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2012 Regional Totals for Southern Africa ("2013 AFRICA" analysis)All Years for Southern Africa: 2013 — 2007 — 2002 — 1998 — 1995

2012 Summary Totals for Southern AfricaData Category Definite Probable Possible SpeculativeAerial or Ground Total Counts 20,691 0 0 0Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 236,720 22,098 22,098 0Informed Guesses 5,603 0 249 213Other Guesses 5,296 0 0 48,844Totals 2012 268,310 22,098 22,347 49,057Totals 2007 297,462 23,516 25,064 10,346

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)Data Category Known Range Possible Range Total RangeAerial or Ground Total Counts 40,364 7 40,371Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 365,518 31,038 396,556Informed Guesses 49,859 16,184 66,043Other Guesses 68,849 47,247 116,096Unassessed Range 181,242 511,994 693,236Totals 705,831 606,471 1,312,302

Country and Regional Totals and Data QualityCountry Definite Probable Possible Speculative Range Area

(km²)% of Regional

Range% of Range

Assessed IQI1 PFS2

Angola 818 801 851 60 406,003 31 5 .03 1Botswana 133,088 21,183 21,183 0 100,253 8 66 .58 2Malawi 865 218 218 1,043 7,539 1 88 .41 3Mozambique 17,753 3,340 3,383 2,037 342,727 26 57 .45 1Namibia 16,054 4,472 4,492 0 146,904 11 58 .48 1South Africa 22,889 0 0 0 30,651 2 89 .89 2Swaziland 35 0 0 0 50 0 100 1.00 5Zambia 14,961 2,975 3,111 542 201,246 15 72 .60 1Zimbabwe 47,366 3,775 3,775 45,375 76,930 6 98 .50 2Totals 267,966 22,442 22,691 49,057 1,312,302 100 47 .38 0

Southern Africa: SummaryThis subregion has the largest elephant population, with almost 53% of the continental DEFINITES + PROBABLES. Almost all of these are derived from systematicsurveys. A large decline in the DEFINITE category of over 46,000 is due to a number of estimates being degraded (mainly from Zimbabwe) and changes in area (mainly fromBotswana). A number of new populations were assessed in Mozambique, Zambia, and South Africa, and a number of Repeat Surveys were undertaken. Major gaps inupdated data exist in Angola and Zimbabwe.

The 2011 PIKE level for Southern Africa was 0.5, indicating that the poaching surge is now impacting even previously secure populations in this subregion. Of particularconcern are MIKE sites in Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Namibia, poaching is increasing in the Caprivi, but so far not impacting Etosha National Park, or KrugerNational Park in South Africa. Again, carcass ratios from recent surveys across the subregion indicate a worrying situation.

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While PIKE levels in South Africa remain low, South Africa was identified by the ETIS cluster analysis as a country of concern with regard to large-scale ivory movements. Mozambique is also identified in the analysis as a country of concern, mainly due to its unregulated domestic ivory market and its role as a transit state for ivory flowing toTanzania and directly off the continent. Angola is the only range State in the subregion that has never submitted a single elephant product seizure to ETIS.

A number of transfrontier conservation areas are in place across Southern Africa. The recent Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA TFCA) waslaunched in 2012 and provides a framework for conserving this very important area of elephant range. National plans or strategies for elephant management are in place insome range States: Botswana (2003); Namibia (2007); and Zambia (2003).

Human-elephant conflict continues to constitute a long-term threat to elephant conservation. Two countries now have national human-wildlife conflict strategies: Namibia(2009) and Mozambique (2010).

1 IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephantrange (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).

2 PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site inquestion, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details onhow the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described athttp://www.elephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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South Africa, 2012 ("2013 AFRICA" analysis)All Years for South Africa: 2013 — 2007 — 2002 — 1998 — 1995

2012 Summary Totals for South AfricaData Category Definite Probable Possible SpeculativeAerial or Ground Total Counts 17,525 0 0 0Informed Guesses 5,364 0 0 0Totals 2012 22,889 0 0 0Totals 2007 17,847 0 638 22

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)Data Category Known Range Possible Range Total RangeAerial or Ground Total Counts 24,214 1 24,215Informed Guesses 3,052 0 3,052Unassessed Range 3,385 -1 3,384Totals 30,651 0 30,651

South Africa: Elephant EstimatesCause of Survey Details 2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location

Input Zone Change 1 Type Reliab. Year Estimate 95% C.L. Source PFS 3 (km²) Lon. Lat.

+ Addo Elephant National Park RS IR A 2011 560 SANParks, 2011 1 1,250 25.8E 33.5S+ iSimangoliso Provincial Reserve DT GT A 2011 90 Garai, 2012 1 350 24.4E 29.7S+ Ithala Game Reserve DT IR A 2011 146 Garai, 2012 2 297 31.3E 27.5S+ Kariega Private Game Reserve - IR A 2005 11 EMOA, 2005 2 190 26.7E 33.5S+ Kruger National Park RS AT A 2011 14,454 SANParks, 2011 0 19,624 31.4E 23.8S+ Kwandwe Private Game Reserve - IR A 2005 29 EMOA, 2005 3 158 26.6E 33.1S+ Makuya National Park RS AT A 2010 73 Garai, 2012 2 165 30.9E 22.6S+ Manyeleti Game Reserve RS AT A 2009 222 SANParks, 2009 2 228 31.2E 24.1S+ Mapungubwe Ecosystem NP AT A 2010 165 Selier & Page, 2010 2 29.2E 22.2S+ Marakele National Park DT AT A 2010 147 SANParks, 2010 2 27.7E 24.4S+ Mjejane Game Reserve NP AT A 2009 115 SANParks, 2009 3 40 31.2E 24.1S+ Sabie Sands Game Reserve RS AT A 2012 1,181 Garai, 2012 2 650 31.5E 24.8S+ Tembe Elephant Park DT AT A 2012 215 Garai, 2012 2 285 32.5E 26.9S

South AfricaPopulations in South Africa continue to increase, at least in the largest population in Kruger National Park. Repeat Surveys display an increase of close to 2,500 elephants.

Estimates were available for three New Populations: Mapungubwe National Park, Mjejane Game Reserve, and iSimangoliso Wetland Park (Provincial Reserve). NewGuesses were available for Hluhluwe-imfolozi Game Reserve (Provincial Reserve) and Songimvelo Game Reserve (Provincial Game Reserve).

Repeat Surveys, using the same methodology and coverage, were conducted in Manyeleti Game Reserve, Addo Elephant National Park, Makuya National Park (ProvincialNature Reserve), and Kruger National Park.

Sabi Sands Wildtuin (Private Game Reserve) was surveyed using an aerial total count, but covering a Different Area to the 2006 aerial total count.

Great Fish River Nature Reserve (Provincial Reserve), Mkhuze Game Reserve (Provincial Reserve), Tembe Elephant Park (Provincial Nature Reserve), AtherstoneCollaborative Reserve (Provincial Nature Reserve), Letaba Ranch (Provincial Nature Reserve), Marakele National Park, Mthethomusha Nature Reserve (Provincial NatureReserve), Madikwe Game Reserve (Provincial Reserve), Pilanesberg Game Reserve (Provincial Reserve), Garden Route National Park, and Ithala Game Reserve

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(Provincial Reserve) were resurveyed, but using different techniques to the previous counts of those areas. The iSimangoliso Wetland Park (Provincial Reserve) replaced theprevious counts for the Greater St. Lucia Wetland Park (Managed Nature Reserve) and Mkuzi Game Reserve.

A number of private reserves were surveyed and these have been aggregated into one input zone, as requested by the data providers.

There were no new estimates available for the Kariega and Kwandwe Private Game Reserves.

* Range of informed guess

1 Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: Newpopulation; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2 Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic DungCount; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator ofsurvey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table

3 PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site inquestion, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details onhow the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described athttp://www.elephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

All materials on this site are Copyright (C) 1995-2015 IUCN - The International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Use is permitted only under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/).