RA Framework. Risk Assessment ‘Area of concern’… Every risk assessment has a geographic...
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Transcript of RA Framework. Risk Assessment ‘Area of concern’… Every risk assessment has a geographic...
RAFramework
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
RiskAssessment
‘Area of concern’… Every risk assessment has a geographic
dimension
You need to explicitly identify the geographic area for which the assessment pertains must be clearly defined
Big enough, but not too big
Case studies’ experience…
Area of concern
ESBW Case Study – area of concern
Province of Quebec But…
UAF 09-751 opportunity to be more quantitative satisfy DSS evaluation goal
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
RiskAssessment
Quick assessment (elements of a full assessment but done in less detail)
Determines whether immediate action is needed or whether the full assessment should continue
Requires relatively little information Likelihood and impacts – but quick & dirty
Pre-assessment
Does the pest meet the criteria for a quarantine pest? What is the potential for the pest to be associated with the
commodity or pathway? What is the potential impact of the pest? How likely is introduction and establishment of the pest if
no mitigation measures are applied to the pathway(s)?
Pre-assessment – for IAS
A pest of potential economic importance to the area endangered thereby and not yet present there, or present but not widely distributed and being officially controlled [ISPM No. 5, 2006]
Quarantine Pest
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
RiskAssessment
Risk Assessment What bad thing could happen?
Categorizing the pest How likely is it to happen?
Potential introduction & spread How bad will it be?
Potential economic & environmental effects
Risk Risk = Likelihood X Consequences
Likelihood Potential Probability
Quantitative or qualitative Relative possibility of the event
Risk Risk = Likelihood X Consequences
Economic and environmental impacts Effects Consequences
Quantitative or qualitative Relative magnitude of the event
Risk Risk = Likelihood X Consequences
Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments
Qualitative pest risk assessments: Non-numerical terms Descriptive words Highly adaptable Most commonly used method
Challenge to be consistent & use terms that are interpreted consistently by others
“The pest is highly likely to be present on conifer seedlings imported from ….”
“The pest is expected to have negligible effects on market sales”
“Outbreaks will be as frequent and serious as outbreaks of the native pest….”
Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments
Quantitative pest risk assessments: Numerical terms Measurable Assigns values to variables Programs for modelling likelihood
or impacts (e.g., @Risk, Crystal Ball, ModelRisk)
Challenge to obtain data or defend selection of values for variables
“The pest is expected to be present at detectable levels in 99 seed shipments out of 100”
“There is an 85% chance of losses equalling or exceeding 1.2 million m3 of softwood growing stock per annum”
“Outbreaks are projected to occur once in every 50 years 95 times out of 100”
Choosing the right methods
Each method has pros & cons May use a combination of methods to address different parts of the
assessment Quantitative to assess likelihood along different pathways Qualitative to assess impacts
Method selected depends on many variables Urgency of the issue Seriousness of the issue Availability of resources & expertise Availability of data Needs of the NPPO Sensitivity of the issue
Focus this week will be on qualitative pest risk assessment
Likelihood of occurrence…
Native: outbreak Alien: establishment
Pest
Host (Habitat)
Environment(Ecosystem)
Perpetuation, for the foreseeable future, of a pest within an area after entry (ISPM 5, 2007)
Alien: establishment
Likelihood of occurrence…
Collect information from area(s) where pest occurs & in area of concern Pest information Environment information Host information
Compare Assess probability of establishment
Probability of establishment
Likelihood of occurrence…
Availability of suitable hosts, alternate hosts and vectors
Suitability of environment, including biotic & abiotic factors
Control measures Other characteristics affecting probability of
establishment
Factors to consider…
Likelihood of occurrence…
Are hosts & alternates present? Are habitats available for pest plants? How likely is the pest to find hosts? Are they
abundant? Are hosts present in the vicinity of expected entry
points?
Host information
Likelihood of occurrence…
Is the pest adaptable? Has it established/reached OB in other areas? Can it adapt to different climatic or other
environmental factors? Can the pest seek out hosts? Is it mobile?
Pest information
Likelihood of occurrence…
How does the pest reproduce? Does it have a high reproductive capacity?
How does it survive adverse conditions? Does it require an alternate host or a vector?
Pest information
Likelihood of occurrence…
Is a vector required for dispersal of the pest? Is it present in the area of concern? Is it likely to be introduced? Are other potential vectors available?
Dispersal & spread
Local and long-distance dispersal Is it likely to get to the area of concern? Effects of weather & landscape Pop’n growth rates
Likelihood of occurrence…
Does the climate in the area of concern differ from that where the pest occurs? How?
What climatic factors are critical for the pest’s success? What climatic factors, if any, are limiting?
Is the climate suitable for the pest? Will it be able to survive? Will it be able to reproduce?
Climate information
Likelihood of occurrence…
Climate information
Precipitation Rain, snow, fog ….
Temperature Seasonal highs and lows, temperature extremes
… Seasonal variation
Likelihood of occurrence…
Other environmental information
Soil Hydrology Vegetation Prevailing winds Day length Species interactions
Likelihood of occurrence…
Cultural practices or Control measures
Would existing practices mitigate risk? Are there any pest control programs or natural
enemies already in the area of concern?
Likelihood of occurrence…
Probability of Spread
Means of spread How?
Rate of spread How fast?
Magnitude of spread How far?
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Rate and Magnitude of Spread
Probability of spread influences Scale of potential impacts Urgency of potential responses Survey design Potential success of any future control or
eradication program
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment Biology of the pest Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Production / harvesting practices Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment Biology of the pest Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers √ Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers √ Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers √ Intended end use of the commodity √ Vectors Natural enemies √ History elsewhere
Factors influencing spread
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Using the Gypsy Moth experience to predict behaviour of other species
Predicting spread of related or similar organisms Species X is expected to behave much as did Gypsy moth, e.g.,
another Lymantria species such as nun moth
Comparison with dissimilar organisms Species Y will spread faster & further than Gypsy moth, e.g., a rust
of field crops Species Z will spread more slowly & less far than Gypsy moth,
e.g., a root-feeding nematode
Likelihood of occurrence…
Looking back is easy Understand why spread occurred as it did
Pest risk assessment looks forward Much more challenging
Likelihood of occurrence…
Comparative analysis qualitative
Predictive Models semi-quantitative or quantitative
Useful information sources Case histories of comparable pests Assessments and information from areas
where the pest is present Life history information Site information Expert opinion
How to assess spread
Likelihood of occurrence…
Model Types Spatial or temporal models Quantitative or qualitative models
Selecting a model Fit for purpose Scale & time are important
Challenges Subjectivity in selection of parameters Lack of or contradictory data Difficult to validate
Spread Models
Likelihood of occurrence…
Spread Potential
Means of spread How?
Rate of spread How fast?
Magnitude of spread How far?
Life history Area of origin factors PRA Area factors Human factors
Compare to other pests Compare to other places
CFIA-ACIA
Likelihood of occurrence…
Assessing potential economic impact
Determine pest impact in regions where pest occurs already note whether the pest causes major, minor or no
damage whether the pest causes damage frequently or
infrequently relate this, if possible, to biotic and abiotic effects
Consequences…
Assessing potential economic impact
Use information from where pest occurs and compare with that in the PRA area
Assess potential for economic importance Qualitative, expert judgement Quantitative, biological & economic techniques/
models
Consequences…
Identifying pest effects
Direct effects Longevity, viability of host plants
Yield, quality
Indirect effects Market effects, environmental effects and social effects
Consequences…
Direct pest effects
Value of the known or potential host plants in RA area
Types, amount and frequency of damage reported in areas where pest is present
Losses reported in areas where pest is present
Biotic factors affecting damage and losses
Consequences…
Direct pest effects
Abiotic factors affecting damage and losses
Rate of spread
Rate of reproduction
Control measures, their efficacy and cost
Effect of existing production practices
Environmental effects
Consequences…
Indirect pest effects
Effects on domestic and export markets, including effects on export market access
Changes to producer costs or input demands
Changes to domestic or foreign consumer demand for a product resulting from quality changes
Environmental and other undesired effect of control measures
Consequences…
Indirect pest effects
Capacity to act as a vector for other pests
Feasibility and cost of eradication and containment
Resources needed for additional research and advice
Environmental effects
Social and other effects
Consequences…
Economic impact matrix
Market Impacts Non-Market Impacts
Direct Pest Effects
Commercial cropsTimber productsControl costs
Urban ornamentalWildlife habitat
Indirect Pest Effects
Trade Tourism
Nutrient cycleHydrology
Consequences…
Analysis of economic consequences
Time and place factors
Analysis of commercial consequences
Environmental and social consequences
Consequences…
Time and place factors
Economic consequences are expressed over a period of time - possible lag between establishment and expression of consequences
Consequences can change over time
Distribution of pest occurrences
The rate and manner of spread
May use expert judgment and estimations
Consequences…
Impacts over time
0102030405060708090
100
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time
Imp
act
Exports affected Non export commodity Environmental impacts
Consequences…
Analysis of commercial consequences
Important to consider effect of pest-induced changes on: Producer profits resulting from changes in
production costs, yields and prices Crop losses or crop failure resulting in loss of
customers Quantities demanded or prices paid for
commodities by domestic and international customers
Consequences…
Environmental impacts
Direct environmental effects Loss of keystone species
Loss of threatened/endangered species
Decrease in range/viability of keystone species
Decrease in range/viability of threatened/endangered species
Consequences…
Environmental impacts
Indirect environmental effects Changes in habitat composition
Loss of habitat or nourishment for wildlife
Changes in soil structure or water table
Changes in ecosystem processes
Impacts of risk management options
Consequences…
Environmental impact: tree death
CFIA-ACIA
Consequences…
Social consequences
Social effects Loss of employment
Migration
Reduction in property values
Loss of tourism
Reduction or loss of availability of traditional plants for cultural purposes
Human health risks
Consequences…
Challenges
INFORMATION Resources
Biological data Financial & Economic
data Tools
Biological models Financial & Economic
models
TECHNIQUES Economists & biologists
working together Assessing impacts with little
information Quantifying environmental
impacts Scaling up from local to
national impacts Modelling changes in impacts
over time
Consequences…
RiskAssessment
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Case studies’ experience…
Exceeds threshold?
RiskAssessment
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Evidence: Knowledge Synthesis
Review of published research
Data on status of pest in area & other areas
Historic data
Expert opinion
Expert Opinion
Case studies’ experience…
Knowledge synthesis
RiskAssessment
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Case studies’ experience…
Quantification -- ESBW
Setting up the SBW DSS in Quebec UAF 09-751 Quantify scenarios for ESBW Explore the utility of the DSS for MRNQ
A
A
A
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
Pattern 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
Pattern 2
Pattern 3 Pattern 4
A B
C D
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
C
D D
D
D
D
D
D D
D
D
D
Protection Planning System (PROPS) Implementation for Quebec Forest 097-51
Forest Stand Attributes:GR_ESSCL_DRAICL_AGEClimate
Harvest Schedule
Forest
Mgmt.
Plan
ID
123456
Spruce/fir Volume (m3/ha)
5 10 15 20 25 30 3515 17 21 25 32 47 60
50 54 64 76 87 95 115
85 97 112 135 148 156 169
104 120 135 154 176 180 195
35 53 64 76 87 98 125
65 80 98 115 134 152 175
86 BIC’s for QuebecForest 097-51
Spatial Forest Inventory
Vo l
ume
Time
Woodstock Yield Curves
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200 250
Total Volume
White Birch
Poplar
Spruce Fir
IDVOLHARV File
ID = 4 BIC = 1I21
HARVEST = 3
AREA = 25
DEFOL2005 = 10 .
DEFOL2006 = 10 .
DEFOL2019 = 20
Standhistory File
PROTECTIONPRIORITY
CALCULATION
Cedric Type Maturity Climate Site # of PSP’s
1 I 2 1 4
2 2
3 1 1
M 2 1 15
2 1
3 1 1
O 2 1 3
3 1 23
2 5
2 I 2 1 4
2 2
3 1 4
M 1 1 2
2 1 55
2 11
3 1 21
O 2 1 6
2 3
3 1 62
2 9
3 I 1 3 1
2 1 15
2 7
3 2
3 1 2
M 1 1 2
2 1
3 3
2 1 70
2 15
3 12
3 1 154
2 11
O 2 1 29
ID = 4 BIC = 1I21
HARVEST = 3 AREA = 25
DEFOL2005 = 10 .
DEFOL2006 = 10 .
DEFOL2019 = 20
CUM. DEF1 = 70
Standhistory File
ArcGIS
Harvest
Defoliation
Annual Update
CUM. DEF2 = 50
PRIORITY = 69
+ +
Cedric’s ForestType Grouping
+
Site
CODE NOM_OFF Site Class 0 Excessif 1 10 Rapide avec aucun modificateur 1 11 Rapide avec drainage latéral 1 12 Rapide avec horizon gelé 1 13 Rapide avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 1 14 Rapide avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 1 16 Complexe [1] 20 Bon avec avec aucun modificateur 1 21 Bon avec drainage latéral 1 22 Bon avec horizon gelé 1 23 Bon avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 1 24 Bon avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 1 30 Modéré avec aucun modificateur 1 31 Modéré avec drainage latéral 2 32 Modéré avec horizon gelé 1 33 Modéré avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 1 34 Modéré avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 1 40 Imparfait avec aucun modificateur 2 41 Imparfait avec drainage latéral 2 42 Imparfait avec horizon gelé 2 43 Imparfait avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 2 44 Imparfait avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 2 50 Mauvais avec aucun modificateur 3 51 Mauvais avec drainage latéral 3 52 Mauvais avec horizon gelé 3 53 Mauvais avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 3 54 Mauvais avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 3 60 Très mauvais avec aucun modificateur 3 61 Très mauvais avec drainage latéral 3 62 Très mauvais avec horizon gelé 3 63 Très mauvais avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 3
64 Très mauvais avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique
3
1= Dry2= Moist3 = Wet
Maturity
I = Immature (<40 years)M= Mature (40 – 100 years)O = Overmature (100+ years)
Climate(Bio-climate domains)
1 = Black spruce-Moss (6)2= Balsam fir-White birch (5)
Forest Stand Groups Stand Group - french Stand Group - english Code
Sapinières pures Pure Balsam Fir 1 Sapinières à feuillus ou à résineux Balsam fir stand with deciduous or conifers 2 Résineux non susceptibles Non-susceptible conifers 3 Peuplements à sapin Deciduous or conifers stand with Balsam fir 4 Pessières blanches Pure White spruce 5 Mélangés non susceptibles Non-susceptible mixed stand 6 Tendance résineuse Mixedwood dominated by conifers 7 Tendance feuillue Mixedwood dominated by deciduous 8 Feuillus Deciduous 9
BIC Assignment
LOCALIS.DBF
ETUDARBR.DBF
TIGES.DBF
PCARORIG.DBF
TSP Database
Species Comp (yields)OR
Forest Stand Type (GR_ESS)
Cedric Type Maturity Climate Site # of PSP’s
1 I 2 1 4
2 2
3 1 1
M 2 1 15
2 1
3 1 1
O 2 1 3
3 1 23
2 5
2 I 2 1 4
2 2
3 1 4
M 1 1 2
2 1 55
2 11
3 1 21
O 2 1 6
2 3
3 1 62
2 9
3 I 1 3 1
2 1 15
2 7
3 2
3 1 2
M 1 1 2
2 1
3 3
2 1 70
2 15
3 12
3 1 154
2 11
O 2 1 29
BIC Assignment
Period 3
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
1 2 3 4 5
Scenario
To
tal V
ol L
oss
(m
3)
Mortality (m3)
Growth Loss (m3)
UAF 097-51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
Pattern 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Year
Def
olia
tio
n (
%)
Pattern 2
Pattern 3 Pattern 4
1 2
3 4
Informing the RA
Likelihood of occurrence
Magnitude of effects (consequences)
`Relative` effects for alternative scenarios
Response strategies
Alter expected defoliation Alter species, age, etc. of stands
Quantifying the risk…
RiskAssessment
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is inherent to risk analysis for pests Using historical data to predict the future Using data from one area to predict behaviour in
another
Complete information is rarely available
Uncertainty
Identifying uncertainty Reducing uncertainty Documenting uncertainty
Identifying uncertainty
Sources of uncertainty include: Incomplete data Inconsistent or conflicting data Imprecision or variability in data Flaws in methodology Subjective judgement Lack of expertise
Sources of uncertainty Data
Missing, inconsistent, conflicting, imprecise Judgement
Subjective, time-limited, expertise-limited Methodology
Undeveloped, untested, inconsistent, not repeatable, pathways not considered or described inappropriately
Other Pest & human behaviour, random events, unexpected events,
complexity of biological systems
Reducing uncertainty Collect more data Validate data with observations Statistical analysis Research Use original sources Expert consultation / peer review
Degree of uncertaintyRating Uncertainty
Very high Little or no information – “Best guess”
High
Moderate
Low
Very low Extensive, peer-reviewed information
Documenting uncertainty Documenting uncertainty contributes to transparency
Define terms Describe all plausible scenarios State assumptions
Use your judgement Experience brings confidence
Uncertainty table
Element Rank Uncertainty
Probability of Entry High Low
Probability of Establishment
Probability of Spread
Direct Consequences Low High
Indirect Consequences
Overall Risk
Conclusion
Uncertainty is an inherent part risk analysis Documenting uncertainties and assumptions in
RA is a part of being transparent
Case studies’ experience…
Uncertainty
RiskAssessment
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Overall assessment of risk
Combines the likelihood of pest introduction with the consequences of that introduction
“Without any mitigation measures, the pest is likely to be present on (host) from (origin) and to be able to survive transport and reach suitable hosts such as …. which are widely distributed in the PRA area”
Overall assessment of risk
Combines the likelihood of pest introduction with the consequences of that introduction
“Without any mitigation measures, the pest is likely to be present on (host) from (origin) and to be able to survive transport and reach suitable hosts such as …. which are widely distributed in the PRA area and could cause yield losses of up to 15% during a severe outbreak”
Overall assessment of risk
“Although the pest can spread (be introduced – enter and establish) from neighbouring country ….. impacts are likely to be very low”
Improvement
Overall assessment of risk
“Although the pest can spread (be introduced – enter and establish) from neighbouring country ….. impacts are likely to be very low”
Improvement
“Although the pest is very likely to spread (be introduced – enter and establish) from neighbouring country ….. impacts are likely be very low”
Overall assessment of risk
Summarise using words Advantages
Disadvantages
Alternative approach?
Summarizing aspects of the assessment
Word scale
Likelihood Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
Summarizing aspects of the assessment
Word scale
Impact Negligible
Low
Medium
High
Risk matrixHigh
Medium
Low
Negligible
Negligible Low Medium High
Likelihood of introduction
Imp
act
Risk matrixHigh
Medium
Low
Negligible
Negligible Low Medium High
Likelihood of introduction
Imp
act
Summary
Part of the pest risk assessment process Qualitative descriptions - free text Qualitative descriptions – word scales Summarising aspects of risk assessment Combining likelihood and impact
Summarising the summary! Characterizing the risk
RiskAssessment
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?
RAFramework
Trigger / Threat
-pest-commodity
-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard
-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk
Identify stakeholders
Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold
-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity
Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts
Risk > Tolerance Threshold?
Action Required
maybe
Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?
Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring
-research synthesis
Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?
Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors
-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs
-identify knowledge uncertainties
Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence
-identify research needs
maybe
no
yes
Risk Assessment Peer Review
Research-monitor pest impacts
-monitor problem context-revise risk functions
RISK ASSESSMENT
No RemedialAction
Identify Response Options-No response
-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;
exposure to impact, etc.)
Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits
-Public appetite for response?
Public/AboriginalConsultation
-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys
BalancedDecision
(Risk Management Strategy)
Available $$ forResponse
Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest
management plans, etc.-Control program logistics
Detailed PopulationSurveys
Up-to-Date Damage Assessments
no
yes
RISK RESPONSE
Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points
-form council upon identification of trigger/threat
-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities
-commitment to respond
New ControlOptions / Products
Decision Support
Tools
INNOVATION
EnhancedMonitoring &
ForecastingTools
RISK COMMUNICATION
Pest Fact SheetRisk Management
DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)
Media ReleasesRisk Assessment
Document / Summary
Revise Risk Assessment
Prioritize ResearchNeeds
Monitor-Objectives Achieved?
-Within Budget?