Queensland Coal ExpansionQueensland Coal Expansion

Condition and Trend Analysis for Condition and Trend Analysis for the Queensland Coal Industrythe Queensland Coal Industry

Planting Trees, Changing Light-bulbs

• The carbon offset of planting 1 million trees …

would be completely negated by the emissions of the Queensland coal industry in under 7 hours.

• The annual carbon offset from changing 20 million light bulbs from a 60-watt incandescent light bulb to a compact fluorescent...

is completely negated by the Queensland coal industry in 32 hours.

BP Global Choice Initiative

“We’re leading our competitors with this unique programme, which is achieving major success each year. To date, we’ve offset over 2 million tonnes of greenhouse gas through the BP Global Choice™ initiative. Seven years after launch, our BP Global Choice™ programme had made a reduction in greenhouse gas equivalent to taking over 400,000 cars off the road.”

This entire effort is negated by the emissions of the Queensland Coal Industry in less than two days (46.3 hours).

This means that this “unique programme” would have to run for 1,324 years to offset the emissions from Queensland coal for just one year.

Taking Every Vehicle Off The Road

• 11.4 million vehicles for one year (ABS Release: 9309.0 - Motor Vehicle Census, Australia, 31 Mar 2007) 

Equivalent of shutting down the coal industry in Queensland for just 47 days…

Australian Reserves of Black Coal

Para-marginal Sub-marginal

In Situ 57.4 5.1 12.6 85.5

Recoverable 40.4 2.7 8.7 40.3 52.7

Estimated Quantity Years of Supply40.3 10751.7 13852.7 140

93 248104.4 27813.1 3553.4 142

Australia's Black Coal Reserves at 31 December 2004Demonstrated Resources

Sub-economicEconomic

Accessible EDR Inferred ResourcesCommodity (Gt -

109 tonnes)

National Black Coal Supply at Current Rates of Extraction (Years)

Accessible Economically Demonstrated ResourcesEconomic and sub-economic Demonstrated Resources

Inferred Recoverable ResourcesAccesible Economic and Inferred Recoverable Resources

All Demonstrated and Inferred ResourcesJORC Resources (Proven and Probable Resources)Best Estimate: Accessible EDR + JORC Estimates

Queensland Summary Statistics2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Saleable Production (Mt)

171.9Mt 183.28Mt 170.38Mt

Exports (Mt) 142.86 Mt 153.36 Mt 150.63Mt

Employment 18,687 18,243 17,394 (March)

Value of Exports $17.8 billion

$16.3 billion $17.9 billion

Queensland Coal ProductionQld Coal Production and Trend

(Mt/a)

R2 = 0.9917

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

1960-61 1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16

Mt/

a

Qld Coal Production Production Trend

Queensland Production

State Proportions of Total Black Coal Production% per annum

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Queensland NSW West Aust. Sth Aust. Tas

Destination of Queensland Coal

1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-060.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Distribution of Queensland Black Coal

% Interstate Distribution % State Domestic Use Overseas Distribution

Japan40%

India11%

Korea15%

Brazil4%

Taiwan6%

China3% Export Markets for

Qld Coal

Export Value of CoalAverage Export Value for Australian Black Coal

($/tonne)

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

1960-61 1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06

$ p

er t

on

ne

Export Value of CoalAverage Export Value for Australian Black Coal

($/tonne)

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

1960-61 1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06

$ p

er

ton

ne

2008-2009 Projections

• With modest increased volume

– 7% in metallurgical coal

– 6% in thermal coal

• Increased Export Value– From $26.6b - $54.9b in 12 months

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Coking Thermal Total

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Queensland Government Response

• Increase the royalty on coal exports from 7% to 10% for export value over $100 (as of 1st July)

• Anticipated revenue from coal royalties up from $1.02 billion to $3.21 billion

• Coal in Queensland to become around 9% of total state government revenue stream

Qld Coal Production and Trend (Mt/a)

R2 = 0.99

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

1960-61 1964-65 1968-69 1972-73 1976-77 1980-81 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2016-17 2020- 2024-

Mt/

a

Qld Coal Production Production Trend

Coal Exports by Queensland Port

1993-94 1996-1997 1999-2000 2002-03 2005-06

ton

ne

s /

ye

ar

Abbot Point Brisbane Dalrymple Bay Gladstone Hay Point

Location As at Nov 06Committed or

PendingLong Term Potential

Abbot Point 15 21 50 50Mt/a later than 2010

Dalrymple Bay 59 68 85Hay Point 35 44 57 55-57 under studyRG Tanna 52 68 68

Barney Point 7 7 7Wiggins Island 70 up to 75 subject to demand

Fisherman's Island (Bris) 5 5 8Total 173 213 340 Less than 340 subject to demand

Notes

Current Port Capacity and Projected Expansions (Mt/a)

Expansions to Port Capacity

Location As at Nov 06Committed or

PendingLong Term Potential

Abbot Point 15 21 50 50Mt/a later than 2010

Dalrymple Bay 59 68 85 85 completed 2009

Hay Point 35 44 57 55-57 under study

RG Tanna 52 68 68 Launched 9th July

Barney Point 7 7 7

Wiggins Island 84initial plans for 70 but up to 84 subject to demand

Fisherman's Island (Bris) 5 5 8

Port Alma Expansion 30

Shoalwater Bay 100

Total 173 213 489

Notes

Current Port Capacity and Projected Expansions (Mt/a)

Projected Port Capacities

01020

304050

607080

90100

Abbot

Poin

t

Dalrym

ple B

ay

Hay P

oint

RG Tan

na

Barne

y Poi

nt

Wig

gins I

sland

Fish

erm

an's

Islan

d (B

ris)

Port A

lma

Expan

sion

Shoal

water

Bay

Capacity at 05-06 Expansion

Queensland CoalRail

Capacity and Projections

Current November 2006 Projected 2010

Goonyella system 92 129Blackwater system 54 65Newlands system 15 19Moura system 13 18West Moreton system 4 6

Total 178 237

Queensland’s Current and Projected Rail Capacity to be completed by 2010

Rail Capacity Mt/a

Expansion of Production

• Currently 40 operational mines in Qld • 28 advanced coal projects

– 17 new mines– 11 expansions of existing mines

• 38 less advanced coal projects under assessment– Not exhaustive, but considered by State

Government as ‘of interest’

Coal Exploration and Development

Investment in Future Coal

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$ M

illi

on

/a

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

No

of

Per

mit

s

Private Exploration

Exploration Permits

Contribution of Coal Industry to Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Current CO2 Emissions of Queensland Coal Industry

378 Million Tonnes per Annum

• Projected CO2 Emissions of Queensland by 2025

– Assuming 370Mt/a target and 1.3% growth in domestic demand

848 Million Tonnes per Annum