R4 Rural Resilience InitiativeQuarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013

Contentsexecutive summary 1

r4 rural resilience in ethiopia: Summary Findings of HarIta Impact evaluation (2009-2012) 3

r4 rural resilience in Senegal: 2013 end-of-Season assessment 7

Status summary 11

accomplishments this quarter 13

Conclusion 15

appendix I: r4 partners and institutional roles 16

appendix II: rural resilience event series 18

appendix III: Media citations and resources 19

Cover: Medhin reda prepares to serve injera, in adi Ha, in the tigray region of ethiopia. She is a participant of the r4 program in her community.Injera is ethiopia’s staple meal made from teff. Eva-Lotta Jansson / Oxfam America

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the r4 rural resilience Initiative, r4 in short, is a strategicpartnership between oxfam america and the uN World Foodprogramme. Initiated in 2010 to respond to the challenges facedby food-insecure communities in face of increasing frequency andintensity of climate disasters and other shocks, r4 completed itsthird year of implementation this quarter. the program builds onthe initial success of HarIta (Horn of africa risk transfer foradaptation), an integrated risk management frameworkdeveloped by oxfam america, the relief Society of tigray (reSt),ethiopian farmers and several other national and global partners.1

r4 refers to the four risk management strategies that theinitiative integrates to enable farmers to strengthen thecommunities’ food and income security through a combination ofimproved resource management (risk reduction), insurance (risktransfer), microcredit (prudent risk taking), and savings (riskreserves). r4 has successfully expanded HarIta in ethiopia andhas piloted the implementation in Senegal.

In ethiopia, in the 2013 agricultural season, r4 exceeded its goalof reaching 19,000 farmers by successfully extending its insurance

exeCutive summary

a farmer plants rice seedlings in the Senegalese village of Koussanar.Aliou Bassoum / Oxfam America

1. See appendix I: ‘r4 partners and institutional roles’ for full list of r4 partnersand institutional roles.

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services to more than 20,000 households in 80 villages2 includinga pilot village in a new region - amhara. at the end of the 2013agricultural season, indices were verified and checked for payoutsacross all 80 villages. Farmers in 13 villages received a share of$27,138 (461,351 Birr) in payouts this season. In 21 villages,farmers reported a shortage of rainfall where indices did nottrigger payouts. these reports are now being investigated, toinform improvements in the system and reducing basis risk forthe next season. reSt continues to implement r4 in tigray, andthe amhara pilot is being implemented in partnership with theorganization for rehabilitation and Development in amhara(orDa). this quarter also marked the completion of the HarItaimpact evaluation study for the period 2009-2012.

In Senegal, r4 was successfully piloted during the 2013agricultural season in 12 villages in the communauté rurale deKoussanar3 covering 500 households. this quarter, an end-of-season assessment was conducted by Columbia university’sInternational research Institute for Climate and Society (IrI) togauge the performance of the prototype weather index for cropinsurance tested in a dry run during 2013. the results of thisstudy will feed into the 2014 scale up. In this report, we present key findings of the HarIta Impactevaluation study in ethiopia for the period 2009-2012, and theresults of the end-of-season assessment conducted in Senegal forthe 2013 pilot implementation, and share key accomplishmentsduring the october–December 2013 quarter.

2. In the ethiopian context, this report uses the word “village” to refer to theethiopian term tabia, or subdistrict. Tabia is the tigrigna language name forkebele, that is, the smallest administrative unit of the ethiopian federalgovernment (uN emergency unit for ethiopia, 2003). ethiopia’s administrativestructure follows: region (e.g., tigray) > zone (e.g., eastern tigray) >woreda/district (e.g., Kola tembien) > tabia/subdistrict (e.g., adi Ha) > kushet.

3. a communauté rurale, or rural community, is the smallest sub-regionaladministrative unit in Senegal; it consists of a group of villages.

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BaCKGrounDFarmers in developing countries are increasingly vulnerable torisks posed by weather and climate. Droughts can reduce afarmer’s productivity for many years as farmers often sell assetsthat they need to farm, such as draught animals, in order tosurvive the poor harvest. also, farmers may reduce investmentsin good seasons as they fear that they will lose the investment if adrought occurs. the Horn of africa risk transfer for adaptation(HarIta) project, now known as the r4 rural resilience Initiative,implemented with the World Food programme, offers integratedrisk management strategies to build farmers’ resilience toclimate-related shocks and to improve their livelihoods.

a joint initiative of oxfam america, the relief Society of tigray(reSt), Swiss re, the International research Institute for Climate

and Society at Columbia university (IrI) and a dozen other publicand private partners, including ethiopian farmers, local aidorganizations, insurance companies, and climate experts, HarItawas initiated in 2008 in the drought-prone northern state oftigray in ethiopia.

through the project’s unique insurance-for-work (IFW) model,the poorest farmers, who participate in a government run foodand cash-for-work initiative known as the productive Safety Netprogramme (pSNp), are able to pay for insurance through theirlabor on the long-term risk reduction projects identified throughparticipatory vulnerability assessments. Better-off farmers canpay for insurance in cash.

r4 ruraL resiLienCe in etHioPia: summaryFinDinGs oF Harita imPaCt evaLuation 2009-2012

teklit Weldesilasse of relief Society of tigray leads a discussion withfarmers in Metkel limat village of Samre woreda about their experienceduring the 2013 growing season.Geoff McCarney / International Research Institute for Climate and Society

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HarIta has successfully addressed some of the early concernssuch as low take-up rates of insurance in early pilots and thefeasibility of making index insurance available to poor farmers(Gine and yang 20074, Cole et al 20085, Morduch 20066) andoffers a unique opportunity to learn about the potential thatweather index insurance has to improve rural resilience. Manymore farmers want to buy insurance through the labor-for-insurance option than the program budget allows.

oxfam america commissioned a study to evaluate the impact ofthe HarIta project implemented in the tigray region of ethiopiafrom 2009 to 2012. Conducted by researchers at Columbiauniversity and the university of California at Davis together witha research consultant in ethiopia, the evaluation was carried outduring the four years of implementation of HarIta from 2009-2012 through a baseline survey in 2009 and follow-up surveys in2010 and 2012.

the following section discusses the methodology and key findingsof this study. this chapter is derived from the full evaluationreport to be published in early 2014. portions of the text aretaken verbatim from the report.

metHoDoLoGyresearchers used mixed methods — combining quantitative datafrom household surveys and qualitative information from focusgroup discussions and interviews — to understand the effectsthat HarIta had on farmers’ production decisions and yields. theresearchers observed one good season, in 2010, and one drought,in 2012, which enabled them to examine two channels throughwhich HarIta may exert impacts: one, by affecting farmers’resilience after a drought, and two, by affecting agriculturalinvestments made in a good season.

the quantitative study utilized panel data collected in three timeperiods, from three rounds of surveys - a baseline survey in 2009,and two follow-up surveys in 2010 and 2012, of 400 householdsin five treatment and three control villages. the quantitative

analysis uses a difference-in-differences approach to estimateimpacts that can be causally attributed to HarIta.the qualitative study included interviews and focus groupdiscussions with HarIta participants, village leaders, and staff oforganizations that implement HarIta. the interviews and focusgroup discussions help identify why benefits and/ordisadvantages are occurring or not occurring in the program areasand why they differ across different groups and conditions,including reasons due to the implementation process. they alsohelp identify potential effects of HarIta that were not capturedin the quantitative data, and provide the perspective of thebeneficiaries.

the evaluation effort focused on the following questions:

1. How does HarIta impact the agricultural decisions thatfarmers make and the outcomes of those decisions on theirresilience, and livelihoods?

2. How do the impacts differ across different types of farmers anddifferent conditions?

3. Why do we observe certain impacts and not others, and whydo impacts differ across types of farmers and conditions?

Key FinDinGs• Harita is helping improve farmers’ resilience by maintaining

their livelihoods when rains fail.

on average, across all districts included in the evaluation, farmersinsured through HarIta have increased their savings and thenumber of oxen — the most valuable animal and the main oneused to plow the fields — relative to uninsured farmers.

the specific ways that resilience is strengthened varied accordingto the specific characteristics of each district. In one districtinsured farmers increased grain reserves relative to uninsuredfarmers; in another district they were able to increase the numberand amounts of loans they took; and in the third district, insuredfarmers were able to increase the numbers of oxen owned.

4. Giné, X., yang, D. (2009). "Insurance, credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidence from Malawi." Journal of Development Economics, 89(1): 1-11.

5. Cole, S., Gine, X., tobacman, J., topalova, p., townsend, r., Vickery, J. (2008b).“Barriers to Household risk Management: evidence from India,” Working paper.

6. Morduch, J. (2006). “Micro-Insurance: the Next revolution?” In: Banerjee, a.,Benabou, r., Mookherjee, D. ( eds.) “What Have We learned about poverty?”, oxford university press.

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• Harita has some positive, but less widespread effects oninvestments in production in good seasons.

on average, across all evaluated districts, insured farmers haveincreased the amount of compost that they use per unit of landrelative to uninsured farmers.

In one of the three districts, insured farmers increased theirinvestments in fertilizer and traditional seeds relative touninsured farmers over the time period from 2009 to 2012; inthe other two districts, farmers only increased their investmentin compost, fertilizer, and improved seeds in 2010 (when rainswere good), but not in 2012 (when rains were poor). rainsfailed late in the season in 2012 therefore farmers had noreason to expect a drought when they were making theirinvestment decisions.

there is no evidence of corresponding increases in yields ineither season. this is not surprising during the second season,during which farmers experienced a drought.

• Female-headed households, which were among the pooresthouseholds, achieved some of the largest gains inproductivity.

Insured female-headed households, which are among thepoorest households because females are more vulnerablefarmers, seem to be increasing agricultural investments morethan are male-headed households participating in HarIta.

“Sharecropping out”7 land is a significant obstacle toimproving livelihoods, as the person who farms the landretains one-half or two-thirds of the yields. Sharecropping outland is more common among female-headed households thanamong male-headed households since female-headedhouseholds are more likely to lack oxen and the labor neededto cultivate their own land. In Kola tembien, the study foundthat insured female-headed households decreased theamount of land that they sharecrop out more than otherinsured farmers and more than the uninsured. In Saesi

tsaedaemba, the amount of land that farmers sharecrop outdeclined for all insurance purchasers relative to non-purchasers, not just for female-headed households comparedto other insured households. overall these results areencouraging and indicate a potentially important effect onwomen’s livelihoods.

Female-headed households increased their spending on hiredlabor and hired oxen more than other insured farmers andmore than the uninsured across all districts, which mayexplain partly how they were able to start cultivating more oftheir own land.

across all districts, insured female-headed householdsincreased the amount of land planted more than otherinsured farmers and more than the uninsured. they alsoincreased the amount of improved seeds per timad,8 and thetotal amount of compost more than all other groups.

Insured female-headed households increased the number ofloans that they took and the amounts that they borrowedmore than other insured farmers and more than theuninsured. the increased borrowing may have enabled themto increase their inputs.

• Farmers and village leaders affirm the value of Harita inhelping reduce the hardships imposed by droughts.

the demand for insurance is testimony to the farmers’appreciation. Many more farmers want to buy insurance throughthe labor-for-insurance option than the program budget allows.

• the consensus among farmers is that Harita is not yetimproving livelihoods in a transformative way.

according to farmers and village leaders, longer termimprovement in livelihoods requires access to irrigation andhelp to diversify livelihoods. the long-term financial viability ofthe program also requires wealthier farmers to purchase cropinsurance.

7. Sharecropping out means that a farmer owns the land but gives it to someone elseto cultivate in exchange for a portion of the yields.

8. “Timad” is a measure of land area most commonly used in tigray

Key reCommenDationsDiscussions with farmers, village leaders, and program staffgenerated the following recommendations:

• to address the obstacles that impede longer termimprovements in livelihoods, most farmers and village leadersbelieve that HarIta needs to expand its scope. they suggestthat HarIta invest in irrigation, since current rainfall may beinsufficient to support large increases in agriculturalproductivity, and in diversifying rural livelihoods.

• the HarIta program may consider whether irrigation and/ordiversification of livelihoods are essential to maintaininglivelihoods, not necessarily improving them, in the driest partsof the region, as droughts worsen. Determining sustainability ofrainfed agricultural activity requires more time to observewhether the recent apparent increase in frequency of droughtin some parts of the region is a short-term anomaly or a long-term trend.

• the insurance component of the program is currently attractingfew better-off farmers who can pay in cash in areas in whichthe labor-for-insurance option is offered. Inclusion of better-offfarmers may be important for the sustainability of the programand it may broaden and deepen the impacts of the program onthe livelihoods of the more vulnerable.

• the program may realize a significant improvement if it beginsto schedule registration for insurance and the implementationof risk reduction activities well before farmers need to begin toprepare their own lands for planting.

• the program would benefit from an expanded, and possiblyredesigned, communication and education strategy thatinforms farmers about the program and explains the mechanicsof index insurance. a separate communication and educationstrategy needs to be developed to attract better-off farmers.

• the program would benefit from broader participation byfarmers who want to be involved in decisions about riskreduction activities. there should be a clear process for farmersto offer comments and to receive a response.

• the HarIta program needs a well-developed, systematicmonitoring system that collects data on an annual basis.

• the program may consider working with farmers to developways to manage small payouts. Walking long distances to pickup small payout amounts is unnecessarily onerous for thefarmers.

ConCLusionthe results of the quantitative analysis and the consensus amongkey informants and farmers both indicate that the HarItaprogram is achieving the critical objective of helping farmers tomaintain their livelihoods in the face of drought by assistingfarmers to maintain their asset levels, access to food, and accessto credit. this is the primary goal of the program, and it addressesan urgent threat to livelihoods in the drought-prone region oftigray. Farmers show overwhelming appreciation for theprogram. they request that the program expand and includemore people.

the consensus among farmers and key respondents is thatHarIta is not yet having a transformative effect on livelihoods, inthe sense of helping people to grow out of poverty. Improvingliving standards is an ambitious goal that requires time, and it istoo early to assess whether the program in its current form canachieve this goal. However, the program can address certainobstacles that may be impeding such progress and it mayconsider new initiatives that may facilitate progress towards thisambitious goal. the study has generated severalrecommendations to address some of the operational constraintsto realize the full potential of the current design of HarIta tohave more transformative impacts on livelihoods, for example,scheduling farmers’ registration for insurance andimplementation of risk reduction activities earlier in the season,and strengthening the communications and education strategy.these lessons will be incorporated in the next year’s planningprocesses as part of the r4 rural resilience Initiative. the studyalso recommends expansion of the program’s scope to possiblyinclude investment in irrigation and diversification of livelihoods.this would require further deliberations among key stakeholdersand program team to explore these possibilities.

the full report of the evaluation study will be published in early2014 and the findings will be presented in various forums todisseminate lessons learnt, globally and in ethiopia.

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the 2013 pilot implementation of r4 in Senegal included a dryrun of weather index crop insurance and the farmer-led SocialNetwork for Index Insurance Design (SNIID) process. this involved:

• Initial visits by IrI scientists and local experts to the Diourbeland Koussanar regions in March/april 2013. the aim of thesevisits was to sensitize famers to index insurance, learn howfarmers perceive risk and to gather evidence for index design.

• Creation of prototype indices using satellite rainfall informationand rain-gauge information.

• additional field visits in May and November to Koussanar toconduct economic research games to understand farmers’preferences for different risk management strategies and indexdesigns.

the lessons learnt from these visits will feed into the design of anactual insurance product to be offered to farmers in 2014.

the following section presents the 2013 prototype indices, anassessment of the 2013 season and recommendations for the2014 index design.

r4 ruraL resiLienCe in seneGaL: 2013 enD-oF-season assessment

a woman waters a vegetable garden in the Senegalese village ofKoussanar. Fabio Bedini / World Food Programme

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2013 PrototyPe WeatHer insuranCe inDiCesDraft insurance indices were developed to be used as tests forthe dry run during the economic research games conducted inMay. a large component of the information needed for indexdesign was gathered using discussions with “farmer designteams” in each of the pilot villages. the farmer design teams ineach village consists of 10 to 20 farmers including womenrepresentatives, all elected by their peers. using discussions withthe farmer design teams and agronomic experts in Senegal, twodrought perils were identified that dominate other climate risks:

1. Weak or late onset of rainfall, impacts sowing and growth oflong cycle crops

2. Weak or early end of rainfall, impacts flowering, filling of allcrops

It was found that some crops are vulnerable to both perils, whilesome crops are only vulnerable to the second peril. to addressthe dominant perils, two separate prototype indices weredeveloped.

1. early Index: targets the drought peril due to late or weak onsetof rainy season

2. late Index: targets the late season drought peril due to early orweak end to rainy season

the information from the farmer design teams and local expertswas used to adjust the index for each village to the cropcalendars, drought history and rainfall amounts in the village. Forexample, the start and end dates of each index were specific toeach village.

the performance of the indices was then evaluated using thefollowing methods:

1. Comparing payouts from the indices with historical droughtyears, using a method called a ‘historical burn analysis’. theIrI team applied this method at a village scale, using the ‘badyears’ obtained from the farmer discussions. the team alsoconsidered a regional scale using aggregated information aboutprevious severe droughts;

2. agreement in index with satellite greenness at end of growingseason (experimental) and with other products such as therain-gauges and other satellite rainfall products;

3. Discussion with agronomic experts, local feedback, customersatisfaction surveys, regional level yield data.

During the field trip conducted in May, the indices werepresented to the farmer design teams to gather feedback andcheck if the index would have paid out in years that theyconsidered as drought years. Finally, the performance of theindices were monitored and evaluated throughout the 2013 rainyseason.

2013 season PerFormanCeDuring the 2013 rainy season, rainfall was tracked using satellites,automatic rain gauges and feedback from farmers. the result ofthis monitoring exercise indicated that the year did not classify asa severe drought year, a view confirmed by the farmers duringNovember field visits. the rain was also sufficient enough not totrigger a payout.

the farmer design teams indicated a late start to the season, a‘steady’ rainfall during the mid-season and some localized gaps inoctober rainfall. this led to good production of millet, sorghum,and maize, but poor groundnut production and rice was subjectto floods in certain riverbeds.the farmers agreed that this shouldnot be a payout year, providing initial validation of the index.Initial results from the economic games also showed that bothwomen and men were engaging with the product and that manywere comfortable using an index based on satellite rainfall.

reCommenDation For tHe 2014 inDexDesiGnBased on the analysis of the dry run indices, the r4 risk transferWorking Group drew several conclusions for 2014 index design:

1. a simple index should be created that is not specific to asingle crop but one that protects against many potentialscenarios. this is particularly important as there is highuncertainty in the data available for calibration (both in farmerpractice and meteorological information).

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2. satellite rainfall should be used for the index rather than raingauges. the dry run results showed that it was possible to usesatellite derived rainfall estimates to make a viable insuranceproduct. they have complete spatial coverage and a time-seriesof over 30 years. they are also tamper-proof, independent ofall parties, have very little missing data and are freely availablein real-time to anyone with an internet connection.

the use of satellite data supports the implementation of asimple index discussed in point 1. Satellites may be best used ininsurance to measure simple but important things. Forexample, satellites can show if there were any rain clouds overa village, or if the vegetation across the whole landscapeturned brown earlier than usual indicating that the rainfallseason in a village ended early and crops failed. they are lesseffective in informing the performance of a specific crop at aspecific stage in the growing season.

3. a shifting start date index design should not be employed forthe r4 project in Koussanar. this type of index uses a statisticalmethod to decide when a crop is planted and the growing seasonstarts. the contract window for the index would then start onthis date, so this means that the index will “shift” the plantingstart date from year to year depending on rainfall patterns.

It is important that the indices are tailored to the growing seasonin Koussanar and that agronomic information is used indetermining the contract windows, however, the specific featureof a shifting start date should not be employed. there are manyreasons for this conclusion:

• Shifting start dates have an extremely high sensitivity to smallchanges in input data (e.g. rainfall dates, cropping calendars,specific crop varieties planted, farmer practice), which asdiscussed above, is a key issue due to the high variations infarming practice and the high variability of rainfall overKoussanar. In some locations, changing the thresholds by a fewmillimeters caused a switch in historical payouts (from 0 - 100%or vice versa) in over 50% of years. therefore employing ashifting start date could lead to a high premium cost (as theinsurer has to take into account this uncertainty), plus a highrisk of false payouts, or missing a payout year altogether.

• In addition, this initial research found that changing the inputdata by a few days or mm could change the season start date

by up to one month. this means that farmers will not knowwhen their cover has started and there is a high risk that theresulting phases of the contract might be out of sync with theircropping season.

• the aim of the r4 insurance index is to focus on a generaldrought stress index rather than on a specific crop. as thesecrops are all planted on different dates, it is impossible tochoose a statistical growing season start date which covers allof them.

Without being able to link into a strong extension program wherefarmers follow recommended “itinerary technique” (croppingmanagement calendar) and have access to real-time rainfallinformation, it is not transparent to use a shifting start date.there is no method that farmers can use to know if they arecovered or not on a given day, therefore it is impossible for themto productively use the insurance to make farm managementdecisions.

4. attention must be paid to statistical aspects of the index, forexample the dekadal (ten-day) rainfall cap. a rainfall cap limitsthe amount of rainfall measured in a ten-day period, so that asingularly large rainfall event does not dominate themeasurement for the dekad. If a rainfall index is to be based onsums of rainfall, then it is very important that one high rainfallevent does not dominate. this is especially true in a locationsuch as Koussanar, where most of the water from an intenserainfall event runs off the field rather than being productivelyused for a crop. to take this into account, a rainfall cap is used.every ten-day period (dekad) in the window, the rainfallamount is totaled and a ‘cap’ (e.g. 25mm) is applied. this caprepresents the maximum amount of rainfall that is counted foreach 10-day period. these adjusted ten-day rainfall totals arethen added together to give an adjusted rainfall total for thefull contract window. rainfall caps have been used successfullyin other similar indices, however, it is important to check thatthese statistical aspects of the index such as the cap arechecked in order to make sure that they do not lead to missedor false payouts.

5. it is important to make sure that there are no sharp changesin payouts from location to location. Satellite rainfall isrecorded using pixels (grid squares of 10km by 10km). It wouldbe problematic to have a farmer walking a few hundred meters

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into the next ‘pixel’ and finding a completely differentsituation! to make sure this does not happen, a smoothingfunction can be used – where information from the areasurrounding the insured pixel is also considered as part of theindex. Different methods are currently being tested for use inthe 2014 indices.

6. two phases/windows should be chosen instead of three.Current evidence suggests that for a general drought stressindex, the most sensitive times are at the beginning of the rainyseason (planting) and at the end of the rainy season(flowering). there has been little evidence to suggest that coveris needed mid-rainy season.

7. the index should be checked against other data sources.Satellite rainfall provides one type of evidence about thegrowing season. also useful are rain-gauges, the output from

crop simulation models and information from satellite remotesensing of the ‘greenness’ of vegetation. For example, if thereis a drought, one might expect that there won’t be enoughrainfall (seen in the gauges and satellite data), for cropsimulations to forecast poor yields and for the landscape toturn brown (satellite vegetation). Checking the index against allof these sources is a good method of validation, and a check onwhether the index correctly captures “bad years”.

the dry run of weather index crop insurance during the pilot yearhas provided valuable insights for index design for the 2014season. the above recommendations will form the basis of theactual insurance products to be introduced and offeredcommercially to farmers in expansion villages. In the 2014 season,r4 will expand its insurance coverage to 3,000 households in thetambacounda region.

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etHioPiaIn the 2013 agricultural season, r4 expanded its operations to 80villages including 79 villages in the tigray region, and 1 village in anew region- amhara - where a pilot is being implemented inMichael Debir village. a total of 20,365 farmers purchasedinsurance this year exceeding the goal of 19,000. In tigray, 81percent of the farmers who purchased insurance paid 10 percentin cash and the remaining 19 percent paid fully with cash. Inamhara, all the 350 farmers who purchased insurance, paidthrough labor. Farmers in 13 villages received a share of $27,138(461,351 Birr) in payouts this season.

the index triggered payouts in 13 villages including the onevillage in amhara region where r4 expanded its operations this

year. In tigray, 3,221 farmers in 12 villages received a share ofthe total $23,451 in payouts. In amhara, all the 350 farmers whopurchased insurance obtained a share of the total $459 inpayouts.

In 21 villages, farmers reported rainfall shortage but theinsurance indices did not trigger payouts. the Internationalresearch Institute for Climate and Society (IrI) together withreSt visited eight of these villages to understand the seasonbetter and to investigate possible sources of basis risk. Based onthe results of this investigation, a strategy will be developed tominimize the effect of basis risk in the 2014 season and beyond.the strategy will include both index design improvements as wellas innovations to manage basis risk.

status summary

2012 2013

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Figure 1. r4 ethiopia timeline for 2013 season

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seneGaLIn Senegal, the last quarter marked the end of the agriculturalseason in tambacounda. the r4 pilot covered 500 households in12 villages in the communauté rurale de Koussanar. riskreduction work included the development of lowlands for ricecultivation, building wells for horticultural production and trainingfarmers’ associations in improved rice production techniques.

New savings groups were formed building on oxfam’s Saving forChange (SfC) methodology and trainings on financial educationwere conducted. In addition, training on small businesses wasintroduced to existing savings groups.

an inventory credit system linked to village cereal banks (knownas “warrantage”) has been set up in one village. By using the

stored cereal as collateral, this system provides farmers access tocredit right after harvest, a time of high household expendituresthat normally leads to sell-offs of key food crops at a low price.

a prototype weather index for crop insurance was developedbased on a feasibility study conducted in May to assess farmers’needs. this prototype design was tested during the 2013 croppingseason and will form the basis of the actual insurance product tobe offered to farmers in 2014. an assessment was conducted atthe end of the 2013 cropping season to assess the performanceof the prototype weather index. For details on the results of thisassessment, see section “r4 rural resilience in Senegal: 2013end-of-Season assessment”.

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2012 2013

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aCComPLisHments tHis quartermetriCs From tHe FieLD

etHioPia

Risk reduction• all the risk reduction activities planned for the 2013 season

were completed last quarter in tigray and amhara.

Risk transfer• In tigray, 3,221 farmers in 12 villages qualified for a share of

uS$23,451 in payouts; in amhara, 350 farmers who purchasedinsurance obtained a share of uS$459 in payouts

• the IrI team visited 8 villages in tigray where indices did nottrigger payouts but farmers experienced shortage of rain thisagricultural season. Inputs obtained from farmers will be usedto refine indices for 2014.

• In amhara, 33 participants including 27 Development agents,and 6 regional experts attended a training conducted by IrI onconcepts of weather index insurance.

Prudent risk taking and risk reserves• a total of 125 farmers received training on savings and credit

and 56 farmers were trained in petty trade and incomegenerating activities (IGa) in amhara; 36 farmers received IGapackages.

• this quarter, 15 additional farmers participated in village-levelsavings groups (VlSGs).

seneGaL

Risk reduction• as part of gardening activities, about 2,800 acacia trees, 280

cashew trees, 547 mango trees and 90 papaya trees wereplanted in 12 villages, covering 4 ha of land. the acacia treesserve as wind-breaks while the fruit trees provide income tofarmers, particularly women.

• Seeds were purchased and distributed to farmers for growingvegetables in Dawady, Kolombo and Sare Birom village. theseincluded 100 gr hot pepper seeds, 2 kg onion seeds, 1 kg oftomato seeds, 2 kg of turnip seeds, 200 gr okra seeds, 250 grof lettuce seeds, 2 kg of eggplant seeds, and 1 kg of carrotseeds. Farmers will use part of their production forconsumption and sell the remaining in local market.

• Curbs and walls were built around two new wells constructedin Dawady.

• Maintenance of 4 dams constructed as part of r4 project isongoing.

• about 3.5 tons/ha of rice production was achieved as part ofthe lowland management activities.

• the lowland management activities carried out this yearresulted in an increase in the total land cultivated in Dawady,Kolomba, Kouthiacoto and Kalbirom by about 108 ha; thetotal area of cultivated land was 19 ha in these areas beforethe program intervention which increased to 127 ha after r4intervention this agricultural season. to prevent soil erosion,

1,400 m of stone bunds have been constructed, themaintenance of which is ongoing.

Risk transfer• as part of the index insurance dry run, an economic research

game was conducted by the IrI team with 200 farmers inorder to gain information on farmers’ preferences for riskmanagement; draft indices were developed during theeconomic research game.

• training on index design was conducted by the IrI team forlocal partners in Senegal.

• at the end of the agricultural season, an assessment wasconducted to assess the performance of the prototypeweather index.

Prudent risk taking and risk reserves• a total of 49 savings groups (40 women’s groups; 9 men’s

groups) have been established covering over 1,000 members.• a community cereal bank was established in Kouthiakoto

village with a storage capacity of 25 tons; the cereal bank has973 members from 71 households including members fromneighboring villages.

• a total of 12 theatre shows were conducted in two locallanguages- Mandinka and pulaarin to build awareness amongfarmers on financial tools.

r4 achieved several key milestones during this quarter:

• oxfam america commissioned a study9 to evaluate the impactof the HarIta project implemented in the tigray region ofethiopia from 2009 to 2012. the full report of the evaluationstudy will be published in early 2014. Funded by therockefeller Foundation, the study was conducted byresearchers at Columbia university and university of Californiaat Davis together with a research consultant in ethiopia. theevaluation was carried out over a course of 4 years since theinception of HarIta through a baseline survey in 2009 andfollow-up surveys in 2010 and 2012. the findings werepresented at the america evaluation association conference inSeptember 2013. the results will also be presented at theafrica evaluation association conference in March 2014 andvarious other forums to disseminate lessons learnt, globally andin ethiopia.

• Following the evaluation study, oxfam has also commissioned acase study on the HarIta evaluation process and themethodology used. this study is being conducted by MichaelBamberger, an independent evaluation consultant who has 45years of experience in development evaluation and has workedwith the uN, the World Bank and the regional developmentbanks, bilateral agencies, country governments and NGos forseveral years. the study is planned to be used as a teachingcase for technical trainings on evaluations.

• reSt, the World Food programme and oxfam america signed atripartite agreement to scale up r4 in tigray. the agreementlays out the roles of all the three parties in the projectimplementation in the region. this agreement represents animportant milestone in the massive scale-up of r4 in thesubsequent years. a similar agreement is being formalizedbetween orDa, the World Food programme and oxfamamerica.

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 14

9. See section “r4 rural resilience in ethiopia: Summary Findings of HarIta Impactevaluation 2009-2012“ of this report for more details.

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 15

the 2013 agricultural season ended with an effective expansionof r4 to over 20,000 farmers in ethiopia and the successfulimplementation of the pilot in Senegal. this quarter marked theend of the agricultural season in ethiopia and Senegal withimportant observations and valuable insights for the planning ofthe 2014 season.

In Senegal, the performance of the prototype weather index forcrop insurance has been tested, the results of which will feed intothe design of commercial index insurance products to be offeredto farmers in the 2014 agricultural season. In ethiopia, the team iscurrently evaluating the performance of the indices in the 2013season and, in consultation with farmers and local partners, isinvestigating the issue of basis risk encountered in the 21 projectvillages. the results of this assessment will be shared in the nextquarterly report.

In addition, this quarter marked the completion of the HarItaimpact evaluation study for the period 2010-2012. the study hasshown encouraging results and has generated valuable insightsand recommendations for future planning. the study shows thatthe HarIta program has been successful in achieving one of thekey objectives of helping farmers to maintain their livelihoods inthe face of drought. For the program to accomplish the long termgoal of achieving transformative effect on livelihoods, the studyhas generated several lessons and recommendations. theselessons will be incorporated in the r4 program planningprocesses. the findings of this study will be presented in variousforums to disseminate the lessons learnt.

the upcoming reports will continue to highlight the progress inethiopia and Senegal.

ConCLusion

rice in this field in the village of Koussanar is ready to harvest. Fabio Bedini / World Food Programme

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 16

our LoCaL/nationaL Partners in etHioPia• africa insurance Company: private insurer in ethiopia

operating in the tigray, amhara, and oromiya regions.• Dedebit Credit and savings institution (DeCsi): Second-largest

microfinance institution (MFI) in ethiopia with nearlycomprehensive coverage of tigray. Named by Forbes magazineas one of the top 50 MFIs in the world.

• ethiopian farmers’ cooperative: primary organizing body forfarmers in the community.

• ethiopian national meteorological agency (nma): agencyoffering technical support in weather and climate dataanalysis.

• institute for sustainable Development (isD): researchorganization dedicated to sustainable farming practices.

• mekelle university: Member of National agricultural researchSystem providing agronomic expertise and research.

• nyala insurance share Company: private insurer in ethiopiawith a strong track record of interest in agricultural insurance.

• organization for rehabilitation and Development in amhara(orDa): established in 1984 with a focus on natural resourcemanagement, food security and agricultural development inamhara.

• relief society of tigray (rest): local project manager forHarIta, responsible for operating the productive Safety Netprogram (pSNp) in six districts of tigray and overseeing allregional coordination. established in 1978. Working withoxfam since 1984 on development issues. largestnongovernmental organization in ethiopia (and one of thelargest in africa).

• tigray regional Food security Coordination office: office withoversight of the pSNp in the pilot area.

• tigray Cooperative Promotion office: office responsible forhelping organize farmers at the village level.

our LoCaL/nationaL Partners in seneGaL• Agence Nationale de Conseil Agricole et Rural (ANCAR) -

national agency for rural and agricultural assistance.technical agency affiliated with the Ministry of agriculture. InKoussanar, it is responsible for leading community awarenessand mobilization activities, and providing seeds as well astechnical advice to farmers. like papIl and INp (listed below),aNCar is a key partner for the risk reduction component.

• Agence Nationale pour l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie(ANACIM) - national meteorological and Civil aviationagency. Will help with the design of insurance product(s) byproviding historical and current climate data, and installingand maintaining weather stations.

• Centre d’Appui au Développement Local (CADL) - supportCenter for Local Development. a body of the Ministry ofregional Development and of local government, it isresponsible for coordinating rural development projects ineach Communauté rurale. Chairs the r4 local technicalCommittee in Koussanar, and is responsible for thecoordination between the various local partners and for theoverall coordination of all r4 components on the ground.

• Crédit Mutuel du Sénégal (CMS) – mutual Credit of senegal. amicrofinance institution with an important national coverage,including in the tambacounda region. In Koussanar, it will be theimplementation partner for the risk taking (credit) component.

• Compagnie Nationale d’Assurance Agricole du Senegal(CNAAS) - national agricultural insurance Company ofsenegal. Senegal’s only agricultural insurance company(public-private company founded in 2008 by the government).It will be the insurance provider for the product(s) offeredunder the risk transfer component.

• Institut National de Pédologie (INP) - national institute forPedology. technical agency affiliated with the Ministry ofagriculture, in charge of soil conservation and restorationprojects, including building stone bunds and check dams, andcomposting.

• La Lumière. a grass-root Senegalese NGo which providesfinancial services to low-income rural households. It is thecurrent implementation partner for oxfam’s Saving for Changeprogram in Senegal, and will be the implementation partnerfor the risk reserves component in Koussanar.

• Projet d’Appui à la Petite Irrigation Locale (PAPIL) - Project tosupport small Local irrigation. technical agency affiliated withthe Ministry of agriculture, in charge of lowland rehabilitationand rice production activities.

• Planet Guarantee. Insurance broker specializing in micro-insurance for development and poverty reduction. InKoussanar, it will help CNaaS commercialize r4’s insuranceproduct(s) by conducting awareness-raising and marketingactivities among clients.

aPPenDix i: r4 Partners anD institutionaL roLes

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 17

• regional research Centre for the improvement of Droughtadaptation (Ceraas). Will help with the design of insuranceproduct(s) by helping create the rainfall index (including bycontributing to studies on the use of remote sensing tools),and by carrying out crop monitoring.

• Université Gaston Berger de Saint Louis (UGB). the seconduniversity established in Senegal, specialized in Social Sciences,economics and Business Management, political Science andapplied Science. uGB will provide the enumerators for FerDI’srisk transfer studies.

our GLoBaL Partners • Fondation pour les Etudes et la Recherche sur le

Développement International (FERDI): the Foundation forInternational Development Study and research was created in2003 on the initiative of CerDI- the Centre d’etudes et derecherches sur le Développement International (universitéd’auvergne, France) to support research in the field ofinternational economic development.

• Goulston & storrs, and Weil, Gotshal & manges: law firmsproviding pro bono legal expertise.

• index insurance innovation initiative (i4) at university ofCalifornia, Davis (uC Davis): research partnership on indexinsurance between academia and development organizations,with uC Davis, the Food and agriculture organization of theunited Nations, International labour organization, and the uSagency for International Development.

• swiss re: Global reinsurer and leader on climate changeadvocacy with funding and technical expertise.

• the international Fund for agricultural Development (iFaD):a specialized agency of the uN focused on rural povertyreduction, hunger and malnutrition.

• the international research institute for Climate and society(iri): Member of Columbia university’s earth Institute offeringresearch and technical expertise in climate data and weatherindex design for rural farmers.

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 18

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r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 19

in tHe neWs• adreinne Klasa and adam rober Green, “africa’s catalytic

agricultural innovations”, this is africa (July 30, 2013).

• Becker-Birck, C., Crowe, J., lee, J., & Jackson, S., “resilience inaction: lessons from public-private Collaborations around theWorld”, (July, 2013).

• World Bank, “ethiopia - using a social safety net to deliverdisaster insurance to the poor: case study”, (June, 2013).

• Climate Change the New economy (CCtNe), the Guardian andunited Nations environment programme (uNep), “G8 ClimateChange: the New economy”, (June, 2013).

• united Nations office for Disaster risk reduction (uNISDr),“From Shared risk to Shared Value –the Business Case forDisaster risk reduction. Global assessment report on Disasterrisk reduction” (May, 2013).

• Disaster risk Financing and Insurance program (DrFIp), GlobalFacility for Disaster reduction and recovery (GFDrr),“Senegal: Disaster risk Financing and Insurance Country Note”(November, 2012).

• agence de presse Sénégalaise, “Sénégal: le projet r4 veutaider les agriculteurs à faire face aux changementsclimatiques”, AllAfrica (Nov. 13, 2012).

• Sénégal – Humanitaire, “lancement au Sénégal d’une initiativede résilience rurale”, SousLeManguier (Nov. 14, 2012).

• “Sécurité alimentaire: l’assurance agricole pour réduire lesrisques en zone rurale”, Le Soleil (Nov. 14, 2012).

• Stephan Faris, “Seeds for Change”, Time (Sept. 24, 2012).

• lisa Friedman, “Companies Begin to See Necessity and profitsin adapting to Climate Change”, ClimateWire (July 11, 2012).

• Victoria eastwood, “Insurance Helps Kenya’s Herders protectagainst Drought”, CNN (June 18, 2012).

• Forum for agricultural risk Management in Development(FarMD), “oxfam & WFp’s r4 Initiative Begins expansion intoSenegal, Fueled by Success in ethiopia”, FarMD Memberupdates (June 5, 2012).

• David Satterthwaite, “Weather Insurance Builds resilience forFarmers”, Momentum (March 2012).

• Jim French, “ethiopian Crop Insurance and the Secret FarmBill”, Hutchnews (Dec. 22, 2011). this was also posted by:treeHugger.com, all Voices: local to Global News, and theWorld Food programme.

• David Bornstein, “News Flash: progress Happens”, The NewYork Times (Dec. 15, 2011).

• agnieszka Flak, “Games Wake people up to Climate Change”,reuters (Dec. 2, 2011).

• laurie Goering, “Insurance aims to Help Herders avoid‘Downward Spiral’ from Drought”, AlertNet (Nov. 30, 2011).

• lisa Jones Christensen, “Case Study: Swiss re and oxfam”Financial Times (Nov. 1, 2011).

• DesMoinesregister.com, “Crop Insurance Can pay off for Smallafrican Farms” (oct. 13, 2011).

• alertnet, “Scaling up Innovative Climate Change adaptationand Insurance Solutions in Senegal” (September 19, 2011).

• Global Washington blog, “reforming aid: transforming theWorld” (Sept. 8, 2011).

• alertnet, Index Insurance in East Africa, a video produced bythe International research Institute for Climate and Society(Sept. 2011).

• reuters, “Swiss re Joins ethiopian Micro-Insurance project”(June 10, 2011).

• tina rosenberg, “to Survive Famine, Will Work for Insurance”,The New York Times (May 12, 2011).

• IrIN Humanitarian News and analysis, “ethiopia: taking theDisaster out of Drought” (Nov. 24, 2010).

• “Global Insurance Industry Statement on adapting to ClimateChange in Developing Countries”, ClimateWise, incollaboration with the united Nations environmentprogramme Finance Initiative, the Geneva association, and theMunich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) (September 2010).

• evan lehmann, “Supporters of Global Insurance program Hopeto rebound after Dreary Copenhagen Summit,” ClimateWire(aug. 4, 2010).

• MicroRisk, “Swiss re Climate-linked Crop Insurance takes off”(July 2010).

• Deborah Kerby, “Climate Covered,” Green Futures (July 2010).

• lloyd’s News and Features, “Microinsurance to MitigateClimate Change Impact” (June 4, 2010).

• anne Chetaille and Damien lagrandré, “l’assurance Indicielle,une réponse Face aux risques Climatiques?” Inter-réseauxDéveloppement rural (March 31, 2010).

• pablo Suarez and Joanne linnerooth-Bayer, “Micro-Insurancefor local adaptation”, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: ClimateChange (March 12, 2010).

aPPenDix iii: meDia Citations anD resourCes

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 20

• New england Cable News, “oxfam provides Farm Insurance inafrica” (Nov. 6, 2009).

• James F. Smith, “World’s poorest Farmers Now offeredInsurance”, The Boston Globe (oct. 13, 2009).

• evan lehmann, “africa experiments with Climate Insurance—for $5 a year”, The New York Times (Sept. 30, 2009).

• “Swiss re, oxfam america, rockefeller Foundation, andColumbia’s IrI expand Joint risk Initiative in tigray, ethiopia”,Swiss re press release (Sept. 25, 2009).

• The Guardian, “Climate Insurance: What Kind of Deal Can BeMade in Copenhagen?” (July 24, 2009).

• Jeff tollefson, “Insuring against Climate”, Nature (July 22,2009).

• Catherine Brahic, “an Insurance plan for Climate ChangeVictims”, New Scientist (July 1, 2009).

• omer redi, “Insurance Firm Sows Seeds”, Addis Fortune (June14, 2009).

• Newsweek, “Coping with Climate” (Dec. 29, 2008).

aCaDemiC journaLs anD PuBLiCations • pablo Suarez and Jaanne linnerooth-Bayer, “Insurance-related

Instruments for Disaster risk reduction”, Global assessmentreport 2011, International Strategy for Disaster risk reduction(october 2011).

• Joanne linnerooth-Bayer et al., “Drought Insurance forSubsistence Farmers in Malawi,” Natural Hazards Observer 33, no.5, Natural Hazards Center, university of Colorado (May 2009).

• Molly e. Hellmuth, Daniel e. osgood, ulrich Hess, anneMoorhead, and Haresh Bhojwani, “Index Insurance andClimate risk: prospects for Development and DisasterManagement,” International research Institute for Climateand Society (IrI), Columbia university (2009).

• peter Hazell, Jamie anderson, Niels Balzer, andreas HastrupClemmensen, ulrich Hess, and Francesco rispoli, “potential forScale and Sustainability in Weather Index Insurance for agricultureand rural livelihoods,” International Fund for agriculturalDevelopment (IFaD) and World Food programme (March 2010).

• Marjorie Victor Brans, Million tadesse, and takeshi takama,“Community-Based Solutions to the Climate Crisis in ethiopia,”Climate Change Adaptation and International Development:Making Development Cooperation More Effective, JapanInternational Cooperation agency (JICa) research Institute(December 2010).

stories“ethiopian Farmers Get a payout, easing effects of Drought”

“With Insurance, loans, and Confidence, this ethiopian FarmerBuilds Her resilience”

“In Northern ethiopia, Weather Insurance offers a Buffer againstDrought”

“Weather Insurance offers ethiopian Farmers Hope—DespiteDrought”

“Medhin reda’s Best asset Is Her own Hard Work”

“Gebru Kahsay relies on rain But Has the Security of Insurance”

“Selas Samson Biru Faces uncertainty with the Seasons”

viDeos/muLtimeDia Africa’s Last Famine, a documentary co-produced by oxfamamerica and link tV, featuring HarIta

R4: The Rural Resilience Initiative

A Tiny Seed and a Big Idea

A New Tool for Tackling Poverty

PHotoGraPHy project photos are available upon request. See examples ofphotos used in the enclosed quarterly reports.

Partner rePorts • HarIta IrI updated 2012 HarIta Initial end of Season

assessment october 2012. this report is a deliverable by theInternational research Institute for Climate and Society (IrI) tooxfam america. It provides an early, exploratory assessmentof the 2012 rainfall season for the HarIta/r4 project inethiopia in terms of satellite rainfall estimates and theirimplication for the 2012 indexes.

• HarIta IrI report to oxfam america March 2012: this reportis a deliverable by the IrI to oxfam america on the 2012 indexdevelopment processes and presents the final indices offeredin the project villages.

• HarIta IrI report to oxfam america May 2011: this report isa deliverable by IrI to oxfam america on the 2011 indexdevelopment processes. It provides a description of theindexes, their structure, their data sources, the design process,and action plans for the project as well as a separate sectionwith the educational materials used to support the 2010/2011index development process.

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 21

• HarIta IrI report to oxfam america June 2010: this progressreport is a formal deliverable by IrI to oxfam america andpresents an overview of the scalable index insurance productdevelopment process for the 2010 growing season. It explainsthe economic risk simulation games conducted with farmers tounderstand their risk-management decisions/preferences andalso to educate them about index insurance packages.

• technical annex: HarIta IrI report to oxfam america June2010: IrI has been working to build a formal statisticalmethodology that will systematically compare and integrateinformation on remote sensing of rainfall, ground-based datameasurements, and other data sets. this report presents apreliminary analysis that focuses on adi Ha—the pilot village—modeling rainfall at five neighboring sites, where daily rainfallamounts have been recorded during different intervals foreach site over the course of a 49-year time period, from 1961to 2009. this methodology is intended to be further developedand packaged into tools for contract design and evaluation.

• HarIta IrI report to oxfam america october 2010: thisprogress report is a formal deliverable by IrI to oa thatsummarizes the 2011 scaling process and presents theeducation materials developed to support the scaling process.

otHer rePorts • Million tadesse and Marjorie Victor, “estimating the Demand

for Micro-Insurance in ethiopia,” oxfam america (2009). areport commissioned by the International labour organizationand the united Nations Capital Development Fund.

• Woldeab teshome, Nicole peterson, aster Gebrekirstos, andKarthikeyan Muniappan, “Microinsurance Demand assessmentin adi Ha” (2008). a study commissioned by oxfam america.

• Nicole peterson and Conner Mullally, “Index Insurance Gamesin adi Ha Village, tigray regional State, ethiopia” (2009). astudy commissioned by oxfam america.

• Nicole peterson, “livelihoods, Coping, and Microinsurance inadi Ha, tigray, ethiopia” (2009).

• tufa Dinku et al., “Designing Index-Based Weather Insurancefor Farmers in adi Ha, ethiopia,” IrI (2009). report to oxfamamerica.

r4 Quarterly report | oCtoBer - DeCeMBer 2013 22

Selas Samson Biru makes injera at her home in adi Ha, in the tigray regionof ethiopia. Injera is the staple ethiopia diet made from teff. Samson is afarmer and a participant of the r4 program in her community. Eva-Lotta Jansson / Oxfam America

Collaborationthe r4 rural resilience Initiative is a strategic collaborationbetween the World Food programme and oxfam america, withno commingling of funds. each partner has its own sponsors as listed. r4 is inviting donors to support expansion.

the World Food programme is the world’s largest humanitarian agencyfighting hunger worldwide. each year, onaverage, WFp feeds more than 90 millionpeople in more than 70 countries.

www.wfp.org/disaster-risk-reduction

With support from

© 2013 all rights reserved.

oxfam america is an international relief and development organization that createslasting solutions to poverty, hunger, and injustice, working with individuals and local groups in more than 90 countries.oxfam america does not receive funding from the uS government.

www.oxfamamerica.org/r4

With support from