    On slide 17 the distribution of sensitivies across the maturity

    spectrum Key-Rate sensitivities are shown

    The stability of duration measures for different increments

    On slide 18 it is obvious that duration is a function of the

    increment, that is duration is scale dependent!

    Besides that we will from a theoretically point discuss the stability of duration

    measures over time

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    Ratchet Price Distribution

    Distribution of Ratchet Value

    0

    2040

    60

    80

    100

    120

    0.00

    2.00

    4.00

    6.00

    7.99

    9.99

    12.00

    14.01

    15.99

    18.00

    20.01

    22.00

    23.99

    26.01

    28.00

    30.00

    Dates

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

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    Delta Vectors Distribution of Sensitivities

    DV for RenteDyk

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    0.01

    1.00

    2.00

    5.00

    8.00

    10.00

    13.00

    15.00

    20.00

    30.00

    40.00

    Maturity

    Absolute

    Sensitivities

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    1818

    Duration as a function of the Increment. Unit = 100 Bp

    Duration Sensitivity

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

    Increment

    Du

    ration

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    Risk-Measures The nature of Ratchet Options

    Wilmott (2002) highlights the danger of volatility risk in Rathets, as it can be

    shown that the gamma of a Cliquet option is the sum of gamma values for regular

    options because the gamma of a forward-starting option is zero before starting

    time. This may create the impression that risk-management is easy in this case.However, for this type of option, hedging can be quite complex because delta,

    vega and gamma have discontinuities around reset times!

    The above entails the following:

    Even under a stable interest-rate environment, risk-measures will behave erratic

    as we are getting nearer and nearer to the fixing-date and risk-measures will

    be discontinous as we pass the fixing-date!

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    Some closing remarks on Risk-Measures for RenteDykTM

    1-order Risk-Measures are scale dependent, i.e. it is a function of the selected

    increment

    Risk-Measures (duration and convexity) will even under a stable interest rateenvironment behave erratic as we are getting nearer and nearer to the fixing-date

    and risk-measures will be discontinous as we pass the fixing-date

    Risk-Measures are discontinous around the fixing-dates

    Vega is remarkably higher than for Capped-Floaters

    Delta-Vectors in general it can be said that the sum of the Delta-Vectors is not

    equal to OAS-Price Risk. That is DVs for RenteDykTM (only) indicate/highlight the

    relative importance of a shift at different parts of the curve

    So lets be careful out there...