QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS Q2 2014/15QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS 1 October to 31 December...

1 October to 31 December 2014

QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS Q2 2014/15

QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS 1 October to 31 December 2014

1 October to 31 December 2014 QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS

QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS 1 October to 31 December 2014 1

2 1 October to 31 December 2014 QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS


80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

INDEX 100 = 07/08 Q1

80859095

100105110115120125130

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

MV Licences RUC Licences DL Renewals & New Drivers

INDEX 100 = 08/09

80

90

100

110

120

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Heavy Vehicles All Vehicles

INDEX 100 = 08/09 Q3


80

90

100

110

120

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Auckland Wellington Canterbury Rest of New Zealand

INDEX 100 = 08/09 Q3

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

INDEX 100 = 09/10 Q1

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Auckland Canterbury Wellington Rest of New Zealand

INDEX 100 = 09/10 Q1


90

100

110

120

130

140

150


09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Transport Agency Network Outcomes Index (excl. bitumen)

Transport Agency Bitumen Price Index

INDEX 100 = 09/10 Q2

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Building Construction Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

INDEX 100 = 09/10 Q2

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190


09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Bus Ferry Rail

INDEX 100 = 09/10 Q1


http://beta.nzta.govt.nz/driver-licences/

http://beta.nzta.govt.nz/driver-licences/


0

100

200

300

400

Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14

Overall outcomes: fatalities

persons killed in road crashes

0

4

8

12

16

20


Alcohol and drugs

deaths or serious injuries in alcohol/drug crashes, per 100,000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000


Speed

deaths or serious injuries in open road crashes

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Roads and roadsides

deaths or serious injuries in headon/runoff road crashes

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Motorcycling

ACC entitlement claims from motorcyclists

0

20

40

60

80


Young drivers

killed or seriously injured, per 100,000 15-24 yr olds


0

50

100

150

200

250

300


High risk drivers

disq/unlic/racing/evading drivers in fatal/serious crashes

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


New cars and light commercials

percentage of new vehicles with 5 star safety…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


Heavy vehicles

fatal/serious crashes, HMV primary contibutor

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


Restraints

vehicle occupants killed, restraints not used

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Walking and cycling

peds + cyclists hospitalised >1d, per 100,000 pop. cyclists

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Older road users

75+ years, killed or seriously injured, per 100,000 75+ yr olds

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Fatigue and distraction

deaths or serious injuries in fatigue/distraction crashes


0

10

20

30

40

50

Alcohol and drugs Young drivers Speed Motorcyclists Head-on/run off road

Northland and Auckland

2010 2011 2012 2013 12m to Sep14

0

10

20

30

40

50


Waikato and Bay of Plenty

2010 2011 2012 2013 12m to Sep14

0

10

20

30

40

50


Central

2010 2011 2012 2013 12m to Sep14

0

10

20

30

40

50


Southern

2010 2011 2012 2013 12m to Sep14


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFcLUCtUAzc


http://www.nzta.govt.nz/planning/investment/far-review/index.html


»

»

+

»

+

+

»

+


Lik

elih

oo

d


$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

$16,000,000

J A S O N D J F M A M J

Avg 4YR Mthly Profile Actual 14/15 + F/cast Actual 13/14

Actual 12/13 14/15 Work programme


(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

NZTA Cash Requirements ($M)NLTF Cash Balance

Actual + Revised Forecast as at 9 Jan 2015

NLTP 2012-15 Forecast

Borrowing (Actual and Planned)

Max borrowing limit


.


Project Investment Period Notes

1. Debt Commitments

Tauranga Eastern Link $107m 35yrs Planned draw down of $85m for the road and $22m for the tolling infrastructure from the NZDMO for repayment over the following 35 years from tolling revenue. Repayment rate impacted by the traffic volumes and interest rates.

Christchurch Rebuild $185m peak

9yrs Borrowing from NZDMO for Christchurch Earthquake expenditure above the $50m per annum NLTP funding in the next 3 to 4 years repaid over the subsequent 5 or 6 years.

Auckland Accelerated Initiatives $375m 10yrs

Northern Corridor, Southern Corridor, SH20A. Funding to be by way of an advance on cash flows of $375m from the NZDMO with the interest written off to the Crown. The loan funds to cover all three of the current SH projects. Further funding may be considered for additional accelerated works such as the East/West Corridor and AMETI.

Transmission Gully (PPP) $1.0b 31yrs

Construction to occur over the next 6 years with an operating phase of the following 25 years. The Agency has entered into an interest rate swap with the NZDMO to fix the interest rate obligation over the period of the PPP providing certainty over this period. The unitary payments are approx. $120 m per annum (a total commitment over the 25 years of $3b).

2. Other Commitments

Auckland Electrical Multiple Units $200m 35yrs Committed contribution over a 35 year period matching expected useful life of the assets.

Auckland Depots $50m 50yrs Committed contribution over a 50 year period.

Wellington Matangi Electric Multiple Units

$85m 28yrs Committed contribution over a 28 year period matching expected useful life of the assets.


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Long Term Debt Commitments to Finance Ratio

Current

10% Borrowing Repayments NLTF

10% on NLTF High Forecast

10% on NLTF Low Forecast

$m

10% threshold values are derived from the MBU 2014 forecast to 2023/24, out years extrapolated at 2% low, 3% mid, 4% high

Transmission Gully


•

•

•


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT

STATUS VARIANCE COMMENTARY

OUTLOOK

STATUS

Delivery


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥

SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≤


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

ASSESSMENT OF

INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAST

ACTUALS

FOR THE 12

MONTHS TO

30/09/14

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥


ASSESSMENT OF

INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAST

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

ASSESSMENT OF

INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAST

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥

≥


SERVICE DELIVERY

MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

ASSESSMENT OF

INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAST

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥

ASSESSMENT OF

INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAST

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS


SERVICE DELIVERY MEASURES

2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS



2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT

PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAS

T

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS



2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥


PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAS

T

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥

≥



2014/15

TARGET

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥

≥



PERFORMANCE

2014/15

FORECAST

Q2 YTD

ACTUAL

CURRENT


OUTLOOK

STATUS

≥


Delivery


Status

QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS Q2 2014/15QUARTERLY RESULTS AND INSIGHTS 1 October to 31 December...

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