Quarterly U.S. Property & Casualty Market...

Rate Monitor Report & Quarterly U.S. Property & Casualty Profitability Analysis First Quarter 2014

Prepared by Aon Benfield Analytics Proprietary & Confidential May 2014

Aon Benfield Analytics | Proprietary & Confidential 1

Contents

Section 1 Rate Trends Section 2 Quarterly Performance Metrics & Analysis Section 3 Additional Information


Executive Summary - P&C Industry Rate & Profitability Trends*

For the thirteenth consecutive quarter, commercial casualty rates increased

– However, the amount of rate increase has slowed for the fifth straight quarter

Despite the moderation in rate increases, carriers continue to achieve rate increases above long-term loss cost trends in most of their business segments

Similar to casualty lines, commercial and personal property rate increases are also showing signs of moderation

– Carriers are beginning to report flat or declining rates in commercial property

Earned premiums continued to grow, increasing approximately 4.2% in the first quarter of 2014

*Note: The profitability trends of the U.S. P&C Industry are represented by the trends of 61 public insurance and reinsurance groups.

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Executive Summary - P&C Industry Rate & Profitability Trends*

Despite the benign catastrophe environment, only 63% of the P&C groups beat their initial consensus first quarter earnings estimates

– Down from 74% in the fourth quarter of 2013

Annualized ROE for the first quarter was 10.1%, slightly below the annualized ROE for the first quarter of 2013

There was little change in the combined ratio (91.1%) for the first quarter when compared to 2013 and positive reserve development remained flat (4.2%)

Despite continued share repurchases, shareholders’ equity (excluding Berkshire) increased 2.9% primarily driven by net income as well as unrealized gains

*Note: The profitability trends of the U.S. P&C Industry are represented by the trends of 61 public insurance and reinsurance groups.

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Section 1: Rate Trends


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2007

, Q1

2007

, Q2

2007

, Q3

2007

, Q4

2008

, Q1

2008

, Q2

2008

, Q3

2008

, Q4

2009

, Q1

2009

, Q2

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, Q3

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2010

, Q1

2010

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2010

, Q3

2010

, Q4

2011

, Q1

2011

, Q2

2011

, Q3

2011

, Q4

2012

, Q1

2012

, Q2

2012

, Q3

2012

, Q4

2013

, Q1

2013

, Q2

2013

, Q3

2013

, Q4

2014

, Q1

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All Co. Avg

Specialty Co. Avg

Standard Co. Avg

Aon Benfield Commercial Casualty Rate Indices

Notes: Aon Benfield rate information on pages 4-6 compiled from Earnings Calls, Press Releases and other filings (10K’s, 10Qs) from the following companies: Standard: ACE Limited., American International Group, Inc., Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Travelers Companies Inc., XL Group plc, W.R. Berkley Corporation, CNA

Financial Corporation and Chubb Corporation Specialty: ACE Limited, Arch Capital Group Ltd, Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG, AXIS Capital Holdings Limited, Markel Corporation, RLI Corp., W.R. Berkley

Corporation, CNA Financial Corporation and Chubb Corporation; Some groups report a Commercial Line rate change which includes both property and casualty

Aon Benfield Commercial Casualty Indices For the thirteenth consecutive quarter, commercial casualty rates increased

– All 13 groups included in the study achieved rate increases

– However, the size of rate increases has declined approximately 2.8pp from it’s peak, a year and a half ago

Most of the carriers maintain that the rate increases still exceed loss cost trends


-16%

-11%

-6%

-1%

4%

9%

2007

, Q1

2007

, Q2

2007

, Q3

2007

, Q4

2008

, Q1

2008

, Q2

2008

, Q3

2008

, Q4

2009

, Q1

2009

, Q2

2009

, Q3

2009

, Q4

2010

, Q1

2010

, Q2

2010

, Q3

2010

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2011

, Q1

2011

, Q2

2011

, Q3

2011

, Q4

2012

, Q1

2012

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2013

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Advisen*Aon Benfield All Co AvgCIAB (GL)CLIPSMarket Scout

Comparison of Commercial Casualty Rate Indices

Commercial Casualty Rate Indices Casualty Lines Rate Changes by Quarter as Reported

*Note: Starting in the fourth quarter of 2012, Advisen changed its approach to compiling its rate index. Advisen now focuses on large commercial accounts.

When disclosed, carriers state that increased premiums are due from both rate and exposure increases in roughly the same proportion

Most recently, carriers have obtained the largest increases in rate in both Commercial Auto as well as E&S lines

Aon Benfield Company Sample

Year Qtr CIAB (GL)Market Scout Advisen* CLIPS All Co. Avg

Specialty Co. Avg

Standard Co. Avg

2007 Q1 -10.5% -10.3% -2.0% -4.0% -3.9% -5.2% -3.0%2007 Q2 -11.4% -13.0% -2.5% -5.0% -5.6% -7.3% -4.8%2007 Q3 -12.1% -14.3% -2.9% -5.0% -7.3% -9.3% -5.4%2007 Q4 -12.2% -15.3% -3.6% -6.0% -6.7% -6.7% -5.8%2008 Q1 -12.6% -13.7% -5.4% -6.0% -6.6% -6.9% -5.5%2008 Q2 -11.9% -11.3% -6.0% -6.0% -7.4% -7.6% -5.9%2008 Q3 -9.7% -10.3% -6.9% -5.0% -5.8% -6.0% -4.9%2008 Q4 -5.8% -9.0% -6.4% -3.0% -3.6% -4.4% -2.6%2009 Q1 -4.2% -8.0% -3.9% 0.0% -0.6% -0.8% -0.5%2009 Q2 -4.9% -6.3% -2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2%2009 Q3 -4.7% -5.0% -1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%2009 Q4 -5.6% -4.7% -1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%2010 Q1 -4.9% -4.3% -2.4% 0.0% -0.1% -1.0% 0.7%2010 Q2 -6.3% -3.3% -2.9% -1.0% -1.5% -2.5% -0.1%2010 Q3 -5.4% -3.7% -2.9% -1.0% -1.2% -1.7% -0.6%2010 Q4 -2.2% -4.7% -2.4% -1.0% -1.2% -2.1% -0.6%2011 Q1 -2.8% -4.7% -2.4% 0.0% 0.1% -0.5% 0.4%2011 Q2 -1.0% -3.7% -1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 1.8%2011 Q3 0.3% -1.3% -1.1% 2.0% 2.5% 0.9% 3.3%2011 Q4 2.2% 0.7% -0.4% 3.0% 3.7% 2.0% 4.6%2012 Q1 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 5.4%2012 Q2 4.3% 3.7% 1.8% 6.0% 6.1% 5.6% 6.6%2012 Q3 4.2% 4.7% 2.2% 6.0% 7.2% 6.6% 7.7%2012 Q4 3.3% 4.7% 2.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.8% 7.3%2013 Q1 4.5% 4.7% 2.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 7.2%2013 Q2 3.5% 5.0% 2.9% 6.0% 6.2% 5.9% 7.1%2013 Q3 2.9% 4.3% 3.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.6% 6.4%2013 Q4 2.3% 3.7% 2.3% 5.0% 5.1% 4.6% 5.8%2014 Q1 1.5% 2.7% 1.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.7%

Annual2005 -7.5% -4.1% -7.4% -2.0%2006 -6.6% -6.9% -2.0% -1.8%2007 -11.6% -13.3% -2.7% -5.0% -5.9% -7.1% -4.7%2008 -10.0% -11.1% -6.2% -5.0% -5.8% -6.2% -4.7%2009 -4.9% -6.0% -2.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%2010 -4.7% -4.0% -2.7% -0.8% -1.0% -1.8% -0.1%2011 -0.3% -2.3% -1.4% 1.6% 1.9% 0.6% 2.5%2012 3.8% 3.8% 1.7% 6.0% 6.3% 5.8% 6.8%2013 3.3% 4.4% 2.7% 6.0% 6.0% 5.6% 6.6%2014 1.5% 2.7% 1.2% -- 4.3% 3.9% 4.7%


50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Advisen

Aon Benfield All Co Avg

CIAB (GL)

CLIPS

Market Scout

Cumulative Casualty Rate Indices Cumulative Casualty Rate Indices

Note: The CLIPS Index excludes Q42013 rates in cumulative calculation

Although rates continue to increase, there is a moderate loss of rate momentum Carriers state that the environment has become more competitive over the last

six months, but overall the market is still “rationale” Carriers are competitive where results have been good and are increasing rates

“where there have been problems”


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2008

, 1Q

2008

, 2Q

2008

, 3Q

2008

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2009

, 1Q

2009

, 2Q

2009

, 3Q

2009

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2010

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2010

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2010

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Aon Benfield All Co Avg (HO only - Filed)

Market Scout Barometer (Personal Prop)

Comparison of Personal Lines Rate Indices

Personal Lines Rate Indices Personal Property Lines Rate Changes by Quarter as Reported

Similar to casualty, personal property and Homeowners’ rate increases are continuing to show signs of moderation

Some carriers are beginning to report flat or declining rates through the first quarter of 2014

Source: The Aon Benfield Homeowners rate index is based on approved rate filings for the top twenty insurance groups in each state.

Year Qtr

Market Scout (Personal Property)

Aon Benfield (HO- only)

2008 Q1 -- -1.9%2008 Q2 -- 2.1%2008 Q3 -- 2.7%2008 Q4 -- 3.5%2009 Q1 -- 4.2%2009 Q2 -- 4.6%2009 Q3 -- 4.9%2009 Q4 -- 6.0%2010 Q1 -- 7.0%2010 Q2 -- 7.6%2010 Q3 -- 7.4%2010 Q4 -- 6.4%2011 Q1 -- 6.4%2011 Q2 -- 6.0%2011 Q3 -- 6.4%2011 Q4 -- 6.8%2012 Q1 1.7% 6.7%2012 Q2 1.7% 6.8%2012 Q3 2.7% 6.9%2012 Q4 3.7% 7.4%2013 Q1 3.7% 7.6%2013 Q2 3.7% 6.8%2013 Q3 3.3% 6.9%2013 Q4 3.0% 6.3%2014 Q1 2.3% 5.7%

Annual2008 -- 3.5%2009 -- 6.0%2010 -- 6.4%2011 -- 6.8%2012 2.4% 7.4%2013 3.4% 6.3%2014 3.1% 5.7%


Comparison of Commercial Property Rate Indices Commercial Property Rate Indices Comm Property Lines Rate Changes by Quarter as Reported

Commercial property rates also continue to lose momentum

The weakening of property pricing reflects the abundant capacity and the lack of recent catastrophe events

-20%

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2008

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2008

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2008

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2008

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CIAB (Comm Prop - Written)

Market Scout Barometer (Comm Prop - Written)

Year QtrCIAB (Comm Prop -

Written)

Market Scout Barometer (Comm

Property)2008 Q1 -14.4% -15.5%2008 Q2 -12.4% -14.3%2008 Q3 -10.7% -12.7%2008 Q4 -5.1% -10.7%2009 Q1 -3.3% -8.0%2009 Q2 -2.9% -6.0%2009 Q3 -3.8% -4.3%2009 Q4 -5.3% -5.0%2010 Q1 -5.6% -4.3%2010 Q2 -7.0% -4.0%2010 Q3 -5.2% -4.0%2010 Q4 -4.9% -4.7%2011 Q1 -2.0% -4.7%2011 Q2 2.4% -3.0%2011 Q3 3.0% -0.3%2011 Q4 5.7% 2.0%2012 Q1 6.7% 3.0%2012 Q2 7.6% 4.7%2012 Q3 6.0% 6.3%2012 Q4 5.7% 5.0%2013 Q1 6.8% 5.7%2013 Q2 6.0% 5.7%2013 Q3 3.9% 5.3%2013 Q4 2.0% 3.7%2014 Q1 0.0% 2.7%

Annual2008 -10.6% -13.1%2009 -3.8% -5.8%2010 -5.6% -4.3%2011 2.3% -1.4%2012 6.5% 4.8%2013 4.7% 5.1%2014 3.0% 4.3%


0%

20%

40%

60%

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100%

120%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

CIAB (Comm Prop - Written)

Market Scout Barometer (Comm Prop - Written)

Cumulative Commercial Property Rate Indices

Commercial property rate indices measured little (Market Scout, 2.7%) or no (CIAB, 0%) rate increases during the 1st quarter

Commercial property rate increases are the smallest since 2011 Most carriers are expecting the commercial property market to remain

competitive, especially on the larger accounts

Cumulative Commercial Property Rate Indices

Section 2: Quarterly Performance Metrics & Analysis


Profitability Analysis Observations - 61 Insurance & Reinsurance Groups

In 1Q 2014, 63% of P&C groups beat their quarterly initial consensus earnings estimates

– This is the lowest percentage of groups missing their consensus earning estimates since 2Q 2013

The Q1 2014 combined ratio for the P&C industry increased slightly, by 0.9pp YOY to 91.1%

– Carriers continue to experience relatively low catastrophe losses, which contributed 2.6pp to the Q1 2014 combined ratio (Q1 2013: 1.3pp)

– To a lessor extent, improved pricing has benefited the combined ratio as carriers generally acknowledged that rate increases in most lines exceeded loss cost trends

– There was little change in favorable loss reserve development from 2013 to 2014 (in both years, reserve development benefited the combined ratio approx. 4.6pp)

Annualized ROE for the quarter was 10.1%, down 0.9pp from Q1 2013

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Profitability Analysis Observations - 61 Insurance & Reinsurance Groups

Shareholders’ equity (excluding Berkshire) increased 2.8% in 1Q 2014, driven by net income of $10B and unrealized gains of $7B

– Equity over the prior three quarters increased at a lower rate due to unrealized losses

Earned premiums continued to grow for the P&C industry, increasing approximately 4.2% in the first quarter of 2014

– Carriers attributed the increased premiums to both new business as well as rate and exposure increases on existing business

Earned premiums growth was led by the Specialty sector (13.9%)

– The Specialty sector has achieved increases in earned premium over 10% in each of the last seven quarters

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Miss Beat

% Beat EPS

Target

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large Cap (7)

Commercial (7)

Personal (9)

Specialty (16)

Small Cap Specialty (9)

Reinsurance (11)

Industry (59) 63

73

44

75

67

57

37

8

4

12

6

4

3

22

3

5

4

3

3

4 43

Q1 2014 Actual vs. Estimated EPS – Groups by Sector

Note: There are 61 insurance and reinsurance groups included in this report. However, EPS estimates were not available for 2 groups. The number next to each sector represents the number of groups in that sector. “Miss” or “Beat” refers to the number of groups that did not meet (Miss) or exceeded (Beat) the consensus EPS estimate.

Missed Target Est. Beat Target Est.

EPS Estimated vs. Actual


Q1 2014 Profitability - 61 Insurance & Reinsurance Groups

Notes: 1) Quarterly % change year over year (i.e. Percentage change from 1st Quarter 2013 vs. 1st Quarter 2014) 2) Represents a sample of 13 groups which focus on “Commercial Casualty” business 3) NWP (Trailing Twelve Months) / Equity

Equity (ex Berkshire)

Equity P&C Earned Premium Change¹

NWP / Equity3 Combined Ratio

Comm Lines & Casualty Rate Change2

-1.7% +2.2% +3.5% +2.8%

550

575

600

625

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014

-3.3% +1.7% +1.9% +2.9%

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014

QuarterChng

QuarterChng

0.93

1.00 0.98 0.97 0.97

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014

5.2%

3.7%3.2%

4.6% 4.2%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014

90.1%95.2%

91.5% 91.2% 91.1%

50%

65%

80%

95%

110%

125%

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014

($Bi

llion)

6.8% 6.5% 6.3%5.5%

4.7%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014

($Bi

llion)


CY Quarter YOY Point Change

Q1 2014 Profitability Ratios – 61 Groups by Sector

Note: CY Quarter = Current Year Quarter; YOY Point Change = Percentage point change from 1st Quarter 2013 v. 1st Quarter 2014

Return on Equity P&C Earned Premium Change Combined Ratio

Reserve Development to Premium Catastrophe Losses to Premium Combined Ratio ex-Cat & Reserve Development

+0.4

-1.8

-0.9

-0.3

-0.3

+0.6

+1.1

50% 65% 80% 95% 110% 125%

Pers

SCSpec

Spec

Comm

Industry

LargeCap

Reins

+2.1

+0.0

-0.9

-1.5

-2.8

-3.6

-5.5

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Comm

Spec

Industry

SCSpec

LargeCap

Pers

Reins

+0.7

+0.0

-1.4

-0.9

-0.0

-0.3

+1.2

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

LargeCap

SCSpec

Comm

Pers

Industry

Spec

Reins

+1.6

-0.6

+0.9

+3.0

+0.9

-0.4

+2.4

50% 65% 80% 95% 110% 125%

Pers

SCSpec

Comm

LargeCap

Industry

Spec

Reins

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Comm

LargeCap

Reins

Industry

Pers

SCSpec

Spec

+2.1

+2.7

+1.2

+1.7

+1.3

+0.9

+0.2

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Pers

Comm

SCSpec

LargeCap

Industry

Spec

Reins

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

Section 3: Additional Information


Purpose of the Rate Monitor Report & Quarterly Profitability Analysis

The purpose of this report is to provide an update on rate trends

– Casualty rate trends are culled from a variety of public sources and represent Aon Benfield’s best estimate of casualty rate changes

– The Aon Benfield Homeowners rate index is based on approved rate filings for the top twenty insurance groups in each state

– The Aon Benfield rate change indices are compared to other rate change indices including: Advisen, CIAB, CLIPS and Market Scout

The report also provides insight into the profitability of the U.S. P&C Industry

– The U.S. P&C Industry is represented by 61 public insurance and reinsurance groups

– The groups are predominantly U.S. non-life and have been categorized into six sectors


Insurance & Reinsurance Groups By Sector

* Notes: Estimated EPS not available

Sector Group Sector Group Sector GroupLargeCap ACE Limited SCSpec AMERISAFE, Inc. Comm Cincinnati Financial CorporationLargeCap American International Group, Inc. SCSpec Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. Comm CNA Financial CorporationLargeCap Allstate Corporation SCSpec EMC Insurance Group Inc. Comm Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.LargeCap Berkshire Hathaway Inc. SCSpec Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc. Comm Old Republic International CorporationLargeCap Chubb Corporation SCSpec Kingsway Financial Services Inc.* Comm XL Group plcLargeCap Progressive Corporation SCSpec First Acceptance Corporation* Comm Fairfax Financial Holdings LimitedLargeCap Travelers Companies, Inc. SCSpec Employers Holdings, Inc. Comm Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.

SCSpec Global Indemnity plcSpec Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG SCSpec National Interstate Corporation Reins Aspen Insurance Holdings LimitedSpec American Financial Group, Inc. SCSpec United Fire Group, Inc. Reins AXIS Capital Holdings LimitedSpec AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. SCSpec Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. Reins Everest Re Group, Ltd.Spec Arch Capital Group Ltd. Reins Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd.Spec Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. Pers Donegal Group Inc. Reins PartnerRe Ltd.Spec Assurant, Inc. Pers Erie Indemnity Company Reins Platinum Underwriters Holdings, Ltd.Spec Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. Pers Kemper Corporation Reins RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.Spec ProAssurance Corporation Pers Horace Mann Educators Corporation Reins Validus Holdings, Ltd.Spec HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. Pers Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation Reins Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.Spec Markel Corporation Pers Mercury General Corporation Reins Maiden Holdings, Ltd.Spec Navigators Group, Inc. Pers State Auto Financial Corporation Reins Alleghany CorporationSpec OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Pers Safety Insurance Group, Inc.Spec RLI Corp. Pers Hilltop Holdings Inc.Spec Selective Insurance Group, Inc.Spec W.R. Berkley CorporationSpec White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.


Contacts & Sources Stephen Mildenhall Global CEO of Analytics Aon Singapore Innovation & Analytics Center +65.6231.6481 [email protected] Brian Alvers Head of Americas Actuarial Aon Benfield Analytics +1.312.381.5355 [email protected]

Greg Heerde Head of Americas Analytics Aon Benfield Analytics +1.312.381.5364 [email protected] Mike McClane Market Analysis - Americas Aon Benfield Analytics +1.215.751.1596 [email protected]

Sources: Advisen Ltd., Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (CLIPS), Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers (CIAB), Market Scout,

State Rate Filings from Perr&Knight, SNL Financial, LC and Aon Benfield Analytics

mailto:[email protected]





About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. © Aon Benfield Inc. All rights reserved. This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. This analysis is based upon information from sources we consider to be reliable, however Aon Benfield does not warrant the accuracy of the data or calculations herein. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. Aon Benfield disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. Members of the Aon Benfield Analytics will be pleased to consult on any specific situations and to provide further information regarding the matters discussed herein.

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