Quarterly Trends Reportf.tlcollect.com/fr2/416/78279/UNFI_Trends_Q4_2015.pdfQuarterly Trends Report...

Quarterly Trends Report

October – December 2015

2 Trends Q4 2015

data sources

national distribution UNFI’s Natural Independent Channel compared to Actual Sales

sales October – December 2015 sales of all UNFI distribution centers

SPINSscan Natural Channel sales October – December 2015

3 Trends Q4 2015

table of contents

31 year-end review

25 top new items

36 featured products

15 growth trends

33 looking forward

4 bulk review

bulk review market update

4 Trends Q4 2015

bulk sales

5

nuts 32% seeds 5.41%

cereal 7.79%

baking 7.82%

snacks 9.01% grains 14.72%

dried fruit 10.94%

beans 5.09%

all other 7.8%

6 Growth in capabilities

growing bulk categories all channels

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

nuts dried fruit snacks beans

% growth

% growth

7

• all channels

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%grains cereal seeds

% decline

% growth

declining bulk categories

8

bulk market update Nuts (+7.1%): Organic market performed well in Q4

• supply remains tight with many suppliers sold out of this years organic almond (+10.3%) and organic walnut (+2%) crops and limited availability on organic pecans (+8.1%)

• due to availability, the remaining stock of those items may see a rise in cost • organic pistachio nuts (+6.4%) are abundant and of very good quality this year • sales of organic nuts were strong during Q4 but the high cost and retail prices

caused some consumers to choose conventional nuts • export demand for nuts has slowed in China as their economic situation has

slowed consumption drastically • weather may be an issue as the El Nino effect has led to more rain and cooler

weather in California’s growing areas; this could have negative impacts going into growing season

• look for sprouted nuts to become more prevalent next quarter - sprouting increases bioavailability of vitamins and minerals and makes for easier digestion

9

bulk market update grains, beans and seeds grains (-6.5%) • although not officially a grain, quinoa is definitely back to affordable prices • quinoa has high levels of antioxidants and omega-3s and is also gluten free

beans (+8.6%) • consumption increasing due to millennials’ preference for simple, unprocessed foods • a popular substitute for meat

Seeds (-7.6%) • pumpkin seeds dominated seed sales as a great source of protein, zinc, and iron

TOP SELLING BULK ITEMS description pack size east item # west item #

quinoa,og1,white 25lb 0548404 00552 quinoa,og1,red 25lb 0538413 00634

quinoa,og1,tri color 25lb 0500553 00471

beans,og2,garbanzo,chkpea 25lb 0627109 00015 lentils,og2,red,split 25lb 0854000 00033 pumpkin seeds,og2 27lb 0653667 02499

10 Trends Q4 2015 – Bulk Review

Q4 new items driving sales bulk review

Certified Organic Coconut Flour & Coconut Palm Sugar • certified organic, vegan & non-GMO • coconut palm sugar is the most sustainable sweetener in the world

description Pack/Size east item # west item # coconut palm sugar, organic 27 / LB 177739-0 00256

coconut flour, organic 25 / LB 177740-8 00312



description east item # west item #

salted, sprouted 162927 47707

salt free, sprouted 162928 47706

Sprouted California Almonds

A growing body of research shows the health benefits of sprouted grains and seeds, including increased digestibility and nutrients

http://wholegrainscouncil.org/whole-grains-101/health-benefits-of-sprouted-grains

description east item # west item # organic sprouted almonds 178004-8 00462

organic sprouted pumpkin seeds 178008-9 00491

organic sprouted mix, mango goji fire 178010-5 00508

organic sprouted mix, wild berry 178014-7 00640

organic sprouted cereal, acai blueberry 178017-0 00645

organic sprouted cereal, hemp & greens

178021-2 00654

Organic Sprouted Nuts, Seeds, Cereals & Mixes






Trail Mixes • trail mix continued to soar in the snack category • antioxidant mixes can be a tasty, nutritious, and energy-boosting

snack • consumers continue to create their own mix by adding items

individually to their favorites

description pack size east item # west item #

mix, antioxidant 15lb 177521-2 08608

mix, athletes 15lb 177519-6 08260

mix, double chocolate trek, organic 15lb 177524-6 08774

mix, goji power, organic 15lb 177526-1 09105

trail mix, fruit & nut, organic 15lb 177516-2 04581

trail mix, organic 15lb 177518-8 08178



Nuts & Seeds with Organic Flavors • sriracha: hot sauce straight from Thailand • tequila lime: red bell peppers, tequila, and lime with a pinch of salt • apple & honey: cinnamon, nutmeg, and honey with crisp red and

green apples • fiesta taco: classic Mexican flavors like spicy jalapeño and chili powder

description pack size east item # west item #

almonds, buffalo hot wing 15lb 179014-6 01300 almonds, sriracha, organic 15lb 179001-3 01293

almonds, apple honey, organic 15lb 179004-7 01295

pumpkin seeds, tequila lime, organic 15lb 179007-0 01296 sunflower seeds, fiesta taco, organic 15lb 179003-9 01294 mix, sweet & heat trail sriracha 15lb 179011-2 01298

bulk review

holiday recap


32% nuts

contribution to bulk sales

• nuts still dominate the bulk category • almonds led the way with more than 35% of the sales • sales driven through the quarter by baking needs and gift baskets • dried fruit (+3%) consumption is at its overall highest level in years, with raisins,

dates, prunes and apricots leading the way

TOP 5 Q4 NUTS description pack size east item # west item #

walnuts,og2,hvs/pcs 25lb 0637843 03544 almonds,og1,raw 25lb 0623702 03507

almonds,og1,diced,btr stk 20lb 0956441 03516

cashews,og2,whl,raw 25lb 0659326 03551 walnuts,hvs/pcs,raw 25lb 0296020 03494

15 Trends Q4 2015

strong growth trends

UNFI natural channel

16 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends

tuna good source of protein and Omega-3s, mild flavor, firm texture

sustainable fishing practices

albacore

Henry & Lisa’s Caught on family boats by hook & line, tuna is quickly processed in small batches. With five times more omega-3s than most brands.

Wild Planet Hand packed with no added oil, water, or fillers. Averages 800mg EPA and omega-3s per serving.

Natural Sea White Albacore Tuna is wild-caught, non-GMO certified, and meets sustainable fishing guidelines.


cashews nutritionally 2nd to almonds: healthy fats & zero cholesterol

extremely versatile - often used to replace dairy

crazy for

Go Macro Organic Cashew Butter Bar and Larabar Cashew Cookie Bar – both contain minimal ingredients and are vegan and non-GMO verified.

Treeline Garlic Herb Cheese saw over 70% growth. This creamy, spreadable, dairy-free, raw, probiotic, non-GMO verified nut spread is for vegans and non-vegans alike.

So Delicious Unsweetened Cashew Milk provided a new creamy, indulgent and shelf-stable dairy-free option. It saw over 50% growth this quarter.


stevia 200 times stronger than sugar

zero calories with zero GI index - a natural choice for diabetics

sweetened with

Steaz Zero Calorie Raspberry Iced Tea is made with organic, fair trade certified tea and boasts a delicious, tart raspberry flavor without sugar, carbs, or calories.

Virgil’s Dr. Better Zero is an updated version of the original Dr. Better. No calories, carbs, or caffeine. Hand crafted.

Zevia Zero Calorie Orange Soda quenched thirsts across the U.S. The only naturally sweetened orange soda on the market. No calories, sugar free.

Lily’s Stevia-sweetened Dark Chocolate Almond Bar has fewer calories than other 55% cocoa dark chocolates. Made with fair trade certified chocolate, allowing consumers to indulge without guilt. Gluten-free.


burgers vegetarian & vegan meals are increasingly popular

quick, delicious, versatile & easy to prepare

bring on the

Hilary’s Eat Well Black Rice Burgers and Root Veggie Burgers flew out of freezers. Vegan, allergen friendly, Non-GMO Project Verified and B-Corp certified.

Gardein Black Bean Burgers saw triple digit growth in the SPINSscan Natural Channel. Vegan, gluten free and Non-GMO Project Verified, as well as delicious.

Hot Dang Grain Burger Big Tex and Original varieties saw over 80% growth - a new veggie burger option in the freezer.

Sweet Earth Santa Fe and Teriyaki Veggie Burgers are packed with protein and fiber, and low in fat – everything consumers are looking for. They are vegan and Non-GMO Project Verified, too. Plant-based.


waters new innovations following booming success of coconut waters

add variety to your functional beverage set

plant

Alo Comfort Watermelon Peach flavor is the latest success in the Alo line, posting over 50% growth. It’s packed with amino acids, vitamins, and minerals.

Happy Tree Maple Water provides hydration with half the calories of coconut water. It is rich in B vitamins and electrolytes. Nothing added. Never heated.

True Nopal Cactus Water has half the calories and sugar of coconut water. It hydrates with a combination of antioxidants and electrolytes.

World Waters Watermelon Water utilizes blemished fruit that would otherwise be discarded to make their cold pressed, delicious, water.


snacks innovative products to help people get more veggies into their diets

a nationwide hit

veggie

Dr. Praeger’s Broccoli and Spinach Pancakes posted impressive sales across the SPINSscan Natural Channel. Offers the crispiness of hash browns with the nutrition of spinach and broccoli.

Earths Best Baked Gluten Free Nuggets, are fortified with iron, zinc, and B vitamins. They were gobbled up by the pickiest eaters. Available in Broccoli & Cheese and Sweet Potato.

Veggie Fries Carrot & Potato Fries and Broccoli & Potato Fries added a new, healthier twist by boasting 3g protein. These fries are gluten free and non-GMO certified.

Veggie Chips from The Daily Crave & Snikiddy Korean BBQ Veggies Chips were wins for the chip category. Both grew over 50%.

Good Health Sea Salt Veggie Straws are packed with vitamins from tomatoes, spinach, beets, broccoli, and carrots. A snack to feel good about.


hot sriracha exploded in 2015 and continues to tantalize taste buds

sriracha has opened the door for spicy counterparts

some like it

Evol Burritos: Chicken Chipotle Big Burrito, Egg & Green Chile Breakfast Burrito, and Spicy Bacon, Egg, Potato & Jalapeño Breakfast Burrito had consumers covered morning until night.

Red Chipotle Beef & Bean Burrito posted triple digit growth. This spicy burrito option is entirely organic and packs 14g of protein.

Just Mayo posted strong numbers with both their Sriracha Premium Mayo and Chipotle Premium Mayo. Egg, dairy, nut, soy, and gluten free.

Sir Kensington Sriracha & Gourmet Chipotle Mayo varieties were wins this quarter. This is a traditional style of mayonnaise made with cage free eggs and sunflower oil.

Sweet Earth Chipotle Seitan Strips are a protein-rich meat alternative with that smoky, spicy flavor consumers are seeking.


laundry liquid the soothing, refreshing aroma of lavender is a natural for laundry liquid.

lavender

Earth Friendly Ecos Ultra Liquid Lavender Laundry Detergent is a concentrated liquid with a built-in fabric softener. It posted over 50% growth this quarter.

Ecover Lavender Fields Laundry Liquid is a biodegradable, super concentrated formula and that works well even in cold water. Packaged in plastic made from sugar cane.

Mrs. Meyer’s Clean Day Lavender Laundry Liquid 2x boasts a great natural lavender scent that is gentle on sensitive skin; the 64oz size posted triple digit growth.

Seventh Generation Blue Eucalyptus & Lavender Liquid Laundry 2x is tough on stains while gentle on the earth. It’s one of the first to have the USDA Certified Biobased certification (meaning ingredients come from renewable biological sources).


entertaining delicious appetizers & compostable, disposable wares

these items often see seasonal sales increases – remember them for upcoming holidays

easy

Antipasto platters overflowed with Divina Stuffed Olives, Jeff’s Naturals Organic Roasted Red Pepper Strips, Maille Cornichons, and Woodstock Kosher Dills. While great at any time of year, an easy, delicious, nearly instant platter can be created straight from the jar in minutes.

Susty Party provided festive Red Party Plates, Repurpose had a High Heat Utensil Pack, and World Centric’s Hot & Cold Cups together averaged over 80% growth this holiday season, allowing for guilt free, easy, post party clean-up.

top new items UNFI natural channel

25 Trends Q4 2015

26 Trends Q4 2015 – Top New Items

servings consumers seeking convenience

quick, healthy meals or snacks enjoyed anytime, anywhere

single

Bob’s Red Mill Oatmeal Cups are the first instant meal from Bob’s. All are gluten free and contain flax and chia to boost nutrition. Available in Apple Cinnamon, Blueberry Hazelnut, Brown Sugar & Maple, and Classic.

Think! Protein Bites in Chocolate Almond, Peanut Butter, Chocolate Nut & Salted Caramel are unwrapped, bite-sized bars. They are perfect anytime you need an energy boosting snack.

Lilly’s Hummus Roasted Red Pepper Hummus 4 Pack is perfectly portioned in convenient 2oz single servings to provide an instant protein rich snack.

Evol Fajita Cups: Sriracha Queso Grilled Chicken and Grilled Chicken with Beans, Rice & Veggies are made with chicken raised without antibiotics. Gluten free with 10g of protein and 3-4g fiber. This is as healthy as heat and eat gets.


mixes busy lives can make it difficult to find the time to bake from scratch

these companies have you covered

baking

Boulder Cookie Paleo! New almond flour based Paleo Pancake, Paleo Brownie, and Paleo Cookie mixes should be in your baking aisle. All are gluten free, vegan, and low glycemic.

Cherryvale Farms Oatmeal Cookie mix is “Make it. Bake it. Love it.” 24 Non-GMO Project Verified, peanut, dairy, and egg free cookies are ready in minutes to cure all of your cookie cravings.

Bella Gluten Free Cookie, Scone, Roll, Biscuit, Brownie, and Pizza Crust mixes are Non-GMO Project Verified cup-to-table mixes that are ready in under 30 minutes.


treats consumers want healthier choices, even with candy & chocolate

indulge in the cleanest, purest options on the market

sweet

Simply Gum Available in a slew of flavors, this gum uses only six 100% natural, non-synthetic ingredients. Completely biodegradable.

Cocomels Organic Coconut Milk & Sea Salt Caramels are a perfect mix of sweet and salty with luscious caramel. Artisan made in copper kettles.

Madècasse Dark Chocolate Discs are available in 63%, 70%, and 100% Cocoa. For snacking straight from the bag or use in recipes. Made with heirloom cocoa from Madagascar


beverages Innovative companies embrace emerging trends with superfoods: coconut, matcha, turmeric, and sprouted nuts

cutting edge

Malk Pure Pecan Chocolate Malk, Pecan Malk & Cold Brewed Coffee, and Unsweetened Cashew Malk are organic cold-pressed nut milks made from sprouted nuts. Great as a beverage or in favorite recipes.

Uncle Matt’s Organic juice with superfoods in 3 flavors - Orange Coconut, Matcha Lemonade, and Orange Turmeric juices. Coconut provides a good source of iron, phosphorus, and zinc. Matcha is rich in antioxidants, and turmeric has anti-inflammatory effects – no matter what the choice is, it’s a great way to start the day.


flavors seasonally popular flavors like pumpkin, warm spices, and apples popped in Q4 fall

Way Better Snacks Oh Snap! Ginger Snap Tortilla Chips have pieces of crystalized ginger. Chips are made with sprouted grains, beans, and seeds.

Mi-Del Gluten Free Gingerbread Men offered a spicy option for gluten sensitive consumers this fall.

Noosa Yoghurt Crisp Apple & Tart Cranberries are deliciously paired. And, Pumpkin is a take on traditional pie, mixed with warm, rich spices in yogurt form.

The Honest Co Orange Cypress Scented Soy Candles filled homes with the scents of the season. They are hand poured in small batches with no synthetic fragrances or perfumes.

Tate’s Gingersnap Cookies worked warm, spicy magic on consumers in this quarter.

Cookies for everyone!

year-end review UNFI natural channel

31 Trends Q4 2015

Trends Q4 2015 – Year-End Review 32

TREND

Paleo

Jerky

Grass Fed

Bites & Bars

High Protein Content

Nutrition Bars

Baking Mixes

Nuts & Seeds

Meal Replacement

Drinks

Sriracha

Condiment

Ingredient

Heart Healthy

Oils

Avocado

Coconut

Olive

Omegas, Hemp, Chia &

Flax

Drinks

Cold Brewed Coffee

HPP Processed

Energy Beverages

Plant Waters

Popcorn

All forms & flavors

Beans

Snacks

As An Ingredient

Bulk

Vegan

Meat Alternatives

Cheeses

Nut & Grain Milks

2015 in review

looking forward UNFI natural channel

33 Trends Q4 2015

34 Trends Q4 2015 – Looking Forward

Identifying trends over the past year can give you insight into areas that may continue to expand in the future. Trends often cross paths and come and go in waves.

The applications are endless. Look for new products to keep the mix fresh, keep customers satisfied, and to cross over into all areas of the store.

What areas don’t do well? How can they become successful in 2016? Refresh the mix, reset the area, make sure there is proper signage and demos where appropriate.

We’ve seen the Cross-Fit and Paleo lifestyles change what consumers seek. Keep an eye out for upcoming new diets that may shape customers’ purchasing habits.

learn from the past

new diets nuts

& seeds

think outside the box

35 Trends Q4 2015 – Looking Forward

Thoughtful monthly promotions can generate significant sales. Themes for each month paired with corresponding products can be a win for retailers and customers alike. Don’t forget to cross merchandise interdepartmentally.

• American Heart Month • African-American History Month • Cherry Month • Hot Breakfast Month • Potato Lover’s Month • Snack Food Month • Chocolate Month • Dental Health Month

• Nutrition Month • Frozen Food Month • Women’s History Month • Caffeine Awareness Month • Noodle Month • Peanut Month

• Oatmeal Month • Hot Tea Month • Soup Month • Diet Month • Eye Care Month • Walk Your Pet Month • Cancer Prevention Month

january february march

prepare for the future

products featured

36 Trends Q4 2015

Trends Q4 2015 - Featured Products 37

Featured Products

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