R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL Lausanne NGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009 Development of transnational...
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Transcript of R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL Lausanne NGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009 Development of transnational...
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Development of transnational land transport infrastructure in Asia, 1980-2008
An application of the Finger-Kuennecke framework of co-evolution and coherence between technology and
institutions
Concept for chapter 1 of PhD thesis
R. Alexander Roehrl, Chair Management of Network Industries, Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Contents
1. Background
2. Framework
3. Application
4. Conclusion
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
What is transnational network infrastructure (TNI) in land transport?
• Roads, railways, tunnels, bridges, and dry ports of “international importance” primarily developed to enable the flows of people and goods across national borders.
• Includes cross-border links and certain national trunk roads and railways.
• Transnational vs. international
Key institutional feature: Overall goal of governments expressed in “Grand plans” of trans-continental infrastructure development: coordination, design standards, cross-border facilitation.
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
• Intergovernmental Agreement on the Asian Highway Network– Project since 1959; Agreement since 2005– 141,000 km through 32 countries
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
• Intergovernmental Agreement on the Trans-Asian Railway Network– Project since 1960; Agreement since 2009– 81,000 km through 28 countries– Network of dry ports defined → Asian
Integrated Transport Network
• Grand plans define boundary of techno-institutional systems under analysis.
• Complementary cross-border facilitation agreements and frameworks: examples SCO, ASEAN, GMS, ECO, bilateral.
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Why? Bringing the economic miracle to the
Asian Hinterlands
AH1 India
• Doubling the world’s integrated labour force:• Due to end of cold war and Asian IPNs: from 1 to 2
billion.• Due to trans-Asian transport network: from 2 to 4
billion?
• Current Investment • US$260 billion invested in Asian roads and railways
each year, 7-10 of which for TNI. Mixed results. • China, Thailand, India invest in infrastructure in
neighboring countries• What are the “best” (but realistic) institutional approaches
on the multilateral level to develop TNI?
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Adapting the Finger-Kuennecke co-evolution and
coherence framework
Institutions(formal and informal)
Technology(physical artefacts,
design rules, practises)
national
nationalunimodal
2. Interaction (“Story”, typology)
2. Coherence(scope of control)
Transnationalintermodal
Multi-actor, local to
international1. System performance (“Transnationalization”):• cross-border infrastructure capacity (Asian highway design standards etc.)• cross-border traffic flows (incl. time-cost, reliability)• TNI investments (time lags)
Physical roads and railways, LCV, container block train services, scheduled bus/truck services
Gov. institutions, infrastructure and facilitation agreements, laws, admin rules, informal and business practises
Actors
subregional
3. “Explain” (illustrative examples)
Also relative to national situation!
Transport system performance: time, cost, reliability.
Governments define…
Institutions(formal and informal)
Gov. institutions, infrastructure and facilitation agreements, laws, admin rules, informal and business practises
Institutions(formal and informal)
Gov. institutions, infrastructure and facilitation agreements, laws, admin rules, informal and business practises
government
private sector
Grand plans: • Asian Highway, • Trans-Asian RailwaySubregional differences, Asian-wide impact!
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
1. Measuring system performance (1980-2008)
a) Cross-border infrastructure capacity– Lane length with minimum design standard (e.g., Asian Highway class III) for all
segments; Share of cross-border segments with minimum standard; – Design speed times number of lanes (→ quality and availability index,
weighting different classes)– Data sources: AH/TAR database, ADB, etc.
b) Cross-border traffic flow– AADT, TEU, tonnes, vehicles (also relative to comparable national links)– Time-cost for major international “routes” (reliability where available) for major →
Traffic index (compare with design speed)– Data sources: AH/TAR database, EATL, ADB, ESCAP, UNCTAD, ASEAN, GMS,
ECO, SCO, country reports, etc. c) TNI investment
– Infrastructure investment committed (overall, per km)– for all segments compared to and cross-border segments alone; →index– Data sources: Various studies, project reports, country reports, national statistics
• Asian grand plan, and overlapping subregions (South-East, East, North and Central, SCO, South)
• Challenge: consistency/completeness of data before 1996!
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
2. Overall coherence
Technical scope Institutional scope 1980
Institutional scope today
Interconnection(cross-border infra capacity)
Regional and national
National with coordinated
regional inputs
Multi-level, non-hierarchical
Interoperability (cross-border traffic flows and facilitation)
Regional network Global intergovernmental
Multi-level, non-hierarchical
Investment (TNI investment, maintenance?)
National and regional network
National with regional
coordination
Project-by-project basis
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
3. Techno-institutional interaction and link to performance – Typical examples following grand plan
Typology? Chronology Example Performance
Typical road example
(typical, except Central Asia)
1. Physical interconnection
2. Facilitation agreements
3. Commercial bus and truck services
Direct road link project between China and India through Myanmar
Mixed. Lower traffic than expected; low quality; better interconnection; little innovation (e.g., LCV)
Typical rail example (typical North and East Asia)
1. Block-container test runs
2. Commercial services
3. Facilitation agreements, investments, maintenance agreements
4. More commercial services?
Northern Corridor of the Trans-Asian Railway which links China through Mongolia and the Russian Federation with Europe
Mixed. Quick results and failures due to late/inadequate institutional response; low traffic and quality; low investment; little innovation (e.g., double-stacked)
Typical dry port example (typical ASEAN)
1. Grand plan calling for action
2. State railway investment
3. Agreement between railway companies; commercial service
4. Network investment
Lad Krabang, Thailand, (connected by container land-bridge to Northport, Malaysia)
Initial traffic success followed by inadequate institutional and investment reponse.
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Techno-institutional interaction and link to performance – Road “exceptions”
Typology? Chronology Example Performance
GMS road 1. One package: road development, finance, cross-border facilitation agreements, long-term maintenance agreements, scheduled bus and truck services.
Boten-Houaxay road transit project linking China and Thailand through Lao PDR
Considered as “best practise” in all respects. Led to US$ 4 bln. in additional national road investments. Lao logistics sector
Chinese bilateral road
1. Cross-border facilitation agreement packaged with road and port development
2. Commercial services
Chinese-financed road and container port in Baluchistan, Pakistan
Commercial success is questionable, but better inter-connection and investments. High quality.
North and Central Asia
1. Existing, low quality connection.
2. Investments (some)
3. Agreements (bilateral, subregional, regional)
China-Mongolia-Russia; SCO programme
Mixed. Better optimization of existing resources, but low infra progress
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Techno-institutional interaction and link to performance – Railway “exceptions”
Typology? Chronology Example Performance
ASEAN rail landbridge
1. Test runs
2. Commercial services
3. Inadequate facilitation and maintenance response
Rail bridge Laem chabang, Thailand, to Northport, Malaysia
Initial traffic increase, but missing investment, commercial disaster
ASEAN interconnection
1. Bilateral agreements negotiated on subregional level
2. Investment committed
3. Construction (hopefully)
4. Runs (hopefully), etc.
Singapore-Kunming Rail Link (SKRL) project
Political stalemate, no investment, no traffic, no inter-connection
SCO (i.e., China and Central Asia)
1. Comprehensive negotiation
2. Chinese unilateral investments
3. Joint cross-border projects
SCO facilitation programme
Slow, but real . Initial stages. Potential for innovation. New institutions.
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Techno-institutional interaction and link to performance – Dry port “exceptions”
Typology? Chronology Example Performance
East and North-East Asia
1. Local and national initiatives (PPP)
2. Commercial services
3. Further investment
4. Dicussions on “internationalisation”, politizisation
Most dry ports in Korea, China, Far East Russia, etc.
Commercial success, but mainly national. No significant transnational investment or interconnections
South Asia 1. Indian foreign policy
2. CONCOR partnerships with neighboring countries
3. Investment and PPP
4. Commercial operation
Birgunj, Nepal Little commercial success/traffic, but “hopes”. Additional investment
Central Asia 1. Existing intermodal facilities
2. State programmes; PPP requests;
3. Investments (hopefully)
ECO dry ports Missing investment or new inter-conection; lwo traffic; weak private sector
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Conclusion• Finger-Kuennecke framework flexible and promising
approach– Key is defining “performance criteria”, “coherence” and
“interaction” for the specific context!– Dynamic view needed– Can be used to identify “best” (but realistic) institutional
approaches on the multilateral level to develop TNI.– Provides explanatory illustrations of the coherence postulate?– Replaced it with a TNI postulate… (Cost-benefit balance of TNI
development)….• MLP perspective useful (see Daniel’s work)?• Suggestions? • Thank you! • [email protected]
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Thank you!
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Techno-institutional network/system
prepare promote
Hierarchy of projects of projects
Private sector
Asian Highway Agreement
International organizations
Conventions and agreements on
road infrastructure
and cross-border facilitation
Companies and business associations
Bilateral donors
Financial sector
Development banks
United Nations (e.g., ESCAP)
Other regional (e.g., ASEAN)
member- ship
Road infrastructure
standards
service
Governments
member-ship
plan and invest
lobby
Financing, e.g., loans
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Literature review• Co-evolution
– Technology and society (e.g., Geels, 2005)
– Technology and institutions in network industries (Finger, Kuennecke, Groenewegen, 2005, 2007, 2008)
• Network coherence along critical system functions (interconnection, interoperability, system management, investment) impacts performance
– Physical and non-physical networks (Moon and Roehrl, 2006)
• Network analysis
– Social network theory (e.g., Kadushin, 2004)
– New science of networks (e.g., Newman (2003), Watts (2004))
– Economics of networks (e.g., Economides (1996), Smith-Doerr and Powell (2003)
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Institutional network (excl. facilitation agreements) of the Asian Highway in 2005
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Results: Coherence in critical system functions
R. Alexander ROEHRL, MIR/EPFL LausanneNGI workshop, EPFL, 12 June 2009
Changing socio-technical system
1980 2008
Road networks unconnected across national borders
trans-national networks emerging
Railway networks
Dry ports none ~ 100
Services Unimodal intermodal
Formal institutions Planned by governments and financed from public budgets, controlled by national road and rail administrations
governed by ecosystem of local, national and international, and private sector institutions
… … …