Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017

Source: QLFS, Q2:2017

Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2017

Dr Pali LehohlaStatistician-General

#StatsSA


South African Labour Market: Current state vs NDP target


Unemployment The unemployment rate has been around the 25% level since 2010


NDP Targetunemployment

in 2030 6%

27,7%current unemployment rate

14%NDP Targetunemployment in 2020

Gap in reaching 2030 NDP target:

21,7 percentage points




Employment Labour Force Participation Rate

16,1 millionin Q2:2017

24 million2030

NDP target

59,9%in Q2:2017

65% 2030

NDP target


7,9 million

Absorption Rate

43,3%in Q2:2017

61%2030

NDP target







Labour marketQ2:2017


22,3 million(down by 150 000 q-q)

Labour force


Employed


Unemployed

14,9 million(up by 306 000 q-q)

Not economically active*

*Of which 2,4 million were discouraged work

seekers( up by 83 000 q-q)

37,2 million(up by 157 000 q-q)

people of working age in South Africa

(15 – 64 year olds)

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers).

3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time

NDP target 2030 Employment:

24 million

The labour market Q2:2017


Employment&

Labour market rates


Absorption rate

• Indicates the proportion of the working-agepopulation (15-64 years) which is currentlyemployed

It is calculated by dividing the number of people employed by the total number of people of

working age (15-64 years).

Example: • For example, of the 37,2 million people of

working age, • 16,1 million were employed in SA, then

employment-to-population ratio is 43,3%

Labour force participation rate

• Represents the share of working-agepopulation that is actively engaged in thelabour market by either being employed oravailable to work, i.e. labour supply

• It is calculated by dividing the number ofpeople in the labour force (employed+unemployed) by the total number ofpeople of working age (15-64 years).

Example• Of the 37,2 million people of working age,

• 22,3 million people were in the labour force in SA,

• The labour force participation rate is 59,9%

Absorption rate and LFPR explained


Total employment changes vs GDP growth rates

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yr-y

r GD

P %

gro

wth

rate

s

Yr-o

n-yr

em

ploy

men

t cha

nges

('00

0)

Yr-on-yr Employment changes Yr-on-yr GDP % changes (RHS)


Labour market dashboardNumber of

employed people decreased from 16,2 million in

Q1:2017 to 16,1 million in

Q2:2017

Labour force participation rate of 59,9% recorded in Q2:2017 after the highest LFPR of

60,5% in Q1:2017.

14,4m16,1m

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Milli

onNumber of employed

45,8%43,3%

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Absorption rate

59,6% 59,9%

50,0

55,0

60,0

65,0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Labour force participation rate

NDP target 2030: 24 million

NDP target 2030:61%

NDP target 2030:65%

Absorption rate was 43,3% in

Q2:2017 and has not recovered to level of 45,8% in

2008


Labour market rates by sex

There are large disparities in the labour market by sex – the unemployment rate for womenis higher than that of males. Women are also less likely to participate in the labour market

29,8%

26,0%

27,7%

29,8%

26,0%

27,7%

Women

Men

Both sexes

Unemployment Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

37,6%

49,1%

43,3%

38,3%

49,3%

43,7%

Women

Men

Both sexes

Absorption Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

53,6%

66,3%

59,9%

54,6%

66,6%

60,5%

Women

Men

Both sexes

Participation Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017


Labour market rates by education level

17,0%

7,4%

27,9%

33,1%

27,7%

17,8%

7,3%

27,5%

33,1%

27,7%

Other tertiary

Graduates

Matric

Less than matric

Total

Unemployment Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

71,1%

82,4%

50,3%

33,2%

43,3%

70,4%

84,0%

50,2%

34,0%

43,7%

Other tertiary

Graduates

Matric

Less than matric

Total

Absorption Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

85,7%

89,0%

69,8%

49,6%

59,9%

85,7%

90,6%

69,3%

50,8%

60,5%

Other tertiary

Graduates

Matric

Less than matric

Total

Participation Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

The less educated one is the more likely it is for one to be unemployed


Labour market rates by age groupYoung people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour market with

unemployment rate of almost 56% and absorption rate of 12%

11,9%

50,2%

63,5%

62,6%

40,6%

43,3%

12,7%

51,0%

63,5%

62,6%

41,3%

43,7%

15-24 yrs

25-34 yrs

35-44 yrs

45-54 yrs

55-64 yrs

15-64 yrs

Absorption Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

26,9%

74,7%

81,7%

74,0%

44,7%

59,9%

27,9%

75,6%

81,3%

74,9%

46,2%

60,5%

15-24 yrs

25-34 yrs

35-44 yrs

45-54 yrs

55-64 yrs

15-64 yrs

Participation Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

55,9%

32,8%

22,3%

15,4%

9,2%

27,7%

54,3%

32,5%

22,0%

16,5%

10,5%

27,7%

15-24 yrs

25-34 yrs

35-44 yrs

45-54 yrs

55-64 yrs

15-64 yrs

Unemployment Rate

Q1:2017 Q2:2017


Unemployment rate by education level and age groupThe unemployment rate among the youth is higher in all educational levels compared to that of adults.

26,8%

44,5%

56,0%

59,2%

55,9%

27,2%

45,1%

53,7%

57,9%

54,3%

Graduates

Other tertiary

Matric

Less than matric

Total

Youth (15-24 years)

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

10,2%

24,8%

29,7%

40,4%

32,8%

8,3%

26,3%

30,2%

39,2%

32,5%

Graduates

Other tertiary

Matric

Less than matric

Total

Youth (25-34 years)

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

4,8%

8,6%

16,5%

23,7%

18,3%

5,4%

8,8%

16,0%

24,3%

18,5%

Graduates

Other tertiary

Matric

Less than matric

Total

Adults (34 -64 years)

Q1:2017 Q2:2017


Profile of those Not in Employment, Education and Training

(NEET)


Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of

youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-

specific working-age population.

Not in Employment, Education and Training

NEET

Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised

as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both

work and education.


NEET (15-24 years) by sex

Of the 10,3 million young people aged

15-24,3,3 million were

NEET.

Q2:2017 NEET rate increased by 1,0 of a

percentage point.

The NEET rate for females and males

increased by 0,7 and 1,2 percentage

points respectively. 30,0%

34,4%

32,2%

28,8%

33,7%

31,2%

Male

Female

Both sexes

Q2:2016 Q2:2017


Provincial NEET rateSouth Africa (15-24 years)

32,2%(+1,0)

NC40,0%(+4,4)

WC28,5%(-0,7)

EC35,6%(+3,3)

NW36,7%(-1,1)

MP33,9%(+1,3)

KZN35,3%(+5,2)

FS32,3%(+0,3)

LP24,8%(-4,3)

GP30,1%(-0,5)

Year-on-year changes


Employment


Employment Q2:2017

Jobs in Private households decreased by

8 000q/q

Informal sector jobs increased by

80 000q/q

to 2,8 million

A net decrease of

113 000 q/q

Formal sector jobsdecreased by

144 000q/q

to 11,2 million

16,1mPeople aged 15 – 64 years were

employed in Q2:2017

NDP target 2030 Employment 24 million

Jobs in the Agricultural sector decreased by

40 000q/q


Employment and GDP share per industryShare of

GDP (Q1:2017)

23,0

15,1

22,2

13,5

3,9

9,4

2,5

8,2

2,30,9%

2,7%

5,2%

5,9%

8,1%

8,7%

11,2%

14,9%

20,3%

22,1%

0,9%

2,8%

5,4%

5,9%

8,1%

9,3%

11,0%

14,7%

19,8%

22,0%

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Transport

Private hholds

Construction

Manufacturing

Finance

Trade

Services

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

Services, Trade and Finance remain the main

contributors to employment and GDP


Employment – changes by industry

Largest employment losses were recorded in Construction and Agriculture quarter-to-quarter.

Largest employment gains were recorded in Finance and Trade year-on-year

Mining was the only industry which shed jobs both qtr-to-qtr and year-on-year.

-110

-40

-13

-11

-9

-8

2

10

17

58

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100

CONSTRUCT ION

AGR ICULTURE

MIN ING

TRANSPORT

SERV I CES

PR IVATE HHOLDS

UT I L I T I E S

MANUFACTUR ING

F INANCE

TRADE

QUARTERONQUARTERCHANGE

-13

7

10

15

16

37

88

92

129

175

-100 0 100 200

MIN ING

CONSTRUCT ION

AGR ICULTURE

PR IVATE HHOLDS

SERV I CES

UT I L I T I E S

MANUFACTUR ING

TRANSPORT

TRADE

F INANCE

YEARONYEARCHANGE


Breakdown of quarter-to-quarter employment changes for selected industries, Q2:2017- Losses

Construction (110 000)

Mainly driven by losses in: :• Building of complete constructions or parts

thereof; civil engineering• Building completion

Mining(13 000)

Mainly driven by by losses in: • Mining of metal ores

• Other mining and quarrying

Transport (11 000)

Mainly driven by losses in: Supporting and auxiliary transport activities;

activities of travel agenciesPostal and related courier activities

Agriculture (40 000)

Mainly driven by losses in: • Growing of crops

• Forestry and related services


Breakdown of year-on-year employment changes for selected industries, Q2:2017 - Gains

Finance(175 000)

Mainly driven by an increase in:• Other business activities• Financial intermediation

+

Manufacturing(88 000)

Mainly driven by an increase in:• Manufacture of basic metals

• Manufacture of wood and product of wood and cock

+

Trade (129 000)

Mainly driven by an increase in:• Hotels and restaurants

• Retail trade

+

Transport(92 000)

Mainly driven by an increase in:• Other land transport

• Postal and related courier activities

• Telecommunication

+


Construction employment vs Building statisticsConstruction employment declined by 110 000 qtr-to-qtr in Q2:2017. The value of building plans passed declined ahead of declining construction employment.

200

400

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1000

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1400

1600

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Constructio

nem

ploymen

t(‘000

)

Valueofbuildingplansp

assedandbu

ildingscom

pleted

(R’billion)

Valueofbuildingplanspassed Valueofbuildingscompleted Constructionemployment(RHS)


Year-on-year mining employment vs mining production

Year-on-year Mining employment declined for three successive quarters

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-30,0

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60

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Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

y/y%changeinm

iningprod

uctio

n

y/ychangeinM

iningem

ployment('000)

y/yemploymentchange %changeinthevalueoftotalmining


Year-on-year manufacturing employment vs manufacturing production

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Y/Y%changeinm

anufacturin

gprod

uctio

n

Y/YEm

ploymentchanges(‘000)

y/yemploymentchange %changeinthevalueoftotalmanufacturing

After five successive year-on-year declines Manufacturing employment increased by 88 000 in Q2:2017 Mainly driven by an increase in:

• Manufacture of basic metals• Manufacture of wood and product of wood and cock


Employment share by occupation, Q2:2008 and Q2:20177,

3%

5,8%

10,6

%

10,5

% 12,6

%

0,7%

14,4

%

8,6%

22,6

%

6,9%9,

1%

5,6%

9,1% 10

,8%

15,2

%

0,4%

12,2

%

8,0%

23,1

%

6,5%

Close to a third of all people employed in Q2:2008 and Q2:2017 were employed inelementary and domestic work occupations

Q2:2008

Q2:2017


Number of employees by contract typeThe highest employment growth was among those with contract of permanent duration quarter

on quarter while employment decreased among those with contract of limited duration both quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year basis.

1 786

8 427

3 400

1 857

8 493

3 408

Limited duration

Permanent nature

Unspecified duration

Q1:2017 Q2:2017

1 786

8 427

3 400

1 775

8 168

3 281

Limited duration

Permanent nature

Unspecified duration

Q2:2016 Q2:2017

Quarter-to-quarter changes Year-on-year changes


Informal sector employment

Informal sector employment declined by 14 000 to 2,7

million in Q1:2017

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million Informal sector employment

increased by 80 000 to 2,8 million in Q2:2017


Formal sector employment

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ion

Formal sector employment decreased by 144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter

9,9m11,2m


Sources of formal sector employment:

Stats SA collects information about formal sector employment from:

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS)and the

Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES)


QES QLFS

collects information from households

collects information from businesses

VS

The two surveys yield different employment estimates because of coverage, sample size, reference periods, concepts and definitions.


Differences between QES and QLFS

Coverage

Payroll of VAT registered businesses in the formal sector (excl. agriculture)

Employees only

Private h/holds & worker’s hostels (excl. institutions)Total employment (+15 years) incl. informal sector,

private h/holds, agriculture & small bus.

QLFS QES

Sample Size

20 000 businesses30 000 dwellings

Payroll last day of quarter1 week before interviewReference

Period

Excluding Agriculture and personal householdsAll industries

SIC

Employees on payroll of VAT registered businesses (with annual turnover greater than R300 000)

Employers and own-account workers reg. for VAT or income tax.

Employees paying income tax & those not paying tax but in firms with 5 or more workers Definition


For comparison QLFS can be adjusted as follows

Exclude employers and own-account workers from formal sector

Exclude Agriculture

Exclude Private households

Employment differences between QES and QLFS


In some cases, even after these adjustments, it is still difficult to align the

• This is partly because the composition and structure of both businesses and households are changing constantly.

• QLFS cannot isolate individuals who work in VAT registered businesses with annual turnover more than R300 000.

QES employment estimates

QLFS&

Employment differences between QES and QLFS


Comparison of QES and QLFS employment

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22013 2014 2015 2016 2017

QLFS 9 711 10 08 10 14 10 17 10 12 10 21 10 31 10 10 10 18 10 30 10 51 10 35 10 22 10 38 10 48 10 62 10 52QES 8 965 8 979 9 009 8 985 9 105 8 947 8 986 8 945 9 293 9 410 9 600 9 702 9 604 9 672 9 692 9 644

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Thou

sand


Unemployment


Official unemployment rate Expanded unemployment rate

The official unemployment rate remained unchanged (q/q)

The expanded unemployment rate increasedby 0,2 of a percentage point (q/q)

6,2 millionpeople were unemployed in Q2:2017

A decrease of 37 000 q/q

9,3 millionpeople were unemployed in Q2:2017

An increase of 13 000 q/q

Expanded unemployment consist of persons 15-64 years who did not have a job and were available to take up a job or start a business in

the reference period (including discouraged work-seekers)

29,8% 26,0% 40,4% 33,3%

by 0,4 of a percentage point q/q

21,5% 27,7%

10,015,020,025,030,035,040,0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017%

28,7%36,6%

10,015,020,025,030,035,040,0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017%

remained unchanged (q/q)remained unchanged (q/q)


Labour market dashboard

The number of unemployed people in

South Africa increased from 4,4

million in 2008 to 6,2 million in Q2:2017

The proportion of those in long-term

unemployment increased from 65,8% in Q1:2017 to 67,2%

in Q2:2017

4,4m

6,2m

0,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Milli

on

Number of unemployed

57,0% 67,2%

10,0

30,0

50,0

70,0

90,0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

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Q1

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Q4

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Q2

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Q1

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Q3

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Q2

Q3

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Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Long term unemployment


Provincial unemployment rateSouth Africa

27,7%(0,0)

NC30,5%(-0,2)

WC20,7%(-0,8)

EC34,4%(+2,2)

NW27,2%(+0,7)

MP32,3%(+0,8)

KZN24,0%(-1,8)

FS34,4%(-1,1)

LP20,8%(-0,8)

GP29,9%(+0,7)

Quarter-to-quarter changes


UnderstandingNon-economically active


Homemaker (looking after

family)

18,0%(up by 0,8 pp

quarter-to-quarter)

Discouraged work-seeker

Too young or too old to work

9,2%

Sick or disabled

10,5%

Student 41,1% (down by 0,1 pp

quarter-to-quarter)

5 main reasons for

NEA

14,9 millionpeople aged 15 – 64 years

were neither employed nor unemployed.

An increase of 306 000 q/q

Non-economically active

15,8% (up by 0,2 pp

quarter-to-quarter)

(down by 0,6 pp quarter-to-

quarter)

(up by 0,1 pp quarter-to-

quarter)


Key findings: Q2:2017

QLFSQ2:2017

NumberofemploymentandunemploymentpersonsdecreasedinQ2:2017.

Thisresultedintheunemploymentrateremainingunchangedinthefirstquarterof2017at27,7%.Proportion of the working age population that is employed (absorption rate) declined by 0,4 of a percentage point to 43,3%.

The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 65,8% in Q1:2017 to 67,2% in Q2:2017.

Young people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour market with an unemployment rate of almost 56% and absorption rate of 11,9%

Largest employment losses were recorded in Construction (110 000) and Agriculture (40 000). However, employment gains were observed in Trade (58 000), Finance (17 000), Manufacturing (10 000) and Utilities (2 000).

NEET rate of young people (15-24 years) increased by 1,0 percentage point to 32,2% in Q2:2017.


Thank you

Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017

Government & Nonprofit

Transcript of Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017