QLFS Q1: 2018

Quarterly Labour

Force Survey

Q1:2018Faizel Mohammed

Stats SA

QLFS Q1: 2018

UnemployedEmployed

16,4 6,02,8

12,5Other NEA

The labour market Q1:2018

Not Economically Active*

dis

co

ura

ge

d

wo

rk s

ee

ke

rs

15,3 million

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed

and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged

job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.

Cannot be in two groups at the same time

Labour force

22,4 million

37,7 millionPeople of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)

M

M

M

Employed Unemployed

South Africa’s

official

unemployment rate

stands at

26,7%

M

Unchanged btw

Q4 2017 and Q1 2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

0M

5M

10M

15M

20M

25M

30M

35M

40M

2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1 Changes

2008

- 403 000 q/q

+ 206 000 q/q

+ 100 000 q/q

Other Not Economically Active

Unemployed

Employed

La

bo

ur

Fo

rce

There was an increase of 153 000 people of working age in South Africa

(15 – 64 year olds) between Q4:2017 and Q1:2018

Q1 2018

+ 249 000 q/qDiscouraged work seekers

No

t E

co

no

mic

ally

Ac

tive

QLFS Q1: 2018

EMPLOYMENT

&

LABOUR MARKET RATES

QLFSQ1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market dashboard Q1:2018

14,4 M

16,4 M

0 M

5 M

10 M

15 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45,8%43,5%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number

of

employed

Absorption

rate

59,6%60,5%

58,8%

59,3%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Labour

force

participation

rate*

The number of employed people increased from

14,4 million in Q1:2008 to 16,4 million in Q1:2018.

Absorption rate increased in Q1:2018 to 43,5% (q/q)

and has not recovered to level of 45,8% since 2008

The labour force participation rate increased by 0,5 percentage points to 59,3% in

Q1:2018 from Q4 2017.

*Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed.

*Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed.

QLFS Q1: 2018

71,3%

82,2%

48,0%

34,3%

43,5%

15,6%

7,9%

28,2%

31,1%

26,7%

84,5%

89,2%

66,8%

49,8%

59,3%

-0,2

0,7

1,3

-1,4

1,4

-2,6

-0,5

0,5

1,9

-2,9

0,7

-0,9

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Labour market rates by education level

Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

Labour market rates vary significantly depending

on education level

QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market rates by age groupThe unemployment rate for those aged 25-34

is double that of the 45-54 year olds.

52,4%

33,0%

20,9%

16,1%

8,9%

26,7%

15-24 yrs

25-34 yrs

35-44 yrs

45-54 yrs

55-64 yrs

15-64 yrs

25,6%

73,8%

80,9%

74,0%

45,8%

59,3%

12,2%

49,4%

64,0%

62,1%

41,8%

43,5%

0,6

0,5

0,0

-0,4

1,3

0,7

0,2

0,7

0,8

-0,5

1,0

0,7

0,8

0,9

-0,3

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

44,8%

33,5%

53,3%

53,6%

52,4%

Othertertiary

Graduates

Matric

Less thanmatric

Total

23,3%

10,2%

33,0%

39,0%

33,0%

8,1%

4,7%

16,0%

22,7%

17,6%

Unemployment rate by education level and age groupThe unemployment rate among the

youth is higher irrespective of education

level

0,0

2,7

7,5

2,0

-0,6

0,7

-0,5

-2,4

0,5

-0,1

1,0

-1,0

15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years

Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR

TRAINING

(NEET)

QLFSQ1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

EducationWork

NEET

Those young people

(15-24 years) who are

categorised as NEET

are considered to be

disengaged from both

work and education.

Not in Employment, Education or Training

Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific

working-age population

QLFS Q1: 2018

-5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0

2018 Q1

Approx. 3,3 million (32,4%) out of

10,3 million young people aged 15-24, were

not in employment, education or training.

Female NEETUp 1,0 Percentage Point

Male NEETDown 0,9 of a Percentage Point

Not in Employment, Education or Training NEET (15-24 years) by sex

35,3%29,6%

30,5% 34,3%

The overall NEET rate

remained unchanged in

Q1: 2018 compared to Q1:

2017 at 32,4%

2017 Q1

32

,4%

QLFS Q1: 2018

Not in Employment, Education or Training : Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q1 2017 – Q1 2018)

26,9%

28,6%

29,1%

29,4%

32,4%

34,4%

35,9%

36,4%

37,0%

37,4%

WC

FS

LP

GP

RSA

EC

MP

KZN

NW

NC

(+1,8)

(-1,8)

(0,0)

(+0,2)

(+0,3)

(0,0)

(-0,9)

(+2,5)

(-2,2)

(-1,2)

( ) Y/Y Change

QLFS Q1: 2018

EMPLOYMENT

QLFSQ1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

Employment Q1:2018- Q/Q changes

16,4mOf people aged 15 – 64 years were employed in Q1:2018 (+206 000 q/q)

Q/Q Q/QQ/Q

111 000 93 000 - 3 000

Q/Q

AgriculturePrivate

householdsFormal Sector

(Non agricultural)

Informal Sector

(Non agricultural)

5 000

(11,4 million jobs) (2,9 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs) (847 000 jobs)

Increased byIncreased by Increased by Decreased by

QLFS Q1: 2018

0 5 10 15 20 25

Other

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Transport

Private households

Construction

Manufacturing

Finance

Trade

Services

Employment shares, Q1:2018

0,1%

0,9%

2,4%

5,2%

5,9%

7,8%

8,7%

11,3%

14,7%

20,0%

23,1%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Share of GDP

(Q4: 2017)

22,0%

16,8%

21,8%

13,8%

3,8%

9,6%

1,6%

8,3%

2,3%

Employment and GDP share per industry

Construction, Trade, Agriculture and Services have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution

QLFS Q1: 2018

-41

-14

-6

-3

5

30

36

40

58

95

Transport

Mining

Utilities

Agriculture

Private households

Finance

Trade

Construction

Manufacturing

Services

Quarter-to-quarter change (‘000)

-75

-50

-45

-28

-4

-2

24

59

69

216

Construction

Mining

Private households

Agriculture

Transport

Utilities

Finance

Manufacturing

Trade

Services

Year-on-year change (‘000)

Employment changes by industryThe biggest employment gains were recorded in the Services,

Manufacturing and Construction industries, quarter-to-quarter

QLFS Q1: 2018

Q/Q Q/QQ/Q

SERVICESCONSTRUCTIONMANUFACTURING TRADE

95 000 40 000

Q/Q

Mainly driven by gains in:

Health and social work

Public administration and

defence activities

Activities of membership

organisations, NEC.

Recreational , cultural and

sporting activities

Mainly driven by gains in:

Building installation

Mainly driven by gains in:

Manufacture of basic

metals

Manufacture of coke,

chemicals, rubber and

plastic

Manufacture of textiles,

clothing and leather goods

Mainly driven by gains in:

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

58 000 36 000

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains

QLFS Q1: 2018

- 41 000

Q/Q Q/Q

- 6 000

Q/Q

Mainly driven by losses in:

Other land transport.

Railway transport

Air transport

Transport UtilitiesMining

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses

Mainly driven by losses in:

Collection, purification

and distribution of water

Manufacture of gas

Mainly driven by losses in:

Mining of :

Non-ferrous metal ores

Stone quarrying, clay and

sandpits

Diamonds

-14 000

QLFS Q1: 2018

0,4%

5,3%

6,1%

8,3%

8,6%

8,7%

10,7%

12,2%

16,4%

23,3%

Other

Skilled agriculture

Professional

Domestic worker

Plant and machine…

Technician

Manager

Clerk

Craft and related trade

Sales and services

Elementary

Employment share by occupation, Q1:2018

Close to a third of all people

employed in Q1:2018 were

employed in

elementary and domestic work

occupations

QLFS Q1: 2018

Formal sector employment decreased by

144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter

Formal sector employment has shown an

upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in

Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q3:2017

Formal sector employment

9,9 M11,2 M

11,4 M

0 M

2 M

4 M

6 M

8 M

10 M

12 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Formal sector employment has shown an

upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in

Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

2,4 M

2,8 M

2,9 M

0 M

2 M

4 M

6 M

8 M

10 M

12 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Informal sector employment has increased

from 2,4 million in Q1:2008 to

2,9 million in Q1:2018

Informal sector employment

QLFS Q1: 2018

UNEMPLOYMENT

QLFSQ1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market dashboard

4,4 M 5,9 M

6,0 M

0 M

1 M

2 M

3 M

4 M

5 M

6 M

7 M

8 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4

million in Q1:2008 to 6,0 million in Q1:2018

Number of unemployed people

57,0%68,5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0%

in Q1:2008 to 68,5% in Q1:2018

Long term unemployment*

* Unemployed for a year or longer

QLFS Q1: 2018

23,2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018

30,9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6,0 millionpeople were unemployed in Q1:2018

An increase of 100 000 q/q

9,5 millionpeople were unemployed in Q1:2018

An increase of 264 000 q/q

28,8%

25,1%

SA: 26,7%

40,6%

33,2%

SA: 36,7%

Expanded Definition includes the following

- Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,0 M

- Available to work but are/or

• Discouraged work-seekers 2,8 M

• Have other reasons for not searching 0,7 M

Official Unemployment Rate

26,7% (0,0% Point Change Q/Q)

Expanded Unemployment Rate

36,7% (+0,4 % Point Change Q/Q) Q1

:20

18

Q1

:20

18

QLFS Q1: 2018

6,7%

9,2%

23,5%

30,0%

26,7%

6,9%

11,8%

22,7%

30,1%

26,7%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

Black African

Both sexes

Unemployment rateby Population group

Q1:2018 Q4:2017

5,1%

9,0%

23,3%

28,0%

24,8%

6,8%

11,5%

24,3%

27,9%

25,1%

Male unemployment rateBy Population Group

Official unemployment rate by population group and sex

Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%.

8,8%

9,6%

23,8%

32,4%

29,0%

7,1%

12,5%

21,0%

32,6%

28,8%

Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%.

QLFS Q1: 2018

8,5%

14,9%

29,1%

40,7%

36,3%

9,8%

18,2%

27,5%

41,0%

36,7%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

Black African

Both sexes

Expanded unemployment rate by population group

Q1:2018 Q4:2017

6,1%

13,1%

28,0%

37,0%

32,8%

8,8%

15,9%

28,4%

37,0%

33,2%

Male expandedunemployment rate

Expanded unemployment rate by population group and sex

11,6%

18,2%

30,3%

44,8%

40,3%

11,0%

21,9%

26,6%

45,4%

40,6%

Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Irrespective of sex Black

Africans and Coloured

population groups remain

vulnerable in the labour market

QLFS Q1: 2018

19,7%

19,9%

22,3%

25,8%

26,7%

28,6%

29,5%

32,4%

32,8%

35,6%

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0

Western Cape

Limpopo

KwaZulu Natal

North West

South Africa

Gauteng

Northern Cape

Mpumalanga

Free State

Eastern Cape

(+0,3)

(+3,5)

(-1,8)

(-0,5)

(+0,2)

(+1,9)

(+0,5)

(+0,2)

(0,0)

( ) Q/Q Change

(+2,4)

Only two provinces (GP and KZN) showed decreases in their unemployment rate

between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018

Provincial unemployment rate: Official Q1: 2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

22,5%

37,6%

40,6%

41,8%

36,7%

33,6%

41,0%

42,5%

38,4%

46,0%

19,7%

19,9%

22,3%

25,8%

26,7%

28,6%

29,5%

32,4%

32,8%

35,6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Western Cape

Limpopo

KwaZulu Natal

North West

South Africa

Gauteng

Northern Cape

Mpumalanga

Free State

Eastern Cape

Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q1: 2018

EC has the highest unemployment rate based on either the official or expanded definition

Limpopo, KZN and NW Provinces all have more than 15% points difference between thier expanded and official

definitions

17,7% Point Difference

18,3% Point Difference

15,9% Point Difference

Official Expanded

QLFS Q1: 2018

UNDERSTANDING

NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE

(NEA)

QLFSQ1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

Student40,1%

Discouraged work seekers

18,2%

Home-maker

16,5%

Illness/disability; 10,2%

Too old/young to work; 9,4%

Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 % Change5 main reasons for NEA

Non-economically active (NEA)N

EA

M

M

M

M

15,3 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active. A decrease of 154 000 q/q

15,3 M

Quarter-on-quarter changes

Thousand

Student -204

Homemaker -149

Illness/disability -15

Too young/too old to work -16

Discouraged work seekers 249

Other -19

Down

0,9 %

Point

Up 1,8 %

Point

Down

0,8 %

Point

No

Change

No

Change

Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Change in Figures

QLFS Q1: 2018

RECAP

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

EMPLOYMENT GAINS

EMPLOYMENT LOSSES

NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION AND

TRAINING

Unemployment rate remained unchanged at

26,7% while

absorption rate and labour force participation rate increased by 0,4 and 0,5 of a percentage point respectively

Largest employment gains were recorded in

Community and social services (95 000),Manufacturing (58 000) and Construction (40 000).

Employment losses were

observed in Transport (41 000), Mining (14 000), Utilities (6 000) and Agriculture (3 000)

Of the 10,3 million persons aged (15-24 years) 32,4% were not in employment, education or training.

Q1:2018

QLFS Q1: 2018

THANK YOU

QLFSQ1:2018