Quarterly Economic

and Statistical

Update

Quarter 3 2019

Economic Affairs

Cabinet Office

November 2019

Key Points

The Quarterly Economic and Statistical Update provides a range of data and indicators about the

performance of the Island’s economy. The data is drawn from a range of sources across the Isle

of Man Government.

This report provides the latest available information as at 30 September 2019 and below are some

of the key points from the report:

The number of people in employment was 35,679, whilst those in self-employment was

8,270.

The total population increased by 479 people compared with 12 months ago, whilst the

number of under 65s increased by 214.

Inflation for the 12 months to September 2019 was 1.1% as measured by the Consumer

Price Index (CPI)

The number of people registered as unemployed as at September was 320, and the 12

month average level of unemployment was 334.

There was 1,272 full time vacancies and 1,124 part time vacancies advertised during the 3

months to September 2019.

492 new work permits and 167 renewals were issued in the 3 months to September 2019.

It should be noted however that work permits will be impacted when exemptions to certain

jobs or sectors are applied or removed. 134 new national insurance numbers were issued

to foreign nationals, which includes anyone outside of the United Kingdom.

The total deposit base was £35.75bn as at June 2019 which was the latest available data,

and Funds under Management amounted to $18.18bn at the same date.

Quarterly Economic and StatisticalUpdateQ3, 2019 | JUL - SEP

Total PopulationEstimate

84,353

Under 65Population Estimate

66,223

NI Numbers toForeign Nationals

134

P o p u l a t i o n

TotalEmployment

35,679

Total Jobs*

53,206

+479 Annually

+119 on last quarter

+214 Annually

+23 on last quarter

+27 Annually

+23 on last quarter

+512 Annually

-122 on last quarter

+1,370 Annually

+491 on last quarter

Unemployment

320

Vacancies

2,396

Work Permits

492-11 Annually

-17 on last quarter

-275 Annually

-57 on last quarter

+23 Annually

+19 on last quarter

Inflation

1.1%

Housing Market -Value

256,399-1.3% Annually

-0.7% on last quarter

-0.4% Annually

-0.4% on last quarter

Housing Market -Transactions**

1,158

PlanningApprovals

345

Lending toBusiness - £'000

448,180

Deposit Base -£bn

35.75

Funds underManagement -$bn 

18.18

-9.1% Annually

-17% on last quarter

+47 Annually

-5 on last quarter

-23% Annually

-2% on last quarter

+4.3% Annually

+1.2% on last quarter

-12% Annually

+0.7% on last quarter

E m p l o y m e n t a n d J o b s

G e n e r a l E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s

* Total Jobs: This represents the total number of jobs linked within the Income Tax system. It is possible for people to havemultiple links where they have multiple jobs or directorships. There are individuals with over 5 links.

Transactions: This data is provisional for 12 months after the date of first publication. The data is based upon the numberof transactions recorded by the Land Registry and there may be a time delay between sale and registration.  The numberof transactions can increase by up to 25% between the first and final estimates.

OECD May 19 Sep 19 Movement

Global 3.2 2.9 -0.3

US 2.8 2.4 -0.4

EU 1.2 1.1 -0.1

UK 1.2 1.0 -0.2

IMF July 19 Oct 19 Movement

Global 3.2 3.0 -0.2

US 2.6 2.4 -0.2

EU 1.3 1.2 -0.1

UK 1.3 1.2 -0.1

Source: https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-…

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

Oct

-18

Nov-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan-1

9

Feb-1

9

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-…

Jun-1

9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

9

OECD May 19 Sep 19 Movement

Global 3.4 3.0 -0.4

US 2.3 2.0 -0.3

EU 1.4 1.0 -0.4

UK 1.0 0.9 -0.1

IMF July 19 Oct 19 Movement

Global 3.5 3.4 -0.1

US 1.9 2.1 0.2

EU 1.6 1.4 -0.2

UK 1.4 1.4 0.0

Growth Forecasts 2019 Growth Forecasts 2020

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and OECD Economic Outlook

Oil Price - Brent Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel)

Interest Rates including projections

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

Oct

-18

Nov-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan-1

9

Feb-1

9

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-1

9

Jun-1

9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

90.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

BOE US Fed

Source: https://uk.investing.com/indices/uk-100-historical-data

Bank of England Base Rate Projections

Equities - FTSE 100

Source: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

Sep-1

7

Oct

-17

Nov-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

Oct

-18

Nov-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan-1

9

Feb-1

9

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-1

9

Jun-1

9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

9

£/Eur £/USD

Exchange Rates

Source: http://www.ukforex.co.uk/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/historical-exchange-rates

Employment

Employment Estimate based on Income Tax records. The decrease between December 2015 and March 2016 was due to a change in the adjustment factor as a result of the 2016 Census*

Population Estimate

Estimated population movement based on the same quarter in the previous year*

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

Sep-1

3

Dec-

13

Mar-

14

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun-1

9

Sep-1

9Total Population Growth Under 65 Population Growth

Isle of Man Inflation Indices

Inflation as at September 2019 was 1.1% under CPI and 1.7% under RPI.

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

RPI

CPI

32,500

33,000

33,500

34,000

34,500

35,000

35,500

36,000

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

For the 12 months to September 2019, the average house price was £279,850, a flat was £144,524

and the weight property price was £256,399. The weighted property price is a weight average of

house and flat prices based on transaction volumes.

Isle of Man Property Market – Prices compared to 12 months ago

Isle of Man Property Market – Property Transactions

For the 12 months to September 2019, 928 houses and 230 flats were sold.

All property market data is based on the latest available data from the Land Registry. There is a time

lag in transactions taking place and being registered with the Land Registry. This is shown by the difference between the first estimate, which is taken at the end of the applicable quarter and the

latest estimates which include transactions which were not lodged until after the first estimate was produced. Data is revised for up to 12 months after the first estimate has been published, after

which point the data is considered final. The number of transactions can increase by 25% between the first estimate and the final estimate 12 months later.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

First Estimate - House Latest Estimate - House

First Estimate - Flat Latest Estimate - Flat

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

House Flat Property Prices

12 Month Rolling Average Electricity Consumption (Units Consumed ‘000s)

For the quarter to September 2019, there were 345 Planning Approvals, while there were 299 Building

Control applications received.

For the 3 months to September 2019, 39.7 million units of electricity were consumed domestically and

53.3 million were consumed for non-domestic purposes.

Planning Approvals and Building Control

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

Planning Approvals Building Control Applications Received

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Sep-1

4

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun-1

9

Sep-1

9

Domestic Non-Domestic

Change in Labour Market compared with 12 months ago

As at September 2019, it is estimated that there was 35,679 persons employed, undertaking 53,206

jobs. It is also estimated that there were 8,270 self-employed individuals.

The Persons Employed and Self-Employed data will include a number of individuals who are both

employed and self-employed.

Size of the Labour Market

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

Persons Employed Jobs Undertaken Self Employed

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Sep-1

4

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun-1

9

Sep-1

9

Persons Employed Jobs Undertaken Self Employed

As at September 2019, 320 individuals were unemployed and 44 individuals have been unemployed for

12 months or greater.

Over the quarter to September 2019, there were 1,272 full time vacancies notified to the Job Centre,

and 1,124 part time vacancies notified.

Movements Onto and Off the Unemployment Register

Unemployment

Vacancies

Over the quarter to September 2019, 358 individuals signed onto the register and 340 signed off,

resulting in a net increase of 18 individuals over the quarter.

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

Unemployed Unemployment 12 Month Moving Average

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Signing On Signing Off Net Change

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

Full Time Part Time

Quarterly Changes in Employment by Sector

Annual Changes in Employment by Sector for Seasonal Industries

The movement in Corporate Service Providers and Other Finance & Business Services is due to a

reclassification of jobs and not due to significant changes in employment in each sector.

-100 -50 - 50 100 150 200

Manufacturing: Engineering

Manufacturing: General

Mining & Quarrying

Utilities

Transport and Communications

Banking

Insurance

Other Finance & Business Services

ICT

Legal & Accountancy Services

Corporate Service Providers

Education

Medical & Health Services

Other Professional Services

Egaming

Miscellaneous Services

Public Administration

-100 -50 0 50 100 150

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Manufacturing: Food & Drink

Construction

Wholesale

Retail

Tourist Accommodation

Catering & Entertainment

Work Permits and National Insurance Numbers to Foreign Nationals

Over the quarter to September 2019 there were 492 new work permits issued, and 167 renewals.

134 national insurance numbers were issued to foreign nationals over the same period. The spike in Quarter 2 2017 was due to technical issues present in Quarter 1 2017 meaning that work permits were not able to be processed until Quarter 2 2017.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

New Permits Renewals NI numbers to Foreign Nationals

51,836 52,350 52,253 52,715 53,206

Economic Sector Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 472 455 455 445 459

Manufacturing: Engineering 878 877 873 857 863

Manufacturing: Food & Drink 2,081 2,035 2,112 2,019 2,026

Manufacturing: General 532 541 543 546 550

Mining & Quarrying 72 70 69 76 78

Construction 2,815 2,827 2,780 2,827 2,858

Utilities 521 524 517 518 514

Transport and Communications 1,829 1,811 1,746 1,816 1,832

Wholesale Distribution 498 489 463 458 456

Retail Distribution 4,525 4,681 4,505 4,467 4,472

Banking 2,174 2,180 2,181 2,145 2,130

Insurance 1,937 1,957 1,976 1,952 1,915

Other Finance and Business Services 3,552 3,287 3,131 3,276 3,315

ICT 1,285 1,283 1,278 1,269 1,284

Legal and Accountancy Services 1,258 1,263 1,229 1,223 1,237

Corporate Service Providers 1,520 1,819 1,843 1,796 1,793

Education 5,666 5,781 5,841 5,966 5,978

Medical and Health Services 7,260 7,384 7,519 7,663 7,813

Other Professional Services 1,590 1,574 1,491 1,571 1,605

Tourist Accommodation 765 710 826 872 892

Catering and Entertainment 2,241 2,255 2,263 2,253 2,316

E-gaming 791 789 780 787 811

Miscellaneous Services 2,695 2,793 2,808 2,782 2,838

Public Administration 4,879 4,965 5,024 5,131 5,171

Total 51,836 52,350 52,253 52,715 53,206

Jobs by Economic Sector – Quarter 3 2019

The data above refers to the number of jobs recorded within the Income Tax system. Individuals

may have multiple links where they have more than one job or directorships. There are some

individuals with over 5 job links within the data.

Number of employees Small Medium Large Very Large

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 135 5 0 0

Manufacturing: Engineering 52 7 1 2

Manufacturing: Food & Drink 67 33 1 1

Manufacturing: General 45 14 0 0

Mining & Quarrying 4 2 0 0

Construction 592 59 2 0

Utilities 3 2 0 1

Transport and Communications 97 29 1 2

Wholesale Distribution 32 16 0 0

Retail Distribution 298 88 2 4

Banking 1 3 3 3

Insurance 28 13 3 3

Other Finance and Business Services 510 69 2 1

Information and Communication Technology

87 14 1 2

Legal and Accountancy Services 121 27 2 0

Corporate Service Providers 34 42 2 1

Education 19 10 0 2

Medical & Health Services 71 33 5 3

Other Professional Services 391 31 1 0

Tourist Accommodation 31 15 2 0

Catering and Entertainment 137 69 1 0

Egaming 15 7 1 1

Miscellaneous Services 552 61 2 0

Public Administration 16 12 0 9

Total 3,338 661 32 35

Very Large: More than 200 employees

Large: 101 to 200 employees

Medium: 10 to 100 employees

Small: 1 to 9 employees

The data provided above only includes currently active employers who are shown as

employing at least 1 person. There are some circumstances where an employer may be

registered for ITIP and NI but does not have any current employees.

Employers by Economic Sector and Size – Quarter 3 2019

o

Deposit Base

The latest available data for bank deposits is for June 2019. Sterling deposits amounted to

£18.74 billion whilst non-Sterling amounted to £17.01 billion. Total deposits amounted to £35.75 billion.

Funds under Management ($ Billion)

The latest available data for funds under management is for June 2019. Funds under management

amounted to $18.18 billion.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-1

6

Apr-

16

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-1

7

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec-

17

Feb-1

8

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

Aug-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec-

18

Feb-1

9

Apr-

19

Jun-1

9

£'B

illi

on

Sterling Non Sterling

0

5

10

15

20

25

As at the September 2019, there were; 11 deposit taking, 42 investment business, and 42 services to

collective investment schemes, 137 corporate services, 102 trust services and 15 other financial

services act licences issued.

During the quarter to September 2019, 201 1931 Act companies were formed, 173 2006 Act

Companies were formed and 17 companies converted to 2006 Act Companies.

Financial Services Act 2008 Licence Holders

New Company Formation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Sep-17 Dec-17Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

Other

Trust Services

Corporate Services

Services to Collective InvestmentSchemes

Investment Business

Deposit Taking

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

1931 Act 2006 Act Conversions to 2006 Act Companies

The latest available figures are for June 2019, household saving was £3.55bn, compared with lending to

households of £1.46bn. Lending to non-financial businesses stood at £0.45bn.

As at September 2019, there were 9,520 2006 Act Companies on the register and 15,982 1931 Act

Companies registered.

Total Registered Companies

Household Saving and Lending to Households and Businesses

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

2006 Act

1931 Act

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Isle of Man Private Household Lending Isle of Man Private Household Savings

Isle of Man Non-Financial Business Lending

Isle of Man Government

Government Office

Bucks Road, Douglas

Isle of Man, IM1 3PN

www.gov.im/