Quantitative Easing 3?
Click here to load reader
-
Upload
catalyst-analytics -
Category
Business
-
view
249 -
download
4
description
Transcript of Quantitative Easing 3?
Catalyst Analytics thinks we will eventually have a
new version of Quantitative Easing – QE 3 – just not
yet. Only mortgage bond proceeds will probably be
continuing past the completion of the $600 billion
injection completed this June.
It will likely appear later in 2011 as the housing
market continues to deteriorate, fiscal stimulus
wanes, negative global impacts hit our one bright
spot of export growth, and stagnant wages in the
lower 4 quintiles of income combine with increased
household food and fuel costs to lower disposable
income – thus keeping GDP low due to weak con‐
sumer demand.
Given an unusual set of circumstances, including
falling commodity prices and a weaker Eurozone,
the precipitation of a temporary strengthening dollar
would stand in and support a flight to treasuries and
take the place of the Fed in their purchase. Such a
scenario could go hand in hand with a major correc‐
tion in equities.
Even if this does not take place, it seems that the po‐
litical climate calls for the Fed to step back for a mo‐
ment. The fed can’t lose in such a move. Chairman
Ben Bernanke would prefer desperate calls for a se‐
quel before instituting QE 3. If it is not needed, then
QE 2 did its job. While the Fed is observing that the
economy is not growing at an optimum rate, it also
seems prudent for the Fed to take a step aside and
watch how the markets adjust. We are in unchar‐
tered waters and there is probably a lot to learn. Be‐
sides, as Bernanke has clearly stated in the past, he
can quickly step back in if need be.
QE 3 Coming This Fall?
Item % Change Last
Year
TVs ‐16.26%
Software ‐9.23%
Computers ‐7.95%
Toys ‐5.46%
Photographic Equipment,
Supplies ‐4.69%
Audio Equipment ‐3.91%
Sports Equipment ‐3.89%
Clothing: Infant and Toddler ‐3.56%
Cell Phone Service ‐3.50%
Audio Disks ‐3.17%
Leased Cars and Trucks ‐2.98%
Pets and Pet Supplies ‐2.54%
Appliances ‐2.29%
Hair, Dental, Shaving Prod‐
ucts ‐2.10%
Video Disks ‐1.95%
Information Processing ‐1.84%
Living Room and Kitchen
Furniture ‐1.60%
Natural Gas ‐1.50%
Furniture and Bedding ‐1.43%
Internet Services ‐1.28%
Apparel: Menʹs ‐1.20%
Recreational Reading Mate‐
rials ‐1.18%
Video Audio ‐1.13%
Clothing: Women and Girls ‐0.75%
Footwear ‐0.66%
Deflation/Inflation
“I can’t eat an iPad”
The 26 items above from BLS data (compiled by
Economagic) reflect price declines – DEFLATION –
from April 2010 to April 2011.